Jump to content

Sign in to follow this  
Joe Beagle

New prospect quality

Recommended Posts

Has anybody (that should have knowledge) made a list of all new prospects showing projected quality of everybody in the set? The ideal list would contain all of the following information on each prospect.

Current skills

initial forecasted development schedule

forecast of timetable to the show.

prediction of impact once on the team.

I totally understand this would be mostly speculation, however, what I am interested in is what was Avila thinking (re the questions posed above) on each one of these guys!

Perhaps someone reading this could make this happen.

I suspect this was just a payroll dump, and would be pleasantly surprised and encouraged if there were some semblance of a rebuilding plan involved. I used to attend all of the time when in the area, and make games even from here in Florida where I get to Lakeland games every spring training. If, however, there is perception that the organization does not care about a timely return to relevance, I have the feeling that will change, not only with me, but other loyal tiger fans.

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Joe Beagle said:

Has anybody (that should have knowledge) made a list of all new prospects showing projected quality of everybody in the set? The ideal list would contain all of the following information on each prospect.

Current skills

initial forecasted development schedule

forecast of timetable to the show.

prediction of impact once on the team.

I totally understand this would be mostly speculation, however, what I am interested in is what was Avila thinking (re the questions posed above) on each one of these guys!

Perhaps someone reading this could make this happen.

I suspect this was just a payroll dump, and would be pleasantly surprised and encouraged if there were some semblance of a rebuilding plan involved. I used to attend all of the time when in the area, and make games even from here in Florida where I get to Lakeland games every spring training. If, however, there is perception that the organization does not care about a timely return to relevance, I have the feeling that will change, not only with me, but other loyal tiger fans.

 

 

 

 

This should give you all the info you need:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=det

Fangraphs has something similar if you go to each prospect's page.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13621&position=3B

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am looking forward to the offseason reports on the system. It's hard to get a good feel for a prospect ranking midseason. 

At least the MLB page makes some effort to keep an updated database. 

There seem to be a lot of guys with FV of 50 and 55 in the system. That's pretty good. But I think once these lists are refreshed we will have a better idea where each of these guys stands. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Usually when teams think they have a nucleus in place to win the world series, they raise payrolls to maximum levels. When they do not feel like they have that nucleus, the payroll will drop. That is normal and just because ownership will be spending a lot less next year doesn't in and of itself signal that they aren't willing to spend to win anymore when the time comes.

It looks like they got as good of a return for the guys they moved as they could. If you pay attention to top 100 lists this off season you should see Perez and Candelario. Maybe Paredes.

We will probably be able to tell if Mr I's kids are going to be more frugal going forward if they avoid free agency completely and don't spend all of the draft and international pool money. And then if and when they do develop a core we will really find out.

The fact that they ate money in the JV trade to get a decent prospect package suggests that we aren't going to suddenly turn into the Rays at least.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the letter from Avila is clear.....they are not going to be spending significant $$, at least not until they have a competitive reason to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thinking on the top 100 thing, it's not outside the realm of possibility that we could have the following guys on a top 100 list this offseason.

perez

burrows

manning 

faedo

jeimer 

paredes

 

and then there are guys outside the top 100 that are at least interesting enough to see major league futures like:

daz

hill

funkhouser

lugo

 

and that's just thr SPs and position players. There are relievers that count for something, too. Only five of the above guys were in the system prior to the trades, so it's easy to feel better about the future. 

That said, it's not like the system is awesome relative to other teams. Maybe it is ranked in the teens overall. I have no idea because I don't follow other systems. But as long as you have a good base, which it appears we do, at the end of the day the future will be determined by how the guys actually play. You can look at the white sox and say they are ahead of us in their rebuild. And they are. But until their prospects make it or our prospects bust, you never know.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I think the letter from Avila is clear.....they are not going to be spending significant $$, at least not until they have a competitive reason to.

Yeah, sustainable is the word of the day. But that also doesn't mean they won't spend any money. It mostly means they won't have four or five guys making 15 per year or more. We started the season with Cabrera, Verlander, upton, Zimmermann, Sanchez, and Victor accounting for close to 130 million in salary, and that doesn't include Kinsler. 

That's not going to happen again for a long time, if ever. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Shelton said:

Yeah, sustainable is the word of the day. But that also doesn't mean they won't spend any money. It mostly means they won't have four or five guys making 15 per year or more. We started the season with Cabrera, Verlander, upton, Zimmermann, Sanchez, and Victor accounting for close to 130 million in salary, and that doesn't include Kinsler. 

That's not going to happen again for a long time, if ever. 

I would imagine never.  Hopefully the FO figures out how to build a good farm system so they can win with $120 - $150M rather than $200M (in today's $$).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Thinking on the top 100 thing, it's not outside the realm of possibility that we could have the following guys on a top 100 list this offseason.

perez

burrows

manning 

faedo

jeimer 

paredes

 

and then there are guys outside the top 100 that are at least interesting enough to see major league futures like:

daz

hill

funkhouser

lugo

 

and that's just thr SPs and position players. There are relievers that count for something, too. Only five of the above guys were in the system prior to the trades, so it's easy to feel better about the future. 

That said, it's not like the system is awesome relative to other teams. Maybe it is ranked in the teens overall. I have no idea because I don't follow other systems. But as long as you have a good base, which it appears we do, at the end of the day the future will be determined by how the guys actually play. You can look at the white sox and say they are ahead of us in their rebuild. And they are. But until their prospects make it or our prospects bust, you never know.  

Paredes..hmm...seems to me that Daz is a clear cut above him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, sabretooth said:

I would imagine never.  Hopefully the FO figures out how to build a good farm system so they can win with $120 - $150M rather than $200M (in today's $$).

I only hesitate to say never because you never know what can happen. Did anyone expect that the Detroit Tigers would become what they were over the last decade? A team that was in the playoffs year after year, and with one of the highest payrolls in the game? 

It was less than two years ago that Avila willingly created this monster. And it could have worked if zimm and upton produced. I don't put it past any team/owner to do that again. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Paredes..hmm...seems to me that Daz is a clear cut above him.

Paredes is all the rage right now. But I don't really know anything. Seems awfully similar to Adames when we traded him for Price. You perform in the Midwest league at that age and things change. 

Good on Daz for having a great second half though. He should not be dismissed by any means. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Shelton said:

That said, it's not like the system is awesome relative to other teams. Maybe it is ranked in the teens overall. I have no idea because I don't follow other systems. But as long as you have a good base, which it appears we do, at the end of the day the future will be determined by how the guys actually play. You can look at the white sox and say they are ahead of us in their rebuild. And they are. But until their prospects make it or our prospects bust, you never know.  

I think the position players kill our system. We have some very good SP prospects and a good amount of pitching depth beyond the top 100 guys, but the positional players don't have a guy with a reasonable ceiling of a potential star, and there's very poor depth beyond the 9th or 10th guy.

The only positive is of those 10 guys, all but McMillin will almost certainly start at advanced A-ball or higher next year. So they've all gotten through the 1st bust phase in their development (barring maybe hill and his bat). (I just made this up, but it seems the 1st bust phase is transition from college or another country to A-ball, the 2nd bust phase is the jump to AA, and the 3rd bust phase is the jump to MLB).

I'm still hoping we'll get a good number 1.5-2 WAR guys out of this, but I think other systems are much better positioned to make something like that a reality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Paredes is all the rage right now. But I don't really know anything. Seems awfully similar to Adames when we traded him for Price. You perform in the Midwest league at that age and things change. 

Good on Daz for having a great second half though. He should not be dismissed by any means. 

I think they're similar. Paredes is younger and certainly had hype and a major hot-streak after the trade, but Daz may have had a breakout his past 2 months.

I think West Michigan is a pitcher's park even in a pitcher's park league, and I'm not sure Lakeland is that much better, so who knows what their numbers will be next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I would imagine never.  Hopefully the FO figures out how to build a good farm system so they can win with $120 - $150M rather than $200M (in today's $$).

Gibby said $150M-$170M as far as payroll goes on the telecast. Top end for a mid-market team.

I don't think there's a floor on that the next 2 seasons, but after that I would think it builds back up as the on-field product dictates.

Someone I'm sure has done an estimate, but payroll might not be over $130M next year, before whatever small FA signings take place. That assumes a Kinsler trade. For 2019, the only real increases will be arbitration. VMart's $18M and Anibal's $5M buyout will be gone, as well as Iggy's ~$5-$6M, unless he's extended. So welcome to Detroit Manny Machado.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Gibby said $150M-$170M as far as payroll goes on the telecast. Top end for a mid-market team.

I don't think there's a floor on that the next 2 seasons, but after that I would think it builds back up as the on-field product dictates.

Someone I'm sure has done an estimate, but payroll might not be over $130M next year, before whatever small FA signings take place. That assumes a Kinsler trade. For 2019, the only real increases will be arbitration. VMart's $18M and Anibal's $5M buyout will be gone, as well as Iggy's ~$5-$6M, unless he's extended. So welcome to Detroit Manny Machado.

Wow....I have to say I'm surprised.  I guessed that they were gearing down to no higher than the level of the other AL Central teams until the next competitive phase.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, sabretooth said:

Wow....I have to say I'm surprised.  I guessed that they were gearing down to no higher than the level of the other AL Central teams until the next competitive phase.

wouldn't treat it as fact, but i think he'd have a better idea than most.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still don't know where to assign buyouts fornpayroll purposes. The buyouts are due as part of this year's accounting if they are paid. But once the season is over, does it matter?

anyway, a lot of money came off the books this year. And more will come off after next year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I still don't know where to assign buyouts fornpayroll purposes. The buyouts are due as part of this year's accounting if they are paid. But once the season is over, does it matter?

anyway, a lot of money came off the books this year. And more will come off after next year. 

for luxury tax purposes, the buyouts are averaged into the guaranteed years like any other guaranteed salary. so anibal will count as 0 for 2018, Kinsler for $7M (assuming $12M salary minus $5M un-exercised buyout).

for estimating payroll, i think you just add it for what year you are buying out. doesn't really matter tho, but it seems to be the convention of cot's, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, sabretooth said:

I think the letter from Avila is clear.....they are not going to be spending significant $$, at least not until they have a competitive reason to.

And really that's the smart way to go.  Get your foundation built and then spend to fill the gaps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

And really that's the smart way to go.  Get your foundation built and then spend to fill the gaps.

At this point, yes....there's no point in trying to revive the model they had going into this season or in any prior season.  They have definitively burned down the past.

Miggy will be stuck here for better or worse simply because there's no point in trading him.  I happen to like that in a "what if Dale Murphy had been able to stick around until the Braves won it all?" kind of way; 'cause I want to see Miggy win it here, and it implies that we will be a contender by 2023. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, sabretooth said:

At this point, yes....there's no point in trying to revive the model they had going into this season or in any prior season.  They have definitively burned down the past.

Miggy will be stuck here for better or worse simply because there's no point in trading him.  I happen to like that in a "what if Dale Murphy had been able to stick around until the Braves won it all?" kind of way, and it implies that we will be a contender by 2023. :)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

At this point, yes....there's no point in trying to revive the model they had going into this season or in any prior season.  They have definitively burned down the past.

Miggy will be stuck here for better or worse simply because there's no point in trading him.  I happen to like that in a "what if Dale Murphy had been able to stick around until the Braves won it all?" kind of way; 'cause I want to see Miggy win it here, and it implies that we will be a contender by 2023. :)

Damn.  He missed out on Atlanta's ascension and Philadelphia's unforeseen run in 1993.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

At this point, yes....there's no point in trying to revive the model they had going into this season or in any prior season.  They have definitively burned down the past.

Miggy will be stuck here for better or worse simply because there's no point in trading him.  I happen to like that in a "what if Dale Murphy had been able to stick around until the Braves won it all?" kind of way; 'cause I want to see Miggy win it here, and it implies that we will be a contender by 2023. :)

Willie Horton's last ounce of value had been squeezed out by the Mariners in about 1979, but in late 1984 some Tiger fans wanted the team to sign him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd have no problem spending money on a guy(s) in the 2019 offseason even if they are a couple years away from competing then as long as they plan on them still being good at the time they do compete.  Much like the 06 Tigers, they signed Pudge and Magglio a couple years before they intended on competing but when they were ready to they already had them in their stable.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      95,482
    • Total Posts
      2,718,535
  • Who's Online (See full list)

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
×