Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
RandyMarsh

2018 Draft Pick Watch

336 posts in this topic

Since we don't have much else to pay attention to this season I figure I make a thread keeping tabs on our current draft position.  I know many don't care about that but I think it is beneficial to have a better pick so I think it is important.  Currently we sit in the 5th spot tied with the A's and .5 behind Cincy for 4th.  We're 5.5 behind the 3rd spot so its going to take some serious losing(which is expected) to get there.   On the flip side we're only a 1.5 "up" on the Braves in the 9th spot so it is tightly clustered.  A few wins could end up costing us 5-6 draft slots, which to me isn't worth it.  Here's a link to the current standings.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_/group/overall

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Since we don't have much else to pay attention to this season I figure I make a thread keeping tabs on our current draft position.  I know many don't care about that but I think it is beneficial to have a better pick so I think it is important.  Currently we sit in the 5th spot tied with the A's and .5 behind Cincy for 4th.  We're 5.5 behind the 3rd spot so its going to take some serious losing(which is expected) to get there.   On the flip side we're only a 1.5 "up" on the Braves in the 9th spot so it is tightly clustered.  A few wins could end up costing us 5-6 draft slots, which to me isn't worth it.  Here's a link to the current standings.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_/group/overall

I'm hoping for 5 or higher. 4th, as you said, is certainly within reach.

With Miggy - already struggling - out for six days. Vmart done for season. Fulmer likely out too. This is our rotation

1. Jordan Zimmermann 2. Anibal Sanchez 3. Matthew Boyd 4. Buck Farmer 5. Chad Bell/Artie Lewicki

The Phillies, White Sox and Giants are all truly terrible teams too, so not gonna be easy to catch them. That said, I think we are more likely to pick 4 than 9.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we'll end up drafting 4th, though 3rd is within reach.  However, I've been told that it doesn't matter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know what the tiebreakers are.  Record from the previous season?  Rock/paper/scissors?  Number if transactions involving a player named Justin?  Message board vs message board battle royal?  I don't know what it is.

There's a head-to-head 3 game series at Toronto, a 3 game series vs Oakland in Detroit, and a 4 game series vs Chicago in Detroit.  So there's still time to shuffle up the draft board if that's what they want to do.  And with the pitching at hand, the possibility of Castellanos in RF, and a still slumping Cabrera in the lineup, it probably isn't out of the question.

Capture.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/2/2017 at 5:05 PM, Tenacious D said:

I think we'll end up drafting 4th, though 3rd is within reach.  However, I've been told that it doesn't matter.

Its only part of the equation.  If they can't develop the picks, what does it matter who they pick?

At any rate, they'll have plenty of opportunity at high picks over the next few seasons, so we will get to see if Caesar is good at identifying non designated hitters and non relief pitchers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Casimir said:

Its only part of the equation.  If they can't develop the picks, what does it matter who they pick?

At any rate, they'll have plenty of opportunity at high picks over the next few seasons, so we will get to see if Caesar is good at identifying non designated hitters and non relief pitchers.

i don't necessarily agree with the we can't draft 1st round picks bit.

JV
Maybin
Miller
Perry
Turner
Crawford
Hill
Burrows
Manning
Faedo

That's basically 2 guys (Perry, Crawford) we didn't get good value from. Turner was a bust but he was a big part in a big trade (Infante, Anibal). Jury is still out on Hill of course, but Burrows, Manning, Faedo look like winners to this point.

It's not transcendent, i.e. we took Miller over Kershaw, but it's nothing to fret over.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/2/2017 at 5:05 PM, Tenacious D said:

I think we'll end up drafting 4th, though 3rd is within reach.  However, I've been told that it doesn't matter.

Just to add to what I responded up above, trading Upton and Verlander really changes the dynamic for me.  With those two on board next season and hopefully revamped Cabrera and some other pieces falling into line (like Zimmermann being adequate), there's still a decent chance at this team being competitive enough to be in playoff contention.  Now that they've been moved off and the rebuild is fully on, go ahead and tank.  There's simply no chance to sniff a wild card game with what is left in the upper levels of the organization.

I still see farm system as a two part process.  Identify & acquire, and develop.  This team has to nail both.  The higher the draft pick, the bigger the draft pool. But if those choices don't pan out, what good have they done for themselves?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

i don't necessarily agree with the we can't draft 1st round picks bit.

JV
Maybin
Miller
Perry
Turner
Crawford
Hill
Burrows
Manning
Faedo

That's basically 2 guys (Perry, Crawford) we didn't get good value from. Turner was a bust but he was a big part in a big trade (Infante, Anibal). Jury is still out on Hill of course, but Burrows, Manning, Faedo look like winners to this point.

It's not transcendent, i.e. we took Miller over Kershaw, but it's nothing to fret over.

Verlander and Maybin.  The rest of that list is incomplete or a bust.

So was the underlying factor of the failed picks identifying or developing?  Or both?  Or just the nature of draft selections not always panning out?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Verlander and Maybin.  The rest of that list is incomplete or a bust.

So was the underlying factor of the failed picks identifying or developing?  Or both?  Or just the nature of draft selections not always panning out?

Houston Astros drafted Mark Appel and Brady Aiken 1st overall. It's the nature of draft selections. I think if you compare that list to other teams, the Tigers hit on a pretty decent percentage of guys.

I think they've been poor tho in the rounds beyond that, for sure, and in their ability to keep/acquire picks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/4/2017 at 6:03 AM, Casimir said:

I don't know what the tiebreakers are.  Record from the previous season?  Rock/paper/scissors?  Number if transactions involving a player named Justin?  Message board vs message board battle royal?  I don't know what it is.

Had this same question. Here's what a quick google search told me:

Quote

The general draft order is the reverse order of the previous year's standings. If two teams finish with identical records, the previous year's standings of the two teams is the tiebreaker, with the team having a worse record receiving the higher pick.

So that's why we have same record as Oakland but they'd pick ahead of us. 

Phillies, Giants and W Sox all look to be in good position for the top thee pics. A bit of a scrum for pick 4-7 btwn Oak, Det, Cin, NYM. In case of ties, Tigers were better last year than all but the Mets.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎9‎/‎4‎/‎2017 at 11:48 AM, Casimir said:

Verlander and Maybin.  The rest of that list is incomplete or a bust.

Verlander and Miller, I'd say. 

Maybin is an average #10 selection that struggles to stay healthy.

I'd say Maybin is a push, taking it all in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Verlander and Miller, I'd say. 

Maybin is an average #10 selection that struggles to stay healthy.

I'd say Maybin is a push, taking it all in.

Miller and Maybin are interesting cases.

Miller has had quite a bipolar career.  Part of that could be explained by age and professional growth I suppose.  But he was awful through age 26, a good reliever at 27-28 (although he still had a very high BB9, his SO9 shot up) and then he astronomically catapulted at the age of 29.  So, yes, he probably should be included.

Maybin, like you said, is just a guy that hasn't been able to stay healthy long enough.  So, OK, maybe Maybin is not an interesting case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, irvink said:

Had this same question. Here's what a quick google search told me:

So that's why we have same record as Oakland but they'd pick ahead of us. 

Phillies, Giants and W Sox all look to be in good position for the top thee pics. A bit of a scrum for pick 4-7 btwn Oak, Det, Cin, NYM. In case of ties, Tigers were better last year than all but the Mets.

So the Tigers will sweep Oakland.  Heck, Zimmermann will throw a complete game shutout.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, irvink said:

Had this same question. Here's what a quick google search told me:

So that's why we have same record as Oakland but they'd pick ahead of us. 

Phillies, Giants and W Sox all look to be in good position for the top thee pics. A bit of a scrum for pick 4-7 btwn Oak, Det, Cin, NYM. In case of ties, Tigers were better last year than all but the Mets.

I read that quote from Google to mean that the tiebreaker is head-to-head, not year before. The phrase "previous year" would have to have two different meanings otherwise.  I'm not saying you're wrong, but it seems ambiguous to me.

 

EDIT: looks like my reading is wrong.  Perhaps the quote from Google is just a somewhat inarticulate paraphrase of the rule.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem i have with how they have been running the draft and international markets is their philosophy.

They lean heavily towards college guys and arms over bats. I posted a while ago that in the second they went college in 9-10 drafts (with the exception being Jake Thompson). And 7 of those were arms. Toss in that they value college relievers as highly as they do and you wind up with the kind of system they have. A high school kid will tend to have a higher ceiling and lower floor than an equally graded college guy. So they have a lot of guys with nice skills but modest tools.

Internationally they have spread their money out over more players rather than go after the big fish. The biggest bonus they have given is like 1.1M while each year the top players get around 3M.

They have had a few success stories and with very high picks they will go after ceiling. But the absolute failure of this organization in developing all star level hitter/fielders starts here.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, if teams are tied in record in 2017, then the worse 2016 record is the tiebreaker for who picks first.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last night:  Reds win, Tigers win, Mets lose.  Tigers move from 5th draft pick to 6th.  Or, the standings here are incorrect for the purposes of the draft because the Mets finished a game ahead of the Tigers in 2016.  So there you go, Tigers 5th draft pick, Mets 6th draft pick.

Capture.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't believe the Mets were this bad this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

I can't believe the Mets were this bad this year. 

That's what happens when you build around pitching.  It is the quickest way to success and the quickest way to failure.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/4/2017 at 11:48 AM, Casimir said:

Verlander and Maybin.  The rest of that list is incomplete or a bust.

So was the underlying factor of the failed picks identifying or developing?  Or both?  Or just the nature of draft selections not always panning out?

The 18th pick of the 1st round, the 9th pick of the 3rd round and the 15th pick of the 5th round will all be All Stars. The rest will all be busts. But go ahead, root for them to lose. We can all laugh about it in 3 or 4 yeas when this 5th overall pick doesn't work out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

That's what happens when you build around pitching.  It is the quickest way to success and the quickest way to failure.  

Comforto, Granderson, Bruce, Cespedes and Flores put up pretty pretty respectable numbers IMO.  Walker and Reyes were disappointments, and of course Wright is MIA.  Injuries bug looks like it caught them bad.  DeGrom was really their only healthy starter this year, as Gesselman (17 starts and seemingly healthy) is the only one with a shot to crack 20 starts this season for them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0