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RandyMarsh

2018 Draft Pick Watch

336 posts in this topic

20 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I wish for them to tank in 2018 and then start signing free agents again in 2019 to try to win, as long as there is reasonable chance to be good that year by doing that. If they must wait until 2020, so be it. 

But by the the end of 2018, we will have a good idea where we stand with a lot of young players:

jeimer

nick

lugo

machado

boyd

norris

burrows

 

Those are all still pretty big question marks. And then you've got guys like McCann, Mahtook, and Cabrera whose future production is still up in the air. 

I would want free agents that are signed to a good value.  No more of these top of the market deals, please?  

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2 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

I would want free agents that are signed to a good value.  No more of these top of the market deals, please?  

Depends on the situation. I don't want them to just stick with internal options if there is a chance to compete by signing an upton type deal or two. 

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8 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Depends on the situation. I don't want them to just stick with internal options if there is a chance to compete by signing an upton type deal or two. 

I would wait until the team is more ready to contend.  Sign one or two to put the team over the top, but don't depend on them just to contend. 

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3 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

I would wait until the team is more ready to contend.  Sign one or two to put the team over the top, but don't depend on them just to contend. 

That's fine too. I would just rather get on with it. If you wait and suddenly you have guys take a step forward, then you are sitting there at the deadline wanting to add and costing yourself prospects. 

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

thats even worse than your last post.

speaking the language on the one i was conversing with.

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10 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

buh gawd we'll never reach .500. avila will be fired in 5 years but the owner is an idiot because he kept avila so he'll just hire another idiot. and then he'll sell the team to another idiot. look at the track record man, that's all that matters, nothing ever changes.

detroit has never done anything good ever. jv was right to force his way out of town! no player has ever developed for the tigers. jv would have 5 cy youngs if the met drafted him. john smoltz!!!! everyone else's 19 y/o are awesome but not the tigers' look at john smoltz!!! we can't draft players unless we trade them which just means other teams simply developed them. we can't develop players the guys the other teams traded aren't any good.

next thing we're going to do is draft MULTIPLE 18 year olds wow such idiots millennials suck.

This is supposed to be done with all caps and no punctuation.  

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5 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

speaking the language on the one i was conversing with.

Buddha uses great language.  Some of his ideas suck, but always great language.  

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14 hours ago, Buddha said:

i dont care about a 2004 mindset and im not in a 2004 mindset, i just dont think they are going to be good for a long time and i dont think they have elite talent in the system.

the organization has done so little to identify and develop their own talent for so many years that i will need to be convinced that they can actually do so now.

dd was so good in turning chicken**** into chicken salad that it made up for the glaring lack of talent development the organization had for most of his tenure.

i think theyve filled the system with a bunch of lottery tickets.  hopefully some of them pan out.  hopefully they can use their very high draft picks for the next 3 or 4 seasons to acquire some elite players.  given their recent track record,  i have my reservations.

If you think the prospects they have are all lottery tickets (which even elite prospects kind of are), then yeah I would agree that they won't be a good team for a long time. I just disagree that their system is full of lottery tickets. I think they have a good number of guys that project to be good major league players as a baseline. Some probably won't pan out. Some will probably turn out to be better than we think. 

I agree that they are short on elite prospects, and they are also short on elite major league players. So it's definitely a question as to how quickly the team will be competitive again. 

But I do think this system is in better shape than it has been for as long as I can remember. That gives me some hope. 

Their history of drafting and developing players isn't all that relevant to me, because I suspect that the guys behind the failures in the past aren't still around. I also think there is a lot of luck involved regarding which guys ultimately pan out. 

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9 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Buddha uses great language.  Some of his ideas suck, but always great language.  

buddah posts are like a twist on the appeal to authority fallacy: X sucks therefore everything X does sucks. and you suck for thinking otherwise.

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3 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

buddah posts are like a twist on the appeal to authority fallacy: X sucks therefore everything X does sucks. and you suck for thinking otherwise.

1) can you spell my fake name right?  just once?  i dont run around here calling you who is the drizzel.

2) im taking a wait and see approach on our prospects as befits my generally pessimistic nature.  

3) i hope youre right.

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

There is some extra salt with the drizzle today.

i had a proverbial dump truck of it dumped on me.

1 minute ago, Buddha said:

1) can you spell my fake name right?  just once?  i dont run around here calling you who is the drizzel.

2) im taking a wait and see approach on our prospects as befits my generally pessimistic nature.  

3) i hope youre right.

fair enough buddha

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9 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

i had a proverbial dump truck of it dumped on me.

I've never heard of any proverb that involved dump trucks.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I've never heard of any proverb that involved dump trucks.

it was a pretty ****ty proverb.

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Tigers lose, Athletics win, Metropolitans win.  Tigers remain at the 5th pick overall.

Capture.PNG

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I've never heard of any proverb that involved dump trucks.

A reading from the letter of St. Paul to the Waste Workers.

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3 hours ago, Shelton said:

I wish for them to tank in 2018 and then start signing free agents again in 2019 to try to win, as long as there is reasonable chance to be good that year by doing that. If they must wait until 2020, so be it. 

But by the the end of 2018, we will have a good idea where we stand with a lot of young players:

jeimer

nick

lugo

machado

boyd

norris

burrows

 

Those are all still pretty big question marks. And then you've got guys like McCann, Mahtook, and Cabrera whose future production is still up in the air. 

respectfully, I don't think we'll know enough about the majority of those guys--NIck, Boyd and Norris, yes, they will have amassed enough major league time to assess their worth.  Jeimer will only have a full season in the majors under his belt--a bit premature to gauge how good he'll be.  Unless Kinsler or Iglesias are traded, Machado won't get enough playing time.  And Lugo and Burrows will still be in the minors.  Until a player gets some meaningful time in the majors, you just never know how good they are going to be.  I suspect both will break in 2019, and even then, they will only have one year.

This is going to take a while.

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1 hour ago, Casimir said:

Tigers lose, Athletics win, Metropolitans win.  Tigers remain at the 5th pick overall.

Capture.PNG

Do we have any head to head games against the white sox left? If so, there is still a chance for third pick. 

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I see we have four left against the white sox and three against Oakland. The dream is alive. 

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8 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

respectfully, I don't think we'll know enough about the majority of those guys--NIck, Boyd and Norris, yes, they will have amassed enough major league time to assess their worth.  Jeimer will only have a full season in the majors under his belt--a bit premature to gauge how good he'll be.  Unless Kinsler or Iglesias are traded, Machado won't get enough playing time.  And Lugo and Burrows will still be in the minors.  Until a player gets some meaningful time in the majors, you just never know how good they are going to be.  I suspect both will break in 2019, and even then, they will only have one year.

This is going to take a while.

I don't agree that you need more than one season in the majors to get a grasp on what you can expect from a player. Minor league stats aren't nothing. 

If Jeimer shows up and gives us a high 700s ops, you can probably expect him to be good in 2019. If burrows pitches well in AAA, that's something you can hope will translate. Same with Lugo in AAA. 

I think machado will have a starting role next year, likely due to Kinsler being traded. One way or another, he's going to play. 

At any rate, it will require some amount of projection heading into 2019. But there is a scenario where team can feel good about 2019 based on how those guys do in 2018 at MLB and AAA. 

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43 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I don't agree that you need more than one season in the majors to get a grasp on what you can expect from a player. Minor league stats aren't nothing. 

If Jeimer shows up and gives us a high 700s ops, you can probably expect him to be good in 2019. If burrows pitches well in AAA, that's something you can hope will translate. Same with Lugo in AAA. 

I think machado will have a starting role next year, likely due to Kinsler being traded. One way or another, he's going to play. 

At any rate, it will require some amount of projection heading into 2019. But there is a scenario where team can feel good about 2019 based on how those guys do in 2018 at MLB and AAA. 

you can get a good idea of talent level. consistency is of course another issue.

i'm amazed that norris had a BB/9 under 3 last season.

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54 minutes ago, Shelton said:

If Jeimer shows up and gives us a high 700s ops, you can probably expect him to be good in 2019. If burrows pitches well in AAA, that's something you can hope will translate. Same with Lugo in AAA. 

 

what if Jeimer has an OPS closer to 700?  Is he a bust after one season?

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

In the above hypothetical, am I buying or selling?

nobody is buying what youre selling.

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