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Casimir

08/04/2017 7:05pm Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles

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9 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

JD is a paradox.  He provides enormous value to any team, but no one will give you anything decent for him on a rental as a corner bat, even though he is one of the best corner bats that there is.  I want to see what kind of offers he gets - he is far superior to last winter's unwanted crop, but is still a corner bat who does not give you much else.

I think that teams will head in the direction of having 9 guys who can all hit 12 to 18 homers.  It seems attainable because the ball is juiced, and because of the availability of launch angle and exit velocity, the uncontestable proof of what Ted Williams was saying 50 years ago.  If you can put together a lineup like that, why would you pay Upton $20 million to hit 27 homers and not be a particularly good fielder or baserunner?

JD is different, he's not Upton.  You might pay him a lot of money to hit 45 homers and OPS over 1.000.  There are some teams who should think about it - the Red Sox certainly should.

JD would be a prototypical LF. For some reason he didn't play well there as compared to RF when he came up in '14 and that was that.  I'm sure that uncertainly about his availability for LF is one of the things that hurts his trade value. Most teams would rather play him in left I would guess..

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1 hour ago, SeattleMike said:

I'm assuming this list represents the Tigers last 20 4th round picks? Cody Ross had a career WAR of 13.3. Andres Torres a career WAR of 7.7. Charlie Furbush 1.3. That means 15 percent of these picks returned an average WAR of 7.3. I'm very skeptical that Lugo et al have a 15% change of earning more than 7.3 WAR. In Fangraphs analysis of the trade their projections for the AZ trio are pretty darn bearish. I just wouldn't have bothered if I were Avila. I would have kept Martinez and hoped the Tigers could catch fire and then take my 4th round pick. When weighing all the options its seems keeping Martinez for August and September in hopes the Tigers turn it around may have been the best--because the prospect haul/4th round draft pick math appears fairly even. 

Yeah, I don't hate the trade but I would not have pulled the trigger on it.

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It's way too early to make any judgement on the JD trade. Those 3 players we received may turn out to be good to very good. I remember the Tigers winning a division with the acquisition of Doyle Alexander. And we stole him for an AA pitcher nobody ever heard of or gave much of a chance.

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2 hours ago, SeattleMike said:

And I doubt Lugo plus will even equal 1.115. Give me 2 more months of Martinez, with improved odds of making the rest of 2017 interesting plus a draft pick whose odds of matching the potential of the AZ trio are about equal

 

 

I don't think this is anywhere close to true. 

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22 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

It's way too early to make any judgement on the JD trade. Those 3 players we received may turn out to be good to very good. I remember the Tigers winning a division with the acquisition of Doyle Alexander. And we stole him for an AA pitcher nobody ever heard of or gave much of a chance.

The only known in any of this is that JD would have given the Tigers a better chance to win these last two months, in a year when a hot streak could vault you back into WC contention quickly. I'll take that over three exceedingly fringy prospects. 

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3 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

The only known in any of this is that JD would have given the Tigers a better chance to win these last two months, in a year when a hot streak could vault you back into WC contention quickly. I'll take that over three exceedingly fringy prospects. 

You keep saying that they would have a better chance to win. Don't you think the first 100 games is probably who they are? 

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3 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

You keep saying that they would have a better chance to win. Don't you think the first 100 games is probably who they are? 

I don't think so, but it is who they were when they needed to make a decision to trade or not.

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Just now, Keepleyland2 said:

You keep saying that they would have a better chance to win. Don't you think the first 100 games is probably who they are? 

And they've been getting decent production out of the RF position. Not JD but guys getting on base.

And I will take the 3 players for JD. We need to build up our farm system and that means we need to identify young talent. 

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1 minute ago, Casimir said:

I don't think so, but it is who they were when they needed to make a decision to trade or not.

I just don't get the whole argument. 

There was/is very little chance we get hot over the last two months. If they are going to do that you'd probably see some flashes, but we hadn't seen much. Even with this nice winning 2/3 and three game wining streak we are currently six games back in the WC. (not to mention the likelyhood of beating Cleveland/Houston, Boston, other Wild card team, and then a national league team in series is pretty low).

Well we should have tried and just taken a fourth round pick. OK fair enough. If that's your line of thinking. But, you want the truth about most fourth round picks? Most pleatu around AA. Lugo is there and excelling and we got two other pieces.

Sure you occassionaly find a Kluber in round 4. Realistic your best hope is to find a Adam Warren. And that's a best hope. Most likely you are getting someone who his .212 at Erie and is out of baseball after six years. 

But, as I said, Lugo is already there and excelling that already puts him ahead of about 80 percent of fourth round picks, and you don't have to wait 4 years for him to get to Erie. He might not make it at the major league level, but he's got a huge leg up on a fourth round pick and that alone is reason to make the deal (if its the best out there, wish we would have gotten more too) then you throw in two other guys. 

I get wanting to win this year. Thats fine and if you want to keep trying its fine, but I disagree with 100 games under your belt you are probably what your record is. But, the whole package for JD amounting to a fourth round pick is seriously flawed. 

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3 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I just don't get the whole argument. 

Just to be clear, I think that the rotation is better than it showed.  But because of what it was showing, it was difficult for me to see the Tigers going on enough of a streak to get back into it.

And I'm not interested in making trades to get to the wild card.  Too many circumstances surrounding this team to be playing for that.

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44 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I don't think this is anywhere close to true. 

Yeah, Al was quoted as saying that King, the 3rd player in the deal, would have had a 2nd round grade in the Tigers mind if he were draft eligible.

Maybe they should have kept JD, but what they got was waaaay better than a 4th round pick.

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4 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

 

Maybe they should have kept JD, but what they got was waaaay better than a 4th round pick.

Bingo. 

If you want to keep JD because you wanted to win, fine, I disagree but I get it. But, to then take the leap that the package we got back is as good as a fourth round pick is seriously flawed and shows a lack of getting the draft and player development. 

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I was going to comment that he sure seemed due for one by now, and by golly there he does it. 

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40 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Yeah, Al was quoted as saying that King, the 3rd player in the deal, would have had a 2nd round grade in the Tigers mind if he were draft eligible.

Maybe they should have kept JD, but what they got was waaaay better than a 4th round pick.

I guess if the Tigers really considered King the equivalent of a second round pick then I understand why they pulled the trigger. The other two guys are, as Dave Cameron on Fangraphs said  "just come guys who play baseball." I wouldn't have made the trade though, not for the 3 guys they received and not when one 8 game winning streak could put you back in the hunt. 

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Just now, SeattleMike said:

I guess if the Tigers really considered King the equivalent of a second round pick then I understand why they pulled the trigger. The other two guys are, as Dave Cameron on Fangraphs said  "just come guys who play baseball." I wouldn't have made the trade though, not for the 3 guys they received and not when one 8 game winning streak could put you back in the hunt. 

Nothing like banking on 8 game winning streak

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Just now, Keepleyland2 said:

Nothing like banking on 8 game winning streak

I would suggest an 8-game winning streak is more likely than any of these three guys amounting to anything. 

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6 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

I would suggest an 8-game winning streak is more likely than any of these three guys amounting to anything. 

What do you think we got back? You do realize they aren't god awful right? Even in a utility role for Lugo and the other two don't amount to much that's gonna be about a 1 WAR. Way better than any fourth round pick and highly more likely than an 8 game winning streak just to put us back in the hunt. 

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14 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

What do you think we got back? You do realize they aren't god awful right? 

I would not be surprised in none of them made significant contributions.  They probably were not going to get back in the race though, so it probably won't matter.  

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JV looking pretty good but gives him another homer and the Tigers trail 2-1 after 3.  Tigers weren't ready to leave the field after the 3rd out, looked ready to gift Baltimore another batter.

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