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RandyMarsh

2018 Draft Pick Watch

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

doesn't matter.  draft order is irrelevant.  or, so I've been told.

It is not as relevant as some make it out to be.  5 is better than 15, but I am not going get excited because they move from 5 to 3.  And even the difference between 5 and 15 is not that big in baseball.  The average WAR is better at 5, but the variance is also high.

 

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

It is not as relevant as some make it out to be.  5 is better than 15, but I am not going get excited because they move from 5 to 3.  And even the difference between 5 and 15 is not that big in baseball.  The average WAR is better at 5, but the variance is also high.

 

This is how I feel about it.  I mean, I'll play along and hope for as high of a draft pick as possible now that the Tigers in full rebuild mode.  But I'm not going to fret over whether or not they can get to 3rd or if they somehow fall back to 5th.

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I will fret. The third pick would be great. You never know if the teams ahead of you will try to get cute and take a guy so they can save a bit of money for later rounds. 

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

It is not as relevant as some make it out to be.  5 is better than 15, but I am not going get excited because they move from 5 to 3.  And even the difference between 5 and 15 is not that big in baseball.  The average WAR is better at 5, but the variance is also high.

 

A lot of top 5 picks playing some key roles though.

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12 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

A lot of top 5 picks playing some key roles though.

With the current in house pitching options, assuming they don't go out and break the bank for seven or eight different arms, the Tigers should have an ample supply of top 5 picks at their over the next few years.

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26 minutes ago, Casimir said:

With the current in house pitching options, assuming they don't go out and break the bank for seven or eight different arms, the Tigers should have an ample supply of top 5 picks at their over the next few years.

Give the youngsters time to grow.

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5 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

Give the youngsters time to grow.

The in-house pitching prospects?  Oh, yes, let them develop.  No need to rush anyone along.  

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3 hours ago, tiger337 said:

It is not as relevant as some make it out to be.  5 is better than 15, but I am not going get excited because they move from 5 to 3.  And even the difference between 5 and 15 is not that big in baseball.  The average WAR is better at 5, but the variance is also high.

The variance is much higher than the difference in the means.

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No matter what anyone says, the difference from 3 to 5 makes a difference. That could be the difference between drafting another Verlander and a prospect that never pans out. Of course, it comes down to good scouting and a great degree of luck. In any case, it's arbitrary, but 2 spots makes a difference if you have good eyes on the field and it goes your way. 

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3 minutes ago, Lifeguard said:

No matter what anyone says, the difference from 3 to 5 makes a difference. That could be the difference between drafting another Verlander and a prospect that never pans out. Of course, it comes down to good scouting and a great degree of luck. In any case, it's arbitrary, but 2 spots makes a difference if you have good eyes on the field and it goes your way. 

Or maybe the guy drafted at #5 turns out better than the guy at #3.  It makes a difference, but it's a small one with lots of variation.  

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