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RedRamage

Wk 12: Vikings vs. Lions: 12:30

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4 minutes ago, JAYB said:

If Seattle loses tonight then yes. 

Running the simulator, as of today the Lions don't have much room for error. But alot can happen in the next 6 weeks. 

The New York Times has their playoff machine up and running, which I find to be a lot more informative than the ESPN machine or 538.

you can see how the odds change by toggling one or more games. 

As of today, it has the lions as a 49% chance of making the playoffs. If we beat the Vikings, it goes up to 64. If we lose, it goes down to 31.

looking at all of the other games to come in the NFL this season, there are not many that move the needle that aren’t lions games. That will change of course as we get closer to the end. 

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1 hour ago, hardyaf said:

I'm most worried about our sudden inability to stop the run. Minnesota loves to run the ball. 

If Minnesota's run game doesn't knock the stuffing out of the defense, the Lions should be as good as gravy. Or pie

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If we beat the Vikings, ravens, bears, and packers and lose to the bucs and bengals, we have a 92% chance, 43% to win the division.

if we lose to the Vikings, we have only a 7% chance to win the division. If we beat the Vikings, we have a 34% chance to win the division. 

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I fully support the Lions right to play a game on Thanksgiving.  I won't have you naysayers saying nay to them doing so.

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I hope the Lions do one of those Up-with-people type celebrations of America at Ford Field.  i hope this year celebrates VA medical systemic abuses against the veteran and the right of cops to crack the heads of punks.

That and a couple Smokey Robinson songs should appeal to Trumpvoter

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55 minutes ago, number20 said:

If they lose on turkey day, stick a fork in them for the division.

Had to say that just for the pun

No doubt that Thursday is a massive game. If we can beat the Vikings I really like our chances.  Vikings have to go to Atlanta and Carolina back to back weeks after thanksgiving.  Have to win on Thursday. 

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The Lions are going to have to play A LOT better to pull this game out.  I know that every week is different but Minnesota has consistently been playing at a contender level ever since Keenum stopped being a game manager pretty much since the Lions game actually.  D needs to tighten it up big time.

This is a must win if they want to stay in the division race.  Tonight is a rough game for wild card chances because either one of Seattle or Atlanta is going to win and with Carolina already owning the tiebreaker, the Lions are in tough for the wild card if they lose.  Pretty much a must win either way although the Wild Card is still somewhat realistic even if they lose, division hopes would be dashed.

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8 hours ago, Shelton said:

The New York Times has their playoff machine up and running, which I find to be a lot more informative than the ESPN machine or 538.

you can see how the odds change by toggling one or more games. 

As of today, it has the lions as a 49% chance of making the playoffs. If we beat the Vikings, it goes up to 64. If we lose, it goes down to 31.

looking at all of the other games to come in the NFL this season, there are not many that move the needle that aren’t lions games. That will change of course as we get closer to the end. 

Yes, but if they only lose 1 other game, their chances are pretty good for the wildcard.

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7 hours ago, NYLion said:

The Lions are going to have to play A LOT better to pull this game out.  I know that every week is different but Minnesota has consistently been playing at a contender level ever since Keenum stopped being a game manager pretty much since the Lions game actually.  D needs to tighten it up big time.

This is a must win if they want to stay in the division race.  Tonight is a rough game for wild card chances because either one of Seattle or Atlanta is going to win and with Carolina already owning the tiebreaker, the Lions are in tough for the wild card if they lose.  Pretty much a must win either way although the Wild Card is still somewhat realistic even if they lose, division hopes would be dashed.

Keenum needs to remember who he is. I am still not sold on him and neither are the Vikings from the sound of things. But they can't replace a guy who keeps winning.

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10 hours ago, NYLion said:

This is a must win if they want to stay in the division race.  

 

10 hours ago, T&P_Fan said:

Have to win on Thursday. 

This is pretty much it, as far as the division is concerned. A Detroit loss on Thursday means the Vikings would have to completely collapse and go 1-4 the rest of the way – with the Bears, Packers, and Bengals still to play. That, and the Lions – with 2 wins in their last 6 games coming against really bad teams with rookie quarterbacks – suddenly rip off 5 in a row and go undefeated the rest of the season. Both of these would have to happen together

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40 minutes ago, MAROTH4MVP said:

Yes, but if they only lose 1 other game, their chances are pretty good for the wildcard.

Oh is that all?

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20 hours ago, hardyaf said:

I like to bring hard hitting analysis. Did you know Stafford and Clayton Kershaw played on the same baseball team?

Holy crap!?  Really?  Why the heck am I just hearing about this now?!?  This is pretty interesting and noteworthy information.  I'm shocking no network has brought this up... 

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19 hours ago, number20 said:

If they lose on turkey day, stick a fork in them for the division.

Had to say that just for the pun

Yup... if the Lions lose and still win out the rest of the way, they would need the Vikings to lose to the Falcons (possible) AND the Panthers (possible) AND one of their last two games, which include a road game in GB and hosting the Bears.

Note: a loss to the Bengals, by itself, would not help the Lions as the Vikings and Lions would be tied, and the Vikings would win the tie.  Both teams would have the same winning percentage in the division, so it would fall to best winning percentage in common games and the Vikings have that.  But a loss to another division opponent by the Vikings would give us the division winning percentage tie breaker.

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1 hour ago, RedRamage said:

Ugh... based on win percentage the Vikings are favorites the rest of the way...

Why is this an “ugh”?

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1 hour ago, RedRamage said:

Ugh... based on win percentage the Vikings are favorites the rest of the way...

The Vikings are the favorites even if the Lions beat them on Thursday, don't think that win percentage is relevant.

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1 hour ago, Shelton said:

Why is this an “ugh”?

Because I want the Vikings to lose?  Obviously winning pct. is just one measure and doesn't mean the Vikings will win.  But I prefer to see a team I want to lose to have as much stacked against them as possible. 

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34 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

It would be reasonably remarkable if the Lions won all 6 division games and didn't win the division.

OH no!! That may be the one damning thing left that the Lions haven't done yet. 

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4 minutes ago, JAYB said:

OH no!! That may be the one damning thing left that the Lions haven't done yet. 

That would certainty fall into an SOL type outcome, but mainly if it had never been done before.  Or maybe only done once in the modern era or something. 

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9 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Because I want the Vikings to lose?  Obviously winning pct. is just one measure and doesn't mean the Vikings will win.  But I prefer to see a team I want to lose to have as much stacked against them as possible. 

I guess I just don’t see why we should care about the ESPN playoff machine winning percentage setting, as it is pretty much useless to project a reasonable or even remotely likely outcome. 

You said it yourself. It doesn’t mean the Vikings will win. 

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13 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I guess I just don’t see why we should care about the ESPN playoff machine winning percentage setting, as it is pretty much useless to project a reasonable or even remotely likely outcome

I think that's taking things too far.  We're a good chunk of the way through the season now and while it's not perfect, I think winning percentage is a reasonably decent measuring stick.  I know I'd much prefer to face a team with a lower winning percentage than one with a higher one.

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Just win the game. 

I tell you what, though, Stafford better have his head in it from the first snap. He cannot cough up the ball in the first or second series against a team like the Vikings who have few weaknesses offensively or defensively. He got away with it against mediocre teams like Arizona and Chicago, but against New Orleans got crushed. The Vikings will crush him too if he can't hang on to the ball. 

I'd like to see more of Stafford on designed roll outs to move the pocket and throw the Vikings pass rush off guard. Like this against Chicago:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000879053/Marvin-Jones-stretches-out-for-28-yard-TD-pass-from-Matthew-Stafford

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36 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

I think that's taking things too far.  We're a good chunk of the way through the season now and while it's not perfect, I think winning percentage is a reasonably decent measuring stick.  I know I'd much prefer to face a team with a lower winning percentage than one with a higher one.

Of course you would. That’s not the point. That predicted result based on comparing winning percentages of the Vikings and their opponents is not remotely reasonable, and that’s not taking it too far. That would mean that the Vikings go 6-0 to finish the season. The odds of that happening are no higher than 5%.

Is it possible? Of course. It that reasonable? Of course not. 

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