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RandyMarsh

2018 Draft Pick Watch

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On ‎8‎/‎31‎/‎2018 at 8:47 AM, Tenacious D said:

Paredes has to have played his way into a top-100 MLB prospect.  His numbers are incredibly impressive for playing at High A/AA at age 19.  I suspect he’ll start off next year in Erie and finish the season in Toledo, with Detroit in September and full-time in 2020, if he continues to progress like he has so far.

I think I'm more excited about Paredes' future than anyone in the system other than Mize.

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12 minutes ago, Buddha said:

I think I'm more excited about Paredes' future than anyone in the system other than Mize.

He certainly looks to me like their best position player prospect, from a statistical perspective anyway. Mize and Manning are exciting, but pitching prospects are so delicate and unpredictable.   

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15 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Your 2021 Tigers, not counting for trades/free agents:

 C Rogers, Greiner

1B Candelario 

2B Clemens, Goodrum

SS Castro, Alcantara 

3B Paredes

LF Stewart

CF Hill, Jones

RF Cameron

DH Cabrera

SP Mize, Fulmer, Perez, Faedo, Boyd

RP Hall, Funkhouser, Houston, Garcia, Baez , Burrows, Jiminez

Is there no chance for Lugo?

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2 hours ago, diaspora04 said:

Is there no chance for Lugo?

He took only 9 walks this season at Toledo in 123 games, with a .633 OPS.  I don’t think that will translate well to the majors.

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37 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

He took only 9 walks this season at Toledo in 123 games, with a .633 OPS.  I don’t think that will translate well to the majors.

I think he's going to be a good AAAA depth guy to have around as long as he's not actively blocking anyone. 

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23 minutes ago, Walewander said:

I think he's going to be a good AAAA depth guy to have around as long as he's not actively blocking anyone. 

 I think he'll get every opportunity next year to prove he can be more than that, but at the end of the day, that's probably what he is. 

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Meadows could be ready by 2021.  Deathrage will be up before then and Robson will too.  I don't see Hill or Jones being around by then. I'm not sure Hill is even in the organization by this time next year

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17 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

He took only 9 walks this season at Toledo in 123 games, with a .633 OPS.  I don’t think that will translate well to the majors.

you never know I guess, but he seems like a low ceiling guy who may be there now.

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1 hour ago, Lei Pong said:

Meadows could be ready by 2021.  Deathrage will be up before then and Robson will too.  I don't see Hill or Jones being around by then. I'm not sure Hill is even in the organization by this time next year

Yup. I'd guess  Hill has up until the draft to show enough to force a promotion to AA or he's toast. I'd keep Jones just for the 2 WAR defense. And with Jones even given that his BA is plateaued, if his HR total just holds or improves a little over the next couple of years he's a positive contributor.

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If they are going to suck in 2019 anyway, no harm in giving him the CF job to see if he can improve his contact skillz.

 

Long term, at worst, your 4th OF has to be able to play CF, so Jones slots in well for there and can be a defensive replacement for either corner spot late in games.

If I had a play-off caliber team, that is exactly the type of low cost 4th OF I'd want.

 

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Jones is capable of going 20-20 and play Gold Glove D.  With around 180 K’s to go with it.  He’s not blocking anyone next year, so why not give him the shot?  At worst, he can be a super utility guy, with Nico, providing the team with a lot of flexibility over the next 5-6 seasons.

 

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2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Jones is capable of going 20-20 and play Gold Glove D.  With around 180 K’s to go with it.  He’s not blocking anyone next year, so why not give him the shot?  At worst, he can be a super utility guy, with Nico, providing the team with a lot of flexibility over the next 5-6 seasons.

 

The best thing about having great OFs, especially a CF with outrageous range, is that it is so demoralizing for the opposition hitters. 😎

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On 9/2/2018 at 9:58 AM, Gehringer_2 said:

Yup. I'd guess  Hill has up until the draft to show enough to force a promotion to AA or he's toast. I'd keep Jones just for the 2 WAR defense. And with Jones even given that his BA is plateaued, if his HR total just holds or improves a little over the next couple of years he's a positive contributor.

I think Hill starts next season in Erie and it will be sunk or swim. He will be an interesting one when it comes to 40 man spots in December. Would a tanking team choose him in the rule 5? I guess it’s possible.

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Yeah...I might be a bit aggressive in writing off Jones that quickly.  

Daz goes 3 for 3 with a walk and Willi Castro goes 2-4 in last nights Mud Hens playoff win.

 

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12 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I think Hill starts next season in Erie and it will be sunk or swim. He will be an interesting one when it comes to 40 man spots in December. Would a tanking team choose him in the rule 5? I guess it’s possible.

I'd be shocked if he were selected.   I've lost all hope for him turning into any kind of MLB asset.  

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20 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

I'd be shocked if he were selected.   I've lost all hope for him turning into any kind of MLB asset.  

I don’t think I would be shocked. All it takes is one tanking team whose scouts or analytics folks see something in him. He did rate highly in Keith Law’s preseason writeup about the tigers prospects this year. He hasn’t performed well this year, of course. But he does have 35 SBs and supposedly plays great defense. He’s only 22 and could spend another three years in the minors after spending 2019 on a tanking team’s roster. He could easily be another team’s victor reyes. 

I wouldn’t want to lose him in the rule 5, personally. From the tigers perspective, maybe he’s a fourth outfielder with speed and defense in a couple years. It’s hard to give up on a guy that is so young. 

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10 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Jones is capable of going 20-20 and play Gold Glove D.  With around 180 K’s to go with it.  He’s not blocking anyone next year, so why not give him the shot?  At worst, he can be a super utility guy, with Nico, providing the team with a lot of flexibility over the next 5-6 seasons.

 

There is no reason not to make him the starting center fielder next year.  The worst thing that  can happen is you get a top defender who can't hit.  A team in the Tigers position can certainly live with that for a year.  There is a also reasonably good chance he'll provide enough power and speed to stay on as a regular in future years.  

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Is there even a discussion about whether or not Jones will have the starting CF job next season? Seems pretty obvious that will be the case. 

I suppose if there is another Leonys Martin type out there he could get bumped, but I don’t see that happening. I think we got pretty lucky to sign Martin. 

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Matt Manning is featured heavily in a new piece by Kiley McDaniel at FG on how to judge pitching prospects. Excerpts...

 

Quote

 

Tigers righty Matt Manning was the ninth overall pick in 2016, is an athletic 20-year-old who stands 6-foot-6, and was promoted to Double-A last week. In addition to that, he sat 94-96 and hit 98 mph in my look, mixing in a spike curveball that flashed 65 on the 20-80 scale. The positives here are numerous, and very few other minor leaguers could match even a few of these qualities.

The issue with Manning is the same as it was in high school and earlier this season: the consistency of his stuff, the consistency of his command, and the quality of his changeup. At 86-88 mph, Manning’s changeup was firm and lacked life, grading fringe-average just once or twice, often out of the zone. Manning works up in the zone with his four-seam fastball, as the pitch and its plane dictate he should, but the pitch is straight and his command of it is below average. When Manning is having trouble throwing an offspeed pitch for a strike, hitters can sit on the fastball and will have a good chance of getting a straight, elevated strike. This very weakness led to two homers the night I saw him.

 

His curveball got more consistent as the night wore on, a somewhat common development for young power pitchers who gain more feel when the nerves wear off and fatigue prevents them from overthrowing, but his changeup didn’t improve. Manning is a great athlete for his size. Because of that, his shortest path to a big-league starting role is probably to address his command issues by adopting a delivery that allows his athleticism to shine through, aids the repeatability of his mechanics, and allows him to throw more strikes. This could help everything play up a bit and possibly even add movement to his changeup.

As it is now, it appears as though Manning is over-striding. In concert with a slight cross-body delivery, the result is a complication of what could otherwise be a simple motion. In its current form, Manning’s delivery creates some head action at release, among other things. It also makes the act of releasing the ball more physically stressful and thus harder to replicate, which leads to the command issues.

While his numbers have been pretty good this year, Manning belongs to that class of pitcher who will likely have issues with Triple-A and MLB hitters — hitters, in other words, who can catch up to mid-90s velocity and will wait for a strike on an offspeed pitch. In the lower minors, only some hitters have the skill and discipline to do that.

There’s a lot of similarities with Rays righty Tyler Glasnow at the same stage, including the size, the stuff, the extremely long stride, and a profile that may not lead to a challenge until the upper minors. Glasnow took a little longer than expected to work these things out, and I fear Manning may have the same issues until he improves his consistency.

White Sox righty Dylan Cease has a profile similar to Manning’s, with comparable raw stuff. Cease held 95-97, touching 98 mph, into the fifth inning of the start I attended. His mid-70s curve was above average to plus all night, but his control/command made it difficult to project him comfortably as a starter.

As with Manning, Cease’s heater has hop up in the zone. Cease’s plays even better in games, though, because of the slow-to-fast tempo in his delivery that makes the velocity that much more jarring to the hitter. As was true with Manning, Cease’s curve was also inconsistent, but his changeup flashed average a few times and had a good velo differential at 80-82 mph. When considered all together, his current arsenal is more typical of a big-league starter.

The key point with Cease, for me, is that he lacks the feel to start. In Manning’s case, he’s still young and tall (big frames take the longest to develop command) and he has something clear to improve in his delivery, so it isn’t hard to imagine improvement. In Cease’s case, though, he’s two years older, lacks real height, has already endured Tommy John surgery, has trouble holding runners (or did in my look), and has failed to develop much since his underclassman days in high school. Also, there isn’t a clear flaw in his delivery that, if addressed, could unlock more feel.

 

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To summarize...Manning is learning how to pitch instead of just throwing the ball up there.  Since he's only 20, he has the time to do so.

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I am getting excited about Alcantara.  He is never going to hit for any power but .271 at AA with a .335 obp is decent.  I think he's much more likely to be a solid regular than Lugo given his elite defense.  It seems like 90% of the shortstops in the minor leagues are hyped for their defense and the bat is what separates them but I actually think Alcantara might be a cut above most of the very good defensive shortstops when you see some of the plays he makes.  And he looks like he has some flair to him, which is fun for fans.  

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11 hours ago, Shelton said:

Is there even a discussion about whether or not Jones will have the starting CF job next season? Seems pretty obvious that will be the case. 

I suppose if there is another Leonys Martin type out there he could get bumped, but I don’t see that happening. I think we got pretty lucky to sign Martin. 

I agree with all the sentiment of Jones from this board and I don't think there is a discussion.  I believe that RF though is a position the Tigers need to lean more defense and Jones can only fill one of the CF/RF positions.  To my eyes, right field is a much more difficult position to play at Comerica than most other parks.  Castellanos has to move to first base.  We need Jones plus somebody else, and that is where Cameron most likely comes in.  You have to have some guys that can hit too though so I have no problem sacrificing defense in left field with a guy like Stewart or somebody else.   

 

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9 minutes ago, Hart said:

I am getting excited about Alcantara.  He is never going to hit for any power but .271 at AA with a .335 obp is decent.  I think he's much more likely to be a solid regular than Lugo given his elite defense.  It seems like 90% of the shortstops in the minor leagues are hyped for their defense and the bat is what separates them but I actually think Alcantara might be a cut above most of the very good defensive shortstops when you see some of the plays he makes.  And he looks like he has some flair to him, which is fun for fans.  

Also, any number of SS hyped in the minors for their D look a lot less impressive when they have to start dealing with the batted ball speeds they see more regularly in the majors.

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