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The Official 2017-2018 Detroit Tigers Off-season Thread

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I think Nick has more trade value than kinsler did, for a few reasons. For one, he’s still quite young. He still has that breakout potential. He’s cheaper. He’s under contract for an additional season. He also doesn’t have the ability to veto a trade so you aren’t forced into taking the only deal offered by the one team he will approve. 

And I also disagree that the guys they are getting back are worthless. There is worth even in lottery ticket types. 

I don’t see the kinsler deal as a salary dump. I see it as getting “something” in return for a guy that won’t be here a year from now. I would rather have the lottery ticket prospect than another year of kinsler playing second for us. 

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1 minute ago, Shelton said:

I think Nick has more trade value than kinsler did, for a few reasons. For one, he’s still quite young. He still has that breakout potential. He’s cheaper. He’s under contract for an additional season. He also doesn’t have the ability to veto a trade so you aren’t forced into taking the only deal offered by the one team he will approve. 

And I also disagree that the guys they are getting back are worthless. There is worth even in lottery ticket types. 

I don’t see the kinsler deal as a salary dump. I see it as getting “something” in return for a guy that won’t be here a year from now. I would rather have the lottery ticket prospect than another year of kinsler playing second for us. 

Kinsler is a bit of a risk himself.  Is he the 90 OPS+ guy we saw last year?  Is he the 109 OPS+ guy that he's been over his career?  He certainly isn't likely to be the 122 OPS+ guy that he was in 2016.  He's going to be a 36 year old middle infielder.  He's had a very fine career, but I'd say his 2018 has a good amount of risk to it.  So with that being said, what do you pony up for a guy like that?  It isn't going to be a top 50 prospect.

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16 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Kinsler is a bit of a risk himself.  Is he the 90 OPS+ guy we saw last year?  Is he the 109 OPS+ guy that he's been over his career?  He certainly isn't likely to be the 122 OPS+ guy that he was in 2016.  He's going to be a 36 year old middle infielder.  He's had a very fine career, but I'd say his 2018 has a good amount of risk to it.  So with that being said, what do you pony up for a guy like that?  It isn't going to be a top 50 prospect.

Yep. There are a lot of factors. The no trade clause didn’t help. The limited number of teams even looking for a 2b hurt. The division winners being basically known already doesn’t help.

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Dan Szymborski has a piece up yesterday where he named the 8 players he saw as "best bets" to break out in 2018. Castellanos was one of them. He had a few reasons for including him, but one that caught my eye is Nick's numbers in September, .359/.377/.632. Dan did not think it was coincidental that those numbers came when he moved off third base and into the OF.

Nick will be 26 for all of 2018. If he's traded now, no one on this board will be happy with the haul. I feel like the only play is to put him in the OF, hope he's adequate out there and that his bat continues to improve. If he really can't handle the OF after a couple of months then there's still value in a DH who can OPS 850 or more, which seems very possible for Castellanos.

I'm curious what the extension offer to him looked like. Maybe just to lock up his years under control and two FA years? There's little reason for Castellanos to take that. He'll be going into his FA year at age 28, which could put him in line for a very nice payday if his September bat is anything close to what he'll look like going forward.

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

Nick has no value.

Kinsler had limited value.   There is a value in making the team somewhat competitive in the near future.  I'm being very generous when I use that term... I'm referring to "if all goes well maybe they're .500 rather than hoping they don't lose 100".  That's a lot more important than moving up from #28 to #25 on system ranking lists.  

Whatever pieces they are getting in these deals are worthless. 

This franchise now has a generation of fans that don't remember the dark days and Avila and Co are doing everything possible to undo that.   They don't need to go back to 2001-2003 levels to rebuild. 

The whole "Caesar" thing is a big joke.  Chris Ilitch has knuckleheads running his sports teams and he seems ok with it.

Of all the guys we got in these deadline moves I bet only 3 of them having any semblance of a ML career.... 

I don't think the pieces are worthless, but I don't think they are worth enough  to completely strip the team of major league talent.  I know a lot of people don't care if they lose 120 games next year and I get that.  I personally would like to see a reasonably competitive team where every game is not an automatic loss like 2003.  I don't want them to sacrifice legit prospects to do do that, but I am willing to see them pass on fringe prospects who have little chance at a major league career.  

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Al inspires so little confidence.  Every time I see him on TV talking I think of Johnny Roast Beef in Goodfellas explaining to Jimmy that even though he was told to "not buy anything" after the Lufthansa heist this new car caddie he bought was ok because "it was under my mudda's name.  I just got married"

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Al inspires so little confidence.  Every time I see him on TV talking I think of Johnny Roast Beef in Goodfellas explaining to Jimmy that even though he was told to "not buy anything" after the Lufthansa heist this new car caddie he bought was ok because "it was under my mudda's name.  I just got married"

 

 

I think you're talking about the Latanza heist? :)

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14 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I don't think the pieces are worthless, but I don't think they are worth enough  to completely strip the team of major league talent.  I know a lot of people don't care if they lose 120 games next year and I get that.  I personally would like to see a reasonably competitive team where every game is not an automatic loss like 2003.  I don't want them to sacrifice legit prospects to do do that, but I am willing to see them pass on fringe prospects who have little chance at a major league career.  

Be competitive on a daily basis but not at the expense of a few #1 draft slots?

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

Nick has no value.

Kinsler had limited value.   There is a value in making the team somewhat competitive in the near future.  I'm being very generous when I use that term... I'm referring to "if all goes well maybe they're .500 rather than hoping they don't lose 100".  That's a lot more important than moving up from #28 to #25 on system ranking lists.  

Whatever pieces they are getting in these deals are worthless. 

This franchise now has a generation of fans that don't remember the dark days and Avila and Co are doing everything possible to undo that.   They don't need to go back to 2001-2003 levels to rebuild. 

The whole "Caesar" thing is a big joke.  Chris Ilitch has knuckleheads running his sports teams and he seems ok with it.

Of all the guys we got in these deadline moves I bet only 3 of them having any semblance of a ML career.... 

I basically agree with this, but I do think that Nick has some value and I would hate to see them dump him for B prospects like Lugo.

 

Nick is a legit plus hitter with more upside potential.  I think he would make a fine primary DH with some 1b/Rf mixed in.

If they rely on this current farm system with no new FA spending, I think their max potential is about 70-75 wins in 3-4 years with weak offense, strong defense and pitching.

The only two ways to get to the top would be (a) absolutely bottom out for 2-4 years, run into a great couple of top non pitcher draft picks that light it up in 2021+ or (b) build on the strong run prevention core above by buying 10+ hitting wins in the FA market, or some combination.

All of the above is predicated on two or three of the current crop of starting pitching prospects panning out and being productive to plus starters.

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Castellanos' May 2017 was bad.  .505 OPS.  Take that out and he's at .872 for the season.  Heck, even with leaving it alone, he was at .811 for the season anyway.

There's value in his bat.  The question is where can he be put if a team doesn't need a DH.

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Using the lottery ticket analogy:

I never really play but last week I did.  With the weather being so cold I haven't been having as many cigars as I normally would.  You can't really smoke them outside if it's too cold because the flame won't stay hot enough.  So last week I took a portion of what i would have spent on cigars and bought 2 scratch off tickets.  I spent $7.   On the $5 ticket I won $10.  I thought about taking that $10 and buying more but I pocked the $3 profit.  To me that's Nick.  I'm guessing on that $10 if got I would have bought a $5 card, 2 $, and a $1.  Among those based on my track record I could expect "winning" $2 at most.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, Oblong said:

Using the lottery ticket analogy:

I never really play but last week I did.  With the weather being so cold I haven't been having as many cigars as I normally would.  You can't really smoke them outside if it's too cold because the flame won't stay hot enough.  So last week I took a portion of what i would have spent on cigars and bought 2 scratch off tickets.  I spent $7.   On the $5 ticket I won $10.  I thought about taking that $10 and buying more but I pocked the $3 profit.  To me that's Nick.  I'm guessing on that $10 if got I would have bought a $5 card, 2 $, and a $1.  Among those based on my track record I could expect "winning" $2 at most.  

That would still be enough to get you either Skittles or Swisher Sweets.

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4 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

That would still be enough to get you either Skittles or Swisher Sweets.

How do you smoke Skittles?

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30 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Al inspires so little confidence.  Every time I see him on TV talking I think of Johnny Roast Beef in Goodfellas explaining to Jimmy that even though he was told to "not buy anything" after the Lufthansa heist this new car caddie he bought was ok because "it was under my mudda's name.  I just got married"

 

 

Every reference to Jimmy makes me smile because I am reminded of my favourite line in the movie, when Paulie is cautioning Henry not to associate too closely with Jimmy.  "He's a good earner", Paulie acknowledged, but he had some shortcomings too.  "Earner", that's hilarious - the notion that money could be "earned" by stealing it, and beating people up.

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30 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Be competitive on a daily basis but not at the expense of a few #1 draft slots?

Teams should not be TRYING to be bad to get better draft picks.  That is not good for the sport in general.  I know most people here don't agree, but I am sticking to it!

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2 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Teams should not be TRYING to be bad to get better draft picks.  That is not good for the sport in general.  I know most people here don't agree, but I am sticking to it!

I'm not saying they should try to be bad.  As it stands now, they will be.

Even if they were to get high draft picks, I just don't know that I think they can use them well enough.  I'm just suspicious of the ability to identify, acquire, and develop.  Maybe I shouldn't be, but I am hesitant.

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42 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Teams should not be TRYING to be bad to get better draft picks.  That is not good for the sport in general.  I know most people here don't agree, but I am sticking to it!

I think a select amount of teams should, and, IMO, this small amount is not going to have a negative impact on the sport as a whole.

edit: or rather the impact is probably negligible. 

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53 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Using the lottery ticket analogy:

I never really play but last week I did.  With the weather being so cold I haven't been having as many cigars as I normally would.  You can't really smoke them outside if it's too cold because the flame won't stay hot enough.  So last week I took a portion of what i would have spent on cigars and bought 2 scratch off tickets.  I spent $7.   On the $5 ticket I won $10.  I thought about taking that $10 and buying more but I pocked the $3 profit.  To me that's Nick.  I'm guessing on that $10 if got I would have bought a $5 card, 2 $, and a $1.  Among those based on my track record I could expect "winning" $2 at most.  

 

 

I think for the lottery ticket analogy we have to discuss how to compare one season of Ian kinsler or 2 months of JD Martinez to the money you spent. The money in your pocket has value that doesn’t expire. The value of JD and Kinsler was going to expire. And that expiring value was basically, my favorite team wins 5 out of 10 games instead of 4 out of 10 games. 

I’m not trying to devalue the ability to watch a better baseball team. Personally, I almost always support spending to make the team as good as possible, but there’s a limit. The team made too many mistakes with DD and AA over the past 4 years, and we have to work with what we have. 

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10 minutes ago, Yoda said:

I think a select amount of teams should, and, IMO, this small amount is not going to have a negative impact on the sport as a whole.

edit: or rather the impact is probably negligible. 

There are a lot more than a select few teams in re-building mode at the moment.  I would hate to see a dozen teams trying to lose.  One is too many as far as I am concerned.  

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7 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

There are a lot more than a select few teams in re-building mode at the moment.  I would hate to see a dozen teams trying to lose.  One is too many as far as I am concerned.  

What should the Tigers be doing for/in 2018?

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8 minutes ago, Casimir said:

What should the Tigers be doing for/in 2018?

I won’t answer for Lee, but I can see an approach to 2018 that didn’t include tanking like they are doing right now. 

For example, don’t trade kinsler. Monitor the free agent market and sign a good player to a good deal, like one of the many outfielders available, instead of signing Martin. Maybe try to find some decent bullpen arms on a bargain. Sign a starting pitcher better than Ryan carpenter or whoever they signed. 

It wouldn’t be that impossible to squeeze a wild card team out of the group that entered this offseason if they were willing to spend a little bit in free agency. 

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24 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

There are a lot more than a select few teams in re-building mode at the moment.  I would hate to see a dozen teams trying to lose.  One is too many as far as I am concerned.  

All 12 would not. I'm ok with 2 or 3 every year, who know they are terrible, trying to lose. As the Tigers did last year. I don't think that would harm the sport at all. Nobody can prove they are/were trying to lose. 

Sure, if you wanna move the goal post to 12 teams trying to lose, that would be bad for the sport. 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Whatever.  Castellanos has no position.  He has value but it isn't like he posts a 1.000 OPS.

5 players in MLB posted a 1.000 or better OPS in 2017. 

Cast posted an .811 OPS, the 59th best OPS in MLB, better than dudes like Christian Yelich (a player teams are willing to trade their farm for), Lorenzo Cain (about to get paid), and Didi Gregorious (batted cleanup for the Yankees in the ALCS), among others. 

Cast is young and is clearly still improving. 

The main knock against him is that he only has 2 years left on his contract. 

However, I believe he has more value than you think. 

 

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