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19 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

I don;t see it as a pure payroll slash.   If you can save $4-6M by using someone that is essentially the same player - Machado for Iggy, why not do it?   Use that extra cash somewhere else.

I think Iglesias fields significantly better than Machado and I don't know that Machado would be any better offensively playing full time.  

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6 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I think Iglesias fields significantly better than Machado and I don't know that Machado would be any better offensively playing full time.  

Without seeing machado for an extended period, this is about all any of us can say. I guess the question becomes whether or not the team agrees based on what they may know about machado's fielding. 

I don't think machado would be better offensively either. But I do think he would probably match the offensive production. 

So even being conservative with machado's defense being average, how many more wins is iglesias's glove worth. One? Is that worth paying him and punting on machado's development? Maybe. Is the team prepared to extend Iglesias beyond next year? If so, then keep him. If not, then seeing what we have with machado could be worth the risk that he is a win (or more) worse than Iglesias in 2018. 

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Not sure if you are saying non-tender him or not, but that should not happen.

Even if Machado's defense is as good as Iggy's, which it is not, you keep them both, unless of course you can make a good trade. Iggy's contract is less than market IMO so it's still an asset.

And of course if they'll still be taking offers on Ian, 2B might open up anyways.

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1 hour ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Not sure if you are saying non-tender him or not, but that should not happen.

Even if Machado's defense is as good as Iggy's, which it is not, you keep them both, unless of course you can make a good trade. Iggy's contract is less than market IMO so it's still an asset.

And of course if they'll still be taking offers on Ian, 2B might open up anyways.

Yup. Our 2b will be 36 next season. His career could end any day by injury of loss of hand-eye. It's not like we have any other proven middle IFs after Dixon ready to step into the breach. Sure we have Lugo - who has proved nothing yet and that is it. For that matter Iglesias could get hurt. I don't think you ever want to not have three guys with at least an MLB caliber middle infield glove on a team. 

And Romine being 32 could be within a yr of the end of his rope as well. Utility level bats are often already on the way down then - see Everitt - Adam.

We bitched at DD not keeping any depth for years.

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6 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Yup. Our 2b will be 36 next season. His career could end any day by injury of loss of hand-eye. It's not like we have any other proven middle IFs after Dixon ready to step into the breach. Sure we have Lugo - who has proved nothing yet and that is it. For that matter Iglesias could get hurt. I don't think you ever want to not have three guys with at least an MLB caliber middle infield glove on a team. 

And Romine being 32 could be within a yr of the end of his rope as well. Utility level bats are often already on the way down then - see Everitt - Adam.

We bitched at DD not keeping any depth for years.

Agreed.

You bring up Romine which raises another point--if you dump Iggy, you'd probably have to keep Romine, so that's $1.5M-$2M less that you'd be saving.

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1 hour ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Not sure if you are saying non-tender him or not, but that should not happen.

Even if Machado's defense is as good as Iggy's, which it is not, you keep them both, unless of course you can make a good trade. Iggy's contract is less than market IMO so it's still an asset.

And of course if they'll still be taking offers on Ian, 2B might open up anyways.

No, I'm not advocating that they should nontender him. But I could understand the argument behind nontendering him if they are shut out from being able to trade him. I don't think I would personally decide to do that, but there are least some reasons where it could make sense. 

I am also a bit skeptical of his surplus value. Value is only value if you can convert it. And in jose's case, it's tough to see a team that would give up anything for him with a year left on his contract, whether he's paid the minimum, 3 million, 6 million, or 9 million. 

The royals and Marlins jumped out as teams that could really use him. That's assuming Alicedes signs elsewhere. But I think he's going to end up back in KC. 

Still, I think I would keep Jose if we can't trade him, and depending on how 2018 goes maybe even try to extend him before free agency hits if he is still putting up 2 war. 

That said, how much does he make as a free agent?

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16 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Agreed.

You bring up Romine which raises another point--if you dump Iggy, you'd probably have to keep Romine, so that's $1.5M-$2M less that you'd be saving.

I think it just depends on what the team Ian trying to do next season. If they are trying to contend for a playoff spot, then you don't trade Iglesias or Kinsler or anyone for that matter unless you are getting back a valuable return (not for another alcantara).

If they are taking a step back and trying to reset for 2019, and if Iglesias doesn't figure into the 2019 plans, then it's more about the opportunity to see machado as much as possible than it is to save money. 

I don't really care about depth if the team is rebuilding. Play infante for all I care. 

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4 minutes ago, Shelton said:

No, I'm not advocating that they should nontender him. But I could understand the argument behind nontendering him if they are shut out from being able to trade him. I don't think I would personally decide to do that, but there are least some reasons where it could make sense. 

I am also a bit skeptical of his surplus value. Value is only value if you can convert it. And in jose's case, it's tough to see a team that would give up anything for him with a year left on his contract, whether he's paid the minimum, 3 million, 6 million, or 9 million. 

The royals and Marlins jumped out as teams that could really use him. That's assuming Alicedes signs elsewhere. But I think he's going to end up back in KC. 

Still, I think I would keep Jose if we can't trade him, and depending on how 2018 goes maybe even try to extend him before free agency hits if he is still putting up 2 war. 

That said, how much does he make as a free agent?

I think he'd get $6M-$9M on a 1 year deal. It's not much surplus value right now for sure, but I doubt the Tigers would do better spending that money elsewhere.

If you are looking at it as 1-1.5 WAR isn't going to make a difference for the team and you want to save all the money you can, then a non-tender is an option. If you are looking to build value, then keeping him until you can trade him for a prospect, either in the off-season, or during the 2018 season and maybe winning an extra game or two in the process, is the way to go. If you can't do that, well he's still valuable to the team and you haven't spent that much more money. His defense has been locked in enough the past 2 seasons that I don't see him losing value.

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Just now, Shelton said:

I think it just depends on what the team Ian trying to do next season. If they are trying to contend for a playoff spot, then you don't trade Iglesias or Kinsler or anyone for that matter unless you are getting back a valuable return (not for another alcantara).

If they are taking a step back and trying to reset for 2019, and if Iglesias doesn't figure into the 2019 plans, then it's more about the opportunity to see machado as much as possible than it is to save money. 

I don't really care about depth if the team is rebuilding. Play infante for all I care. 

If they're not going to try from the get go, they should try and deal everyone but Fulmer. Throw some money in with Upton and JV, cut Victor, build up Nick's value to trade him, showcase Greene as much as you can and trade him, throw money in with Ian and trade him, and do what they did with Maybin with Iggy--if you can find a deal pre-arb do it (can include $$$ as well if you get a prospect that's worth it), or non-tender. Alex Wilson is a guy you treat that same way. Romine has no value so you non-tender him.

That's all a legitimate option if that's the direction they want to take, and it'd probably start with a JV deal. If JV is dealt, any playoff hopes are probably gone, and there'd be little point to pay Ian and Upton, or Iggy. But I think as long as JV is on the team, it's hard to full-tank.

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Kinda sadistic to see what a full-tank lineup would be:

McCann

Miggy, Lugo, Machado, Candelario

Mahtook, Gerber, Castellanos

Stewart

Hicks, ???, ??? (bench)

Fulmer, Norris, Boyd (heh), Znn (lol), Farmer (rofl)

Greene, Jimenez, Garcia, Rondon, Stumpf, Labork, AWilson, Saupold

At that stage I'd probably try Alex Wilson as a SP just to fill things out. And you might as well shoot for the moon on a Fulmer trade if someone like Atlanta is willing. 2020 would be the target date.

Edit: you of course might get a "starter" or two from a JV trade. Possibly from a Upton and Ian trade too, if they want include some money to buy some.

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3 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

If they're not going to try from the get go, they should try and deal everyone but Fulmer. Throw some money in with Upton and JV, cut Victor, build up Nick's value to trade him, showcase Greene as much as you can and trade him, throw money in with Ian and trade him, and do what they did with Maybin with Iggy--if you can find a deal pre-arb do it (can include $$$ as well if you get a prospect that's worth it), or non-tender. Alex Wilson is a guy you treat that same way. Romine has no value so you non-tender him.

That's all a legitimate option if that's the direction they want to take, and it'd probably start with a JV deal. If JV is dealt, any playoff hopes are probably gone, and there'd be little point to pay Ian and Upton, or Iggy. But I think as long as JV is on the team, it's hard to full-tank.

Lots of ways to play it. I do think there is also a middle ground. Full tank is an option, which means trading every last player that doesn't fit into 2019 plans. Full compete means keeping everyone and signing a free agent or two and hoping the young pitching figures things out. in either case, you could probably swap Iglesias and machado. Iglesias can be part of the future, too, so he could stay on team tank. But it also doesn't kill your chances to compete if you go with machado, especially given that you will be up against the tax. Maybe you would rather spend 5 million on a platoon bat or a reliever or fister type reclamation starter. 

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3 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Kinda sadistic to see what a full-tank lineup would be:

McCann

Miggy, Lugo, Machado, Candelario

Mahtook, Gerber, Castellanos

Stewart

Hicks, ???, ??? (bench)

Fulmer, Norris, Boyd (heh), Znn (lol), Farmer (rofl)

Greene, Jimenez, Garcia, Rondon, Stumpf, Labork, AWilson, Saupold

At that stage I'd probably try Alex Wilson as a SP just to fill things out. And you might as well shoot for the moon on a Fulmer trade if someone like Atlanta is willing. 2020 would be the target date.

That's amazing. Although with full tank, I think they probably leave gerber and Lugo and Stewart in Toledo and roll with the duece and Presley. Full tank gotta have Victor. 

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Typing that horror out, I'm wondering with the draft cap and the new CBA kinda putting the kabosh on over-spending internationally, if the new way to build your farm system is to trade veterans with a lot of cash. CHC and LAD bought a lot of their prospects the old way, maybe the Tigers could do it this new way.

I would have to think, if JV and JUp finish the year strong, the Tigers could get some really good prospects if they throw in $10M a year with the deals. And they could get some real good prospects just by dealing Fulmer. They could probably have a top 5 system with 3 trades and a lot of cash. Ian as well.

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6 minutes ago, Shelton said:

That's amazing. Although with full tank, I think they probably leave gerber and Lugo and Stewart in Toledo and roll with the duece and Presley. Full tank gotta have Victor. 

That's true. They could keep Victor and sign a lot of minor league FA types to fill out the MLB roster, and let a lot of the prospects stay in the minors. When Stewart is ready then Victor shuffles off.

Otoh you could also cut Victor in order to throw Miggy as the full-time DH--you still want to keep him as healthy as you can for future years.

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1 minute ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Typing that horror out, I'm wondering with the draft cap and the new CBA kinda putting the kabosh on over-spending internationally, if the new way to build your farm system is to trade veterans with a lot of cash. CHC and LAD bought a lot of their prospects the old way, maybe the Tigers could do it this new way.

I would have to think, if JV and JUp finish the year strong, the Tigers could get some really good prospects if they throw in $10M a year with the deals. And they could get some real good prospects just by dealing Fulmer. They could probably have a top 5 system with 3 trades and a lot of cash. Ian as well.

Trade everyone that isn't your plans two years down the line. Eat as much money as you can. However, I think everyone is on to the idea of kicking in money to get better prospects. I don't think that really works. We all say the tigers should eat money to get a better prospect from the Astros or dodgers or whatever, but the Astros and dodgers have little interest in selling a prospect for money. They would much rather take on most of contract and give up less in player value. 

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Just now, Shelton said:

Trade everyone that isn't your plans two years down the line. Eat as much money as you can. However, I think everyone is on to the idea of kicking in money to get better prospects. I don't think that really works. We all say the tigers should eat money to get a better prospect from the Astros or dodgers or whatever, but the Astros and dodgers have little interest in selling a prospect for money. They would much rather take on most of contract and give up less in player value. 

The Astros are pretty cheap, and there's always another team out there whose owner doesn't want to spend money but wants to go for it. I agree the Dodgers would not be interested in such a thing.

I doubt the Tigers are considering such a thing right now, but if I'm HOU, WAS, NYY or BOS I might do something like that before Aug. 31. Cardinals could be a dark horse, in that they have non-negligible chance this year and could use JV for 2018/19.

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3 hours ago, Shelton said:

Without seeing machado for an extended period, this is about all any of us can say. I guess the question becomes whether or not the team agrees based on what they may know about machado's fielding. 

I don't think machado would be better offensively either. But I do think he would probably match the offensive production. 

So even being conservative with machado's defense being average, how many more wins is iglesias's glove worth. One? Is that worth paying him and punting on machado's development? Maybe. Is the team prepared to extend Iglesias beyond next year? If so, then keep him. If not, then seeing what we have with machado could be worth the risk that he is a win (or more) worse than Iglesias in 2018. 

I think y'all are selling Machado's defense short. His range, hands are both above average and his arm has got to be near plus. 

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19 minutes ago, Longgone said:

I think y'all are selling Machado's defense short. His range, hands are both above average and his arm has got to be near plus. 

I think it's very good. I think Iggy is top 2-5 in MLB, which Machado is not.

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With seemingly more and more guys going the 3 true outcome route it begs the question how much is premier defense even worth now?

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20 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

With seemingly more and more guys going the 3 true outcome route it begs the question how much is premier defense even worth now?

It's still worth a lot, same as it ever was. Same as it ever was.

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27 minutes ago, Longgone said:

It's still worth a lot, same as it ever was. Same as it ever was.

And things change season to season. Who knows what the baseballs will look like season, or what the analytic adjustment will be to all the launch angle increases.

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It's probably not the same as it ever was.  Fewer balls in play reduces the importance of defense somewhat, but it is still important. It's also true that these things are not static.  If they adjust the strike zone like they have been talking about, that could change things too.   

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7 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

It's probably not the same as it ever was.  Fewer balls in play reduces the importance of defense somewhat, but it is still important. It's also true that these things are not static.  If they adjust the strike zone like they have been talking about, that could change things too.   

This is true, however a shortstop will still be involved in over 600 outs per year. The difference between average and excellent will still be significant.

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