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RandyMarsh

2018 Draft Pick Watch

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10 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

You don't like Beer?

Great bat, but hardly a well rounded player, slower than vmart.

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3 hours ago, Shelton said:

I’m looking forward to the guys we select in the rule 5 draft this December. No reason to not carry a couple of those guys next year. 

Might as well.  Obviously there is a current need for pitching.  A lefty handed hitting CF that can hit and play CF well would be dandy.  If there are any of those available, grab 'em.

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40 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

There aren't really any that (at least now) should be going in the top 3 or four. Beer has no position, Madigril is 5-2, Connine's kid is nice but his peak is probably above-average player. 

I have no interest in position players that cannot play a position.  I'm not much interested in 1Bdudes either.  Prefer to go with up the middle talent where it makes sense and if they get forced to a corner by other superior up the middle talent, so be it.

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3 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

said no one, ever.

sad that this is something to look forward to.  I wonder if Travis Chapman will be in the pool?

I actually used to like the Rule 5 draft.  It used to be the most exciting thing that happened all winter.  Remember when they drafted that catcher Chris Shelton from the Pirates?  

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12 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Might as well.  Obviously there is a current need for pitching.  A lefty handed hitting CF that can hit and play CF well would be dandy.  If there are any of those available, grab 'em.

Not really. Cruzer highlight the two high school bats. One is a short stop (think hitting wise Yelich) and the other is a RF who can hit from Wisconsin. 

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3 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Not really. Cruzer highlight the two high school bats. One is a short stop (think hitting wise Yelich) and the other is a RF who can hit from Wisconsin. 

I was responding to Shelton's rule 5 commentary:

3 hours ago, Shelton said:

I’m looking forward to the guys we select in the rule 5 draft this December. No reason to not carry a couple of those guys next year. 

 

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Just now, Casimir said:

I was responding to Shelton's rule 5 commentary:

 

well I'm tired and only glanced and saw your comment that responded to me and assume everything was about the amateur draft. So yeah...

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Just now, Keepleyland2 said:

well I'm tired and only glanced and saw your comment that responded to me and assume everything was about the amateur draft. So yeah...

This has been a draining season.  Try more better next time, eh?

As far as the amateur draft is concerned, just draft future hall of famers, and I'll be cool with it.

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53 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Not really. Cruzer highlight the two high school bats. One is a short stop (think hitting wise Yelich) and the other is a RF who can hit from Wisconsin. 

The SS (Turang) is a plus runner.  He's pretty advanced.  His father is Brian Turang, who played in the '90's for Seattle.  I saw that his goal is to be the #1 pick in the draft, and to play in the mlb before he's 20.

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I'm just.... I see lots of online discussions about MLB prospects in the draft and I keep thinking it's not much different than Dungeons and Dragons... it's a fantasy.  90% of the people discussed won't reach the major leagues so it's moot.

 

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5 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I'm just.... I see lots of online discussions about MLB prospects in the draft and I keep thinking it's not much different than Dungeons and Dragons... it's a fantasy.  90% of the people discussed won't reach the major leagues so it's moot.

 

WAS IT FANTASY WHEN THE PADRES DRAFTED JUSTIN VERLANDER?!!! **** NO!

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12 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I'm just.... I see lots of online discussions about MLB prospects in the draft and I keep thinking it's not much different than Dungeons and Dragons... it's a fantasy.  90% of the people discussed won't reach the major leagues so it's moot.

 

You're stomping down the only thing we have left.  Hopes and dreams.  That's it.

Oh, wait, we still have Zimmermann to cheer on, too.

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45 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I'm just.... I see lots of online discussions about MLB prospects in the draft and I keep thinking it's not much different than Dungeons and Dragons... it's a fantasy.  90% of the people discussed won't reach the major leagues so it's moot.

 

That's the narrative but its actually not the case.  Sure 90% or more of the prospects drafted don't make it but I would bet the majority of the upper tier prospects that people are discussing do, in fact a relatively high number of them become all stars.  

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3 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

That's the narrative but its actually not the case.  Sure 90% or more of the prospects drafted don't make it but I would bet the majority of the upper tier prospects that people are discussing do, in fact a relatively high number of them become all stars.  

If a high percentage of top draft picks actually became stars there would be a lot more parity in baseball. And the Yankees likely wouldn't be on a string of 25 consecutive winning seasons, which is incredible. The odds that a top 5 pick will became a star are higher than a 5th round pick. But the truth is both are pretty low. The odds are pretty good, I believe, that a first round pick will make the majors, but the range of outcomes after that are wide. 

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55 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

If a high percentage of top draft picks actually became stars there would be a lot more parity in baseball. And the Yankees likely wouldn't be on a string of 25 consecutive winning seasons, which is incredible. The odds that a top 5 pick will became a star are higher than a 5th round pick. But the truth is both are pretty low. The odds are pretty good, I believe, that a first round pick will make the majors, but the range of outcomes after that are wide. 

I'm looking back at the past 10 drafts from 2013 on(since they haven't completely developed yet in the drafts after that) and every single one had atleast one guy out of the top 5 picks turn out to be either a perennial all star or superstar and quite a few with more than one.  So I'd say a 25% or more chance of being a superstar or perennial all star a relatively high number. 

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'm looking back at the past 10 drafts from 2013 on(since they haven't completely developed yet in the drafts after that) and every single one had atleast one guy out of the top 5 picks turn out to be either a perennial all star or superstar and quite a few with more than one.  So I'd say a 25% or more chance of being a superstar or perennial all star a relatively high number. 

The problem is the other 75%. The Tigers had top 5 picks in 1990, 1996, 2002, 2003, and 2004 (I might be missing a year). Only Verlander became a superstar, which at 20% is pretty close to your 25%. Whatever the odds they ain't 80% or something like that. Hopefully these next few drafts with high picks will yield a superstar that would help the rebuild immensely. I just wouldn't count on it. 

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8 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

The problem is the other 75%. The Tigers had top 5 picks in 1990, 1996, 2002, 2003, and 2004 (I might be missing a year). Only Verlander became a superstar, which at 20% is pretty close to your 25%. Whatever the odds they ain't 80% or something like that. Hopefully these next few drafts with high picks will yield a superstar that would help the rebuild immensely. I just wouldn't count on it. 

I really wish people would stop referencing drafts and success rates from anything before, about, 2010. Drafting and scouting has changed so much.

No more worry about signability, gone are the days of being regional based, gone are the days of guys in a straw hat at a high school game.

Comparing whatever happened in the 1997 draft to what could happen in 2018 is not an apt comparison.

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8 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

There aren't really any that (at least now) should be going in the top 3 or four. Beer has no position, Madigril is 5-2, Connine's kid is nice but his peak is probably above-average player. 

You never know when a guy like Swaggerty catches fire and moves up to the top of the draft.  Heck Trout went 25 overall. His type would be ideal for #1 overall. 

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3 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I really wish people would stop referencing drafts and success rates from anything before, about, 2010. Drafting and scouting has changed so much.

No more worry about signability, gone are the days of being regional based, gone are the days of guys in a straw hat at a high school game.

Comparing whatever happened in the 1997 draft to what could happen in 2018 is not an apt comparison.

Hopefully, the Tigers organization has caught up too.  

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