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RandyMarsh

2018 Draft Pick Watch

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2 minutes ago, holygoat said:

I'm no expert on pitching technique, but his delivery kind of scares me wrt potential injury. Am I wrong to think that?

Thats what stood out to me, hes got a low arm slot. Might just be because it's so rare to have that low of a release for a SP though.

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I'm way too much into all things Tigers, and thrilled we got the #1, but I can't get excited yet about any of these guys at this stage. The draft is too far away.

I'll probably get excited if one of them turns dominant or something between now and then. But there's no obvious future Tiger right now.

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17 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

no, you're wrong to have Bill Bonds as your avatar.

If rocking a Bill Bonds avi is wrong, I don't wanna be right...

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Just now, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

featured_B4yCKFZIUAA4du-_15161.jpg

awesome.  was that before or after Bill challenged him to a fight during his news broadcast?

I know Ron Burgundy was based off of Mort Crim, but Bill Bonds epitomizes the celebrity of a 70's local newscaster.

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young pitchers who have had injury issues in the past are too scary to be the #1 pick.  hopefully another hitter emerges.

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BA has a podcast out today about the draft that's worth listening, as they spend most of the time going through options for the Tigers at 1-1.

They again talked about Singer as most likely at this stage, with Brice Turang as perhaps the top high school option. An interesting point made is that these guys who have top draft prospects for a while now have been through a ton of scrutiny, much more than other players. That it almost seems like scouts/baseball writers spend too much time poking holes in them. They used AJ Puk and Faedo as recent examples of this... Two players that entered their draft years as the number 1 draft prospect only to fall on draft day, Faedo "inexplicably so". 

The whole pod is worth a listen...

It's number two on this list:

 

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/baseball-america/id201539011?mt=2#episodeGuid=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.blubrry.com%2Fbaseballamerica%2Fmedia.baseballamerica.com%2Fmp3%2Ffree%2F171003.mp3

 

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The other interesting thing they mentioned about Singer -- and some of this may have already been mentioned here -- is that he was the 56th overall pick out of HS in 15. The Jays and Singer had agreed to the number, but something about his physical scared the Jays off and they lowered their number, substantially, so Singer went to Florida. 

That's pretty much what happened to Brady Aiken the year before. He had Tommy John shortly after. Obviously, Singer has had two+ very nice years in college and the Cape since that draft, so perhaps that was an overreaction by the Jays, but it seems like something that could make the Tigers pass on him, even if Singer has a very nice junior season. 

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Eric Longenhagen of fangraphs had a chat the other day and somebody asked if there could be a Bryant/Correa type in this draft and he said yes. (Didn't say who though)

Of course he prefaced that by saying that those guys weren't looked at can't miss at the time of the draft so he wasn't necessarily saying there are guys that could turn out like that but guys that could have the perceived value that they did at the time of the draft.

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3 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

More position players, please.  

You are correct

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5 hours ago, TigerNation said:

Thats what stood out to me, hes got a low arm slot. Might just be because it's so rare to have that low of a release for a SP though.

Not as low as Chris Sale, for one. Much more compact, though.

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Really?

The Tigers have their explanations, separate from a nasty baseball fact: Your chance of winning $50 on a randomly grabbed lottery ticket from the corner grocer is better than a drafted player’s likelihood of cracking the big leagues.

We did a study on our drafts, and we actually have a great track record,” insisted Al Avila, the Tigers general manager whose amateur scouting director, Scott Pleis, decides what players are grabbed. “We haven’t had impact guys, no. But one of the things I emphasize is that usually the impact guys come at the top of the round. And for years, we haven‘t picked at the top of the round. It’s hard to get impact guys otherwise.”

Avila is on reasonably firm turf here.

From 2005 until this June, the Tigers through the draft’s first five rounds saw 47.3 percent of their picks hit the big leagues. The industry average was 37 percent.

The Tigers did this even though they were tied with the White Sox for 28th place among 30 teams for having the fewest picks available — the consequence of losing five first-rounders as compensation for signing marquee free agents.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2017/10/27/tigers-looking-big-hit-mlb-draft/107056242/

 

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14 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Really?

The Tigers have their explanations, separate from a nasty baseball fact: Your chance of winning $50 on a randomly grabbed lottery ticket from the corner grocer is better than a drafted player’s likelihood of cracking the big leagues.

We did a study on our drafts, and we actually have a great track record,” insisted Al Avila, the Tigers general manager whose amateur scouting director, Scott Pleis, decides what players are grabbed. “We haven’t had impact guys, no. But one of the things I emphasize is that usually the impact guys come at the top of the round. And for years, we haven‘t picked at the top of the round. It’s hard to get impact guys otherwise.”

Avila is on reasonably firm turf here.

From 2005 until this June, the Tigers through the draft’s first five rounds saw 47.3 percent of their picks hit the big leagues. The industry average was 37 percent.

The Tigers did this even though they were tied with the White Sox for 28th place among 30 teams for having the fewest picks available — the consequence of losing five first-rounders as compensation for signing marquee free agents.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2017/10/27/tigers-looking-big-hit-mlb-draft/107056242/

 

That lotto bit was classic Henning--smarmy anecdote that's not close to accurate.

I thought the overall article was insightful, however. And to Avila's point, the Astros are credited with having great drafts. But 80% of their hits were a result of having a top 5 pick and bonus pool. I wouldn't call the Tigers drafts 'great' but I think they were about what you would expect, drafting where they have been and losing far more picks than they've gained via FA. Not the best, but closer to average what is typically perceived.

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I'm sure that anecdote is accurate, or perhaps even understating it, if you think the hitting coaches childhood buddies cousin's son being drafted in the 39th round counts as a 'player who could hit the big leagues'

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Just making the bigs is a low bar. Would be more interested in players who actually stuck around for 3+ years.

I'm not too surprised they have an above average rate given the plethora of college RPs they took. 

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We definitely have been hurt by picking late and by losing draft picks via FA signings and we very well may have been good based on where we picked but I don't think using Major League percentage is the best metric.  I mean if all the guys you draft make the big leagues but they are just replacement level players are you really drafting that well?

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7 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I don't read much into that. 

I think part of that is explained by talent level and part of that is explained by climate/park factors, but I don't think it can be totally discounted. One thing I will say, that I have been saying, is that big minor league power doesn't necessary translate to big major league power - plenty of AAAA sluggers out there - but if we could get up toward the middle of the pack in terms of minor league home runs, it would bode very well. Those 15-20 home run guys that can take some pitches in the minors seem to be the players that blossom the best in the majors in terms of both power and average. We shall see. 

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20 hours ago, Walewander said:

I think part of that is explained by talent level and part of that is explained by climate/park factors, but I don't think it can be totally discounted. One thing I will say, that I have been saying, is that big minor league power doesn't necessary translate to big major league power - plenty of AAAA sluggers out there - but if we could get up toward the middle of the pack in terms of minor league home runs, it would bode very well. Those 15-20 home run guys that can take some pitches in the minors seem to be the players that blossom the best in the majors in terms of both power and average. We shall see. 

Atlanta is widely regarded to have one of the best systems and they are behind us. KC's is terrible and they ranked like 8th. 

Too much easily offset with AAAA sluggers out there to consider total minor league homers relevant. 

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