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2018 Draft Pick Watch

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25 minutes ago, chasfh said:

What does Lynn Henning mean when he says the Tigers doing psychological profiling "doesn't put [them] in exclusive company"? Is this his sly way of saying everybody else was doing that already and we're the last ones to that party?

Yes.  I mentioned somewhere else that during some down time I looked at the Boston Red Sox media guide.  They had several staff members dedicated to the psychological arena.  I don't remember the specifics but it did surprise me on the number.

 

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So I looked it up.... if you are so inclined check out page 56.

 

 

sox_mental.PNG

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4 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Yes.  I mentioned somewhere else that during some down time I looked at the Boston Red Sox media guide.  They had several staff members dedicated to the psychological arena.  I don't remember the specifics but it did surprise me on the number.

 

Well, not surprising to me that the Tigers would be way behind the curve on this, since it represents innovative thinking.

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The Tigers have been doing stuff on the psychological side for years; dating back to the 2008-2010 time frame off the top of my head. I'm sure it wasn't as robust as some other organizations (and possibly still isn't), but they originally started with a "Performance Enhancement Coach" (Brian Peterson) and they've had some other roles that were in this arena over the years.

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When I saw that Avila was playing cute yesterday on the 1-1 pick:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2018/05/30/al-avila-draft-detroit-tigers-first-pick/657886002/

I was wondering, assuming that it's true the organization is still deliberating—and I see no upside for them to be coy to throw off other teams, since they're in the driver's seat and the money's already worked out—I'm wondering whether there's a last minute dispute between the analytics people and the scouting people.

If the scouting people are in control, they're going to take Mize, which fits the Tigers' MO: draft the highest ranked power pitcher available who's doing well right now, irrespective of his history with injury or anything else. That's certainly Mize. And the Tigers have been playing the pitchers numbers game for some years now: collect as many live arms as they can and see what ends up sticking to the Comerica clubhouse wall. (Hopefully we don't end up with going through something like the Drumright/Greisinger/Gasper/Anderson draft run debacle all over again.)

On the flip side, I can see the analytics people raising red flags about Mize's injury history, the flatness of his four-seamer and issues with his delivery (as described at Fangraphs), on which they may have presented evidence to Avila that pitchers of that ilk don't develop well. Also, they may be stumping for a position player both to balance out the top of the prospect chain, and because they are far less prone to failing to hit their ceiling because of injury.

There's no way to know, of course, but if this is what's going on, I suppose I'd be happy just to learn that Avila is even considering Analytics' point of view on it.

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8 minutes ago, Microline133 said:

The Tigers have been doing stuff on the psychological side for years; dating back to the 2008-2010 time frame off the top of my head. I'm sure it wasn't as robust as some other organizations (and possibly still isn't), but they originally started with a "Performance Enhancement Coach" (Brian Peterson) and they've had some other roles that were in this arena over the years.

Thanks for the insight. Do you have any feel for how their psychological approach compares with other organizations? Meaning what they focus on versus what other teams do?

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20 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Thanks for the insight. Do you have any feel for how their psychological approach compares with other organizations? Meaning what they focus on versus what other teams do?

I do have a sense, though I can't get into some of the specifics. Overall, I'd say they're probably about average on the psychological front.

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The Luke Heimlich thing.

If Heimlich did do what the parents says the child claims, he was thirteen to fifteen at the time, meaning he was still a child himself, not an adult. Children do inappropriate things a lot, which is part of the growing up process, and is also the reason we typically don't throw them into prison and throw away the key for doing inappropriate things, even if those things qualify as crimes. Their frontal lobes aren't close to being fully developed, and they understandably make decisions that would be bad if full-grown adults made them. This should be remembered.

The stories linked to here seem to indicate strong mitigating evidence suggesting that even though the felony plea looked like a straightforward admission of guilt, there's a reasonable case to be made that Heimlich might not have done these deeds after all, and pleaded out to avoid interrupting his academic and baseball endeavors. Taking the stories at face value, all indications are that he took his lumps, passed probation with flying colors, and every authority who encountered him during the process fully endorses his full integration back into regular society. He even drew applause in court at his final hearing.

All that said: there are two stories in play here: the story about Heimlich molesting his niece; and the story about his plausible denials and heroic journey through the probation process. The first story is easy to understand and taps into dark, visceral emotions. The second story is complicated and requires a good deal of critical thinking to understand and embrace.

Which story do you think is going to stick with the public?

I think Heimlich is a dark horse to get even a late round draft pick. First of all, a battery of klieg lights would be shining on the organization that selects him and they would be forced to defend, over and over and for weeks and months afterward, why they even selected a (technically) admitted child molester. They might have a good answer for the questions, but I promise you, it would never be enough for a lot of baseball fans and, more importantly, non-baseball fans, including people who hate sports, who hear about the kid getting drafted and have no interest in hearing the complicated story requiring the critical thinking. Would any organization want to jump into that quicksand? I have my doubts.

And secondly, even if Heimlich did get drafted, he’ll be moving out of a cloistered, protected environment of educated teammates and coaches into a dog-eat-dog environment where his success means someone else's failure. And he would be coming in with a huge scarlet CM on his chest. Teammates might shun him; coaches might give him short shrift on instruction; and fans at games at which he appear would certainly have a field day hurling ugly chants in his direction, and in the direction of his teammates. Again, what organization wants to put themselves through that?

If I had to put a dollar on an outcome, I'd bet June will be the last time Heimlich throws a pitch in a game at that high a level ever again.

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

the flatness of his four-seamer and issues with his delivery (as described at Fangraphs),

The flatness or lack thereof comes from spin and release angle. Certainly guys can vary their release angle, the question is can a guy increase his spin significantly - is it just hand structure/finger length genetics etc, or can a pitcher do things to change it? It will be interesting now the knowledge of the value of spin has been established to see what trainers figure out about how to teach guys to maximize it.

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14 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

The flatness or lack thereof comes from spin and release angle. Certainly guys can vary their release angle, the question is can a guy increase his spin significantly - is it just hand structure/finger length genetics etc, or can a pitcher do things to change it? It will be interesting now the knowledge of the value of spin has been established to see what trainers figure out about how to teach guys to maximize it.

We have no way of knowing how spin applied by prior generations of pitchers compares with today's generation, but I do wonder how much of that has contributed to increased strikeout rates. Statcast started reporting it during the 2015 season, which itself saw a +0.1% increase in strikeout rate over the prior year. Since then, year-over-year K rates have been up +4.2%, then +2.7%, and so far +4.0% this year.

I'm sure there are other contributing factors to the skyrocketing strikeout rate, but knowledge and application of spin to the pitch may well be significant as well.

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4 hours ago, Buddha said:

i wouldnt jump to that conclusion.  

Let me rephrase -- it sounds like his defense lawyer did a poor job either negotiating better options or advising the 15-year old client about his options.  Assuming he is actually innocent, is there a set of circumstances under which it would be advisable for even a minor to plead guilty to such a crime in light of sex offender registrations and general public perception of admitted sex offenders?

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8 minutes ago, diaspora04 said:

Let me rephrase -- it sounds like his defense lawyer did a poor job either negotiating better options or advising the 15-year old client about his options.  Assuming he is actually innocent, is there a set of circumstances under which it would be advisable for even a minor to plead guilty to such a crime in light of sex offender registrations and general public perception of admitted sex offenders?

It was never supposed to be public.   It only got out because of a mistake.

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45 minutes ago, diaspora04 said:

Let me rephrase -- it sounds like his defense lawyer did a poor job either negotiating better options or advising the 15-year old client about his options.  Assuming he is actually innocent, is there a set of circumstances under which it would be advisable for even a minor to plead guilty to such a crime in light of sex offender registrations and general public perception of admitted sex offenders?

absolutely.  in any he said she said case there is a chance the jury does not believe you.  especially if it had no witnesses.  if offered the chance at avoiding jail time, its often wise to take the plea.

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4 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

It was never supposed to be public.   It only got out because of a mistake.

Maybe that is the rub.  Unfortunately, stuff like that has a way of getting out.  By contrast, nobody leaks some one else's straight-A report cards.

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Here's a thought exercise...there's an Ohtani level talent sitting there on the board but your psychological profile suggests he's a future Son of Sam.  Do you pick him any way and always try to stay behind him?

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Buddha said:

absolutely.  in any he said she said case there is a chance the jury does not believe you.  especially if it had no witnesses.  if offered the chance at avoiding jail time, its often wise to take the plea.

And especially if the accuser is a tiny 6 year old girl versus an adult-sized high school boy.

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The more I read about Bart the more intrigued I get by him particularly with Jake Rogers struggles this season.  I still prefer Mize but I think I'm leaning towards Bart if we go another direction.   It sounds like at the very least he is going to be a plus plus defender at catcher with plus power.  Even if the on base skills don't develop there is alot of value in that and if they do then you're looking at a perennial All Star.  

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Law on Olney's podcast saying he thinks Mize could be in the Strasburg timeline, joining the Tigers in June of 19. He said, as he has before, that he could be ready for bullpen duty later this season if the Tigers were contending.

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I still say that our best course may be to draft Mize and flip him to a contender next season.  I'm sure contenders would be lining up for 6+ years of a pitcher as ready as Mize.  

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12 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I still say that our best course may be to draft Mize and flip him to a contender next season.  I'm sure contenders would be lining up for 6+ years of a pitcher as ready as Mize.  

With Avilas miracle rebuild we might be that contender.  

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

I still say that our best course may be to draft Mize and flip him to a contender next season.  I'm sure contenders would be lining up for 6+ years of a pitcher as ready as Mize.  

I doubt we'd get better than a top 30 prospect for him...let's not try to overthink this here guys

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Kind of hard to imagine the Tigers bringing up Mize by next June. I was thinking best case, it's more like the JV model. Maybe a couple of spot starts next year. Up for good in early 20.

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27 minutes ago, irvink said:

Kind of hard to imagine the Tigers bringing up Mize by next June. I was thinking best case, it's more like the JV model. Maybe a couple of spot starts next year. Up for good in early 20.

I would prefer this.

Couple September starts when the 40-man can all be called up...

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If he is a guy that could be part of a ML bullpen right now, then I wouldn’t mind seeing them put him in Erie after the draft and see what he has against advanced prospects. 

If he looks ready a year from now, so be it. 

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