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08/04/2017 7:05pm Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles

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Live from Baltimore, Maryland...

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Detroit Tigers (50-57) Baltimore Orioles (53-55)

TV on FSD.  Radio on 97.1 the Ticket and your MLB At Bat app.

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The best news is that Fulmer received an X-ray test, which showed no structural damage to his elbow. But it’s the second time this season he’s dealt with an injury: In mid-June, he was diagnosed with right shoulder bursitis.

“Honestly, it’s kind of the best-case scenario in my mind,” Fulmer said. “Everything came back clean. I’ll be OK once everything gets calmed down, but we gotta get it calmed down. Time heals a lot of things and hopefully time heals that one.”

If it doesn’t, then the Tigers could be forced to consider surgery as an option, though Rand stressed it is not something that is currently on the table.

“Obviously we’re not of that mindset right now because the fact is, it’s something he’s dealt with on his own,” Rand said. “It’s not something unusual to him. … At this point, we’re not looking in that direction. Then if we get to that point, then we can talk about that. Present time, we haven’t explored that as an option at this point in time. If we get to that point, then we’ll talk about it.”

If surgery is required, it likely would be one to release the nerve or perform a transposition where the nerve would be moved out of the tunnel its located in. Recovery time for that would be about three months, so it could be an off-season procedure, though the Tigers are optimistic he will avoid such a surgery.

 

I'm actually more worried about a nerve thing vs tommy john.

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3 minutes ago, kdog said:

I'm actually more worried about a nerve thing vs tommy john.

Why is that? I think a potential surgery to ease compression on a nerve sounds a lot better than a ligament replacement. A recovery time of three months sounds better than a recovery time greater than a year. 

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10 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Why is that? I think a potential surgery to ease compression on a nerve sounds a lot better than a ligament replacement. A recovery time of three months sounds better than a recovery time greater than a year. 

Well the trust factor for the Tigs medical staff is low. Plus when I hear nerve plus tingling, I always go back to Bondo. I know the thoracic outlet thing is much worse.

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Just now, kdog said:

Well the trust factor for the Tigs medical staff is low. Plus when I hear nerve plus tingling, I always go back to Bondo. I know the thoracic outlet thing is much worse.

Yeah, there are sure things when it comes to surgery. If Fulmer only has this nerve issue, it probably isn't a big deal. Greene had it, too, but he also had the artery issue in his shoulder. 

But greene came back fine at the start of the next season. He still had some tingling or whatever, but that was due to the circulation thing, not the nerve. 

He got the blister thing in early 2016, and then had an oblique injury. He could probably still be a starter if they hadn't abandoned it last year. 

Until the Fulmer thing becomes more than just the nerve, I will be optimistic. 

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40 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Yeah, there are sure things when it comes to surgery. If Fulmer only has this nerve issue, it probably isn't a big deal. Greene had it, too, but he also had the artery issue in his shoulder. 

But greene came back fine at the start of the next season. He still had some tingling or whatever, but that was due to the circulation thing, not the nerve. 

He got the blister thing in early 2016, and then had an oblique injury. He could probably still be a starter if they hadn't abandoned it last year. 

Until the Fulmer thing becomes more than just the nerve, I will be optimistic. 

Greene also talked about still having symptoms at the start of THIS year. Which is a little scary. Obviously it doesn't seem to be impacting his performance any longer

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2 hours ago, kdog said:

I'm actually more worried about a nerve thing vs tommy john.

Exactly. Nerve damage and the "tingling" he feels would be permanent if the nerve gets damaged. Especially worrisome is the fact he didn't feel any pain. Nerves don't regenerate. Numbness and the tingling is somewhat like when you sleep on your arm and it falls asleep.

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2 hours ago, Shelton said:

Why is that? I think a potential surgery to ease compression on a nerve sounds a lot better than a ligament replacement. A recovery time of three months sounds better than a recovery time greater than a year. 

The answer to this is because if a ligament gets/is damaged, it can be repaired. A damaged nerve isn't something that can ever be repaired. I just hope it's only pressure on the nerve, pinching it. If there's already nerve damage, believe it or not, it could be career ending. But that is a worst case scenario. Let's hope for the best.

Hey Mike? Rub some dirt on it and get out there....lazy bum.  ?

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1 hour ago, pyrotigers said:

Greene also talked about still having symptoms at the start of THIS year. Which is a little scary. Obviously it doesn't seem to be impacting his performance any longer

And there were other pitchers who came back from the same surgery Bonderman had. Everyone heals at a different rate so it's impossible to predict. Just hope for the the best and hope they caught it in time. How do they go about avoiding a recurrance? Best guess is to avoid the movements that caused it in the first place. Either a certain pitch or even pitching at all. It's just a reminder that throwing a baseball, over and over, isn't a normal activity for most people. Repetitive motions can cause many  problems. Just another reason signing pitchers long term is so risky.

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4 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

And there were other pitchers who came back from the same surgery Bonderman had.

VerHagen had it also and the results have been - ambiguous at best. In his case it's unclear if he can't recover completely or just was never that good initially.

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46 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

VerHagen had it also and the results have been - ambiguous at best. In his case it's unclear if he can't recover completely or just was never that good initially.

Lol. True, he may not have been that good to begin with.

My concern is Fulmer. Not Bondo or any other player who had/has something similar. If the tendon is flaring up and putting pressure on the nerve, they need to find the cause and see if they can prevent it in the future. Everyone is different and people often don't respond exactly the same. My gut tells me Fulmer will be fine but there is still reason for concern.

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1 hour ago, Casimir said:

Schwarber is healthy, isn't he?

I think he is. I know Matthews is still hurting. Arm replacement surgery isnt perfected yet.

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Pursuant to nothing is this thread, what was the point of trading JD if the return was going to be so meaningless? Today's Free Press analyzes the trade in the context of the current environment and concludes that there was hardly any market for outfielders, especially rentals, which somehow exonerates Avila for the dreadful return he received.

My reaction is why in the heck trade him at all then? It's very likely he will return more value in the last 2 months of this season (partly by enhancing the Tigers chances of getting back into the WC race) and in the 4th round pick his off season departure will yield than the 3 stiffs Detroit acquired from AZ. 

My other reaction is if you decide a guy with trade-worthy value is going to get too expensive or no longer in your team's plans you need to move him a year earlier. Perhaps this is an overreaction to what happened this year, but it seems the trend now is to pay very little for rentals. I understand this is simple to state in theory and difficult to execute in reality (what would the reaction have been last year if Avila had traded JD at the deadline), but it appears that the days of getting real value for 2-month rentals may be coming to a close. 

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1 hour ago, SeattleMike said:

Pursuant to nothing is this thread, what was the point of trading JD if the return was going to be so meaningless? Today's Free Press analyzes the trade in the context of the current environment and concludes that there was hardly any market for outfielders, especially rentals, which somehow exonerates Avila for the dreadful return he received.

My reaction is why in the heck trade him at all then? It's very likely he will return more value in the last 2 months of this season (partly by enhancing the Tigers chances of getting back into the WC race) and in the 4th round pick his off season departure will yield than the 3 stiffs Detroit acquired from AZ. 

My other reaction is if you decide a guy with trade-worthy value is going to get too expensive or no longer in your team's plans you need to move him a year earlier. Perhaps this is an overreaction to what happened this year, but it seems the trend now is to pay very little for rentals. I understand this is simple to state in theory and difficult to execute in reality (what would the reaction have been last year if Avila had traded JD at the deadline), but it appears that the days of getting real value for 2-month rentals may be coming to a close. 

I think it's way too early to judge the trade objectively. You can certainly subjectively judge it. It hurts to see him performing well somewhere else, but if we weren't going to resign him we had to get something for him.

I would also venture a guess that Lugo has already gotten further than a lot of fourth round picks.

If the three of those guys come together through performance and trades to provide more than how ever many MLB WAR JD earns the rest of this season before they earn a comparable amount of salary to whatever JD had left, I think you can say it was a good enough trade. ****, there are other concerns too - the brass may already feel the trade was a win, depending on their organizational objectives. 

Or, I'm just rationalizing.

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I'll take Lugo+2 over the field of these 4th round picks

Gio Arriera 
Kyle Funkhouser 
Kade Scivicque 
Adam Ravenelle 
Austin Kubitza 
Drew VerHagen 
Jason King 
Cole Green 
Edwin Gomez 
Brett Jacobson 
Charlie Furbush 
Ryan Strieby 
Kevin Whelan 
Collin Mahoney 
Josh Rainwater 
Robbie Sovie 
Mike Rabelo 
Mark Woodyard 
Cody Ross 
Andres Torres 

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15 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

I'll take Lugo+2 over the field of these 4th round picks

Gio Arriera 
Kyle Funkhouser 
Kade Scivicque 
Adam Ravenelle 
Austin Kubitza 
Drew VerHagen 
Jason King 
Cole Green 
Edwin Gomez 
Brett Jacobson 
Charlie Furbush 
Ryan Strieby 
Kevin Whelan 
Collin Mahoney 
Josh Rainwater 
Robbie Sovie 
Mike Rabelo 
Mark Woodyard 
Cody Ross 
Andres Torres 

I'm assuming this list represents the Tigers last 20 4th round picks? Cody Ross had a career WAR of 13.3. Andres Torres a career WAR of 7.7. Charlie Furbush 1.3. That means 15 percent of these picks returned an average WAR of 7.3. I'm very skeptical that Lugo et al have a 15% change of earning more than 7.3 WAR. In Fangraphs analysis of the trade their projections for the AZ trio are pretty darn bearish. I just wouldn't have bothered if I were Avila. I would have kept Martinez and hoped the Tigers could catch fire and then take my 4th round pick. When weighing all the options its seems keeping Martinez for August and September in hopes the Tigers turn it around may have been the best--because the prospect haul/4th round draft pick math appears fairly even. 

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5 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

 That means 15 percent of these picks returned an average WAR of 7.3.

It also means that 100% of these picks returned an average WAR of 1.115.

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2 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

It also means that 100% of these picks returned an average WAR of 1.115.

And I doubt Lugo plus will even equal 1.115. Give me 2 more months of Martinez, with improved odds of making the rest of 2017 interesting plus a draft pick whose odds of matching the potential of the AZ trio are about equal. 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

I'm assuming this list represents the Tigers last 20 4th round picks? Cody Ross had a career WAR of 13.3. Andres Torres a career WAR of 7.7. Charlie Furbush 1.3. That means 15 percent of these picks returned an average WAR of 7.3. I'm very skeptical that Lugo et al have a 15% change of earning more than 7.3 WAR. In Fangraphs analysis of the trade their projections for the AZ trio are pretty darn bearish. I just wouldn't have bothered if I were Avila. I would have kept Martinez and hoped the Tigers could catch fire and then take my 4th round pick. When weighing all the options its seems keeping Martinez for August and September in hopes the Tigers turn it around may have been the best--because the prospect haul/4th round draft pick math appears fairly even. 

Al would never admit it in public, but I don't think his long range plans for the Tigers have ever included JD in right or Nick at 3B. Not the team he wants to build now that it's his choice.

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JD is a paradox.  He provides enormous value to any team, but no one will give you anything decent for him on a rental as a corner bat, even though he is one of the best corner bats that there is.  I want to see what kind of offers he gets - he is far superior to last winter's unwanted crop, but is still a corner bat who does not give you much else.

I think that teams will head in the direction of having 9 guys who can all hit 12 to 18 homers.  It seems attainable because the ball is juiced, and because of the availability of launch angle and exit velocity, the uncontestable proof of what Ted Williams was saying 50 years ago.  If you can put together a lineup like that, why would you pay Upton $20 million to hit 27 homers and not be a particularly good fielder or baserunner?

JD is different, he's not Upton.  You might pay him a lot of money to hit 45 homers and OPS over 1.000.  There are some teams who should think about it - the Red Sox certainly should.

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4 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

think that teams will head in the direction of having 9 guys who can all hit 12 to 18 homers.  It seems attainable because the ball is juiced, and because of the availability of launch angle and exit velocity, the uncontestable proof of what Ted Williams was saying 50 years ago.  If you can put together a lineup like that, why would you pay Upton $20 million to hit 27 homers and not be a particularly good fielder or baserunner?

I have been thinking about this quite a bit lately. There is a strange thing going on where home runs themselves are being devalued but a certain baseline amount of power is going to become a requirement to stick on a big league roster. I am curious to see how people like Fangraphs break it all down in terms of value. Offense is still obviously king, but with so many minor league stars capable of putting up much better numbers in the majors than they did in the minors due to the juiced ball and the launch angles, that baserunning and defense stuff is going to start to take on huge value. It will be interesting when teams becoming willing to pay more money for a WAR worth of defense/baserunning than they are to pay for the same amount of offense due to the overwhelming amount of supply. 

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