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RandyMarsh

2018 Draft Pick Watch

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3 hours ago, irvink said:

I don't think it's anything that crazy. But Mize's agent/advisor is reading/hearing the same stuff we are and more. He's asking for the full 8 mil slot. Tigers are probably coming back with something more like 7.5, which would break Hunter Greene's draft record haul of 7.23. 

I could be wrong of course, but I think it comes down to how much of that last half mil the Tigers can keep/spread around the draft. 

I meant its more crazy that people think we'll draft someone else for signability concerns. Like, ohh Mize costs too much, let's draft player X.

I'm only pointing out the new factor that comes into play, where if we don't sign the guy it's not a giant loss. We just lose one development year and have pick 2 next year. 

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12:15

Jim in Chicago: If Casey Mize doesn’t go #1, where does he end up?

 
12:17

Kiley McDaniel: This seems to be the question of the moment. Detroit is seriously thinking about other options at 1-1, and the talk of this got around right after out mock came up. The specifics about what medicals Mize has shared, what Detroit has, what other teams have and what those medicals say is a little hazy and some of the answers are protected by HIPAA so we won’t get everything we would like to know pre draft.

12:18

Kiley McDaniel: What we do know is that Mize pitches like a 27 year old Japanese starter (lots of cutters and splitters), which is good in that he’s a finished product, good in the sense that he’s good in a unique way, not so good in the sense that he likely won’t get better. And he has enough of an injury history that we have to question (more than any other arm at the top of the draft) how teams may react to medical info that we will not be able to see.

 
12:18

Kiley McDaniel: So

 
12:19

Kiley McDaniel: If he doesn’t go 1-1, it would be due to projecting his health and once he slides past 1, it’s unclear where he would stop because we don’t know what the info would be that caused him to slide

 
12:19

Kiley McDaniel: BUT

12:28

Hinkie: If the Tigers end up passing on Casey Mize for a well below slot deal with somebody else, do the Giants jump all over Mize or will they also look for an underslot deal ?  I guess this is a long way of asking … how possible is it Mize falls to the Phillies at 1-3 ???

 
12:31

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know how things play out if Mize doesn’t go 1-1, but one team in the top 5 told me if the Tigers could be this on Mize and get off him for medicals, we’re probably not gonna like it either and there’s still plenty of good players to choose from. An exec in the top 10 told me if he’s 1-1 he just cuts Madrigal and takes him over retail priced Mize.

Out of the top 5, that gamble on a hypothetical Mize with a bad medical makes more sense with the top tier off the board. All speculative at this point and it is possible that this is all a smokescreen from Detroit but we’ve talked to some people that would know and they’re convinced the Tigers are at least heavily shopping around for alternative, at least one very plugged in person think they’ve already moved on from Mize.

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4 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

this is the stage of the process where everybody talks about how we will draft Curry over Stafford

Or it could end up happening like the late talks of Darko over Anthony did.  I sure hope not.

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Yeah, this is either an elaborate smokescreen, or they saw something in the MRI that made them nervous, or they are about to make a mistake.

 

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40 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Or it could end up happening like the late talks of Darko over Anthony did.  I sure hope not.

I don't remember that being a late decision.  I remember as soon as we found out we had the #2, it was about adding an athletic 7' Darko to an already strong team.  

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10 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

I don't remember that being a late decision.  I remember as soon as we found out we had the #2, it was about adding an athletic 7' Darko to an already strong team.  

I don't think it was a late decision on our part but the national pundits had Carmelo going number 2 for awhile.  It wasn't until Tayshauns performance in the playoffs and we were rewarded number 2 where that narrative started to change.

 

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16 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

I don't remember that being a late decision.  I remember as soon as we found out we had the #2, it was about adding an athletic 7' Darko to an already strong team.  

That's how I recall it.   It was thought he could make us into a dynasty.

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24 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

That's how I recall it.   It was thought he could make us into a dynasty.

Yeah, I remember watching the lottery where we got the number two pick and immediately hearing that Darko was our most likely pick.

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4 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

Yeah, I remember watching the lottery where we got the number two pick and immediately hearing that Darko was our most likely pick.

We had that guy that scouted Europe a lot and at the time it was thought we had a big advantage......

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22 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

We had that guy that scouted Europe a lot and at the time it was thought we had a big advantage......

We had a team that won 50 games the last two seasons and the #2 pick. Of the top 5 picks, 4 of them go on to the have HOF level careers. What could have been...

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11 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

We had that guy that scouted Europe a lot and at the time it was thought we had a big advantage......

Will Robinson favorably compared Darko to a young Wilt.

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5 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

We had a team that won 50 games the last two seasons and the #2 pick. Of the top 5 picks, 4 of them go on to the have HOF level careers. What could have been...

Yep.   Like SA adding Duncan to the Admiral.  Only we failed.

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Or it could end up happening like the late talks of Darko over Anthony did.  I sure hope not.

Except Darko was always thought to be highly rated and in consideration. At the time I didn't have a problem with Darko. 

I am taking more about a week before a draft where everyone talks themselves out of the obvious pick. Well it could be peyton manning or maybe ryan leaf. It could be the Qb that the team hasn't had for 50 years or it might be this LB from wake Forest. Etc. etc. 99/100 is just a smoke screen. 

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

I don't think it was a late decision on our part but the national pundits had Carmelo going number 2 for awhile.  It wasn't until Tayshauns performance in the playoffs and we were rewarded number 2 where that narrative started to change.

 

I think you're misrembering.

March 2003: https://www.si.com/vault/2003/03/03/338924/darko-milicic-this-17-year-old-7-footer-may-be-the-nbas-no-2-draft-pick

June 2003: https://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/22/sports/pro-basketball-after-top-3-nba-draft-will-have-lots-of-maybes.html

https://twitter.com/OldTakesExposed/status/877859624572944385/photo/1?tfw_creator=GiveMeSport&tfw_site=GiveMeSport&ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.givemesport.com%2F1083660-the-most-cringeworthy-lebron-jamesdarko-milicic-comparisons-from-the-2003-nba-draft

Edit to add: I think the Pundints only had Camerlo 2 before the playoffs for 2 reasons. A) nobody  had seen Darko yet. B) If you remember it took a ton of lottery luck for memphis to jump up to 2 and us to take their pick. 

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6 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

Will Robinson favorably compared Darko to a young Wilt.

My goodness.  That is some hyperbole.  Maybe he didn't know that the young Wilt was also a star in track and field.

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8 hours ago, irvink said:

Yeah, this is either an elaborate smokescreen, or they saw something in the MRI that made them nervous, or they are about to make a mistake.

 

That inability to see obvious places where he gets better seems to be having an effect on some of the pundits - the question is whether it has the same effect on evaluators. Kinda weird that having a fixable hole in your game might make you more desirable to some people.

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49 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

My goodness.  That is some hyperbole.  Maybe he didn't know that the young Wilt was also a star in track and field.

I think the Darko lesson re Mize here is don't fall for group think.

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16 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

I think the Darko lesson re Mize here is don't fall for group think.

I suppose so and I don't follow this even remotely closely but it seems like Mize is the consensus number 1 and we shouldn't over-think it.  As others have mentioned, there might be some medical information that is not publicly available, and there might be also a concern that his ceiling is not a whole lot higher than his current development.  He is not without risk.  And I'd really like to follow a bat through the farm system for a change, not an arm.

But at least he is not Cade Gaspar, who was charitably described in scouting reports as "not overpowering".  And he isn't Kenny Baugh whose arm had been re-attached with chewing gum and Bandaids. 

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36 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

That inability to see obvious places where he gets better seems to be having an effect on some of the pundits - the question is whether it has the same effect on evaluators. Kinda weird that having a fixable hole in your game might make you more desirable to some people.

It's the whole concept of if you are coach which would you rather have:

A runner who runs in near perfect form and finishes 100 yards in 10 seconds

Or the one with imperfect form that runs 100 yards in 10.1 seconds. 

I get it. But, even near ready big leaguers have to learn big league hitters and what not. It took Strausburg a couple of seasons, for example. 

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11 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

It's the whole concept of if you are coach which would you rather have:

A runner who runs in near perfect form and finishes 100 yards in 10 seconds

Or the one with imperfect form that runs 100 yards in 10.1 seconds. 

I get it. But, even near ready big leaguers have to learn big league hitters and what not. It took Strausburg a couple of seasons, for example. 

I think Porcello is an instructive case that if a guy can throw three or more pitches  doesn't walk people using them all, and has a reasonable fastball, he is eventually going to learn to be successful in the MLB even if it takes him a while. All kinds of people wrote off Porcello as having no better than bottom of rotation potential - no upside - no way to improve what he was doing; but you looked at that control and the 93-94 top FB and just figured at some point he would figure out how to put the pieces together to be effective.

Unless  Mize's elbow is ready to explode, I think you *have* to take him.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I think Porcello is an instructive case that if a guy can throw three or more pitches  doesn't walk people using them all, and has a reasonable fastball, he is eventually going to learn to be successful in the MLB even if it takes him a while. All kinds of people wrote off Porcello as having no better than bottom of rotation potential - no upside - no way to improve what he was doing; but you looked at that control and the 93-94 top FB and just figured at some point he would figure out how to put the pieces together to be effective.

Unless  Mize's elbow is ready to explode, I think you *have* to take him.

Oh I agree. I was just trying to provide a why, on the issue of someone with more flaws being more desirable. 

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