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John_Brian_K

Week 9: Lions @ Packers Monday Night 8:30pm ESPN

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Also on the topic of kick returns... I want to find a highlight of that hit my Killabrew.  That was a thing of beauty.

Yes!!!

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11 hours ago, hardyaf said:

Honestly, I would like to apologize to JBK. I realized, in the 4th when they were up 3 scores against Brett Hundley i was 80% sure they would lose after the GB Touchdown. And I tout myself as the stats guy (indeed, I run a stats website based on the same expected value stuff we talk about), who doesn't care about the past. And I am by far the biggest Stafford slappy here. So, no matter how the rest of the season goes, I promise not to slam SOL types. Because I too, had a moment tonight.

 

But we can all agree: Screw the Packers. Welcome to 4-12. Yeah, it will make you better long run, but enjoy the pain of being awful, at least once in your lifetime (assuming most grew up with farve in their formative years).

Hahahah no need to apologize.  SOL is a weird thing that is hard to define.  I had that feeling as well, but it subsided when they actually went down the field and scored and did not turn the ball over.  An SOL loss last night would have been them turning the ball over on the drive and GB scoring to make it a 1 possession game with like a minute left and managing to win even though we dominated them all game long.

IIRC (I was tired from a day of travelling) they were close to giving the ball away on that final scoring drive...I held my breath more than once.

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51 minutes ago, Shelton said:

2 yards on average per drive is nothing. 

For the record, I agree that kicking it right to the goal line is good. But I don’t think last night produced anything substantial. 

I just can’t get too worked up either way about this. 

Not getting worked up really, I was just responding to the original person who asked why Martin wasn't booting them through the endzone.

And no, 2 yards per drive is nothing, but....

1. That's an average which means some while a couple of times they went past the 25, most times they were stopped short of it by MORE than 2 yards.

2. It's still something easy to do that, at least last night, resulted in a net 19 yard advantage to your team, so why not do it?  We're not talking major changes to personal or serious effort put into the change.  It's a simple, minor adjustment which gains you a slight advantage.

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12 hours ago, Jason_R said:


It’s a little bit of a different thing when you’re talking about a college guy with a 3,000 yard, 39 TD season, don’t you think?

Abdullah is not a good player.

That's why Barry Sanders was 3rd overall and Abdullah 54th. Seems weird not to draft a RB based on height. 

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7 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Not getting worked up really, I was just responding to the original person who asked why Martin wasn't booting them through the endzone.

And no, 2 yards per drive is nothing, but....

1. That's an average which means some while a couple of times they went past the 25, most times they were stopped short of it by MORE than 2 yards.

2. It's still something easy to do that, at least last night, resulted in a net 19 yard advantage to your team, so why not do it?  We're not talking major changes to personal or serious effort put into the change.  It's a simple, minor adjustment which gains you a slight advantage.

Well, one reason not to do it is that you screw up your coverage and the returner busts a long return and starts the drive at the 50. Or you shank it a bit and it lands at the 10 and it’s an easy return to the 30 or 35. 

If it is done right and the coverage is good, then it definitely helps if the team is starting on the 20 every drive instead of the 25. At some point that could mean a 55 yard FG attempt instead of a 50 yarder. 

But still, while it worked out last night, did it ultimately have an effect on either team scoring? I don’t know.

For all we know going forward, the one kick that gets returned to the 30 could allow the opponent to reach field goal range on that drive.

if you can do it well enough that you never give up the big return, then by all means do it. But I can also see the benefit to booting it into or through the end zone and allowing them to start at the 25 every time. I think football games are more often decided by big plays rather than an accumulation of a handful of yards of starting field position. 

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16 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

That's why Barry Sanders was 3rd overall and Abdullah 54th. Seems weird not to draft a RB based on height. 

Maybe you want your team to have players who are smaller than average and slower than average. I'd like my team to have players who are bigger than average and faster than average.

If my team is going to trade size for speed, then by all means give me a small RB who runs a 4.37 40-yard dash. Abdullah ran it in 4.6. 

Drafted after Abdullah:

Tevin Coleman (pick 73; 5'11"/206, 4.39)

David Johnson (pick 86; 6'1"/224, 4.50)

Jay Ajayi (pick 149; 6'0"/221, 4.57)

 

I don't care if you like Abdullah, I'll just point out he is small, fragile, not terribly fast, and there were multiple better options on the board when he was picked. I think he was yet another bad pick by Mayhew, who didn't have a good drafting strategy or good scouting.

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47 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

Maybe you want your team to have players who are smaller than average and slower than average. I'd like my team to have players who are bigger than average and faster than average.

If my team is going to trade size for speed, then by all means give me a small RB who runs a 4.37 40-yard dash. Abdullah ran it in 4.6. 

Drafted after Abdullah:

Tevin Coleman (pick 73; 5'11"/206, 4.39)

David Johnson (pick 86; 6'1"/224, 4.50)

Jay Ajayi (pick 149; 6'0"/221, 4.57)

 

I don't care if you like Abdullah, I'll just point out he is small, fragile, not terribly fast, and there were multiple better options on the board when he was picked. I think he was yet another bad pick by Mayhew, who didn't have a good drafting strategy or good scouting.

Fwiw he missed no games in college and forced the most missed tackles in college football his final year. So he wasn't necessarily straight line fast, but he was elusive as **** and not seen as fragile.

also ftr, I wanted Johnson on draft day, haha

 

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3 hours ago, Shelton said:

Maybe. I don’t know. I’m only talking about yesterday. 

True, but there's also a chance of a turnover or penalty backing them up further.

Given that there have been 0 TD returns on kickoffs in the entire league this season (unless there was one this weekend I missed) it seems a good risk

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It would seem like college football is a game, given the sometimes large talent disparities between teams on special teams and shorter amount of field to cover, where it may make more sense to intentionally kick it a yard or two short of the end zone provided your kicker can get lots of hang time.  I'm not sure about the NFL.

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4 hours ago, Shelton said:

Well, one reason not to do it is that you screw up your coverage and the returner busts a long return and starts the drive at the 50. Or you shank it a bit and it lands at the 10 and it’s an easy return to the 30 or 35. 

If it is done right and the coverage is good, then it definitely helps if the team is starting on the 20 every drive instead of the 25. At some point that could mean a 55 yard FG attempt instead of a 50 yarder. 

But still, while it worked out last night, did it ultimately have an effect on either team scoring? I don’t know.

For all we know going forward, the one kick that gets returned to the 30 could allow the opponent to reach field goal range on that drive.

if you can do it well enough that you never give up the big return, then by all means do it. But I can also see the benefit to booting it into or through the end zone and allowing them to start at the 25 every time. I think football games are more often decided by big plays rather than an accumulation of a handful of yards of starting field position. 

It would be a wonderful problem to have continue. We score so much, so often, all the fans can discuss is how deep our 6 or 7 kickoffs go. I love winning and I love it even better when it's unexpected. 😉

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34 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

It would be a wonderful problem to have continue. We score so much, so often, all the fans can discuss is how deep our 6 or 7 kickoffs go. I love winning and I love it even better when it's unexpected. 😉

I’m just happy we used the right voodoo dolls to overcome the mystique. 😛

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3 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I’m just happy we used the right voodoo dolls to overcome the mystique. 😛

Seriously, it bums me out a little to see how good they can play. We should have won either the Pittsburgh or the Saints game, if we were a good team. Maybe Green Bay is worse then we thought? They we're out-coached and out played. A perfect win.

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Gotta give the PFF breakdown of the week.

WR is turning into a real strength.  Our top 3 WRs all grade basically as strong #2s. Marvin is on fire obviously.

Spence has fallen off a ton since Ngata's injury. Robinson has stepped up big time though at least.

In a system where a 70 grade is considered bare minimum for a starter, Glasgow started out over he first 5-6 games as a 50 and has worked his grade up to a now 75. He's been huge against Pitt and GB. Swanson blows but the OL is in pretty damn good shape if Decker comes back and is functional

Hayden hasn't been good, but his play has improved to the point of being below average rather than a liability. Lawson is a liability though and so is Wilson.

Davis is grading horrible so far, JRM too.

Quin is an all pro, Stafford got his grade back up and is now he #13 QB. Tied with Cousins, decimal points behind Dak and Ben.

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Interesting to me is that it seems the converted D-Lineman or whoever we have at LT has seemed like a massive upgrade over Robinson through two games

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1 hour ago, Nastradamus said:

Gotta give the PFF breakdown of the week.

WR is turning into a real strength.  Our top 3 WRs all grade basically as strong #2s. Marvin is on fire obviously.

Spence has fallen off a ton since Ngata's injury. Robinson has stepped up big time though at least.

In a system where a 70 grade is considered bare minimum for a starter, Glasgow started out over he first 5-6 games as a 50 and has worked his grade up to a now 75. He's been huge against Pitt and GB. Swanson blows but the OL is in pretty damn good shape if Decker comes back and is functional

Hayden hasn't been good, but his play has improved to the point of being below average rather than a liability. Lawson is a liability though and so is Wilson.

Davis is grading horrible so far, JRM too.

Quin is an all pro, Stafford got his grade back up and is now he #13 QB. Tied with Cousins, decimal points behind Dak and Ben.

Good info.

So 4-4 with what looks like an easy schedule the rest of the way. What's the upside here, a division title and a playoff win?

I do think they'll surpass my preseason 8-8 prediction.

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39 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

Interesting to me is that it seems the converted D-Lineman or whoever we have at LT has seemed like a massive upgrade over Robinson through two games

That's really surprised me. I don't even know his name, but the white dude, #72 I think.

I have no evidence for this, but I tend to believe some of this plug and play action is the result of the front office and the coaching staff/scheme having some continuity. And also not being Matt Millen, nor one who was trained or hired by Matt Millen.

Yeah the dude isn't an all-pro, but he's a lot more than you'd expect out of a backup to the backup.

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Good info.
So 4-4 with what looks like an easy schedule the rest of the way. What's the upside here, a division title and a playoff win?
I do think they'll surpass my preseason 8-8 prediction.

Browns. W. 5-4
@Bears. W. 6-4
Vikings. Thanksgiving. W. 7-4
@ Ravens. W. 8-4
@ Bucs. Will Winston play? W. 9-4
Bears. W. 10-4
@ Bengals. Cold. L. 10-5
Packers. Lions rout. 11-5.

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upside is 10 wins and division win / home playoff game (win)

or they could lose to the browns and end the season.  Can go either way.

I honestly think they can run the table as crazy as that sounds and win a home playoff game vs. Seattle or Cowboys.

 

And Abdullah is fricken horrible.  Any debate about that is crazy.  He breaks 0 tackles he is slow and always seems to pick the wrong hole.  He's horrible.  If we had a big strong back we had 2 more wins.

 

 

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  If we had a big strong back we had 2 more wins.

Truth. It kills me that Adrian Peterson was available.

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10 minutes ago, Jason_R said:


Truth. It kills me that Adrian Peterson was available.

Peterson, Blount, Ajai, .... should have tried for carlos Hyde, Chris Ivory, ....

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1 hour ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Good info.

So 4-4 with what looks like an easy schedule the rest of the way. What's the upside here, a division title and a playoff win?

I do think they'll surpass my preseason 8-8 prediction.

Yah, I think the analytics and stats would suggest we should win 5-6 more games and contend for the civision. In Chicago, Baltimore and Minny will be tough. Gotta beat Minny

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2 hours ago, pyrotigers said:

Interesting to me is that it seems the converted D-Lineman or whoever we have at LT has seemed like a massive upgrade over Robinson through two games

He's only graded slightly better, but they've rolled stafford away from him, given Mehalik help and Glasgow's better play is probably a factor there. Still, being an upgrade on the guy we traded for is a nice bonus, even if a small amount.

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He's only graded slightly better, but they've rolled stafford away from him, given Mehalik help and Glasgow's better play is probably a factor there. Still, being an upgrade on the guy we traded for is a nice bonus, even if a small amount.

I wonder how much of Glasgow’s improvement is the subtraction of Robinson.

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