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RandyMarsh

2018 Draft Pick Watch

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13 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Those rapists and wife beater didnt do it to a kid. That's my point. For whatever reason people have no forgiveness when kids are involved.

I agree.  It's an ugly conversation.  Sex is hard wired.  If you see 6 year old's as sexual, no matter your age, you have a problem in the brain.  Life in jail, or very heavy supervision in the community.  It's not something that can be undone.  Violence towards an adult female, is also inexcusable but with support a person can be rehabilitated.  

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11 minutes ago, kdog said:

Did Avila go on FSD last night and make a Mize/Verlander comparison?

Rod asked and Avila didnt take the bait

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Woodbery 

Tigers GM Al Avila on the @Foxsportsdet broadcast was asked by Rod to compare college-age Justin Verlander with Casey Mize.

 

"Casey Mize is, at this stage, more refined, more advanced

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7 minutes ago, kdog said:

Woodbery 

Tigers GM Al Avila on the @Foxsportsdet broadcast was asked by Rod to compare college-age Justin Verlander with Casey Mize.

 

"Casey Mize is, at this stage, more refined, more advanced

That's an out of context quote. 

The full thing, was something along the lines of Verlander in college was throwing 100 but had herky mechanics that needed to be smoothed out. he struck out guys but he got hit. 

Mize...and at this point avila struggled to find the right word to describe the K/walk to ratio...stumbled over a few words before saying refined to describe it. 

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Avila is not a good communicator in general so stumbles are par for the course. If he meant that Verlander had more upside at this point in the draft cycle, that makes sense. Mize is pretty close to being a finished product.

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1 minute ago, kdog said:

Avila is not a good communicator in general so stumbles are par for the course. If he meant that Verlander had more upside at this point in the draft cycle, that makes sense. Mize is pretty close to being a finished product.

I took at it as they are different pitchersso im not comparing them, but let me describe them at this point in their careers.. 

Verlander throws hard but didn't always know where it was going. 

Mize throws less hard but is more refined in his mechanics and has more control. 

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I nominate you to be the Tigers director of GM communications.

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3 minutes ago, kdog said:

I nominate you to be the Tigers director of GM communications.

Nah I already got a job like that. Which its why its not hard to see what Avila was saying. Lazy work by Woodbery. If you listen to the entire exchange it was clear. That quote makes it look like he directly compared the two, by saying they are the same but Mize is more polished, which he didn't. 

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At worst you have a really good #2 hitter and a plus glove and you have it for a long time.  If the power develops to the 10-15 HR, 30+ 2B area that some scouts project, then you have a wrecking crew type #2 hitter with a plus glove.  I am more than willing to take that bet at 1-1.  

Granted...I'm not going to complain if they take Mize because he profiles as a  genuine front end starter , but I see Madrigal as a relatively rare opportunity to solve a key position on an accelerated timeline at a point in our history where we don't have a guy who is anywhere near as talented at that position in the system

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To me I think Madigral has a high floor low ceiling.  I'm fairly confident he will be a regular in the big leagues which obviously has value but I don't foresee anything more.   Where as Mize has top of the rotation potential and should be a back end starter at worst.   Basically I think if you were to go looking for players outside of the draft you'd have a harder time acquiring somebody like Mize than you would a Madigral.    Of course I'm no scout and shouldn't pretend to be one but this is just my uneducated 2 cents.  

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10 minutes ago, Lei Pong said:

At worst you have a really good #2 hitter and a plus glove and you have it for a long time.  If the power develops to the 10-15 HR, 30+ 2B area that some scouts project, then you have a wrecking crew type #2 hitter with a plus glove.  I am more than willing to take that bet at 1-1.  

Granted...I'm not going to complain if they take Mize because he profiles as a  genuine front end starter , but I see Madrigal as a relatively rare opportunity to solve a key position on an accelerated timeline at a point in our history where we don't have a guy who is anywhere near as talented at that position in the system

At worst you have a player that never sniffs MLB.   To call "At worst you have a really good #2 hitter and a plus glove and you have it for a long time. " the floor for a draft pick ignores decades of other results.

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5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

To me I think Madigral has a high floor low ceiling.  I'm fairly confident he will be a regular in the big leagues which obviously has value but I don't foresee anything more.   Where as Mize has top of the rotation potential and should be a back end starter at worst.   Basically I think if you were to go looking for players outside of the draft you'd have a harder time acquiring somebody like Mize than you would a Madigral.    Of course I'm no scout and shouldn't pretend to be one but this is just my uneducated 2 cents.  

Yeah, folks like Law and Callis think Mize can be a number one, a real star. Those are always extremely hard to acquire. JV was really the last one we drafted. 

But I like Madrigal a lot too. And as I posted yesterday, Kiley and Eric at Fangraphs don't see much difference btwn Mize and Madrigal, saying Mize would be the 33rd best prospect in all of baseball today, Madrigal 35 and I also think Madrigal's floor is higher. I still like the star upside of Mize more. 

But... If Madrigal is willing to take say 6 or so million to sign v Mize's 8 and that means AA can get another top 20 or so draft prospect to fall to him at 44 ... that makes it more of a decision. I still think you go with the star upside of Mize, but I wouldn't complain if AA went the other way. 

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And with Mize you could have a guy who blows his arm out in his first year..if you want to quibble over "using "at worst" as opposed to "based on scouting projections of ceiling vs floor...at worst" knock yourself out.  The point is...they're similar profiles.  Both are viewed as relatively safe bets to hit their floors, the question becomes which ceiling has a higher value and which floor can you live with at 1-1.  

I personally don't see the magic in 1-1 vs 1-8 or whatever, but some people do and that's their perogative

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On 5/28/2018 at 3:41 PM, Keepleyland2 said:

He pleaded guilty

people plead guilty to things all the time to avoid jail.  

he served the punishment he was given and shouldnt be prohibited from working again.

i would have no problem with the tigers taking him.

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i would take madrigal over mize.  less risk and we need bats.

if they take mize, i wouldnt be upset.  but i would take the best hitter given what's in the system at the moment.

mize is the safe pick that will come without criticism so thats likely what they will do.

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15 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i would take madrigal over mize.  less risk and we need bats.

if they take mize, i wouldnt be upset.  but i would take the best hitter given what's in the system at the moment.

mize is the safe pick that will come without criticism so thats likely what they will do.

You take the highest rated player on your board, without regard to position, risk is factored into the ranking.

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10 minutes ago, Longgone said:

You take the highest rated player on your board, without regard to position, risk is factored into the ranking.

ok.  then i would rank madrigal higher on my board than mize.

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I would take Mize and the decision is an easy one. To this day very few teams even have 3 or 4 solid starters. Not going to pas up 95 with command having success against the best competition college has to offer.

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I have two questions about Mize for which answers are not available to me but for which  the Tigers should already have answers: Was it damage in his srm or just fatigue that drove the timeoffs he took previously; what kind of vertical break differentials does he get between his 4 seamer and his breaking balls? If one of those raised a red flag, then I might go another way.

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23 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I have two questions about Mize for which answers are not available to me but for which  the Tigers should already have answers: Was it damage in his srm or just fatigue that drove the timeoffs he took previously; what kind of vertical break differentials does he get between his 4 seamer and his breaking balls? If one of those raised a red flag, then I might go another way.

He said the forearm issue was because of his slider release point.  Once he fixed the release point, the forearm problem went away and never came back.

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29 minutes ago, MDMAzing said:

He said the forearm issue was because of his slider release point.  Once he fixed the release point, the forearm problem went away and never came back.

That is good to hear, though it is still a somewhat different question than whether he damaged his UCL before he figured it out.

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2 hours ago, irvink said:

Yeah, folks like Law and Callis think Mize can be a number one, a real star. Those are always extremely hard to acquire. JV was really the last one we drafted. 

But I like Madrigal a lot too. And as I posted yesterday, Kiley and Eric at Fangraphs don't see much difference btwn Mize and Madrigal, saying Mize would be the 33rd best prospect in all of baseball today, Madrigal 35 and I also think Madrigal's floor is higher. I still like the star upside of Mize more. 

But... If Madrigal is willing to take say 6 or so million to sign v Mize's 8 and that means AA can get another top 20 or so draft prospect to fall to him at 44 ... that makes it more of a decision. I still think you go with the star upside of Mize, but I wouldn't complain if AA went the other way. 

The problem is that their are two other teams (KC and Tampa) with a bigger purse to spend, and they have multiple picks before the Tigers 2nd rounder.  They won't be able to spend more than slot for their 2nd rounder.

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1 minute ago, cruzer1 said:

The problem is that their are two other teams (KC and Tampa) with a bigger purse to spend, and they have multiple picks before the Tigers 2nd rounder.  They won't be able to spend more than slot for their 2nd rounder.

Why would they not be able to spend more than slot?

You could argue that bc of the KC/TB picks/$ they won't be able to entice a top 20 player to slide due to contract demands, but there are plenty of good high school players worth grabbing, some that may still be there at 44 and want more than slot to sign.

It's a good point tho against taking Madrigal over Mize just to save some money, bc what we'll be able to get at 44 is not likely to change too dramatically no matter who we take at one.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Does Mize sit at 95 or can touch 95?

From minorleagueball scouting report in April:

Mize is listed at 6-3, 220, born May 1st, 1997. He has the stuff to back up his statistical dominance. His fastball has been 93-95 with peaks at 96 all spring. The pitch has above-average movement yet he commands it well, which is almost unfair considering how good his secondary stuff is.

Mize features a plus-quality cutter, a plus-quality splitter used in change-up counts, and a solid-average breaking ball (described as a slider, a slurve, or a curve depending on the source) distinct from the faster/harder cutter. The splitter is particularly nasty, described by Perfect Game as “devastating.” With four quality offerings his arsenal is unusually deep, even for a college pitcher from a major program.

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