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I'm getting ready to set up the new generator I bought on Sunday, as our old one crapped out at the end of Hurricane Matthew nearly a year ago.

Laundry getting done, rearranging of frozen items in deep freezer is happening, and storage of drinking water/ice began Monday.

Let's hope this storm pulls a Hurricane Floyd and completely misses the east coast of FL, but for now it is headed right for Miami.  Stores and gas stations are swamped.

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If this model holds, and really anything could happen, Irma's eye will hit my town around 11pm Sunday.

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It's looking like it might barely graze Puerto Rico, which I am glad of as I have friends living there and hopefully less damage than a direct hit.  The photographs I'm seeing of Saint Martin are heartbreaking.

Stay safe!

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4 minutes ago, Melody said:

It's looking like it might barely graze Puerto Rico, which I am glad of as I have friends living there and hopefully less damage than a direct hit.  The photographs I'm seeing of Saint Martin are heartbreaking.

Stay safe!

Thank you.

The people living on the islands are really at risk, and as always, I wish them the very best.

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Stay safe, I've been following this guy for a while. He runs a weather forecasting business in Va and has been pretty good with forecasting winter storms in the middle Atlantic region as well

wxsynopsis

Quote

****URGENT: IRMA REMAINS A DANGEROUS, CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. WINDS AT 185MPH, PRESSURE AT 922MB. IRMA NOW HEADING NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL KEEP IRMA NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND CUBA, THIS MEANS IRMA'S EYEWALL WILL HAVE LITTLE LAND INTERACTION****

IRMA IS HEADING NORTHWEST, AIMING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. CURRENT TRACK HAS SHIFTED EAST, IRMA IS PROJECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND CUBA...WITH LITTLE LAND INTERACTION, IRMA WILL LIKELY HOLD CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. IRMA IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SLOW DOWN ONCE IN THE BAHAMAS AND ONCE AGAIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS. IRMA LIKELY TO PASS FLORIDA TO THE EAST, RIDE UP THE COAST AND LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CHARLESTON, SC AND WILMINGTON, NC AS A POTENTIAL CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IRMA AND POST WHEN WARRANTED. UPDATES TO BE OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE

 

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11 minutes ago, CMRivdog said:

Stay safe, I've been following this guy for a while. He runs a weather forecasting business in Va and has been pretty good with forecasting winter storms in the middle Atlantic region as well

wxsynopsis

 

Thanks for this.  The models are changing every three hours and they are trending East since yesterday afternoon/eve.  I really hope it keeps trending away from the Atlantic Seaboard and just stays out over water.

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The guy posts updates regularly on Facebook, he's also on Twitter with links

BTW I agree after Harvey we don't need any more of these monsters to reach land. I'm old enough to remember back to Agnes in the early 70s, A Charleston-Wilimington landing would bring Agnes like flooding as far west as Roanoke Va, not to mention wind damage and flooding to SE VA.

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Doesn't sound like this storm is one to trifle with.  Luckily there seems to be a much better read on its potential impact than on Harvey (which is not to say anyone botched forecasting Harvey).

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A buddy of mine works for the National Weather Service in San Angelo, TX, and he's one of my two go-to guys for weather.  I went to bed resting easy that we would be in the clear for this hurricane based on his evaluation, and woke up to his dire warning that the model kept changing--and that he's glad I'm ready for a major hurricane.

No bueno.

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PSA from a friend who is a Cigna employee:

Quote

Friends, if you have Cigna medical, we have lifted the refill too soon edits on prescriptions in Florida, South Carolina and the costal areas in Georgia (per FEMA). Go get your refills now!! Please do not wait! If you were in Georgia and do not know if you qualify please call the phone number on the back of your CIGNA ID card and a customer service associate will be happy to help you. Please stay safe!

 

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Not looking forward to this weekend. Each update seems to make it worse for Daytona Beach. I'll be headed to Gainesville on Friday, so hopefully my apartment will make it through while I'm away. Stay safe everyone! 

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****ALERT: URGENT!!!! IRMA REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. IRMA NOW TRACKING N/NW, AND BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY ONCE AGAIN.****

Lots to talk about, so first lets take a look at the recent stats on Irma:

Strength- Category 5 on the Saffir Simpson Scale
Winds- 185mph
Pressure- 916mb
Movement- WNW 16mph

Irma has obliterated the northern Leeward Islands and portions of the Virgin Islands. Several islands in the region are reporting 90%-98% of structures have been destroyed on the islands that went under the eyewall earlier today. Catastrophic damage, and the toll on human life in the region is yet to be known in full. Irma is absolutely remarkable in every way, and what makes Irma more remarkable is how it has been able to maintain Category 5 strength with 185mph winds for over 32hrs now (new all-time record for the Atlantic and Pacific, longest duration peak cyclone). This is unprecedented, no other hurricane, cyclone, or typhoon have ever done this before.

Looking at the latest imagery on Irma, there's an eyewall replacement cycle that has begun a few hours ago. Whats very unusual about this EWRC is that hurricanes weaken and lose their core, sometimes briefly other times they never recover. Irma has done the opposite, and is now rapidly strengthening while undergoing the EWRC, Irma is bombing significantly. Eyewall is going from nearly 20 nautical miles to, once completed, 60 nautical miles. On top of the eyewall growing large, the overall size of Irma is starting to rapidly expand. What this means is Irma's size is growing, likely will double in size over the next 12-18hrs...and have a massive windfield.

Along with this apparent deepening phase, its now visible that Irma is beginning to shift N/NW than the track WNW that the NOAA NHC indicated at 8pm. I have included a split image with this post, where you can see how Irma is tracking off to the N/NW than WNW. What this means is Irma is now tracking outside of the NOAA NHC projected path/cone, and is also starting to track more to the east of model consensus. Putting this into consideration, Irma will likely stay off the Florida coast as it begins its trek north this weekend, keeping the core of highest winds off the Florida peninsula. With this earlier than expected N/NW shift, this would mean Irma will likely track more north and landfall anywhere from the NC/SC border to Wilmington, NC vs what the GFS/EURO been showing with a landfall near the GA/SC border. On current projectory to the N/NW this will keep Irma's core over water with little land interaction. Irma is likely to keep Category 5 strength to Florida and points north. A small chance that Irma could drop to a Category 4 but due to warm SST's and lack of shear/dry air, Irma would likely regain Category 5 intensity.

A wildcard factor to what will happen with Irma is newly developed Hurricane Jose. Jose is currently a good distance from Irma, but Irma is expected to slow down once over the bahamas, as Jose is expected to increase speed. Jose will come close proximity to Irma, and this will likely cause a "fujiwara effect", similar to what happened last year with Nicole and Matthew. If you remember, Matthew was projected to come up to the GA/SC coast but Nicole caught up to Matthew and help curve Matthew to the N/NE. In this case, Jose will be to Irma's southeast and as Jose tries to move W, this will cause Irma to steer more to the N/NW and maybe eventually due N. This will cause a landfall solution north of guidance and NHC track, with landfall somewhere near Wilmington. In addition to this "fujiwara effect", the close proximity of Jose to Irma will cause moisture bands from Jose to feed/pump into Irma. Irma is already a dangerous Cat 5 hurricane, and with warm SST's and lack of dry air/shear Irma needs no additional help. However, Jose's moisture bands will pump excess/abundant moisture into Irma. This does 2 things: this causes Irma to hold intensity after passing east of Florida and this also cause Irma to hold intensity through landfall...causing a slow weakening phase after landfall. Irma would likely hold hurricane status after landfall for maybe 12hrs or more. I included graphics from the GFS and EURO showing how Irma and Jose have joined moisture bands and you can see the "fujiwara effect" steering the 2 systems. 

So, to summarize Irma remains a monster, catatsrophic Category 5 hurricane. Internal process such as the eyewall replacement cycle are not weakening Irma, Irma is holding intensity and beginning to bomb/deepen/strengthen. Irma is now beginning to track North/Northwest and not West/Northwest as NOAA NHC states. Latest GFS/EURO show Irma and Jose to have joined moisture bands, and steering each other through whats known as the "fujiwara effect". This is creating a track more north and east of guidance, from both models and the NOAA NHC. Projected landfall on this path would be somewhere between NC/SC border and Wilmington, NC. Intensity likely to be atleast a strong Category 4 sometime between Monday evening and Wednesday morning, timing issues are present so this projected timeframe likely will change. 

****ALERT: IF YOU LIVE FROM MIAMI, FLORIDA TO WILMINGTON, NC......YOU NEED TO PREPARE FOR A LANDFALLING CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SAFEGUARD PROPERTY AND LIVES NEED TO BE TAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. IF YOU LIVE ALONG THE COAST AND YOUR AREA FALLS UNDER THE PROJECTED PATH AND APPEARS TO BE IN THREAT OF A LANDFALL, YOU SHOULD NOT WAIT TO EVACUATE****

The latest FB post from WXSynopsis

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It's fake news.  It's not real.  It's just to sell bottled water and supplies...................Then go out out on a boat in the Atlantic in the Keys, Rush.  I dare you.............for once put your money where your fat mouth is.      

 

 

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3 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

It's fake news.  It's not real.  It's just to sell bottled water and supplies...................Then go out out on a boat in the Atlantic in the Keys, Rush.  I dare you.............for once put your money where your fat mouth is.      

 

 

Said a guy not putting up hurricane shutters this morning. 

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17 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

Said a guy not putting up hurricane shutters this morning. 

Rush Limbaugh said that not me.   He must be losing listeners to Alex Jones so he's doubling down on the science denier part of it.    But not enough balls to get on a boat and prove his theory. 

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5 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Rush Limbaugh said that not me.   He must be losing listeners to Alex Jones so he's doubling down on the science denier part of it.    But not enough balls to get on a boat and prove his theory. 

Please leave political stuff in other threads. 

TIA 

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12 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

Please leave political stuff in other threads. 

TIA 

No, I won't.  Not when he uses a major disaster like denying  a Hurricane.   He politicized it not me and I am calling him out.   

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This is like someone getting pissed off when their senile grandmother thinks the neighbors are stealing her cats that have run away. 

What did you think Rush would think? 

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30 minutes ago, Yoda said:

This is like someone getting pissed off when their senile grandmother thinks the neighbors are stealing her cats that have run away. 

What did you think Rush would think? 

Word. I stumble across his radio show only occasionally and it seems that, rather than being absurd to point out absurdity, he is being absurd to try to maintain an audience.

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2 hours ago, Yoda said:

This is like someone getting pissed off when their senile grandmother thinks the neighbors are stealing her cats that have run away. 

What did you think Rush would think? 

But the neighbors *did* steal the cats.

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