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The 2017 Post-Mortem

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

Lynn Henning addressed this... http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2017/09/26/tigers-offseason-program-improve-miguel-cabreras-back/106014896/

 

“The fact of the matter is,” he said, “if a player tells you he’s OK and can play, you’re going to listen to him.”

Yeah, but this is incredibly stupid

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1 minute ago, pyrotigers said:

Yeah, but this is incredibly stupid

You are speaking from a position of ignorance unless you are a medical professional and interviewed Cabrera and as well as studied his medical charts and conducted an exam.

 

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2 minutes ago, Oblong said:

You are speaking from a position of ignorance unless you are a medical professional and interviewed Cabrera and as well as studied his medical charts and conducted an exam.

 

yeah. it's a herniated disc, everyone knew that's what it was, and people play with them quite often by the sound of it.

as long as the rest/rehab program is done before ST it's a non-issue.

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Mickey--thank you--you just made the case why you don't trade Kinsler now, unless your goal is to cut payroll or extend #operationtank into 2018.  I don't think our plan is to do either.

Machado is a stopgap, at either 2B or SS.  Think Ramon Santiago.  I don't see him being blocked by Ian, nor do I see him as a starter on our next winning team.

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10 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

thank you--you just made the case why you don't trade Kinsler now, unless your goal is to cut payroll or extend #operationtank into 2018.  I don't think our plan is to do either.

Machado is a stopgap, at either 2B or SS.  Think Ramon Santiago.  I don't see him being blocked by Ian. 

Uh, after Upton said he was opting out and the subsequent Verlander trade, I don't know how you can think "operation tank" isn't going into 2018?  They are going to be bad next year.  Kinsler has hinted publicly he would like to play on a contender.  I don't see much chance Kinsler is here next season.  They can get some value for him and there is no reason to keep him against his wishes and pay him the $11 mil to play on a team that isn't going anywhere.  It's not primarily about the $.  It's more about showing goodwill to the player and being able to get some value for him while also saving $. 

And Ramon Santiago 2.0 is just fine for the 2018 version of the Tigers.  Hopefully Lugo will progress and can be a longer term option starting in 2019.  If multiple of Burrows/Perez/Norris/F Funkhouser/Manning hit and/or Zimmermanbecomes effective again/Fulmer isn't traded, there's a chance 2019 will be competitive (in the 80-85 win competitiveness), but 2018 is likely going to be a 90-105 loss team. 

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1 hour ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

yeah. it's a herniated disc, everyone knew that's what it was, and people play with them quite often by the sound of it.

as long as the rest/rehab program is done before ST it's a non-issue.

Isn't it two herniated discs?

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49 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Uh, after Upton said he was opting out and the subsequent Verlander trade, I don't know how you can think "operation tank" isn't going into 2018?  They are going to be bad next year.  Kinsler has hinted publicly he would like to play on a contender.  I don't see much chance Kinsler is here next season.  They can get some value for him and there is no reason to keep him against his wishes and pay him the $11 mil to play on a team that isn't going anywhere.  It's not primarily about the $.  It's more about showing goodwill to the player and being able to get some value for him while also saving $. 

And Ramon Santiago 2.0 is just fine for the 2018 version of the Tigers.  Hopefully Lugo will progress and can be a longer term option starting in 2019.  If multiple of Burrows/Perez/Norris/F Funkhouser/Manning hit and/or Zimmermanbecomes effective again/Fulmer isn't traded, there's a chance 2019 will be competitive (in the 80-85 win competitiveness), but 2018 is likely going to be a 90-105 loss team. 

Let's tackle your incorrect assessment of Kinsler's intent for next year (this is from MLive):

"He was bluntly honest when asked about his future with the club. Kinsler said he only knows for sure that he'll be in Detroit one more month. 

He'd like to be here in 2018, even if it's part of a younger, rebuilding team, but he doesn't know if the Tigers want him back.

"I have no problem being part of a rebuilding team if that's what the Tigers wish. I don't know what they wish," he said. "I don't know if they want me a part of it or if they don't want me a part of it right now. If they do want me a part of it, I'm fine with that. I have no problem trying to pass my experience along as best I can to the younger players and help anyway that I can."

Also, as for Ramon Santiago 2.0, that was on the 2003 Tigers, which won 43 games.  Or better said, lost 119 games.  That's not 90-100, and if you lived through that, it was depressing and embarrassing on a national level, similar to when the Lions went winless.

Also, trading Upton was more about having financial flexibility and getting anything in return for a player who basically told management that he didn't want to be part of a rebuilding.  

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Mickey--thank you--you just made the case why you don't trade Kinsler now, unless your goal is to cut payroll or extend #operationtank into 2018.  I don't think our plan is to do either.

Machado is a stopgap, at either 2B or SS.  Think Ramon Santiago.  I don't see him being blocked by Ian, nor do I see him as a starter on our next winning team.

Kinsler could very well have more value to the organization playing than he does as a tradeable player.  Having him around to mentor Lugo and some of the other young talent that will be up and down would be useful, I think.

Machado is a good guy to have around, so it is a win-win for me.

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The Tigers have no intention and very little chance of competing next year. I would be pretty stunned if Kinsler is back. He played well enough and is on a reasonable enough deal that he could be attractive to a number of teams. I do not expect the return to be great, but if we can get something similar to what we got for Upton: pretty good AA arm and a low level lotto ticket - i think the Tigers should make that trade. And I think that is a very reasonable ask. Maybe the Tigers can even eat a little salary to improve the prospect package. 

Kinsler is maybe the only piece left on the club this winter, who could fetch a good piece or two in return. Really, the only way I could see him staying is if we can't even meet the low bar of the Upton deal and quickly find a taker for Iglesias. Then, you may as well hold onto him and see if you can do better at the deadline, since you'd have to bring in someone to play second anyway.

Greene's success is so limited. I think they will probably be much better off to sit on him, hope his success as a closer was real and then trade him in July. At that point, maybe we can get a similar return to what we got for Wilson.  I see little chance of that happening this winter.

 

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19 hours ago, TheCouga said:

I was actually surprised with both the haul and the salary coverage they got in exchange for Verlander.  I almost felt bad for Houston after I saw that.  That contract was going to be hard for this team to unload.

But good for them with Justin doing so well since the trade.

I really put most of this blame on Mike Illich, with all due respect to the dude.  There was no need to sign Cabrera, Sanchez, and VMart to such albatross contracts.  But Illich was huge on loyalty.  There was no reason to to second-guess Robbie Ray just because he didn't work out instantly, and instead opt for Shane Greene.  But we had to "win now" so we couldn't wait a year and a half for Ray to develop.

The only trade this season where it looks like we got a subpar return was JD Martinez, but we probably waited too long...he was just a 3-month rental when we traded him.

At one point, JV had won 5 games for the Astros. The Tigers, as a team, only had 4 wins in that same time frame. Yes sir, Houston owes us.....😊

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3 hours ago, mickeyb105 said:

Kinsler could very well have more value to the organization playing than he does as a tradeable player.  Having him around to mentor Lugo and some of the other young talent that will be up and down would be useful, I think.

Machado is a good guy to have around, so it is a win-win for me.

I want Ian to stay but I really don't see it. Any player in the multi-million dollar pay scale are going to be dealt, if possible. Of course, Cabrera won't be leaving unless we pay most of his salary. I do see him rebounding but that still remains to be seen. It's going to be at least 3 years until we have a contender and that's if the players we got in the trades all become good/very good players. And not missing on draft picks. I sure wouldn't want AA around when we get close enough to sign a couple FA players to get us over the hump.

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8 hours ago, Sydney_Fife said:

They don't need to be paying a 35 year old veteran 11-12 million dollars to play on a tanking team.

He's best served elsewhere next season, and hopefully we can get a decent prospect in addition to shedding the salary

I have to agree. Very well said.

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8 hours ago, irvink said:

Kinsler is maybe the only piece left on the club this winter, who could fetch a good piece or two in return.

 

Casti, McCann, Fullmer all have trade value. Green has some as well. Stump has some. A bit...

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36 minutes ago, Chili Mac Davis said:

Casti, McCann, Fullmer all have trade value. Green has some as well. Stump has some. A bit...

Yeah, I mean specifically guys who are likely to be dealt this winter.

Fulmer is not at max value due to surgery, so I can't imagine we deal him.

Greene certainly has value, but as I mentioned in my post, I think that value will probably be much higher at the trade deadline, if he's able to sustain a period of success. 

Castellanos has value too, but again, we saw this summer demand for bat-only players is not high. 

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7 hours ago, irvink said:

Yeah, I mean specifically guys who are likely to be dealt this winter.

Fulmer is not at max value due to surgery, so I can't imagine we deal him.

Greene certainly has value, but as I mentioned in my post, I think that value will probably be much higher at the trade deadline, if he's able to sustain a period of success. 

Castellanos has value too, but again, we saw this summer demand for bat-only players is not high. 

Greene's is a dicey situation.  I agree with you about relievers probably having a higher value during season.  I think that clubs probably want some recent trend to buy if they aren't trading for a pedigree like Mariano Rivera.  Greene has had a nice season, but he is far from a lock to repeat.  I would think settling into a role is good for him, and would figure that its likely he has a good 2018.  But you just never know.

Castellanos' defense in RF was better than anticipated.  At least it appeared to be so whilst observing on TV.  However, a scouting eye like micro might have a different and likely better read on it.  I think at this point I'd like to keep him around.

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3 hours ago, Casimir said:

Greene's is a dicey situation.  I agree with you about relievers probably having a higher value during season.  I think that clubs probably want some recent trend to buy if they aren't trading for a pedigree like Mariano Rivera.  Greene has had a nice season, but he is far from a lock to repeat.  I would think settling into a role is good for him, and would figure that its likely he has a good 2018.  But you just never know.

Castellanos' defense in RF was better than anticipated.  At least it appeared to be so whilst observing on TV.  However, a scouting eye like micro might have a different and likely better read on it.  I think at this point I'd like to keep him around.

Yes, I would not be terribly upset if Greene were dealt this winter. I just feel that if we do trade him now, the return won't be anything special. But again, if he can pitch like he did these last two months for the first four months of 2018, then you have a really valuable asset. Maybe the only player besides Fulmer who could bring significant return. He's under control for four more years too, so there should not be a huge rush to trade him.

Agree that Castellanos was better than anticipated, but was he better than say, JD out there? I can see trading him before he's a FA, but don't think his value right now will make it worthwhile. 

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This was a good interview.  Looks like Caesar is not really in place yet.  Ausmus already in "they" mode.

http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2017/10/02/ausmus-tigers-still-playing-catch-up-in-analytics-next-manager-to-face-challenge/

 

“From a computer standpoint, they’ve begun building the whole system. Last year I didn’t really even have access to it. It probably won’t be available to the manager next year. I’m not even sure it’ll be ready for the beginning of the season,” Ausmus told the Jamie and Stoney Show on 97.1 The Ticket.

 

“It takes literally a couple years to build out these programs and these systems. It’ll probably be ready at some point next year early in the season for the manager to use on-field for decisions that would help the team during the course of a game. But we didn’t really have that at all,” said Ausmus.

“It just wasn’t available,” he added, “so it wasn’t a huge part of my daily job.”

Instead, most of the team’s analytics information was “outsourced,” Ausmus said, and then it was his job to make sense of it.

“I kind of had to go through it with my own eyeballs and figure out which information was important,” he said.

As to why Ausmus didn’t have much access to the Tigers’ in-house data hub, overseen by Jay Sartori, the team’s senior director of baseball analytics and operations, the former manager said, “The system was never built out.”

“Most teams have proprietary systems they hire people to build out. It’s not like you hire one guy and all of a sudden he builds out a program. This takes months and months to do, and they have been in the process of doing it. We just didn’t have it available to the baseball operations department at the big-league level while I was here,” said Ausmus.

Ausmus said the Tigers were “near the basement” in regard to analytics when he was hired.

“There really wasn’t much of an analytics department when I arrived here. I think it consisted of two people and, really, it was more like one and a half. One guy had other duties besides looking at the numbers, so it was an extremely small department and they’ve built it up. I couldn’t even tell you how many people they’ve hired at this point, but it’s a lot bigger group of people that are working on it,” he said.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

This was a good interview.  Looks like Caesar is not really in place yet.  Ausmus already in "they" mode.

http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2017/10/02/ausmus-tigers-still-playing-catch-up-in-analytics-next-manager-to-face-challenge/

 

“From a computer standpoint, they’ve begun building the whole system. Last year I didn’t really even have access to it. It probably won’t be available to the manager next year. I’m not even sure it’ll be ready for the beginning of the season,” Ausmus told the Jamie and Stoney Show on 97.1 The Ticket.

 

“It takes literally a couple years to build out these programs and these systems. It’ll probably be ready at some point next year early in the season for the manager to use on-field for decisions that would help the team during the course of a game. But we didn’t really have that at all,” said Ausmus.

“It just wasn’t available,” he added, “so it wasn’t a huge part of my daily job.”

Instead, most of the team’s analytics information was “outsourced,” Ausmus said, and then it was his job to make sense of it.

“I kind of had to go through it with my own eyeballs and figure out which information was important,” he said.

As to why Ausmus didn’t have much access to the Tigers’ in-house data hub, overseen by Jay Sartori, the team’s senior director of baseball analytics and operations, the former manager said, “The system was never built out.”

“Most teams have proprietary systems they hire people to build out. It’s not like you hire one guy and all of a sudden he builds out a program. This takes months and months to do, and they have been in the process of doing it. We just didn’t have it available to the baseball operations department at the big-league level while I was here,” said Ausmus.

Ausmus said the Tigers were “near the basement” in regard to analytics when he was hired.

“There really wasn’t much of an analytics department when I arrived here. I think it consisted of two people and, really, it was more like one and a half. One guy had other duties besides looking at the numbers, so it was an extremely small department and they’ve built it up. I couldn’t even tell you how many people they’ve hired at this point, but it’s a lot bigger group of people that are working on it,” he said.

Undoubtedly Dombrowski is to blame some extent for this pitiful situation.

But c'mon, we're two years into Avila's tenure and the manager still doesn't have access to an in-house analytics Department?  That is total malfeasance on the part of Avila.

The above testimony by Ausmus leaves me with very little confidence that Avila is going to provide the resources necessary to support a strong development manager with tge objective tools and infrastrucure needed to moving this team forward.

Furthermore, it seems pretty evident to me is the relationship between Avila and Ausmus was not at a high functioning level.  Ausmus is barely out the door and is already expressing public disappointment in the lack of analytics support from the FO.  That doesn't seem to me to be the result of a strong relationship between GM and manager, and it doesn't speak well of either man.

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47 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Undoubtedly Dombrowski is to blame some extent for this pitiful situation.

But c'mon, we're two years into Avila's tenure and the manager still doesn't have access to an in-house analytics Department?  That is total malfeasance on the part of Avila.

The above testimony by Ausmus leaves me with very little confidence that Avila is going to provide the resources necessary to support a strong development manager with tge objective tools and infrastrucure needed to moving this team forward.

Furthermore, it seems pretty evident to me is the relationship between Avila and Ausmus was not at a high functioning level.  Ausmus is barely out the door and is already expressing public disappointment in the lack of analytics support from the FO.  That doesn't seem to me to be the result of a strong relationship between GM and manager, and it doesn't speak well of either man.

Ausmus said that these things take upwards of two years and Avila started working on it as soon as he was hired.  To me it sounds like there wasn't much more Avila could do about it.   

 

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7 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Ausmus said that these things take upwards of two years and Avila started working on it as soon as he was hired.  To me it sounds like there wasn't much more Avila could do about it.   

 

i dunno, analytics is just some nerd sitting in front of a computer. doesn't sound that tough.

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