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If Miggy Performs well Next year...

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On 11/17/2017 at 10:14 AM, Yoda said:

That's a hazardous "if", considering the coaching staff and player development guys. Talk is one thing. Actions are another. I don't see a team at all committed to analytics. We'll see. 

Glad to see I’m not the only one thinking this.

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Put me in the “might as well keep Miggy” column. I would like to think that 2017 was an injury-caused anomaly than a step off the cliff.

I think there are a couple encouraging signs that it might have been a fluke: his BABIP took a sudden drop to an all-time low; his hard hit % and line drive % both actually ticked up; his HR/FB took a dive this year; and although his K% jumped sharply, a lot of that is due to a jump in backwards Ks. His contact rate this past season was close to career norms—he just has to lay off those pitches outside the zone, swinging at which may have been a manifestation of his overall frustration with his season, and his zeal to just make something happen.

I’m pretty optimistic he’ll have a much better year at the plate in 2018, and I’m cautiously optimistic that he will be back to hitting at All-Star level next year. 

Besides, there is no way I would trust this regime to get full value in trade.

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5 hours ago, chasfh said:

Glad to see I’m not the only one thinking this.

There could be stuff happening behind the scenes that we don't know about, but I don't see it either. 

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how the heck would any of us know if the oganization is "committed to analytics"?  what does that even mean?

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I expressed my concern over their commitment to analytics in the off-season thread.  I understand that it takes time and all that.  Yet non of the moves so far seem to be very pedestrian.  Like thy are done to please newspaper columnists. 

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30 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I expressed my concern over their commitment to analytics in the off-season thread.  I understand that it takes time and all that.  Yet non of the moves so far seem to be very pedestrian.  Like thy are done to please newspaper columnists. 

I don't know if being behind in analytics is going to be a major problem for them short term, I don't see them being very active in trades or FA where the data needed for input is available. To take the most extreme case, if  you are down in Venezuela scouting a 16 yr old how much ball spin out the hand or velocity off the bat data are you going to get? A few colleges are starting to install equipment, minor league parks as well. then again, in the case of the minor league parks, are teams making that data available to anyone but themselves? Good metrics on minor league player is important, but I think for this org that is still a secondary objective to getting better talent into the system at the bottom end.

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14 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I don't know if being behind in analytics is going to be a major problem for them short term, I don't see them being very active in trades or FA where the data needed for input is available. To take the most extreme case, if  you are down in Venezuela scouting a 16 yr old how much ball spin out the hand or velocity off the bat data are you going to get? A few colleges are starting to install equipment, minor league parks as well. then again, in the case of the minor league parks, are teams making that data available to anyone but themselves? Good metrics on minor league player is important, but I think for this org that is still a secondary objective to getting better talent into the system at the bottom end.

It's not that some clubs use "analytics" and others don't, every club has tons of data at it's disposal, whether developed in house or purchased. Some clubs are more sophisticated than others and some use data a little differently. Data analysis can give you an edge and enhance scouting and player development, but it doesn't replace any of the basic tenets of building a club. I think the difference between clubs data analyzing capabilities, and it's importance is being overstated. Baseball is a small select community, and there are really no secrets, if something works, it is soon assimilated.

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2 hours ago, Buddha said:

how the heck would any of us know if the oganization is "committed to analytics"?  what does that even mean?

Are the Astros committed to analytics? I think you can get hints based on who they hire for the analytics staff.  A few years ago, they seemed to have a bare bones staff headed by some guy with a degree in political science (or something like that) and little experience.  Since then, they have had more sophisticated hires but there also seems to be a lot of turnover.   

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30 minutes ago, Longgone said:

It's not that some clubs use "analytics" and others don't, every club has tons of data at it's disposal, whether developed in house or purchased. Some clubs are more sophisticated than others and some use data a little differently. Data analysis can give you an edge and enhance scouting and player development, but it doesn't replace any of the basic tenets of building a club. I think the difference between clubs data analyzing capabilities, and it's importance is being overstated. Baseball is a small select community, and there are really no secrets, if something works, it is soon assimilated.

If all teams are pretty much the same, then wouldn't a small edge in some area potentially make a significant difference?

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22 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

If all teams are pretty much the same, then wouldn't a small edge in some area potentially make a significant difference?

indeed, but I would think not all edges are of same value to all teams, depending on where they are in whatever you want to describe as some kind of development cycle. The edge that gives you the most differential value is the one that addresses where you are currently weakest or have to make a change. If you have a well stocked farm system or ML quality players backed up at the same position and are looking to make trades, then really getting under the covers of high MiLB and MLB players' skills in terms of their specific value to your team, it's style of play and ballpark, is probably pretty huge - and a pretty pure analytics play I would think. OTOH, if your organization's biggest need is at the back end of the pipeline where much less data is available, then at least for now, you better still find some guys who can give you a reasonable 1st order estimate of whether that 16yr old kid can play or not without having a computer in front of them. For a team like the Tigers - who are not in that trading position, I would say where lack of analytics hurts the most is the lost coaching enhancement - e.g., the Verlander story of this year - that's an area where any team, regardless of status, can put better data and analysis to good use. But if the Tigers aren't ready to win for 3-4 yrs anyway, a year or so to get up to speed on that isn't going to hurt them much - may even help make next year's pick better.....LOL

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5 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

indeed, but I would think not all edges are of same value to all teams, depending on where they are in whatever you want to describe as some kind of development cycle. The edge that gives you the most differential value is the one that addresses where you are currently weakest or have to make a change. If you have a well stocked farm system or ML quality players backed up at the same position and are looking to make trades, then really getting under the covers of high MiLB and MLB players' skills in terms of their specific value to your team, it's style of play and ballpark, is probably pretty huge - and a pretty pure analytics play I would think. OTOH, if your organization's biggest need is at the back end of the pipeline where much less data is available, then at least for now, you better still find some guys who can give you a reasonable 1st order estimate of whether that 16yr old kid can play or not without having a computer in front of them. For a team like the Tigers - who are not in that trading position, I would say where lack of analytics hurts the most is the lost coaching enhancement - e.g., the Verlander story of this year - that's an area where any team, regardless of status, can put better data and analysis to good use. But if the Tigers aren't ready to win for 3-4 yrs anyway, a year or so to get up to speed on that isn't going to hurt them much - may even help make next year's pick better.....LOL

I think the Verlander story was bogus, he made his adjustments well before the trade. The idea that the Tigers don't use high tech cameras is ludicrous. 

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6 hours ago, tiger337 said:

If all teams are pretty much the same, then wouldn't a small edge in some area potentially make a significant difference?

It's always better to have more information, but there is a point of diminishing returns. You don't want to lose focus on the other factors like scouting and player development. I would rather excel in the latter, whereas Houston, for example, has featured analytics at the expense of scouting. So far it's worked...

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2 hours ago, Longgone said:

I think the Verlander story was bogus, he made his adjustments well before the trade. The idea that the Tigers don't use high tech cameras is ludicrous. 

Wouldn't surprise me at all. It's big leap from even 'good' video equip to stuff than can resolve 3000 rpm spin accurately enough to be useful. Not to mention I doubt the Tiger's would just let pass a story that they are behind the curve if it weren't true or that JV would fabricate from whole cloth that he had never worked with that kind of video equip before.

I will agree that it probably is bogus that it was adjustment to his slider once in Houston that made the major difference in his pitching. He's always had different sliders in his pocket and JV is always cagey and misdirecting about that kind of info about his pitching. I can believe that part of the story was mostly JV's way to pat Houston on the back for the effort. The reality all year had been that his effectiveness fell and then improved (yes - before the trade) primarily because of changes to his fast ball. After he got his arm angle back to it's traditional slot (he had made changes early in the season he had to undo) and the spin rate and angle on the fast ball got back where they should have been, the contrast to all his other pitches was better and the whole package got more effective. With JV everything has always keyed off his FB and its S&M rate.

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Fangraphs had an article proving he made the adjustment in the summer.  They zoomed in on his grips.  He was dealing pretty good as a tiger... hence the trade in the first place. Maybe there was something else they found and kept it a secret. 

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3 hours ago, Longgone said:

It's always better to have more information, but there is a point of diminishing returns. You don't want to lose focus on the other factors like scouting and player development. I would rather excel in the latter, whereas Houston, for example, has featured analytics at the expense of scouting. So far it's worked...

Why does analytics have to be at the expense of scouting?  Ideally, they work in tandem.  

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

Why does analytics have to be at the expense of scouting?  Ideally, they work in tandem.  

I hope the Tigers know this.

I'm being serious.

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22 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I hope the Tigers know this.

I'm being serious.

There's no way the executives that actually work in MLB for a living could have your insight.   Perhaps you should call them and let them know?   (313) 471-2000  Let us know how it goes?

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28 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Why does analytics have to be at the expense of scouting?  Ideally, they work in tandem.  

They always have, but some clubs, Houston for example, have reduced scouting while increasingly relying on "analytics" .

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35 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Why does analytics have to be at the expense of scouting?  Ideally, they work in tandem.  

Budgets. In the end, everything in a business comes at the expense of something else.

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8 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Budgets. In the end, everything in a business comes at the expense of something else.

But if you cut one, the other one is hurt too.  

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16 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

He's already getting in the best shape of his life.....

Miguel Cabrera instantly sheds weight working with LeBron James' trainer

 

who knows - it might work. I think a lot of jocks working independently can't resist the temptation to train for 'show' strength - e.g. bench and leg press numbers  - that may end up hurting more than it helps, esp as they get older. 

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29 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

But if you cut one, the other one is hurt too.  

I think the main point here is that people are acting as if the Tigers are behind the curve somehow. You win by having better ballplayers than the other guy. The Tigers former strategy was to acquire high end talent AFTER it was already developed, and that's where they put their resources. By any standard they were successful with that strategy. Now they are changing their approach, and of course analytics will be a part of it, but it's not the end all, be all that some make it out to be.

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2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

They have said as much.

I know, I saw and heard those words, too.

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