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Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints

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Andy Benoit has Stafford at #2.

2. Matthew Stafford, Lions: With Aaron Rodgers shelved, Stafford right now possesses the best arm in football. His ability to throw with velocity from a variety of platforms has been the difference in a few Lions wins; no one is better on far-hash, downfield throws. Stafford actually makes it risky to play Cover 2. Plus, he continues to show more pre- and post-snap maturity in coordinator Jim Bob Cooter’s offense. The Lions frequently line up in static formations and let their QB research the defense and tweak the play call before the snap. That’s what the Colts did in the Peyton Manning years. True, it wasn’t a great showing for Stafford against the Saints last Sunday, and yes, the Lions’ passing numbers are far from dazzling (there aren’t many weapons there). That doesn’t change the fact that Stafford’s skills have now caught up to his extraordinary talent.

Discuss. 

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14 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I agree that the incorrect decision isn’t justified just because it didn’t hurt. But I think there is more to it than that. There was still some potential benefit to be gained by leaving him, even if it was remote. 

What’s the benefit of running across traffic? If you are competing in a race and running across traffic will help you win, that’s a variable to consider, even if making it across unharmed doesn’t guarantee you win. 

Yes, of course there are extenuating circumstances.  If my daughter was about to be murdered on the other side of the highway, **** yes I would run across it to try and save her.  Yes, the analogy is extreme but the point is show how a favorable (or even semi-favorable) result to an action does not, by itself, make the initial decision a smart one.

One could even argue that running across the busy highway to save my daughter isn't smart because it's highly likely that I'll get killed and then my daughter still gets murder plus my son is without a father and my wife is without a husband as well.  But I'm still going to do it because the risk, while great, is worth the potential payoff.

So yeah... it's all about risk vs. reward.  What the possible reward for starting Stafford?  Going into the game I say there was in the range of a 50/50 chance of winning.  There's probably a 10-20% chance Stafford, given that he's already gimpy, will get more seriously injured.  That's worth it given the short 16 game season.

At half time, though, everything was different.  The OL was getting destroyed.  Stafford was ineffective.  The score was hugely lopsided.  At that point I'd give it a less than 5% chance of winning.  I'd also increase the odds that Stafford get seriously injured to the 30-40% range.  It significantly decrease chance of reward is just not worth the increased risk of injury.

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30 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

Hard for me to judge... This year it seems like Stafford has been missing high on a lot of his receivers.  I'm not sure if this is intentional because his guys aren't getting enough separation for him to lay it in there better or if it's Cooter's philosophy on how to run the offense but it seems like a lot of his pass require the receivers to jump for 'em.

Stafford has the arm strength, definitely.  He also seems to be able to make good decisions for the most part.  But I'm not completely sold on his accuracy right now.

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7 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Yes, of course there are extenuating circumstances.  If my daughter was about to be murdered on the other side of the highway, **** yes I would run across it to try and save her.  Yes, the analogy is extreme but the point is show how a favorable (or even semi-favorable) result to an action does not, by itself, make the initial decision a smart one.

One could even argue that running across the busy highway to save my daughter isn't smart because it's highly likely that I'll get killed and then my daughter still gets murder plus my son is without a father and my wife is without a husband as well.  But I'm still going to do it because the risk, while great, is worth the potential payoff.

So yeah... it's all about risk vs. reward.  What the possible reward for starting Stafford?  Going into the game I say there was in the range of a 50/50 chance of winning.  There's probably a 10-20% chance Stafford, given that he's already gimpy, will get more seriously injured.  That's worth it given the short 16 game season.

At half time, though, everything was different.  The OL was getting destroyed.  Stafford was ineffective.  The score was hugely lopsided.  At that point I'd give it a less than 5% chance of winning.  I'd also increase the odds that Stafford get seriously injured to the 30-40% range.  It significantly decrease chance of reward is just not worth the increased risk of injury.

And I’m still not saying it was a smart decision. I agree in that I think it was the wrong decision. I just don’t think it was a 100% wrong decision. There are reasons to take the risk, and Caldwell’s decision to take the risk was confirmed when the lions got to the point where they were getting the ball back down 7.

I strongly disagree with your estimates of the likelihood of him getting injured by playing in the game, or playing in the second half. I say the risk of injury was 2%. Who’s right? No one knows. 

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1 hour ago, RedRamage said:

Hard for me to judge... This year it seems like Stafford has been missing high on a lot of his receivers.  I'm not sure if this is intentional because his guys aren't getting enough separation for him to lay it in there better or if it's Cooter's philosophy on how to run the offense but it seems like a lot of his pass require the receivers to jump for 'em.

Stafford has the arm strength, definitely.  He also seems to be able to make good decisions for the most part.  But I'm not completely sold on his accuracy right now.

The big caveat is that Aaron Rodgers is not on the list due to injury, but to me it seems clear that Stafford is behind not only Brady but Brees and Roethlisberger (despite his horrible game two weeks ago), probably Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson, maybe Carson Wentz. And though Benoit makes much of Stafford's control of the offense at the line of scrimmage, there have been too many decisions the past few weeks that have blown up in Stafford's face.  

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Risk of injury grows when you have a bum ankle to begin with and the team can't protect.  Now he has a rib. Good thing they have Kaaya back.  Ugh 

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1 hour ago, cruzer1 said:

Risk of injury grows when you have a bum ankle to begin with and the team can't protect.  Now he has a rib. Good thing they have Kaaya back.  Ugh 

He might even have two ribs. May need to check. 

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PFF stuff

Quin the #2 safety, Tate the #5 WR and Wagner the #9 OT. Lang remains a top 5 G as well.

Slay and Diggs are 21 and 22 at CB. The others are pathetic. Wilson is grading unacceptably as well. Washington could threaten his pt

Robinson had our best grade of the week, obviously aided by the big play, but not solely built on that.

Marvin Jones had a huge game and really boosted his grade up to near acceptable levels.

If you can get Decker, Lang and Golladay on the field, the offense can probably function well enough. Washington would be nice too but I won't get greedy. Also play Ebron less.

 

 

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22 hours ago, Jason_R said:

2. Matthew Stafford, Lions: With Aaron Rodgers shelved, Stafford right now possesses the best arm in football. His ability to throw with velocity from a variety of platforms has been the difference in a few Lions wins; no one is better on far-hash, downfield throws. Stafford actually makes it risky to play Cover 2. Plus, he continues to show more pre- and post-snap maturity in coordinator Jim Bob Cooter’s offense. The Lions frequently line up in static formations and let their QB research the defense and tweak the play call before the snap. That’s what the Colts did in the Peyton Manning years. True, it wasn’t a great showing for Stafford against the Saints last Sunday, and yes, the Lions’ passing numbers are far from dazzling (there aren’t many weapons there). That doesn’t change the fact that Stafford’s skills have now caught up to his extraordinary talent.  

I'd agree with this take.  The problem is having time for receivers to create space.  The OL, & thus Stafford, will get better when Decker gets back.  The question is will it be too late?

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On 10/18/2017 at 9:24 PM, Nastradamus said:

PFF stuff

Quin the #2 safety, Tate the #5 WR and Wagner the #9 OT. Lang remains a top 5 G as well.

Slay and Diggs are 21 and 22 at CB. The others are pathetic. Wilson is grading unacceptably as well. Washington could threaten his pt

Robinson had our best grade of the week, obviously aided by the big play, but not solely built on that.

Marvin Jones had a huge game and really boosted his grade up to near acceptable levels.

If you can get Decker, Lang and Golladay on the field, the offense can probably function well enough. Washington would be nice too but I won't get greedy. Also play Ebron less.

 

 

golladay graded out horribly by pff, didnt he?

he's a rookie receiver, most of them dont usually start very well.

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On ‎10‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 11:21 AM, Jason_R said:

No, not even close.  I'm a big Stafford fan but he hasn't really had a good year outside of cutting down on the INTs before last game, I think he's been off on a lot of throws and is holding on to the ball too long at other times.   The offense has been stagnant more times than not.

He's been a game manager who moves the ball downfield only when the team is trailing late in the game.  Not his fault really because of the playcalling and the state of the O-Line but I have a hard time putting a game manager at #2.  I'd put him on the fringe of the top 10 right now.

I think (hope) we see improvement as the offensive line gets healthy and Golloday comes back.

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9 hours ago, Buddha said:

golladay graded out horribly by pff, didnt he?

he's a rookie receiver, most of them dont usually start very well.

He is their deep threat and with the o line crumbling around Stafford giving him NO time to even check down it is no surprise his production has been so low so far.

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1 hour ago, John_Brian_K said:

He is their deep threat and with the o line crumbling around Stafford giving him NO time to even check down it is no surprise his production has been so low so far.

what good is a deep threat if you have no time to throw the ball deep?

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On 10/20/2017 at 12:02 AM, Buddha said:

golladay graded out horribly by pff, didnt he?

he's a rookie receiver, most of them dont usually start very well.

Yah, that's true. I probably shouldn't have included him in that particular post, but his ability to make  a particular type of catch is rather tantalizing.

  • Thanks 1

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On 10/15/2017 at 8:55 PM, Buddha said:

me neither but it was brought up before.  the lions are likely to be dogs at home to the steelers in two weeks.

its the nfl.  anyone can beat anyone else on any given sunday.  the steelers looked like absolute garbage against the bears and they just walked into kc and beat the chiefs.

any.  given.  sunday.

early line has the steelers favored over the lions by 3 points.  

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45 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Damn. That seems a bit absurd.

there is no rhyme or reason to regular season nfl games anymore.  impossible to bet.

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