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Kinsler to Angels for 2 Prospects

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17 minutes ago, chasfh said:

"[A]t least we got a couple of young guys who have a chance to develop" has got to be the weakest endorsement any GM has ever made of a trade they just completed I have ever heard.

"I had no leverage" is by turns an honest assessment of your situation, and a terrible thing to communicate to future trade partners: "Step up, boys, I can be had."

It wasn’t any secret that he had no leverage. I think every GM knows when a team has leverage and when it doesn’t. 

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"We are very pleased with this deal. Hernandez has a special arm and we think he has a chance to be a big contributor down the road.  And Montgomery is a quality ball player who we think will make us more athletic.  We have always liked Kinsler and it wasn't easy to trade him, but it was a situation where we saw an opportunity to make our system stronger in a number of ways.

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6 minutes ago, Shelton said:

It wasn’t any secret that he had no leverage. I think every GM knows when a team has leverage and when it doesn’t. 

Quote

yeah, I laughed when I saw that.  I do give Avila credit for being honest (it's a quality I admire), but he seems more transparent than most GMs.  Maybe too much.    

 

I do sort of wish Al would talk about process less in public. You don't have to be "Dave the Sphinx" but Al sometimes winds awfully close to Van Gundy's "but I have to make you validate my struggles'  neediness.

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11 hours ago, tiger337 said:

yes, this is a real concern.  I know I have been more negative than usual this winter and that is the primary reason.  I probably won't get really excited about the re-build until I see a decent core of position players.  

This. And has been this for years now.

Are there any other organizations besides maybe the Mets that have as high a percentage of eggs in the pitching basket as the Tigers? And even the Mets found room to pick up Amed Rosario. We have nobody even in the same ballpark as Rosario.

The only other organizations with as many pitchers at the top of their prospects lists are the Marlins, an organization in complete disarray, and the Cubs, and that's because they've already completed the elite position player prospect phase of their trajectory. 

It's embarrassing how little attention we've paid to position players who are more likely to fulfill their projections if only because the injury bug is not as strong for them.

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6 minutes ago, Shelton said:

It wasn’t any secret that he had no leverage. I think every GM knows when a team has leverage and when it doesn’t. 

It's also not any secret that Avila is proving the Peter Principle just about every time he makes a move or opens his mouth.

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15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

No "maybe" about it. Way, way too much.

I have a difficult time criticizing honesty and transparency.  

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Just now, tiger337 said:

I have a difficult time criticizing honesty and transparency.  

That's because you don't negotiate for a living. Al Avila does. Or at least he's supposed to.

I would never advocate lying during negotiation. But I would also never advocate being vocally transparent about your weaknesses, either.

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8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

It's also not any secret that Avila is proving the Peter Principle just about every time he makes a move or opens his mouth.

This seems overly cynical.

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12 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Not expecting that for at least a decade.     Please sell the team.   Please.   

So ultimately, are the Illitch family interested in running this team at all? Is this just a temporary payroll shed for the rebuild or is this going to be a long-term thing?

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16 minutes ago, chasfh said:

It's also not any secret that Avila is proving the Peter Principle just about every time he makes a move or opens his mouth.

What I'm waiting to see is the plan to find the better than average players needed to win. Now maybe Avila's approach is exactly in part reactionary to Dave's "SuperStar and scrub" approach, but even so, 40 war distributed over 40 guys is gonna get you nothing, 40 war distributed across 17 or so players puts a winning starting line-up and rotation on the field.

To my mind, were the FO has failed was in the moves like the Verlander trade. The quickest route back to contention was to send more $$ out with the big contracts to bring back *star* young talent. They were not committed enough to do that to the degree they certainly could have and that is what most makes me wonder about this FO's drive to win.

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Just now, Gehringer_2 said:

What I'm waiting to see is the plan to find the better than average players needed to win. Now maybe Avila's approach is exactly in part reactionary to Dave's "SuperStar and scrub" approach, but even so, 40 war distributed over 40 guys is gonna get you nothing, 40 war distributed across 17 or so players puts a winning starting line-up and rotation on the field.

To my mind, were the FO has failed was in the moves like the Verlander trade. The quickest route back to contention was to send more $$ out with the big contracts to bring back *star* young talent. They were not committed enough to do that to the degree they certainly could have and that is what most makes me wonder about this FO.

Or the FO has been told to slash pay-roll, which makes the FO impotent.

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Neil Walker, Howie Kendrick and Brandon Phillips are FAs. Kipnis, Castro, Hernandez, Galvis, Panik, and Profar (maybe) are all on the trading block. Arizona and St Louis both have way too many middle infielders. I think AA was lucky that the Angels were focused on  Kinsler considering all the other choices out there.

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Just now, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Or the FO has been told to slash pay-roll, which makes the FO impotent.

exactly - I include ownership when I say FO. If that kind of penury trumps building a winner, they ain't building a winner.

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3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Yes, I am unimpressed by him and the regime he leads.

I’m sure you have documented this before, but let’s work through it. What specifically are we talking about here? It seems like there are a few moves we could focus on. 

The JD trade

the JV trade

the upton trade

the kinsler trade

the Wilson/Avila trade

 

I think he did well with the JV trade and the Wilson/Avila trade, both of which were examples where he had good leverage  

I don’t think there was much more he could have done with the other trades. I don’t think he did well, but I don’t think he did poorly either. He had very little leverage in these deals, IMO.

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11 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Neil Walker, Howie Kendrick and Brandon Phillips are FAs. Kipnis, Castro, Hernandez, Galvis, Panik, and Profar (maybe) are all on the trading block. Arizona and St Louis both have way too many middle infielders. I think AA was lucky that the Angels were focused on  Kinsler considering all the other choices out there.

Perhaps, although AA being lucky is not necessarily the same as Tiger fans being lucky.

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Kipnis and Castro are more expensive. Walker will be too.

Hernandez will cost a lot more in return. Same for Josh Harrison.

Neither Kendrick or Phillips are starters.

Why would SF trade Panik? Profar hasn't produced.  

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26 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I’m sure you have documented this before, but let’s work through it. What specifically are we talking about here? It seems like there are a few moves we could focus on. 

The JD trade

the JV trade

the upton trade

the kinsler trade

the Wilson/Avila trade

 

I think he did well with the JV trade and the Wilson/Avila trade, both of which were examples where he had good leverage  

I don’t think there was much more he could have done with the other trades. I don’t think he did well, but I don’t think he did poorly either. He had very little leverage in these deals, IMO.

Jordan Zimmermann signing.

Mike Pelfrey signing.

Mark Lowe signing.

Mike Aviles signing.

K-Rod trade.

And this does not count the signings and trades he made that he had to ultimately flip for peanuts. 

All win now moves. All flops. All Avila.


Even setting those aside, I don't think Avila did as well with the JV, JD or J-Up trades as he probably should have. He appears to have done the best with the Avila/Wilson trade, but even making a bunch of random moves, one's gonna hit.

I don't see how Rick Hahn necessarily had any more leverage in Chicago, but he turned similarly valued assets into awesome returns for the White Sox.

And if you were to counter that Avila was operating under more pressure from Ilitch to dump anything he can for whatever he could get while Hahn was not similarly pressured by Reinsdorf, I would counter-counter with this: whether Avila's trades and signings represent the top of his actual abilities, or whether he's a secret trading and signing genius who is simply too constrained by ownership to operate at the top of his abilities, either situation is bad for the Tigers. Because Avila and Ilitch are joined at the hip in this venture, and the failure of either party is ultimately a failure of both parties.

Avila can't fall back on, "it's not my fault, I did the best I could under the circumstances." He's judged by his results, not the circumstances surrounding his actions.

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20 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I’m sure you have documented this before, but let’s work through it. What specifically are we talking about here? It seems like there are a few moves we could focus on. 

The JD trade

the JV trade

the upton trade

the kinsler trade

the Wilson/Avila trade

 

I think he did well with the JV trade and the Wilson/Avila trade, both of which were examples where he had good leverage  

I don’t think there was much more he could have done with the other trades. I don’t think he did well, but I don’t think he did poorly either. He had very little leverage in these deals, IMO.

I agree with you assessment of the deals.  I will add that that I thought he did well with the original Maybin, K-Rod, and Mahtook trades.  Glad he was able to get something even if it's AAA Filler rather than buy out Maybin last year.  

FA wise, I was originally happy with the Upton and Zimmerman signings (hind-sight is definitely different)  didn't like going so early on Pelfrey, understood the Lowe signing (again hind-sight), never got the Aviles signing at all.

I've liked what I've seen of his draft picks.

I don't have full confidence in him, but I definitely don't get the complete almost cynicism of him.  

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2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

 

And if you were to counter that Avila was operating under more pressure from Ilitch to dump anything he can for whatever he could get while Hahn was not similarly pressured by Reinsdorf, I would counter-counter with this: whether Avila's trades and signings represent the top of his actual abilities, or whether he's a secret trading and signing genius who is simply too constrained by ownership to operate at the top of his abilities, either situation is bad for the Tigers. Because Avila and Ilitch are joined at the hip in this venture, and the failure of either party is ultimately a failure of both parties.

 

This. If we are interested in their individual lives as human interest stories, sure, it a fair conversation topic whether Avila or Illitch are making decisions we may not like. But to a Tiger fan looking for a winning team, it's immaterial.

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6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

 

I don't see how Rick Hahn necessarily had any more leverage in Chicago, but he turned similarly valued assets into awesome returns for the White Sox.

 

In no way were the White Sox assets similarly valued to ours.  Sale had 3 years at roughly 1/3 the price of JV.  Eaton had 5 years on an affordable contract.  Those were both worth much more than JV on his contract and especially 1 year (if we traded him last off-season) of JD, or Upton on his deal.

Their relievers were the most comparable to Wilson at the time of the trades, but it took 2 of them and Frazier to get a potentially better haul than we got for Wilson and Avila - and in hind-sight, Wilson was a complete bust for the Cubs last season.

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3 hours ago, Oblong said:

Avila was giving marching orders to trade Kinsler.  Chris Ilitch wants this payroll as low as possible... for some reason.  Every 100K counts.

Either that or it was the smart thing to do.     I fall on the smart thing to do side of the argument.   Kinsler has no place with the Tigers going forward.   Machado will equal or exceed what he produces this year, why wouldn't they make the deal?

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6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Jordan Zimmermann signing.

Mike Pelfrey signing.

Mark Lowe signing.

Mike Aviles signing.

K-Rod trade.

All win now signings. All flops. All Avila.


Even setting those aside, I don't think Avila did as well with the JV, JD or J-Up trades as he probably should have. He appears to have done the best with the Avila/Wilson trade, but even making a bunch of random moves, one's gonna hit.

I don't see how Rick Hahn necessarily had any more leverage in Chicago, but he turned similarly valued assets into awesome returns for the White Sox.

And if you were to counter that Avila was operating under more pressure from Ilitch to dump anything he can for whatever he could get while Hahn was not similarly pressured by Reinsdorf, I would counter-counter with this: whether Avila's trades and signings represent the top of his actual abilities, or whether he's a secret trading and signing genius who is simply too constrained by ownership to operate at the top of his abilities, either situation is bad for the Tigers. Because Avila and Ilitch are joined at the hip in this venture, and the failure of either party is ultimately a failure of both parties.

Avila can't fall back on, "it's not my fault, I did the best I could under the circumstances." He's judged by his results, not the circumstances surrounding his actions.

I wouldn’t counter with that position so. I need to counter-counter. And get out of here with that secret trading and signing genius stuff. I don’t think anyone is arguing that. At least I know I’m not. 

I agree those signings weren’t good. 

I don’t agree that rick Hahn had similarly valued assets. Avila didn’t have an Eaton or sale or Quintana. He has one of those types right now in fulmer. But the other guys he traded were all less valuable than those guys traded by the White Sox, and in some cases substantially less valuable. 

The JD situation sucked. It didn’t help that he was hurt to start the year. It also didn’t help that few contenders had needs in the outfield. I’m sure a lot of them regret not going after JD in hindsight. It also didn’t help that the new CBA took away the first round pick as compensation. That would have at least given them a bit more leverage. 

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