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The Official 2017-2018 Detroit Tigers Off-season Thread

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14 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

This article supports the idea that the real value players (performance minus salary) are in the bullpen.  For a team that is capable of winning 90 games with a good bullpen, I would guess that 3 great arms + whatever would be roughly equal to 1 great arm + 4 above average arms.....a couple additional good arms in the 4th and 5th reliever slots would keep a number of winnable games in check, even if they come in a run or two down in the 4th, 5th or 6th inning.

That was a great article.  Carleton is one of my favorite saber writers.  He does a lot of "gory math" but also does a good job of summing it up at the end.  

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Tigers have notified me I can buy up to 4 additional opening day tickets... for $5 less than the general public price.  I only have 2 seats in my package  

They must have had a serious drop in ticket renewals to do that. Getting to purchase additional OD is rare and usually reserved for full holders. 

Gonna be real quiet this year. 

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58 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

That was a great article.  Carleton is one of my favorite saber writers.  He does a lot of "gory math" but also does a good job of summing it up at the end.  

That was so good.  I'd love to see that top 10 list every year for the last 5, to see if anyone makes a repeat appearance.  I think that those would be rare, and that is why building a bullpen is so difficult.  There have been relievers who were not closers over the years, who for periods of 2 or 3 years - Cliff Pollitte for example - where if he came into the game in the 7th inning I'd say to myself that's it, game's over.  That's the sort of guy who keys a bullpen, but being able to predict when that success will begin and end seems to be the elusive part.

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10 hours ago, Charles Liston said:

Do you like Gresuan Silverio?

I do. There's plenty to like, both with the bat and some potential with the glove, but he's light years away. There's also a strong possibility the glove doesn't cut it and he's forced to another position, at which point the bat won't support a big league projection. He's interesting to keep an eye on at this stage, but he's got a massive amount of risk. 

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On 1/19/2018 at 9:50 AM, kdog said:

Henning uses a flimsy argument to conclude that Chris I will spend. I don't buy it.

Henning likes his flimsy arguments.

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I have it on good authority that Tigers ownership is prepared to have a bad team for the next 3-5 years.  They are willing to see the process through.

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9 hours ago, Microline133 said:

I do. There's plenty to like, both with the bat and some potential with the glove, but he's light years away. There's also a strong possibility the glove doesn't cut it and he's forced to another position, at which point the bat won't support a big league projection. He's interesting to keep an eye on at this stage, but he's got a massive amount of risk. 

Thanks.  All I'm looking at is numbers but I like an 18-year-old switch-hitter who gets on base in the GCL.

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5 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I have it on good authority that Tigers ownership is prepared to have a bad team for the next 3-5 years.  They are willing to see the process through.

I am prepared for it too.  Hopefully, it's more like 3 than 5, but it's going to be a long rough stretch .  

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3 hours ago, tiger337 said:

I am prepared for it too.  Hopefully, it's more like 3 than 5, but it's going to be a long rough stretch .  

Just bugs me because I don't think there's any reason for such a long stretch of futility.   There is just no way that AA should be given more than another 2 or 3 years as GM IMHO, whether or not it's a total rebuild or something else.

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Some more prospects lists have come out today.

Baseball America top 100 came out and Perez Faedo and manning made the top 100. 

Keith Law has his 51-100 out today, which includes Perez and daz cameron. Hard to say whether Faedo or Manning make the top 50. My guess would be that Manning doesn’t make Law’s top 50 but Faedo has a chance. 

BP has their tigers top 10 out today. Perez burrows Faedo Cameron paredes in the top five. 

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8 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Some more prospects lists have come out today.

Baseball America top 100 came out and Perez Faedo and manning made the top 100. 

Keith Law has his 51-100 out today, which includes Perez and daz cameron. Hard to say whether Faedo or Manning make the top 50. My guess would be that Manning doesn’t make Law’s top 50 but Faedo has a chance

BP has their tigers top 10 out today. Perez burrows Faedo Cameron paredes in the top five. 

Law is not impressed by Manning, so he won't make it.  I don't think Faedo would be ranked ahead of Perez, so I doubt he'll make it either.  It is good to see Cameron making some lists.  

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3 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Law is not impressed by Manning, so he won't make it.  I don't think Faedo would be ranked ahead of Perez, so I doubt he'll make it either.  It is good to see Cameron making some lists.  

Agree on manning. But I think Faedo could rank ahead of Perez. I would be surprised if Faedo ranked behind Cameron. Regardless, Cameron making his top 100 is pretty good. 

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Quote

But Miguel Cabrera is an example of a player whose future was evaluated by his former manager Brad Ausmus, whose eyes are as perceptive as anyone in the business. And those observations have indeed been quantified by the best of the analytics.

Miguel Cabrera’s 2017 numbers made him appear to be a declining star: his .243/.329/.399 was below league average, and the result-oriented w/OBA put him in the section with Daniel Descalso. But Ausmus predicts a big comeback season, based on Ausmus’ eyes and analytics and what he says is Miggy’s intense desire for greatness. “He really wants to prove he is still a premium player.” Says Ausmus. “Miggy cares about being great. It matters. And from what I watched last year and know of him, I think he’ll come back.”

Thanks to the phenomenal Network Research staff headed by Nate Purinton and Mike Petriello of Statcast, it seems Ausmus was right on. Using xwOBA—which measures how balls were hit and their hit predictability, Cabrera indeed was one of the unluckiest hitters in the game.

The difference between his w/OBA and the xwOBA was far and away the greatest of any player with a minimum of 250 at-bats (see below), nearly double that of runner-up Mitch Moreland.

(250 AB min)  xwOBA/ wOBA/ Difference
Cabrera:              .382/ .322/ -.060
Moreland:            .371/ .335/ -.036
V. Martinez:        .344/ .311/ -033
Avila:                   .401/ .368/ -.033
Pujols:                 .326/ .294/ -.032
K. Morales:        .358/ .326/ -.032

Gammons

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Interesting to see victor on that list. As much as he seems to be washed up, it would be a pleasant surprise if he started hitting again, maybe enough that a contender might trade for him at the deadline. 

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Miguel may have been unlucky on struck balls, but anyone who watched him also could see how much he was hurting in his lack of core speed - inability to turn on balls (career low % to pull field)  and increased K rate (career high). If the implication is somehow that Miguel only needs better luck and not a significant improvement in health, then I have to disagree. He can have all the drive to greatness in the world, but if he doesn't find the right training regime that allows him to preserve his back (and ankle - also chronic), it won't matter much.

Or another way to put it, Miguel's prospects depend more on that he bring average motivation to the right training program than HOF motivation to the wrong one - Ausmus' view on his will to win are off the mark wrt his actual problem - which is medical/techincal

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They will have no problem sitting Miguel if he's hurting or if the back is sore. It keeps him reasonably healthy and also accomplishes the goal of losing.

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20 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Miguel may have been unlucky on struck balls, but anyone who watched him also could see how much he was hurting in his lack of core speed - inability to turn on balls (career low % to pull field)  and increased K rate (career high). If the implication is somehow that Miguel only needs better luck and not a significant improvement in health, then I have to disagree. He can have all the drive to greatness in the world, but if he doesn't find the right training regime that allows him to preserve his back (and ankle - also chronic), it won't matter much.

Or another way to put it, Miguel's prospects depend more on that he bring average motivation to the right training program than HOF motivation to the wrong one - Ausmus' view on his will to win are off the mark wrt his actual problem - which is medical/techincal

He absolutely needs to be healthier. But at least it is good to know that despite his injury he still had great bat to ball skills. 

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1 hour ago, kdog said:

They will have no problem sitting Miguel if he's hurting or if the back is sore. It keeps him reasonably healthy and also accomplishes the goal of losing.

Agreed. In years past he played through injury because we were fighting for every win. This year, if he sneezes he'll go on the 7 dayer. 

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2 hours ago, Shelton said:

Interesting to see victor on that list. As much as he seems to be washed up, it would be a pleasant surprise if he started hitting again, maybe enough that a contender might trade for him at the deadline. 

It would not be the first time he has been written off by many only to bounce back.  I don't think he'll be healthy enough to that now, but it's not out of the question.  

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2 hours ago, kdog said:

They will have no problem sitting Miguel if he's hurting or if the back is sore. It keeps him reasonably healthy and also accomplishes the goal of losing.

The question is whether Cabrera will be OK with that.  

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Miguel at the peak was so much fun to watch.  He had his friends with him, they were winning... I really wonder what he's going to be like if they are losing 4 times a week and the only other veteran around him in the dugout is Nick.  I could also see him taking the role of 'father figure' or whatever to young players and having fun with it.... we'll see.

 

 

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I wouldn’t be surprised if keeping victor around is partially or largely due to wanting another veteran around to appease Cabrera. 

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20 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Miguel at the peak was so much fun to watch.  He had his friends with him, they were winning... I really wonder what he's going to be like if they are losing 4 times a week and the only other veteran around him in the dugout is Nick.  I could also see him taking the role of 'father figure' or whatever to young players and having fun with it.... we'll see.

I think at 28 he'd have a bigger problem with it. But, he's won a WS and a triple crown and is now 34. I think he's probably not happy with it -- cause who doesn't want to win -- but at peace with it. He can serve in that mentor role for a season or two and then if they are ready to make another run at it, he can be part of that. If not then his contract might be moveable at that point.

As for the veterans stuff, he had had quote a couple years back that him and JV were the only one left from when he first got here. He understands its a business and that guys come and go. Plus given his personality I doubt he has trouble making friends. 

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