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2018 Draft Pick Watch

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From the preview section of Law's latest draft prospect rankings.

Quote

1. Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn. The clear 1-1 talent in this draft, Mize brings only the risk associated with any starting pitcher who has had minor injuries in the past -- though he's never had the catastrophic breakdown that might truly affect his stock. He'll pitch at 92-96 with a plus-plus splitter and plus slider, and he has shown absurd control, with just 10 walks and 133 strikeouts in 95 innings heading into the SEC tournament. As long as he stays healthy, Mize is a No. 1 starter, and he should be able to contribute in the majors this fall or at the beginning of next season. He'd be the easy choice for me if I held the first overall pick.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/23583441/casey-mize-tops-mlb-draft-class

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It really is quite amazing that the tigers could plug Mize into the major league team so quickly. 

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People talk about there being nothing for Mize to improve upon but how about his velocity?  He's sitting 93-96 now but wouldn't it be possible for him to get stronger and bump a couple miles to that?  Him throwing 98 with his secondary pitches is a scary thought.

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3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

People talk about there being nothing for Mize to improve upon but how about his velocity?  He's sitting 93-96 now but wouldn't it be possible for him to get stronger and bump a couple miles to that?  Him throwing 98 with his secondary pitches is a scary thought.

That seems possible with optimal nutrition/lifting if he can get to his peak of physical strength before his arm starts trending downward. Get in the squat rack!

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Another thing about Mize, but with the advancements they are making in TJ surgery if he needed that would it really be the worst thing in the world?   It seems nowadays almost every elite pitcher has had it at some point, and with how far advanced he is, him missing a year because of surgery wouldn't be the end of the world.  This way he may be ready to get called up right when we are serious about competing instead of him using a couple years of service time while we're still a mediocre team.

 

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Not that prospect rankings mean all that much, but if Mize is considered a future #1 starter, and if he is this close to the majors, is he a top 10-15 prospect when the mid season prospect rankings come out after the draft?

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15 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Another thing about Mize, but with the advancements they are making in TJ surgery if he needed that would it really be the worst thing in the world?   It seems nowadays almost every elite pitcher has had it at some point, and with how far advanced he is, him missing a year because of surgery wouldn't be the end of the world.  This way he may be ready to get called up right when we are serious about competing instead of him using a couple years of service time while we're still a mediocre team.

 

JMO, but I greatly prefer pitchers that don’t require TJ. 

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7 minutes ago, Shelton said:

JMO, but I greatly prefer pitchers that don’t require TJ. 

Touche, but I'm just thinking worst case scenario.   If he's considered the vastly superior prospect I'd take him and roll the dice if the elbow is the "only" thing that comes back sketchy.   I'd rather take my chances on him remaining healthy or coming back just as strong if he does end up needing surgery than an inferior prospect breaking out.    Now if they have a guy that they feel is in Mize's league then I can understand shying away because of the injury but from all the scouting reports that I've read it sounds like there isn't such a player. 

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5 hours ago, Shelton said:

Not that prospect rankings mean all that much, but if Mize is considered a future #1 starter, and if he is this close to the majors, is he a top 10-15 prospect when the mid season prospect rankings come out after the draft?

Probably not right away, unless we have him pitch in the minors this year. I'd guess around the 30s to start. But he could easily be in that range at the start of next year. 

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While there have been great advancements in Tommy John, recovery is still far from automatic and  even those that do recover don't always last very long.  I still consider it pretty bad news when a pitcher needs TJ surgery, although certainly not as bad as requiring shoulder surgery.  

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Auburn playing Texas A&M in the SEC tournament.  MIze has allowed 3ER, 7H, 0BB, and 7K through 7 innings.  A&M"s pitcher is throwing a no hitter through 7.

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K-BB numbers have remained strong, but Mize has looked human these last three or so starts. Wonder if he's just getting tired? Maybe the league is catching up to him? Pressure of being THE 1-1 guy getting to him? Or just a tough stretch. 

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24 minutes ago, irvink said:

K-BB numbers have remained strong, but Mize has looked human these last three or so starts. Wonder if he's just getting tired? Maybe the league is catching up to him? Pressure of being THE 1-1 guy getting to him? Or just a tough stretch. 

Inquiring minds want to know.  But it still seems like you don't out-think this, you take the consensus number 1 guy.

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2 hours ago, irvink said:

K-BB numbers have remained strong, but Mize has looked human these last three or so starts. Wonder if he's just getting tired? Maybe the league is catching up to him? Pressure of being THE 1-1 guy getting to him? Or just a tough stretch. 

He might have to learn to throw fewer strikes. Again, going back the Porcello analogy, I think early in his career he was too focused on not walking anyone and would at times throw a strike when he shouldn't have.

It is a knock that his stuff seems to be hittable when guys do guess right. Obviously not even many 1-1s will be a Justin Verlander - but OTOH, you can't overestimate how valuable it is when a guy has stuff like JV and can say "Here is my FB in the zone - square it up if you can" and hitters still can't do better than a weak fly  ball.

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I think Mize is pretty well filled up, and I wouldn't expect a bump in velocity.  The Tigers might even have him go with more two seamers, I think he needs more ground balls in lieu of throwing fewer cutters.

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PK: Hi. Any new top of the draft tidbits for us? Mize et all?

 

 
 
Eric A Longenhagen: Still just think Mize goes 1, Bart 2, Bohm 3, probably Madrigal 4 (chance Singer), Singer 5 (Madrigal if Singer 4, chance it’s India), then Mets at 6 have been tougher to gauge.

 

 

Winter is Here: Any new information about the potential shake up at the top of the board?  Is Joey Bart really the most logical alternative if the Tigers don’t go with Mize at 1-1?
 
 
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be on Madrigal instead of Bart just because I think he’s better but it’s not as if I think that gap is gigantic. I think Mize’s injury history is such that you have a conversation about alternatives and prepare in case something happens to Mize, but still take Mize.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-fangraphs-chat-5-24/
 

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Mize was ok last night, but a&m's Dokaxis was better. Mize didn't have command of his splitter, and that caused him problems. There were a couple of lefties that gave him fits. In a lot of ways he reminds me of Fulmer.

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36 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

Mize was ok last night, but a&m's Dokaxis was better. Mize didn't have command of his splitter, and that caused him problems. There were a couple of lefties that gave him fits. In a lot of ways he reminds me of Fulmer.

I've heard the Fulmer comp before too and it makes sense. Crazy how close the draft is now. Only one more Mize start from now until then.

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I'm not sure how the trading works with drafted players, would we be able to trade him this offseason if we drafted him? I'm just curious because with how ready Mize supposedly is I wonder if we could trade him to a contender this offseason for a position prospect or two that are better than whats available in the draft.   

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From Law's latest chat.

Andrew: I’m terrified the Tigers are going to take a bat instead of Mize. Is this concern valid? 
Keith Law: That they might do so? Yes. That it would be a mistake? That’s debatable. I would take Mize. I don’t have a pick or a budget.

He also answered a question about MIze's recent "struggles".  He basically said that even though his box scores didn't look great according to the scouts he talked to they saw nothing wrong with him.  

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'm not sure how the trading works with drafted players, would we be able to trade him this offseason if we drafted him? I'm just curious because with how ready Mize supposedly is I wonder if we could trade him to a contender this offseason for a position prospect or two that are better than whats available in the draft.   

Shelton probably has the answer for sure, in the past you could not trade a drafted player for a year, but I believe the league has changed that to as soon as the WS ends.

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On 5/25/2018 at 1:18 AM, cruzer1 said:

I think Mize is pretty well filled up, and I wouldn't expect a bump in velocity.  The Tigers might even have him go with more two seamers, I think he needs more ground balls in lieu of throwing fewer cutters.

(I had meant to post this here originally - but it ended up in the wrong thread......)

There is a  Fangraphs article this week about the whether the Houston starting staff is challenging to be the best ever. Notable that the Houston coaching staff have moved guys away from throwing sinkers, and do NOT want their guys pitching to contact. LOL- I assume Jim Leyland and the Tiger pitching brain trust of the last 15 yrs or so need not apply for any gigs there.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-staff-is-the-best-ever/

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7 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

(I had meant to post this here originally - but it ended up in the wrong thread......)

There is a  Fangraphs article this week about the whether the Houston starting staff is challenging to be the best ever. Notable that the Houston coaching staff have moved guys away from throwing sinkers, and do NOT want their guys pitching to contact. LOL- I assume Jim Leyland and the Tiger pitching brain trust of the last 15 yrs or so need not apply for any gigs there.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-staff-is-the-best-ever/

Was the hole pitching to contact/sinker belief thing just born out Porcello? When he started he was 19 with like zero years big league experience so I get why throwing sinkers might be good for him. 

I don't remember JV, Max, et all being told not to strike out guys. 

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