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Tenacious D

What If...

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…Miguel Cabrera can have a return to health and put up a typical Miggy-year? .300 BA, 30 HR, 100 RBI?

Probability: 80%

…Michael Fulmer can also have a full return to health and pitch similar to his ROY season?

Probability: 90%

…Ian Kinsler puts up numbers comparable to his career averages (162 games): .273 BA, 23 HR, 111 Runs?

Probability: 60%

…Shane Greene is in the closer role for an entire season and has a 90% save percentage?

Probability: 80%

…Jordan Zimmerman can pitch 200 innings with an ERA under 4.50?

Probability: 50%

…Jeimer Candelario can provide league average defense at 3B and have a .800 OPS over a full season?

Probability: 75%

…Nick Castellanos repeats his ’17 offensive production?

Probability: 90%

…Daniel Norris realizes his potential over the course of an entire season?

Probability: 50%

…Mikie Mahtook takes an adult name?

Probability: 0%

…Mikie Mahtook carries over his ’17 offensive production over the course of an entire season: .276 BA, 18 HR, 60 RBI, .800 OPS

Probability: 75%

If the Tigers can find serviceable replacements in LF, 4th Starter and 7th and 8th inning relievers on one-year deals, this could be a watchable team next year, which should be the goal.  In a rebuild, IMO, the goal should not be to try and lose games.  It should, however, be about providing opportunities for younger players to develop.  No veterans should be brought in or kept on the current roster if they are blocking an opportunity for a young prospect who is ready to play.  I don’t think it’s wise to rush a player, either.

#operationtank was very successful this year—we’ll likely end up with a top 3 pick in every round of the upcoming draft.  Awesome!  I just don’t want this to be our sustaining plan.  I like baseball.  I’m kind of old (51).  I want to be able to enjoy games instead of watching the AAA-All Star bunch that has been paraded out the last month.  Guys like Holaday, Pressley, Navarro, Romine and Collins are not part of our future and should not be getting significant AB’s moving forward.  The Tigers will lose their fair share of games over the next few seasons without having to try (and likely draft in the top 10).  I don’t think next year’s team is a 100 loss team, nor do I think it should be. 

After Sunday, I’m officially ending #operationtank.  In a division with the rebuilding White Sox and Royals and over-achieving Twins, anything is possible.

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

…Miguel Cabrera can have a return to health and put up a typical Miggy-year? .300 BA, 30 HR, 100 RBI?

Probability: 80%

…Michael Fulmer can also have a full return to health and pitch similar to his ROY season?

Probability: 90%

…Ian Kinsler puts up numbers comparable to his career averages (162 games): .273 BA, 23 HR, 111 Runs?

Probability: 60%

…Shane Greene is in the closer role for an entire season and has a 90% save percentage?

Probability: 80%

…Jordan Zimmerman can pitch 200 innings with an ERA under 4.50?

Probability: 50%

…Jeimer Candelario can provide league average defense at 3B and have a .800 OPS over a full season?

Probability: 75%

…Nick Castellanos repeats his ’17 offensive production?

Probability: 90%

…Daniel Norris realizes his potential over the course of an entire season?

Probability: 50%

…Mikie Mahtook takes an adult name?

Probability: 0%

…Mikie Mahtook carries over his ’17 offensive production over the course of an entire season: .276 BA, 18 HR, 60 RBI, .800 OPS

Probability: 75%

If the Tigers can find serviceable replacements in LF, 4th Starter and 7th and 8th inning relievers on one-year deals, this could be a watchable team next year, which should be the goal.  In a rebuild, IMO, the goal should not be to try and lose games.  It should, however, be about providing opportunities for younger players to develop.  No veterans should be brought in or kept on the current roster if they are blocking an opportunity for a young prospect who is ready to play.  I don’t think it’s wise to rush a player, either.

#operationtank was very successful this year—we’ll likely end up with a top 3 pick in every round of the upcoming draft.  Awesome!  I just don’t want this to be our sustaining plan.  I like baseball.  I’m kind of old (51).  I want to be able to enjoy games instead of watching the AAA-All Star bunch that has been paraded out the last month.  Guys like Holaday, Pressley, Navarro, Romine and Collins are not part of our future and should not be getting significant AB’s moving forward.  The Tigers will lose their fair share of games over the next few seasons without having to try (and likely draft in the top 10).  I don’t think next year’s team is a 100 loss team, nor do I think it should be. 

After Sunday, I’m officially ending #operationtank.  In a division with the rebuilding White Sox and Royals and over-achieving Twins, anything is possible.

I think there is a good chance the offense scores enough runs to be a 75-80 win team. But the rotation and bullpen, which consist of very large question marks everywhere, will determine whether 2018 is 2001-2003 bad or just 2004-2005 bad. 

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I am actually looking forward to the rebuild quite a bit. I think it's going to hurt, but I also think that we are through the worst of it. Sure, there are going to be some rough times next season, but I think that we're going to see a lot of good develop and I agree with you on the likelihood of the storm letting up on many fronts. I think we'll see some prospects make pretty quick moves through the minor league system. The offense will be fine but I think it all depends on the pitching staff, which is probably what will sink us.

I'd like to see Castellanos be somewhere between his full year production and his second half production and I think that's entirely possible given his reduced K rate. If Cabrera does bounce back and Candelario is two thirds of the player he looks like he is, it's not going to be a miserable season. 

I'm saying 68-94, with a chance to be much better due to pitching development in 2019. 

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13 hours ago, thefunk said:

Mid-February optimism showing up quite early, I see.  

Just wait until they all show up in the best shape of their lives.

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6 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

Having learned a change-up.

There is a different attitude on this team this spring.  There is a confidence and swagger that just wasn't there last year.  

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4 hours ago, tiger337 said:

There is a different attitude on this team this spring.  There is a confidence and swagger that just wasn't there last year.  

This one will actually be true. We still won’t win, but I bet we’re cocky as ****.

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