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IdahoBert

The Official 2017-2018 Detroit Tigers Off-season Thread

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8 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Zero WAR pitchers rarely get 30 starts. 

QED.

Quote

A great rookie starting pitcher that comes out of nowhere is not going to replace an average pitcher in most cases.  He is going to replace a crappy pitcher 5th starter or a collection of 5th starters.  A great rookie hitter, on the other hand, might replace somebody who is better than replacement level.  

Yeah - that also dovetails with my impressions of Trout vs Verlander impacts as rookies.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Just trying to think of an example of a guy whose team won half of his 30 starts ever being a zero WAR player - who would be an example?

Denny McLain in 1967 went 17-16 with a -0.2 WAR.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Denny McLain in 1967 went 17-16 with a -0.2 WAR.

there's a good catch.

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I've been looking at worst 20 game winners, and basically it is a list of guys who either had a 90 ERA+ but a ton of innings pitched, or a 100+ with a solid number of innings (220 - 240 IP).  The worst cases of these have a 2.0 WAR.

Denny McLain had such a season in 1966 (and going down that rabbit hole is how I found his 1967 season).

Gullickson in 91.

Morris in 92.

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Didn't Wilbur Wood (or could've been Niekro, and Carlton had a year) have a 20-win year in which he lost more games than he won? Didn't look at ERA+ or WAR, but that would seem to give at least an indication...

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1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

QED.

 

Not really.  Replacement player is a concept rather than one player.  If someone is a 4-WAR pitcher, they are 4 wins better than a theoretical player that can be obtained for free.  In the Verlander example, it probably means that he was 4 wins better than a collection of pitchers that would have started games if he were not around.  I believe a 5.7 run per game team can win half of its games even using replacement starters.  You could argue that the Tigers had so little pitching depth that maybe their fifth starters were -1 WAR in which case Verlander becomes a 5-win starter, but I don't think you can go much further than that.    

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7 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Didn't Wilbur Wood (or could've been Niekro, and Carlton had a year) have a 20-win year in which he lost more games than he won? Didn't look at ERA+ or WAR, but that would seem to give at least an indication...

Both Wilbur Wood and Niekro were absolute ballers, so they had good WARs, even in seasons where they went 15-17 or 21-18 or whatever.

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Phil Niekro is already a hall of famer as he should be.  I wouldn't put Wood in their because he didn't have a long enough peak.  

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14 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Both Wilbur Wood and Niekro were absolute ballers, so they had good WARs, even in seasons where they went 15-17 or 21-18 or whatever.

Yeah just checked on that. Ditto.

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Phil's brother Joe on the other hand...

Had one of those 20 win seasons with 1.0 WAR and 93 ERA+.

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In the 06 run environment I'm almost positive that if you gave a replacement pitcher 5.7 runs a start that you would win more than half the games and probably closer to 60%. That's a lot of run support. 

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Btw was anybody else worried that cruzer advocated signing a big time free agent? Did his account get hacked?

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59 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

a 1 WAR 20-win season is lower than any season I could find.

1980. 20-12. 93 ERA+, 1.0 WAR, 3.34 ERA... He looks like he had a decent year... not certain why WAR came in so low.

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anyone with a baseball america account who can tell us which shortstop the Tigs are targeting for July 2nd?

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If Lincecum gets through a physical OK, it looks like he’ll be signing with the Rangers.

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16 hours ago, kdog said:

anyone with a baseball america account who can tell us which shortstop the Tigs are targeting for July 2nd?

I have an account, but I don't see anything about the Tigers targeting a shortstop.  

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23 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I have an account, but I don't see anything about the Tigers targeting a shortstop.  

I don’t have an account, but I did try to check out the article they had about this year’s July 2 shortstops before hitting the paywall. Not sure if there is any info in there about which teams are in on certain players. 

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just random thought but... anyone notice that a certain Mr. Moss got booted off Twitter and now has another account.... but he's yet to purchase as many followers.

 

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15 minutes ago, Oblong said:

just random thought but... anyone notice that a certain Mr. Moss got booted off Twitter and now has another account.... but he's yet to purchase as many followers.

 

He has been sufficiently humbled to not get into flame wars I believe.

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3 hours ago, Oblong said:

just random thought but... anyone notice that a certain Mr. Moss got booted off Twitter and now has another account.... but he's yet to purchase as many followers.

 

Wow, it's not that easy to get booted off Twitter.  You really have to be a POS.  

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The Tigers currently have three players on the shelf, all LHP's (Liriano, Hardy, Wood).  That sound you hear is the pitter-patter of the hearts of guys with names like Carpenter, Norris, Stumpf, Bell, and Russell (although they wouldn't admit to it).

 

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