Jump to content

John_Brian_K

Week 8: Lions -v- Steelers Sunday Night 8:30pm NBC

Recommended Posts

35 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

I'm sure going for it on 4th down from their own 25 yard line would have changed that. The bot appears to only look at 'would they make it' as opposed to 'what are the benefits of then having first and 10 at your own 26 yard line' which are obviously so low as to be not worth even a tiny risk of not making it.

Anyway, the Lions are a ridiculously terrible short yardage team, with a great kicker, so it's probably stupid for them to go for it in almost any situation in field goal range.

From Birkett/the Freep

 

 

To be fair, a) I gave the numbers at 30%, going for it was still a wash. B) it's super unlikely the Lions are this bad in short yardage. Anyone know the worst % in short yardage a team has finished a season at?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, hardyaf said:

Additionally, I challenge the assumption that going for it is wrong. Where is your data? I'm not saying the bot is right, but simply doing something because it's what all coaches would do is assanine. I'm assuming the bot is taking into account probability of converting as well as expected value of field position in either side. 

 

Just curious how you can claim the bot is wrong if (assuming here since again im not familiar with the bot) the math says it's right? Again, the math guys were right in mlb, NBA. It presumes there are probably math guys right here too.

Again, I know nothing about this bot and have no intention to defend it.

There are actual analytics that do what you're suggesting, and none of them would say go for it on your own 11 up 1 score. This bot is real dumb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

There are actual analytics that do what you're suggesting, and none of them would say go for it on your own 11 up 1 score. This bot is real dumb

I think pretty much all of those analytics say to go for it on 4th and 1 pretty much wherever you are on the field (assuming it is not an end of game situation).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Shelton said:

I think pretty much all of those analytics say to go for it on 4th and 1 pretty much wherever you are on the field (assuming it is not an end of game situation).

Any actual analytic I have seen takes into account expected point values. Even if there's only a 20% chance you get stopped the point value for a 1st and 10 at your own 12 is still almost nothing compared to the opponent having 1st and 10 at the 11

Most of these things say you should always go for it from the 50-opponent's 30 or so, and from deeper into your own territory the later into the game and further behind you fall.

Up 8 is not that time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

Any actual analytic I have seen takes into account expected point values. Even if there's only a 20% chance you get stopped the point value for a 1st and 10 at your own 12 is still almost nothing compared to the opponent having 1st and 10 at the 11

Most of these things say you should always go for it from the 50-opponent's 30 or so, and from deeper into your own territory the later into the game and further behind you fall.

Up 8 is not that time.

I’ll see if I can find the link again. It was based on expected points. The thing about 4th and 1 is that the chance of converting is pretty high on average. 

You are correct that the expected points for a team at their own 12 is not high, and that the expected points for the other team at your 12 is high. I don’t have the numbers handy, but let’s say it is 1 point for you if you convert and it is 5 points for the other team if you fail. If the chance of converting is 75%, then it’s .75 points for you against 1.25 points for the opposition. 

If you punt and they start on their 40, that’s something like 1.5 points for them. 

I’m sure I have something wrong there on the expected points because it is not a difference of -.5 to go for it and -1.5 by punting. It is closer to a wash. 

The score at the time isn’t highly relevant as long as there is a fair amount of time left on the clock. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/30/2017 at 8:58 AM, John_Brian_K said:

No.  He needs to play like he played last night.  He has not been good.  You have not been around a lot.  I am one of the biggest Stafford fans/supporters on this site.  That doe snot mean I am going to defend his crap play.  He had a QBR of like 85 which is not horrific, but it is not good either.

QBR is a **** system.  Does it factor in things like a garbage OL, garbage running game, drops, stupid head coach, moron o Coordinator, etc?  My point is, he is a superstar.  Probably only 5 or 6 teams who wouldnt take him over their current QB,  so he would kill it for a good organization.  Maybe I defend him too much but when I see guys like Mike Glennon get 70 millon dollars it tells me never to take a good QB for granted and the Lions have one.   If you think he is garbage I wonder what you thought of guys like Kitna. Orlovsky, Harrington, etc.  3 to 1 td to int ratio is pretty good all things considered.  But hey if that's garbage I guess I dont know what im talking about. 

I feel bad for him.. I kind of think he should have held them hostage like Kirk Cousins is doing.  He re-signed too fast.  Now hes stuck at this **** organization for his prime years.  What a shame.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, RJBBREZ said:

QBR is a **** system.  Does it factor in things like a garbage OL, garbage running game, drops, stupid head coach, moron o Coordinator, etc?  My point is, he is a superstar.  Probably only 5 or 6 teams who wouldnt take him over their current QB,  so he would kill it for a good organization.  Maybe I defend him too much but when I see guys like Mike Glennon get 70 millon dollars it tells me never to take a good QB for granted and the Lions have one.   If you think he is garbage I wonder what you thought of guys like Kitna. Orlovsky, Harrington, etc.  3 to 1 td to int ratio is pretty good all things considered.  But hey if that's garbage I guess I dont know what im talking about. 

I feel bad for him.. I kind of think he should have held them hostage like Kirk Cousins is doing.  He re-signed too fast.  Now hes stuck at this **** organization for his prime years.  What a shame.  

I do not think he is garbage...far from it...I was the one saying he was a top 3 QB a couple years ago...TOP 3!  So far this season minus a couple games (last week was a real good one from him IMO) he has not been good.  He has looked bad.  I can still think him a good QB and think he has played crappy lately.  The O line is his biggest problem right now I get that, but he needs to be below average to bad with a bad o line not turrible like he has been.  I am not expecting perfect games from him with that o line, but I am expecting mediocre games.  Not fumbling the ball and looking like a kid out there.  He has looked like crap minus a couple games.  I never said he was garbage or that I would rather have someone else.  I like him A LOT.  A **** of a lot more than the average fan.  He has been a god send to this team, but lately he has been struggling.  

I expect that to change, but it does not change the fact he has been pretty bad so far this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I do not think he is garbage...far from it...I was the one saying he was a top 3 QB a couple years ago...TOP 3!  So far this season minus a couple games (last week was a real good one from him IMO) he has not been good.  He has looked bad.  I can still think him a good QB and think he has played crappy lately.  The O line is his biggest problem right now I get that, but he needs to be below average to bad with a bad o line not turrible like he has been.  I am not expecting perfect games from him with that o line, but I am expecting mediocre games.  Not fumbling the ball and looking like a kid out there.  He has looked like crap minus a couple games.  I never said he was garbage or that I would rather have someone else.  I like him A LOT.  A **** of a lot more than the average fan.  He has been a god send to this team, but lately he has been struggling.  
I expect that to change, but it does not change the fact he has been pretty bad so far this year.

He is being called on to do too much and it has hurt his performance. Against the Saints he gave up 14 points on fumbles. First one he couldn’t find anybody open and held the ball in the end zone. Second one, Riddick blew the hot route and Stafford’s pocket got picked. Yes, he was hung out to dry both times, but also, he has to protect the ball.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, John_Brian_K said:

I do not think he is garbage...far from it...I was the one saying he was a top 3 QB a couple years ago...TOP 3!  So far this season minus a couple games (last week was a real good one from him IMO) he has not been good.  He has looked bad.  I can still think him a good QB and think he has played crappy lately.  The O line is his biggest problem right now I get that, but he needs to be below average to bad with a bad o line not turrible like he has been.  I am not expecting perfect games from him with that o line, but I am expecting mediocre games.  Not fumbling the ball and looking like a kid out there.  He has looked like crap minus a couple games.  I never said he was garbage or that I would rather have someone else.  I like him A LOT.  A **** of a lot more than the average fan.  He has been a god send to this team, but lately he has been struggling.  

I expect that to change, but it does not change the fact he has been pretty bad so far this year.

I guess its all a matter of perspective.  

I see him probably trying to do to much at time, like the saints game, which can lead to turnovers.  In no way has he been bad.  I am not sure how many other teams you watch, but there are plenty of bad qb's out around, hes not one of them.  I'll give you the Saints game, he struggled.  That was a terrible game, but what other games come to mind in your opinion that he has struggled in? Just curious.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      95,488
    • Total Posts
      2,719,647
  • Who's Online (See full list)

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
×