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The 2017 Post-Mortem

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The new CBA and the draft pool money really encourages teams to tank. A $5 million difference in draft pool money is basically 5 extra borderline prospects around #60 in value (assuming a team allocated it towards $1 million bonuses). Instead of one Sam McMillan in last year's draft, the Tigers could have had 6. If a team is awful for 3 straight years and they actually draft well, then they could really clean up.

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It sounds like Ausmus is talking about building out a proprietary machine learning system. That would take a long time to build out. They have to feed in a lot of data and measure its predictive accuracy before they could start handing it over to the manager or otherwise it would be useless and counterproductive.

The Illitch's use systems like that for their pizza business. They have a number of data scientists on staff-similar to Dominos. I've always been stumped why they didn't apply what they do in the private sector to baseball.

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Gotta sell everyone. Fulmer, Kinsler, Iglesias, Nick, Greene and eventually maybe a Hicks or even an A.Wilson or Norris. The current system plus a couple back to back #1 picks plus a haul for those guys above and your rebuild should be in great shape.

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3 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

i dunno, analytics is just some nerd sitting in front of a computer. doesn't sound that tough.

Wanna see my battle scars?

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2 hours ago, Scottwood said:

It sounds like Ausmus is talking about building out a proprietary machine learning system. That would take a long time to build out. They have to feed in a lot of data and measure its predictive accuracy before they could start handing it over to the manager or otherwise it would be useless and counterproductive.

The Illitch's use systems like that for their pizza business. They have a number of data scientists on staff-similar to Dominos. I've always been stumped why they didn't apply what they do in the private sector to baseball.

So I guess my question regarding Caesar is who is in charge of the design?  And if Avila moves on, what happens to Caesar?

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On 10/2/2017 at 8:18 AM, pyrotigers said:

I'm really confused as to why Miguel Cabrera played basically the entire season while

1. The team sucked

2. He sucked

3. He had herniated discs in his back (and if they really only found out he had herniated discs in his back after months of back problems...)

This stands out to me. Granted, I haven't watched as much in the past couple seasons as I used to, so maybe I lost awareness of day-to-day news and activities, but what was the reason Miggy played so long if he had lingering injury issues? He seemed off all season.

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14 hours ago, Scottwood said:

It sounds like Ausmus is talking about building out a proprietary machine learning system. That would take a long time to build out. They have to feed in a lot of data and measure its predictive accuracy before they could start handing it over to the manager or otherwise it would be useless and counterproductive.

The Illitch's use systems like that for their pizza business. They have a number of data scientists on staff-similar to Dominos. I've always been stumped why they didn't apply what they do in the private sector to baseball.

Good point about the pizza pizza.  Also their Blue Line distribution operation.  

 

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12 hours ago, FloridaTigers said:

This stands out to me. Granted, I haven't watched as much in the past couple seasons as I used to, so maybe I lost awareness of day-to-day news and activities, but what was the reason Miggy played so long if he had lingering injury issues? He seemed off all season.

Miggy's injury was a major reason why JD, JUp, JV and Jwil are not on the team.  Also, the 2017 trade deadline was brought to you by the letter "J"

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15 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

Gotta sell everyone. Fulmer, Kinsler, Iglesias, Nick, Greene and eventually maybe a Hicks or even an A.Wilson or Norris. The current system plus a couple back to back #1 picks plus a haul for those guys above and your rebuild should be in great shape.

not sure if you're trying to be funny, but I don't understand this sentiment.  Why would you trade young, productive players to get younger, uncertain players in return?  Blowing everything up is irresponsible--we've moved everyone who is either old or has a large salary that we can (Kinsler being the lone exception).  

No where has it been stated that the Tigers feel compelled to get to a low payroll.  I think they are just trading movable assets to get younger, where possible.  

If you lived through 2003, you really don't want to revisit that.  Heck, September 2017 was that bad--why endure an entire season of it?  Time to start integrating young players that are ready over the next handful of seasons.  Doesn't mean you have to trade good, young players who aren't blocking anyone to accomplish this.

We were actually blessed that the collapse was so quick and extreme, that our tank season really only encompassed 30 days.  I don't think anyone thought we would be in a position to get the #1 pick on August 30th.  We got it.  Now let's move forward with building a sustainable roster, with younger and more dimensional players and make it enjoyable baseball.  It doesn't have to completely suck to show progress towards this.

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

not sure if you're trying to be funny, but I don't understand this sentiment.  Why would you trade young, productive players to get younger, uncertain players in return?  Blowing everything up is irresponsible--we've moved everyone who is either old or has a large salary that we can (Kinsler being the lone exception).  

No where has it been stated that the Tigers feel compelled to get to a low payroll.  I think they are just trading movable assets to get younger, where possible.  

If you lived through 2003, you really don't want to revisit that.  Heck, September 2017 was that bad--why endure an entire season of it?  Time to start integrating young players that are ready over the next handful of seasons.  Doesn't mean you have to trade good, young players who aren't blocking anyone to accomplish this.

We were actually blessed that the collapse was so quick and extreme, that our tank season really only encompassed 30 days.  I don't think anyone thought we would be in a position to get the #1 pick on August 30th.  We got it.  Now let's move forward with building a sustainable roster, with younger and more dimensional players and make it enjoyable baseball.  It doesn't have to completely suck to show progress towards this.

At the simplest level, you are trading 2018-2019 value for 2020+ value, because value in 2020 will be more meaningful with regards to making the playoffs.

I do agree however that there is some value in not losing 110 games or something ridiculous. If they do trade Fulmer and Ian and Iggy and Nick, I think they should find a few players in the market for 2018 to ensure that doesn't happen.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Most successful tank ever.

Loved this movie as a kid.... have no idea if it holds up.  I hope it does.

518PA3HZB5L.jpg

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1 hour ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

At the simplest level, you are trading 2018-2019 value for 2020+ value, because value in 2020 will be more meaningful with regards to making the playoffs.

I do agree however that there is some value in not losing 110 games or something ridiculous. If they do trade Fulmer and Ian and Iggy and Nick, I think they should find a few players in the market for 2018 to ensure that doesn't happen.

I'm all for meaningful improvement, but let's not trade young guys just for the sake of trading them.  As has been proven time and time again, the majority of trades where you deal a proven player for prospects usually doesn't work out.  There is no guarantee that the prospects you acquire will pan out, so why not hold on to a Fulmer or Castellanos who are young, cheap, controlled and productive?

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man, I just watched that trailer.  I knew most of the lines.  One of those "We just got cable" movies and I devoured them.

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16 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Loved this movie as a kid.... have no idea if it holds up.  I hope it does.

518PA3HZB5L.jpg

I was planning on referencing that movie...

...I read the plot summary and it was darker than I remembered.

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1 minute ago, Tenacious D said:

I'm all for meaningful improvement, but let's not trade young guys just for the sake of trading them.  As has been proven time and time again, the majority of trades where you deal a proven player for prospects usually doesn't work out.  There is no guarantee that the prospects you acquire will pan out, so why not hold on to a Fulmer or Castellanos who are young, cheap, controlled and productive?

Because Castellanos won't be cheap when we are competing. Really only Fulmer, who I doubt we are going to trade unless it's for a huge haul.

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1 minute ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Because Castellanos won't be cheap when we are competing. Really only Fulmer, who I doubt we are going to trade unless it's for a huge haul.

by the time we have to decide on Castellanos, our payroll should be in fine shape.  not a concern, imo.  

I don't think he did enough this season to warrant a big return in prospects.  I think he loses value as a RF, even though he's probably better there.

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2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

by the time we have to decide on Castellanos, our payroll should be in fine shape.  not a concern, imo.  

I don't think he did enough this season to warrant a big return in prospects.  I think he loses value as a RF, even though he's probably better there.

Disagree. He should be extended or traded. That's how you get most value, not waiting until you lose all leverage, both trade and contract wise, as he's approaching FA.

I would not trade him in the off-season, but I'd either extend him or plan on trading him at the deadline.

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12 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Disagree. He should be extended or traded. That's how you get most value, not waiting until you lose all leverage, both trade and contract wise, as he's approaching FA.

I would not trade him in the off-season, but I'd either extend him or plan on trading him at the deadline.

I support either option.

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I think you make a decision on Castellanos at the deadline. If he is struggling, so be it. Go into the last year of arb and see what happens. 

If he is playing well, shop him and see if any good offers are there. You never know what teams will be looking for. If there isn’t a good deal to be had but you like way he is performing, then you extend him in the offseason. 

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4 hours ago, Oblong said:

Loved this movie as a kid.... have no idea if it holds up.  I hope it does.

518PA3HZB5L.jpg

A kid from my hometown got to be an extra in that movie.  Was in the Army at the time and is in the classroom as Garner marches up the aisle.

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On 10/3/2017 at 3:44 PM, RandyMarsh said:

Ausmus said that these things take upwards of two years and Avila started working on it as soon as he was hired.  To me it sounds like there wasn't much more Avila could do about it.

That is an extremely generous interpretation IMO.

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Avila's been one of the top-ranked officials for 12 years, but somehow the state of core systems are absolutely no reflection on him because he wasn't the GM until 2 years ago.

Bottom line: IMO, Avila was a successful Asst. GM for an old-school GM and a huge payroll. 

I cannot see Avila succeeding on his own with a middle-pack payroll....we'll see.

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