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The Official 2017-2018 Detroit Tigers Off-season Thread

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2 hours ago, chasfh said:

It seems pretty likely to me that these front loaded contracts, such as Hosmer and J. D.'s, are structured that way as an invitation to the players to opt out after the team gets their best years from them. Especially true of Hosmer, who goes from $21MM each of the first five years, after which he can opt out, to $13MM after that. If Hosmer has any kind of decent 2022, he'll believe he's worth more than the $13MM he's due and will opt out, which would take the Padres off the hook for the remaining $39MM once he's 33.

can you imagine how happy the Tigers would be right now if Cabrera's contract had been front loaded like that and we owed less than $15mill/yr now?

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And rising interest rates / inflation make the back loaded aspect of the Cabrera contract a little less ugly.

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5 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

There is nothing preventing the Tigers from offering to restructure Miguel's contract to make it front loaded.

Wow - I was just looking - it seems like years since Cabrera signed his contract but we are only three seasons into it. Looking at the pitching going into '16 in hindsight. the die had already been cast for the end of the Tigers run (i.e. Sanchez and Zimmermann as 40% of the rotation). Makes having given anyone an 8 yr deal even more painful to contemplate.

 

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Wow - I was just looking - it seems like years since Cabrera signed his contract but we are only three seasons into it. Looking at the pitching going into '16 in hindsight. the die had already been cast for the end of the Tigers run (i.e. Sanchez and Zimmermann as 40% of the rotation). Makes having given anyone an 8 yr deal even more painful to contemplate.

 

The extension was made prior to the 2014 season, so the die had not been cast at that point.  Still, it didn't seem necessary to sign him to an extension so early.    

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

The extension was made prior to the 2014 season, so the die had not been cast at that point.  Still, it didn't seem necessary to sign him to an extension so early.    

OK - That is more like what I remembered - I guess the contract sites only pick up that his current deal took effect in 2016 so I just assumed I was misremembering when it was signed - the whole Tiger experience is kind of in a fog for me now.....:S

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

OK - That is more like what I remembered - I guess the contract sites only pick up that his current deal took effect in 2016 so I just assumed I was misremembering when it was signed - the whole Tiger experience is kind of in a fog for me now.....:S

The @#$@#$ contract websites messed me up recently too....is there one that is bulletproof?

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3 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

OK - That is more like what I remembered - I guess the contract sites only pick up that his current deal took effect in 2016 so I just assumed I was misremembering when it was signed - the whole Tiger experience is kind of in a fog for me now.....:S

The whole last decade kind of runs together for me. 2006 was memorable.  Beyond that, it's been fun, but I have a hard time remembering which years were their best ones without looking it up.  It must be an age thing.  I can go back to the 70s and 80s and remember what each specific year was like.  

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8 hours ago, tiger337 said:

The whole last decade kind of runs together for me. 2006 was memorable.  Beyond that, it's been fun, but I have a hard time remembering which years were their best ones without looking it up.  It must be an age thing.  I can go back to the 70s and 80s and remember what each specific year was like.  

I see the 2008/2010 as kind of a buffer period.  When I think of the 2006 era I immediately come up with Maggs/Granderson/Bonderman/Guillen.... that's the core of my memories.. and oddly enough the old scoreboard with the analog clock on it. 

For the 2011 period I transition to thinking of guys like Miggy and Scherzer and VMart... for me there's a definite line between them that I can make out.  (Obviously if you study the rosters and such you can see it but I'm just referring to first impressions, etc.)

I like to go on baseball reference and look at the game logs.... what jumps out at me and I've said this before is 2012 is the WS year but until the final week it wasn't a sure thing they'd make the playoffs.  They closed out the season with a road trip.,  We left our final Friday night game unsure if we'd be back at the stadium. I think at that point they just tied Chicago for first place, or went ahead.. I remember taking a picture of the standings as they flashed it on the board after the game.

In 2011 the team was an injured mess.... I was almost glad they lost to TX if that prevented them from losing to STL again.  Not upset by 2012 either because the Giants just got a few more hits in games 2,3, and 4.  Those 3 games were very close and that's playoff baseball.  Tigers could have played better sure... but they didn't stink it up like in 2006.  2006 hurt because they played poorly.  2013 will always be the one that got away, they should have won the WS that year.   2014 was a year they could have gone further if they had both a better bullpen and bullpen management.

 

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I see the Yankees DFAd OF Jabari Blash as a result of its triad trade with Tampa and Arizona.  I only bring this up because Jabari Blash is a fantastic name.

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I don't know if its great or terrible that we won't hear clips of John Sterling saying something like, 'Another bash . . . from Blash . . . that one got out of here in a flash . . .'

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It will be interesting as spring training goes along to monitor the players that are DFA’d or put on waivers. There is a decent chance a guy that is out of options but with some potential will hit waivers and the tigers will have first crack at claiming him. Could be a utility infielder type or reliever or something. 

It’s interesting that Dickerson hasn’t been traded yet. If he goes on waivers I really think the tigers should claim him. That would give us a four man outfield with Dickerson and mahtook and castellanos and Martin, with Reyes as a fifth outfielder. 

Victor will need some days off so those four outfielders should get plenty of at bats spread around. 

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1. Martin, CF

2. Mahtook, LF

3. Cabrera, 1B

4. Castellanos, RF

5. Candelario, 3B

6. McCann, C

7. Martinez, DH

8. Machado, 2B

9. Iglesias, SS

Bench- Hicks, Amarista, Jones, Reyes

How far off am I?

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7 minutes ago, Sydney_Fife said:

1. Martin, CF

2. Mahtook, LF

3. Cabrera, 1B

4. Castellanos, RF

5. Candelario, 3B

6. McCann, C

7. Martinez, DH

8. Machado, 2B

9. Iglesias, SS

Bench- Hicks, Amarista, Jones, Reyes

How far off am I?

I think that’s definitely the starting lineup (not necessarily the order), but who knows with the bench. 

I think Amarista is a good bet for the bench, because I think he can play the outfield, too. 

Jones seems like a fair bet,  too. 

The 40 man is full right now, so it could be tough to add multiple guys that are currently NRIs. But there are some pitchers that are out of options that probably won’t make the team, so a couple spots could open up. 

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13 minutes ago, Shelton said:

 

Jones seems like a fair bet,  too. 

 

Probably.  If they have finally  decided that utility/platoon is his ceiling,  it seems likely he ends up in Det as a platoon CF when Victor is long term dl'd and Castellanos ends up DH'ing a lot.  If he end up in Toledo I would think it would only be if they set him up with something new they want him to work on with the bat. Then again, Amarista  and Jones are almost the same guy aren't they?

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3 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Probably.  If they have finally  decided that utility/platoon is his ceiling,  it seems likely he ends up in Det as a platoon CF when Victor is long term dl'd and Castellanos ends up DH'ing a lot.  If he end up in Toledo I would think it would only be if they set him up with something new they want him to work on with the bat. Then again, Amarista  and Jones are almost the same guy aren't they?

Jones makes a lot of sense as a platoon partner for Martin. I think the only way he doesn’t make it is if the tigers grab another outfielder on waivers. But I suppose if he looks bad this spring, he could start in Toledo and they could carry adduci or something instead. 

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23 hours ago, 1776 said:

Man, wouldn’t that be something. He would definitely bring a lot of experience and maybe some positive vibes.

Rumor is Mariners

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37 minutes ago, Sydney_Fife said:

1. Martin, CF

2. Mahtook, LF

3. Cabrera, 1B

4. Castellanos, RF

5. Candelario, 3B

6. McCann, C

7. Martinez, DH

8. Machado, 2B

9. Iglesias, SS

Bench- Hicks, Amarista, Jones, Reyes

How far off am I?

VMart is toast. Cabrera will be DHing a lot. 

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4 minutes ago, Yoda said:

VMart is toast. Cabrera will be DHing a lot. 

I think Vmart may still have a little left in the tank. But he’s also not important to this team anymore obviously, so he’s definitely going to sit a lot, whether to get Cabrera a day off his feet, or to play Nick there and open a spot for one of the bench outfielders to get a game. 

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My sleeper pick for AL ROY is Ronny Rodriguez.  I think he’ll ultimately win 2B from Machado, or take over if/when Iglesias is dealt.

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37 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

My sleeper pick for AL ROY is Ronny Rodriguez.  I think he’ll ultimately win 2B from Machado, or take over if/when Iglesias is dealt.

Good baseball name.

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On 2/20/2018 at 10:15 AM, Shelton said:

 These recent deals are definitely an invitation for the guy to opt out, but doesn’t hurt as much if they opt in. 

And I think that is why teams are structuring them that way. Thanks to the luxury tax. 

In the past teams used to be like back load, I'll worry about year 7 in year 7, I have more guys to sign today. But, now, teams are so worried about the luxury tax they'd rather spend more today to know what they have budget wise/hope the guy opts out/if he doesnt then you have a marginal player but only at like 10 million instead of 20 so it doesn't kill you in luxury tax implications in year 7. 

I think you're going to see a lot more of the 5 or 6 year deals with 65 percent of the money by year two and three. In a few years FA should be nuts just in terms of all the number of players available. You're going to have the traditional 6 service year time guys and then all the opt out guys on top. 

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1 hour ago, Keepleyland2 said:

And I think that is why teams are structuring them that way. Thanks to the luxury tax. 

In the past teams used to be like back load, I'll worry about year 7 in year 7, I have more guys to sign today. But, now, teams are so worried about the luxury tax they'd rather spend more today to know what they have budget wise/hope the guy opts out/if he doesnt then you have a marginal player but only at like 10 million instead of 20 so it doesn't kill you in luxury tax implications in year 7. 

I think you're going to see a lot more of the 5 or 6 year deals with 65 percent of the money by year two and three. In a few years FA should be nuts just in terms of all the number of players available. You're going to have the traditional 6 service year time guys and then all the opt out guys on top. 

I’m not sure how opt outs are factored in to the luxury tax calculations. In a typical long term deal, the average annual value is the number that they use to determine your tax number. So you couldn’t set up different amounts every year to affect the tax. It may still make sense from a cash flow standpoint to set up different payments in different years, but it won’t help you with the tax. 

My guess is that the average value is used assuming no opt out. And if the guy opts out, you get hit with an added amount to make up for what you didn’t pay the first couple years. 

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30 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I’m not sure how opt outs are factored in to the luxury tax calculations. In a typical long term deal, the average annual value is the number that they use to determine your tax number. So you couldn’t set up different amounts every year to affect the tax. It may still make sense from a cash flow standpoint to set up different payments in different years, but it won’t help you with the tax. 

My guess is that the average value is used assuming no opt out. And if the guy opts out, you get hit with an added amount to make up for what you didn’t pay the first couple years. 

Not sure either. 

But, I'm not sure my point got across, the Opts are now encouraged and it lets teams budget by saying OK he's gonna cost us 30 million this year on top of the 100 we already have. Then in year 6 if he doesn't opt out, it costs us 12 million so we can still go get some players for 18 million. Whereas in the past it was who the **** cares what year 6 costs us, we'll worry about that then. We need it to cost 12 million in year one so we can sign another guy!

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1 minute ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Not sure either. 

But, I'm not sure my point got across, the Opts are now encouraged and it lets teams budget by saying OK he's gonna cost us 30 million this year on top of the 100 we already have. Then in year 6 if he doesn't opt out, it costs us 12 million so we can still go get some players for 18 million. Whereas in the past it was who the **** cares what year 6 costs us, we'll worry about that then. We need it to cost 12 million in year one so we can sign another guy!

Sure. I was only responding to what a backloaded or front loaded contract counts toward the tax cap. It doesn’t make a difference. But it does make a difference in the actual payroll (which is different than the payroll for luxury tax purposes).

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