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RandyMarsh

2018 Draft Pick Watch

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8 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

I'm not saying they'll win the division in 2020, but that's when their window could start.

2021 is probably more realistic, as our top 2 picks in the '18 draft would hopefully be closer to ready by then, Manning is more likely to be ready by then, and any extra development time (in the minors or in Detroit) for the other SP prospects could push it back to then.

But I would view a window starting as a team that's young and projected around 80 wins. I'm not saying that'll happen with only the players currently in the system either.  I also think when we approach that window in house, there will be a foray into free agency as well, as there's only $60M on the books for 2020 and $30M for 2021.

Between Fulmer/Faedo/Manning/Burrows/Perez/Funk/Soto/???/Norris/Boyd you could realistically have 3 young rotation pieces, and when you have that I think you have something. I think we should have a good idea on what Faedo/Burrows/Perez will look like as MLB players sometime in 2019. And hopefully between a failed starter or two and the dozen power bullpen types we have in the minors, we have the core of a decent bullpen by then, as well as more pitching depth at AA/AAA.

I'm not saying we'll be the 2012-2015 Tigers or the current Houston Astros, even I'm not that optimistic. Just hoping for a watchable team.

OK, that makes it more clear.  Getting back to .500 should not take forever.  

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1 minute ago, Buddha said:

i dont think we have any elite hitting prospects in the whole system.  the last round of trades didnt change that.  nor do i think we have any elite pitching prospects, but rather have a bunch of arms that project as potential #3 starters.  maybe #2 if things really go well.

the hope is that the next two drafts can produce superstar hitting talent.  and even that will be 2 or 3 years away from competing at a major league level if were lucky.

if were lucky we can draft a kris bryant or a justin verlander.  but that doesnt happen every day.

ask the phillies.

that's certainly possible.

i don't think we need an elite talent to be competitive in 2020. as i said to lee, i'm not talking a world series team by 2020/21, but if we can get 3 #2/#3s from what we currently have in the org, as well as filling in depth in the bullpen and in the field, that'll be a decent enough core to start competing with. I don't think something like that is too far from the 50th percentile of what to hope for. And maybe we get lucky and Manning and Faedo start out like gangbusters next summer and we're looking at more.

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Candelario is a legit hitting prospect. Paredes is legit but young. Lugo is good. Daz is good. Rogers is good. 

You don't need elite prospects to rebuild. 

Perez is a borderline elite pitching prospect. Faedo and burrows and manning are all very good pitching prospects. 

They have a system in place now where there are enough guys with good upside that if things go right can form a core of low cost production that you can add to make a competitive team. 

If all of those guys pan out, the tigers will be in great shape in 2020. That probably won't happen, but there is no rule that says everyone has to come from the system. If they all bust, we will be stuck looking ahead another three years. 

I definitely understand the pessimism. It's hard to go back to a 2004 mindset after the last decade of teams with established major league players. It's impossible to predict what will happen, but at least there are some signs of hope now. 

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2 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i dont think we have any elite hitting prospects in the whole system.  the last round of trades didnt change that.  nor do i think we have any elite pitching prospects, but rather have a bunch of arms that project as potential #3 starters.  maybe #2 if things really go well.

the hope is that the next two drafts can produce superstar hitting talent.  and even that will be 2 or 3 years away from competing at a major league level if were lucky.

if were lucky we can draft a kris bryant or a justin verlander.  but that doesnt happen every day.

ask the phillies.

Fulmer is a good enough #1 going into a rebuild, assuming his visit to Dr. Andrews doesn't turn into a major surgery.  If Avila can't fill out the rotation behind him with what's in the system to form a respectable staff, then yeah, the team will be awful for a long time.   The good news is there are a lot of arms with that 2-5 rotation upside.  Bullpen arms, too.

The lack of elite bats is something they can address over the next few years.  Drafting a generational arm or slugger would be nice for sure, and at some point you have to get lucky.  Avila has proven to be good at acquiring fringe players with upside to good role player or beyond.  JD, Hicks, Stumpf, Pressley and Mahtook have all been genuine finds of his.  If he keeps on grinding like that over the next several years I have no worries about collecting talent.  Getting players who put up numbers for cheap is the name of the game now.

Running into a JD (20th rd) or Reddick-type (17th rd) along the way isn't exactly unthinkable.  As bad as they will be next year, we're looking at a top five pick each of the next two years--and this year's draft looks pretty stocked full of potential. 

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1 minute ago, mickeyb105 said:

Fulmer is a good enough #1 going into a rebuild, assuming his visit to Dr. Andrews doesn't turn into a major surgery.  If Avila can't fill out the rotation behind him with what's in the system to form a respectable staff, then yeah, the team will be awful for a long time.   The good news is there are a lot of arms with that 2-5 rotation upside.  Bullpen arms, too.

The lack of elite bats is something they can address over the next few years.  Drafting a generational arm or slugger would be nice for sure, and at some point you have to get lucky.  Avila has proven to be good at acquiring fringe players with upside to good role player or beyond.  JD, Hicks, Stumpf, Pressley and Mahtook have all been genuine finds of his.  If he keeps on grinding like that over the next several years I have no worries about collecting talent.  Getting players who put up numbers for cheap is the name of the game now.

Running into a JD (20th rd) or Reddick-type (17th rd) along the way isn't exactly unthinkable.  As bad as they will be next year, we're looking at a top five pick each of the next two years--and this year's draft looks pretty stocked full of potential. 

what do you have more of in your fridge, honolulu blue and silver kool aid or tiger orange kool aid?

i dont think fulmer misses enough bats to be a true #1 starter.  personally,  fulmer's arm woes concern me.  if they could get a nice package of young players for him, i'd deal him this offseason.  give the braves a call.  or the twins.

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i'm irrationally high on matt manning. i think he's backed off his fastball and is also focusing on his secondary pitches--working on repeatability and developing his weaker pitches. so the numbers don't show it, but i think he is poised for a step up in stuff/results in a year or two. he could be that top 10-25 prospect we don't yet have.

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1 minute ago, Buddha said:

what do you have more of in your fridge, honolulu blue and silver kool aid or tiger orange kool aid?

i dont think fulmer misses enough bats to be a true #1 starter.  personally,  fulmer's arm woes concern me.  if they could get a nice package of young players for him, i'd deal him this offseason.  give the braves a call.  or the twins.

Fulmer is definitely not an "ace" but he's good enough to be considered a 1/2. 

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2 minutes ago, Buddha said:

what do you have more of in your fridge, honolulu blue and silver kool aid or tiger orange kool aid?

i dont think fulmer misses enough bats to be a true #1 starter.  personally,  fulmer's arm woes concern me.  if they could get a nice package of young players for him, i'd deal him this offseason.  give the braves a call.  or the twins.

i wouldn't worry about fulmer's elbow. it seems all but certain this is just a nerve thing versus a structural thing. degrom had the same thing and had surgery around this time last year, and he's still golden.

the lack of strikeouts is becoming a bit more worrying for sure, as far as developing into an ace. it could change, but if it doesn't he's still a damn good pitcher who is young and who is a huge asset.

i don't think he'll change his approach unless he starts allowing hard contact.

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28 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Candelario is a legit hitting prospect. Paredes is legit but young. Lugo is good. Daz is good. Rogers is good.

they all have their definite pluses for sure, and hopefully it will outweigh their minuses. candelario strikes out too much but draws walks and has solid power at this stage. paredes doesn't have elite power, but it's solid enough for his age and the league, and has an outstanding BB/K ratio. lugo doesn't seem to consistently drive the ball, but he avoids strikeouts and i think has more power in him if he/they can unlock it. daz is smooth af in the of and while he struggled bigly at the plate, he seems to have made the adjustments to where he's lit up a pitching league the past couple months. rogers strikes out a lot, is a bit old for the leauge, and seems to be going for the power / bb approach (which i don't always like in the minors), but with his potentially elite catching skills it could definitely work.

hopefully this works out like my golf swing, where if i only have 1 or 2 things to work on i can usually figure it out.

gerber is kind of the antithesis of these guys in that he doesn't have one particular skill thing that stands out, but he just keeps hitting and playing solid defense. i look forward to being irrationally excited about him during his first hot streak in detroit. tho i would like to see the K% come down some more, or at least stabilize where it was at erie.

edit: beyond those guys, i think everyone else needs significant work to make it. stewart has good power and can take walks, but i think micro would tell you he has places he can be attacked, and is real poor defensively. hill has elite defensive skills, but no power and strikes out too much. jacoby has more than one issue at the plate, obviously. everybody else has too many issues at this point or is just too far away to say anything meaningful.

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3 hours ago, mickeyb105 said:

Neither, sorry for not being clear. 

Jones plays a good enough CF to shift Mahtook to a corner. Whether or not he can hit enough to play CF every day  remains to be seen. 

Ideally, it would be nice have Jones as a utility player--again, if he hits.  Did he just not grade out well enough at 2B or 3B to play there at MLB level? 

 

Got it. I understand your stance. 

 

I continue to maintain Jones' big league value is his versatility, whether he hits or not. He's very good in the outfield, adequate at third or second, and below average at shortstop. He's not going to hit, but his defensive versatility can carry him in a bench role. 

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3 hours ago, Shelton said:

Candelario is a legit hitting prospect. Paredes is legit but young. Lugo is good. Daz is good. Rogers is good. 

You don't need elite prospects to rebuild. 

Perez is a borderline elite pitching prospect. Faedo and burrows and manning are all very good pitching prospects. 

They have a system in place now where there are enough guys with good upside that if things go right can form a core of low cost production that you can add to make a competitive team. 

If all of those guys pan out, the tigers will be in great shape in 2020. That probably won't happen, but there is no rule that says everyone has to come from the system. If they all bust, we will be stuck looking ahead another three years. 

I definitely understand the pessimism. It's hard to go back to a 2004 mindset after the last decade of teams with established major league players. It's impossible to predict what will happen, but at least there are some signs of hope now. 

i dont care about a 2004 mindset and im not in a 2004 mindset, i just dont think they are going to be good for a long time and i dont think they have elite talent in the system.

the organization has done so little to identify and develop their own talent for so many years that i will need to be convinced that they can actually do so now.

dd was so good in turning chicken**** into chicken salad that it made up for the glaring lack of talent development the organization had for most of his tenure.

i think theyve filled the system with a bunch of lottery tickets.  hopefully some of them pan out.  hopefully they can use their very high draft picks for the next 3 or 4 seasons to acquire some elite players.  given their recent track record,  i have my reservations.

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1 minute ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

DD was **** at drafting and developing. Therefore AA will be ****.

DD was great at everything else. Therefore AA will be ****.

DD made a few crappy trades near the end trying to fulfill Mike's wishes. And Al made more than a few terrible FA signings trying to do the same. I think draft, sign, and develop should be Al's wheelhouse. The prospects they identified in trades gives me a little optimism.

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33 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

DD was **** at drafting and developing. Therefore AA will be ****.

DD was great at everything else. Therefore AA will be ****.

i like the tigers, therefore all their prospects are going to be the awesomest prospects ever!

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13 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i like the tigers, therefore all their prospects are going to be the awesomest prospects ever!

nah, they're tigers, so they're gonna suck.

tigers don't know how to develop anyone, tho i hear they're teaching manning a knuckleball. stewart is learning how to be a slap-hitter. they're gonna trade burrows for a backup catcher. faedo is gonna sit next year just to be extra safe.

10 years in the wilderness. aa is the reincarnation of randy smith. look at the track record. they drafted ryan perry once. 'nuff said.

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I can understand being skeptical considering the Tigers track record but I also don't think its fair to hold that against Avila.  Just cause Avila was under DD doesn't mean he had the same vision, wanted the same players, or had anything to do with when and where they were assigned/promoted.   Also how many of the instructors and managers in the minors right now were around for most of previous administration? 

 

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5 hours ago, Buddha said:

what do you have more of in your fridge, honolulu blue and silver kool aid or tiger orange kool aid?

i dont think fulmer misses enough bats to be a true #1 starter.  personally,  fulmer's arm woes concern me.  if they could get a nice package of young players for him, i'd deal him this offseason.  give the braves a call.  or the twins.

I don't waste much time with the Lions, or the NFL, for that matter. 

Fulmer is far from perfect, but he's the best asset the Tigers have. Of course he's not an Ace on a playoff team--yet. Can he be?  Did you think Porcello could win a Cy? Ideally he isn't an Ace, but ideal left the station for Houston last week. 

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2 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

nah, they're tigers, so they're gonna suck.

tigers don't know how to develop anyone, tho i hear they're teaching manning a knuckleball. stewart is learning how to be a slap-hitter. they're gonna trade burrows for a backup catcher. faedo is gonna sit next year just to be extra safe.

10 years in the wilderness. aa is the reincarnation of randy smith. look at the track record. they drafted ryan perry once. 'nuff said.

Nah dude, its the TIGERS, everything about them is awesome.  Just ask you.

They've got MULTIPLE 19 year old pitchers who were blowing the sally league away.  In two years, those guys will be all stars!

I mean, we won't contend next year, but in 2019 we will fer sure.

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1 hour ago, mickeyb105 said:

I don't waste much time with the Lions, or the NFL, for that matter. 

Fulmer is far from perfect, but he's the best asset the Tigers have. Of course he's not an Ace on a playoff team--yet. Can he be?  Did you think Porcello could win a Cy? Ideally he isn't an Ace, but ideal left the station for Houston last week. 

Not wasting much time on the Lions is a sign of intelligence.

I didn't think Porcello would ever win a Cy Young.  I see that he's turned right back into Rick Porcello this year.  The fact that he won the Cy Young over Verlander is a disgrace of such epic proportion that it could only be foisted upon us by a group of men as stupid as the baseball writers association of america.  WIIINNNZZZZZ!!!!!!

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28 minutes ago, Buddha said:

Nah dude, its the TIGERS, everything about them is awesome.  Just ask you.

They've got MULTIPLE 19 year old pitchers who were blowing the sally league away.  In two years, those guys will be all stars!

I mean, we won't contend next year, but in 2019 we will fer sure.

buh gawd we'll never reach .500. avila will be fired in 5 years but the owner is an idiot because he kept avila so he'll just hire another idiot. and then he'll sell the team to another idiot. look at the track record man, that's all that matters, nothing ever changes.

detroit has never done anything good ever. jv was right to force his way out of town! no player has ever developed for the tigers. jv would have 5 cy youngs if the met drafted him. john smoltz!!!! everyone else's 19 y/o are awesome but not the tigers' look at john smoltz!!! we can't draft players unless we trade them which just means other teams simply developed them. we can't develop players the guys the other teams traded aren't any good.

next thing we're going to do is draft MULTIPLE 18 year olds wow such idiots millennials suck.

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9 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

buh gawd we'll never reach .500. avila will be fired in 5 years but the owner is an idiot because he kept avila so he'll just hire another idiot. and then he'll sell the team to another idiot. look at the track record man, that's all that matters, nothing ever changes.

detroit has never done anything good ever. jv was right to force his way out of town! no player has ever developed for the tigers. jv would have 5 cy youngs if the met drafted him. john smoltz!!!! everyone else's 19 y/o are awesome but not the tigers' look at john smoltz!!! we can't draft players unless we trade them which just means other teams simply developed them. we can't develop players the guys the other teams traded aren't any good.

next thing we're going to do is draft MULTIPLE 18 year olds wow such idiots millennials suck.

thats even worse than your last post.

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With all of the predictions about how soon the Tigers will return to relevance, I don't think anyone is considering competitive forces. In our division alone, Minnesota has a leg up on us from a rebuild standpoint--solid core and more prospects on the way.  The White Sox have better prospects than we do.  The Royals will be gutted after this season, once all of their free agents bail, and will start their rebuild simultaneously.  Given the status of the division, the Indians will be poised to be good for the next few years, given all of the games they'll be able to play against the White Sox, Royals and us.

The point I'm trying to make is that we're in the same mix with a lot of teams, all doing their best to get good around the same time we're targeting.  There are no guarantees we will be able to execute this rebuild successfully.   What differentiated ourselves the last 10 years was a top 5 GM along and an owner who was willing to spend without any regard for profitability/good business sense.

This could be 3-5 years or we could become the Lions.

I was not an advocate of a full rebuild, but embracing it since we're in it.  But, be careful what you wish for.

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I wish for them to tank in 2018 and then start signing free agents again in 2019 to try to win, as long as there is reasonable chance to be good that year by doing that. If they must wait until 2020, so be it. 

But by the the end of 2018, we will have a good idea where we stand with a lot of young players:

jeimer

nick

lugo

machado

boyd

norris

burrows

 

Those are all still pretty big question marks. And then you've got guys like McCann, Mahtook, and Cabrera whose future production is still up in the air. 

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10 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I wish for them to tank in 2018 and then start signing free agents again in 2019 to try to win, as long as there is reasonable chance to be good that year by doing that. If they must wait until 2020, so be it. 

But by the the end of 2018, we will have a good idea where we stand with a lot of young players:

jeimer

nick

lugo

machado

boyd

norris

burrows

 

Those are all still pretty big question marks. And then you've got guys like McCann, Mahtook, and Cabrera whose future production is still up in the air. 

I'd add Funkhouser, Gerber, Stewart... Maybe even Perez and Faedo.

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10 hours ago, Buddha said:

Nah dude, its the TIGERS, everything about them is awesome.  Just ask you.

They've got MULTIPLE 19 year old pitchers who were blowing the sally league away.  In two years, those guys will be all stars!

I mean, we won't contend next year, but in 2019 we will fer sure.

The Tigers don't play in the Sally League.  Then again, you don't follow well enough to know what the Sally League is.

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