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If Miggy Performs well Next year...

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1 hour ago, LooseGoose said:

There's no way the executives that actually work in MLB for a living could have your insight.   Perhaps you should call them and let them know?   (313) 471-2000  Let us know how it goes?

You think hope is insight? That would explain some things. :grin: 

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1 hour ago, Longgone said:

I think the main point here is that people are acting as if the Tigers are behind the curve somehow. You win by having better ballplayers than the other guy. The Tigers former strategy was to acquire high end talent AFTER it was already developed, and that's where they put their resources. By any standard they were successful with that strategy. Now they are changing their approach, and of course analytics will be a part of it, but it's not the end all, be all that some make it out to be.

It’s pretty well documented that the Tigers have long been behind the curve on analytics. Analytics is not the end-all be-all, but no smart, winning organization says it is. It’s a tool in the toolbox, and it’s become increasingly more important.

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4 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Wouldn't surprise me at all. It's big leap from even 'good' video equip to stuff than can resolve 3000 rpm spin accurately enough to be useful. Not to mention I doubt the Tiger's would just let pass a story that they are behind the curve if it weren't true or that JV would fabricate from whole cloth that he had never worked with that kind of video equip before.

And even if the teams had the exact same video equipment, it wouldn’t necessarily mean that their staffs were equally proficient at interpreting the data and turning it into actionable analysis and strategy, generally speaking. The people an organization hires is an important part of whether they do analytics right.

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23 minutes ago, chasfh said:

 

It’s pretty well documented that the Tigers have long been behind the curve on analytics. Analytics is not the end-all be-all, but no smart, winning organization says it is. It’s a tool in the toolbox, and it’s become increasingly more important.

They had a successful ten year run, so hard to see where it was too much of a problem.

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16 minutes ago, Longgone said:

They had a successful ten year run, so hard to see where it was too much of a problem.

You’re right, it didn’t hurt them much during the period 2006-2014. Five playoff appearances, four ALCS appearances, two World Series appearances. That’s a good run for just about any franchise.

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On 11/17/2017 at 6:53 PM, Tenacious D said:

Sadly, you wouldn't get that kind of a return.  I don't want to dump Miggy to save money or get him off the team, but I wouldn't be upset if he is moved.  That changed for me when they traded JV and went into their September tailspin.  It's a different situation now.  I also worry how he'll handle the next 4-5 years of frustration, and doesn't he deserve better?  Just because he has a World Series ring doesn't mean he will, or should, be pleased with losing for the foreseeable future.  Will he embrace being a mentor to a crappy team?

#freeMiggy

 

 

 

#theTigersfromthatcontract

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On 11/18/2017 at 2:43 PM, chasfh said:

Glad to see I’m not the only one thinking this.

I question it.

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I hope Cabrera got the same trainer that helped out Andre Drummond this past offseason.

Yup you can't have the guy in the middle of your lineup not able to hit FT in crunch time

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I have this weird feeling DD comes for Miggy. What's he owed? 6/180? Take Hanley Ramirez and eat 25-50 mil off the back end, get like Sam Travis and BLake Swihart and call it a day. Boston keeps all their good prospects and they avoid a bidding war for JD, Hosmer and co who have plenty of risks as well. 

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7 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

Boston keeps all their good prospects...

This has never been DD’s style. Only a matter of time until he works his majic in Boston. Glad he is there now days.

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On 11/19/2017 at 11:43 AM, Longgone said:

I think the main point here is that people are acting as if the Tigers are behind the curve somehow. You win by having better ballplayers than the other guy. The Tigers former strategy was to acquire high end talent AFTER it was already developed, and that's where they put their resources. By any standard they were successful with that strategy. Now they are changing their approach, and of course analytics will be a part of it, but it's not the end all, be all that some make it out to be.

I agree with the bolded part....but I do think that DD and AA and the Tigers in general missed the boat on developing and utilizing analytical capacity...they could have had their cake (win now with proven veterans) and ate it too (better strategic development and tactical decision-making).  

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On 11/18/2017 at 2:58 PM, chasfh said:

Put me in the “might as well keep Miggy” column. I would like to think that 2017 was an injury-caused anomaly than a step off the cliff.

I think there are a couple encouraging signs that it might have been a fluke: his BABIP took a sudden drop to an all-time low; his hard hit % and line drive % both actually ticked up; his HR/FB took a dive this year; and although his K% jumped sharply, a lot of that is due to a jump in backwards Ks. His contact rate this past season was close to career norms—he just has to lay off those pitches outside the zone, swinging at which may have been a manifestation of his overall frustration with his season, and his zeal to just make something happen.

I’m pretty optimistic he’ll have a much better year at the plate in 2018, and I’m cautiously optimistic that he will be back to hitting at All-Star level next year. 

Besides, there is no way I would trust this regime to get full value in trade.

Agreed generally, however his major crash came from an inability to turn on the fastball, especially up + in.  Eventually it got bad enough where he couldn't even get on a fastball to create a single or an oppo-field gapper. 

I simply cannot believe that management let him continue to play.  Earlier rest/intervention/surgery means earlier recovery and a better chance at a faster recovery.  Playing him all year long represented a failure of management.  

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1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

Agreed generally, however his major crash came from an inability to turn on the fastball, especially up + in.  Eventually it got bad enough where he couldn't even get on a fastball to create a single or an oppo-field gapper. 

I simply cannot believe that management let him continue to play.  Earlier rest/intervention/surgery means earlier recovery and a better chance at a faster recovery.  Playing him all year long represented a failure of management.  

I agree. The $64 question is, is it a timing issue compounded by frustration, or is he falling off the cliff?

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2 hours ago, sabretooth said:

I agree with the bolded part....but I do think that DD and AA and the Tigers in general missed the boat on developing and utilizing analytical capacity...they could have had their cake (win now with proven veterans) and ate it too (better strategic development and tactical decision-making).  

absolutely.... the team had trouble finding basic replacement level guys for several positions... and a bullpen.  They didn't need a great bullpen.  Just an average one.  The same kind that 2/3 of the league had.  If they did that they'd have won a title and not sacrificed decent players to get players like Alfredo Simon.

That's why I never bought the argument that the predicament we're in now is due to signing FA and losing picks.  

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I agree. The $64 question is, is it a timing issue compounded by frustration, or is he falling off the cliff?

I suspect both.....my hope is that somehow he can build core strength around the injured area, utilize pain management effectively, and get to a point where he can recover his hitting to a productive level.  Even the last few years of Pujols with LAA would be better than what we saw in 2017.

If surgery is required so be it, but if he can recover without it so much the better.

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55 minutes ago, Oblong said:

absolutely.... the team had trouble finding basic replacement level guys for several positions... and a bullpen.  They didn't need a great bullpen.  Just an average one.  The same kind that 2/3 of the league had.  If they did that they'd have won a title and not sacrificed decent players to get players like Alfredo Simon.

That's why I never bought the argument that the predicament we're in now is due to signing FA and losing picks.  

Totally agree

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From 2009 to 2015 they essentially didn't have a first round pick due to FA or wasting them on relievers.   

Couple that with the fact that other teams were taking advantage of the old compensation system which put us even further behind the 8 ball.  For example in 2011 the Rays had 11 picks before we had our 1st one.  

DD was so behind the curve it wasn't even funny,  when other teams are getting multiple picks in the top 50 before you even pick (and when you did pick it was on a reliever) it's impossible to build a competitive system.  That's why other teams had above average "replacement" players and we had crap.

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13 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

From 2009 to 2015 they essentially didn't have a first round pick due to FA or wasting them on relievers.   

Couple that with the fact that other teams were taking advantage of the old compensation system which put us even further behind the 8 ball.  For example in 2011 the Rays had 11 picks before we had our 1st one.  

DD was so behind the curve it wasn't even funny,  when other teams are getting multiple picks in the top 50 before you even pick (and when you did pick it was on a reliever) it's impossible to build a competitive system.  That's why other teams had above average "replacement" players and we had crap.

Yeah - they had a good run but they ate their seed corn to do it. I always viewed DD's philosophy as being that Ilitch was willing to buy him out of the cost of a gutted system via above slot draft and FA purchases. But the league put and end to out of slot signings and the FA costs finally pushed up against the immovable object of the luxury tax - party over.

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3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

From 2009 to 2015 they essentially didn't have a first round pick due to FA or wasting them on relievers.   

Couple that with the fact that other teams were taking advantage of the old compensation system which put us even further behind the 8 ball.  For example in 2011 the Rays had 11 picks before we had our 1st one.  

DD was so behind the curve it wasn't even funny,  when other teams are getting multiple picks in the top 50 before you even pick (and when you did pick it was on a reliever) it's impossible to build a competitive system.  That's why other teams had above average "replacement" players and we had crap.

Pretty close. They got Jacob Turner in 09. They got Hill in 14 and Burrows in 15.

Turner was a bust tho. And Crawford looked like a reliever when they took him in 13.

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3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

From 2009 to 2015 they essentially didn't have a first round pick due to FA or wasting them on relievers.   

The facts don't track at all with what you're saying here.

2009: Jacob Turner (not a reliever, traded for Anibal Sanchez in 2012, which worked out great for us)++

2010: Nick Castellanos (not a reliever, worked out well for us)+

2010: Chance Ruffin (was a reliever, but was traded for Fister, which worked out great for us)++

2011: no pick (b/c of FA VMart, but this "trade" worked out well.....we traded potential future talent for the guy we needed "now", and Victor delivered, giving us 2 great seasons that got us into the playoffs both times and 2 good seasons including an ALCS run in 2013 and a one-game near-miss of the playoffs in 2016)++

2012: no pick (b/c of FA Fielder, this "trade" again worked out very well, we got two very good years of Fielder with a WS and ALCS run and 4 good years of Ian after Fielder)++

2013: J. Crawford (not a reliever, traded in the disastrous A. Simon debacle - OK this was a disaster)BLECH

2014: Derek Hill (Outfielder, not a reliever...not a great prospect, seems like a bad 1st round pick, but that's not the fault of any trades or FA DD made)MEH

2015: Christin Stewart (Outfielder, not a reliever....like D. Hill, not a great prospect, but again, not the result of a bad trade or FA acquisition)MEH

Bottom line: we made three selections of position players and one worked out well enough (Nick C) and two seem underwhelming but that's the nature of late-round picks; we turned two pitchers (Turner and Ruffin) into gold with trades for Anibal and Fister; and we turned two 1st round picks into FA gold with Victor and Prince, who helped us get to the ALCS mutiple times and the WS.

DD's 1st round picks seem to have worked out fine.  His overall drafting and development of players wasn't effective, but I blame a lack of sound development and a poor use of metrics as much as anything for that.

 

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in the four years spanning 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012, the guys we acquired in the 1st round (Nick C) or in exchange for 1st round picks (Anibal, Fister, VMart, Fielder, Ian) gave us over 15 combined years of plus performance, 4 playoff appearances (2011 - 2014), 3 ALCS appearances and a WS appearance.

That is four awesome and well-timed 1st round outcomes.  Good job DD!

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