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12 minutes ago, Shelton said:

It does lack elite talent, but it probably has four top 100 guys. Perez, faedo, Burrows, and manning are all right there. And then there is a guy like paredes who I think is pushing the top 100. 

With 30 teams in MLB, having four guys in the top 100 is above average, I think. 

A minorleagueball writer put the Tigers at #5 in pitching prospects the other day.

There's a couple potential elite guys from that in Manning, Faedo, Perez. They're not what would be called elite prospects yet, but they're close enough that they could get there I think.

Not much elite talent on the hitting side for sure tho. Paredes, Cameron and to a lesser extent ceiling-wise Gerber can be good on both sides of the ball, but I'm not sure they have enough ceiling to be top 3 at their positions. Canderlario and Stewart have defensive issues that limit things. Rogers and Hill are elite defensively and improving offensively, but I don't think the bat projects yet.

Not that a bunch of guys that can be solid-regulars is a bad thing, if you have the pitching to go with it.

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10 minutes ago, irvink said:

Plus Candelerio. That's five solid inside. Agree that Paredes is one that will probably be just outside or at the back of the pre-season lists. I also think that Daz is in that conversation after his huge second half. Before the 16 season, he was around 75 on all the lists, then had a tough year and a half. Maybe one big half is not enough to get him back on the lists but again, probably pretty close. 

I wasn't exactly sure where Jeimer would end up in a new top 100. I feel like he won't be in there this offseason. But yeah, he should have been mentioned. 

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3 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

A minorleagueball writer put the Tigers at #5 in pitching prospects the other day.

There's a couple potential elite guys from that in Manning, Faedo, Perez. They're not what would be called elite prospects yet, but they're close enough that they could get there I think.

Not much elite talent on the hitting side for sure tho. Paredes, Cameron and to a lesser extent ceiling-wise Gerber can be good on both sides of the ball, but I'm not sure they have enough ceiling to be top 3 at their positions. Canderlario and Stewart have defensive issues that limit things. Rogers and Hill are elite defensively and improving offensively, but I don't think the bat projects yet.

Not that a bunch of guys that can be solid-regulars is a bad thing, if you have the pitching to go with it.

Yeah, where do you draw the line at an elite prospect? Top 10? Top 20?

Perez isn't that far away. Faedo and manning have a chance to get there. 

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Next spring's draft pick could be on his way to being elite. Where are, say, the #6 picks in the 2015 and 2016 drafts in the top 100 today? I know I could look it up but if anyone knows offhand.

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14 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I wasn't exactly sure where Jeimer would end up in a new top 100. I feel like he won't be in there this offseason. But yeah, he should have been mentioned. 

Yes, meant to qualify... Jeimer could well lose prospect status this Sept.

And Tigers are currently tied with the As for 4th worst team. Would love to see us hold onto that slot. The rotation is ugly enough that I think 4th pick is a very real possibility.

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1 hour ago, lordstanley said:

Next spring's draft pick could be on his way to being elite. Where are, say, the #6 picks in the 2015 and 2016 drafts in the top 100 today? I know I could look it up but if anyone knows offhand.

Kyle Tucker was picked 5th in 15 and he is a top 20 prospect, Tyler Jay was 6th and is struggling with injuries and Benintendi was 7th and was the top prospect in baseball coming into the season.

 

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I've read some comparisons of this upcoming draft to 2011, some comps there:

4 - Dylan Bundy

5 - Bubba Starling

6 - Anthony Rendon

7- Archie Bradley

8 - Lindor

9 - Javy Baez

 

Springer was 11, Jose Fernandez 14, Sonny Gray 18... Some other solid players taken elsewhere.  Starling is the only legit bust -- outside of number two pick Danny Hultzen. Bradley is not what you'd want out of a 7 pick, but looks like there will be some value attained, otherwise, those are all stars.

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All this draft talk reminded me of two things:

1 - it's pretty insane that in 05, we picked Maybin at 10 and then McCutchen was taken at 11. In 06, we pick Miller 6th and Kershaw is taken at 7. Would those two have been shipped off for Miggy? Kershaw was much more dominating in 07, reaching AA in his first full minor league year, out of high school. Crazy to think that if that deal was made, we probably regret it.

2 - From the JV era on, DD has had a record of our first round picks /top prospects to the bigs. That worked out fine for JV, but I can't help but wonder how it might have negatively effected Maybin, Miller, Porcello, Turner, Castellanos, Knebel, Ray -not drafted, I know. From 06 on, we were always in the mix for a playoff spot and bc of the stars/scrubs model, always in need of pushing our top prospects into the bigs, before they were probably ready. 

If this were still the DD era, I'd expect to see Perez, Faedo and Burrows appearing in the big leagues next year. I hope this will no longer be the case. 

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9 hours ago, Lei Pong said:

Hopefully...in 2020...we have an OF of Stewart in LF, Hill in CF, Daz in RF.  Nick is our 1B, Machado or Lugo at 2nd, Paredes or Machado at SS and Candelario at 3rd.   McCann/Rogers at C.

Do you believe that this lineup could reach the playoffs at some point?  I don't.

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5 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

 

9 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Do you believe that this lineup could reach the playoffs at some point?  I don't.

I do not expect the 2020 line-up to be be completely or even mostly comprised of players currently in the organization.  I think 2020 will look a lot different than we can now imagine.  That might be a good or bad thing.    

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6 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

Not my point though. Everyone ripped DD for the Fister trade and said he got taken. Ray was basically universally not valued on this board and by most Tiger fans. Same for Krol.

Because Ray was a so-so prospect and Fister was an established and productive starting pitcher.

Compared to what we needed in 2014, which was an effective pitcher in the starting rotation, it was not a good trade.

Not sure what your point is....DD traded Ray away pretty quickly for another so-so prospect.

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4 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Do you believe that this lineup could reach the playoffs at some point?  I don't.

Hopefully over the next 2-3 drafts with what should be top 5-10 picks the Tigers add an elite hitter or two who will anchor the lineup in the 2020s. You don't have to squint to hard to imagine a couple of the pitching prospects developing into high level staters. So between the draft and what they have in the system today there is a decent enough foundation to at least stay out of a 10-year death spiral. But to contend for championships they will need to make the most of these upcoming high draft picks and spend some money on the positions where the farm systems fails. I guess that is the great unknown. Will ownership spend when the time comes? 

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Just now, tiger337 said:

I do not expect the 2020 line-up to be be completely or even mostly comprised of players currently in the organization.  I think 2020 will look a lot different than we can now imagine.  That might be a good or bad thing

I agree 100%....I am truly wondering if people are expecting our current roster to blossom into a winning nucleus.  I don't see it....I see complimentary position players and Perez is said to have ace-level upside, but that can be said about most losing teams.

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3 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Do you believe that this lineup could reach the playoffs at some point?  I don't.

A lot could go wrong, but I think McCann/Rogers, Candelario, Paredes, Cameron are 4 guys that would be fine on what is otherwise a playoff team. MLB average or close enough to it.

Hill isn't there yet but could get there. Maybe Gerber too. I think Lugo has some adjustments to make yet. With Miggy at DH, I don't see a starting spot for Stewart where he is MLB average.

And they'll have time and $$$ to get other bats. I think they'll get another mid-level prospect or two for Ian/Nick/Iggy by then. But the development of the pitching will dictate the timing--these guys won't be the ones that carry us back to the playoffs, in all likelihood. They'll hopefully play some solid defense and fill out the lineup suitably.

I think what gets us to the playoffs the quickest is Hill and Cameron (and **** maybe Jacoby) providing elite OF defense for a young rotation, and we finally take some advantage of our ballpark with guys that aren't the classic power hitters we've had but play defense and either don't strike out or get on base.

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5 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I agree 100%....I am truly wondering if people are expecting our current roster to blossom into a winning nucleus.  I don't see it....I see complimentary position players and Perez is said to have ace-level upside, but that can be said about most losing teams.

in general, projecting lineup 3+ years into the future based only on players in the organization is a fools-errand. especially when we're assuming our 2 young MLB starters won't be around.

in such a context tho, i don't think we're completely barren. no guys that project to 4+ WAR players, but enough that there's a start.

Edit just to say that I think Hill, Cameron, Paredes, Candelario seem to have enough tools and skill to be MLB players. Lugo, Gerber, Rogers, Stewart are probably on the cusp of that.

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8 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

A lot could go wrong, but I think McCann/Rogers, Candelario, Paredes, Cameron are 4 guys that would be fine on what is otherwise a playoff team. MLB average or close enough to it.

Hill isn't there yet but could get there. Maybe Gerber too. I think Lugo has some adjustments to make yet. With Miggy at DH, I don't see a starting spot for Stewart where he is MLB average.

And they'll have time and $$$ to get other bats. I think they'll get another mid-level prospect or two for Ian/Nick/Iggy by then. But the development of the pitching will dictate the timing--these guys won't be the ones that carry us back to the playoffs, in all likelihood. They'll hopefully play some solid defense and fill out the lineup suitably.

I think what gets us to the playoffs the quickest is Hill and Cameron (and **** maybe Jacoby) providing elite OF defense for a young rotation, and we finally take some advantage of our ballpark with guys that aren't the classic power hitters we've had but play defense and either don't strike out or get on base.

This could work out but several of the non-sluggers (Candy, Paredes, Lugo) would have to make major strides defensively, and several of the fielders would have to elevate their hitting to plus level (Cameron, Jones, Hill).  It's a bit of a long shot with these guys.

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1 minute ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

in general, projecting lineup 3+ years into the future based only on players in the organization is a fools-errand. especially when we're assuming our 2 young MLB starters won't be around.

in such a context tho, i don't think we're completely barren. no guys that project to 4+ WAR players, but enough that there's a start.

Yeah, you've heard me say this a hundred times....I'm not trying to project the lineup.  I was reacting to Lei Pong's statement that he "hoped" to see that lineup in 2020....I just don't see why someone would hope for that lineup.

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2 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Elite defense in the OF doesn't get you there

This could work out but several of the non-sluggers (Candy, Paredes, Lugo) would have to make major strides defensively, and several of the fielders would have to elevate their hitting to plus level (Cameron, Jones, Hill).  It's a bit of a long shot with these guys.

I'm envisioning Candelario at 1B and Paredes at 3B (or maybe 2B). I think their defense at these positions will be more than fine. Their bats might then be a little light, but I'm only thinking MLB average overall or close.

Hill is a potential gold glover, so he doesn't have to hit great to fill out a team. Cameron probably isn't elite defensively (at least in CF) but he has come along enough in his hitting that I think his game plays.

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3 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Yeah, you've heard me say this a hundred times....I'm not trying to project the lineup.  I was reacting to Lei Pong's statement that he "hoped" to see that lineup in 2020....I just don't see why someone would hope for that lineup.

well i too am hoping they are all good enough in 2020 that most of them do make it.

semantics i suppose.

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11 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

well i too am hoping they are all good enough in 2020 that most of them do make it.

semantics i suppose.

I was sort of going to say the same thing. 

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15 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

This is short-sighted.  Looking at the bigger picture, the Tigers had to do what they had to do.  I was amazed that Avila was able to pare down the payroll so much, and began the reconstruction of the roster much sooner than I had anticipated.

What is amazing about what he did? I would have been "amazed" if he unloaded Cabrera, Victor or Zimmerman. Now, those would have been amazing accomplishments. Most of what I read says the Tigers were a little tardy in their house cleaning. 

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16 minutes ago, Chili Mac Davis said:

What is amazing about what he did? I would have been "amazed" if he unloaded Cabrera, Victor or Zimmerman. Now, those would have been amazing accomplishments. Most of what I read says the Tigers were a little tardy in their house cleaning. 

I thought he played the Verlander trade beautifully.  He very easily could have dumped him in July for a minimal return and used the payroll excuse.  Instead he trusted Verlander to bounce back and/or a team to get really desperate.  He knew he would clear waivers so he had till September to trade him.  So instead of getting a minimal return he got back the top prospect in our system and two more that may be at or near our top 10.  

He also did a good job of selling high on J-Will and Avila, getting one guy who should step in and contribute for the next 6 years and another that has a star ceiling, even if it is many years away.  

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4 hours ago, Shelton said:

I wasn't exactly sure where Jeimer would end up in a new top 100. I feel like he won't be in there this offseason. But yeah, he should have been mentioned. 

I went back and checked the BA top 100 minor league lists from 1990-2005. Not surprisingly, the Tigers rarely placed more than 1 or 2 guys a year on the top 100 lists. They had 3 on the 1998 list, two relief pitchers (Anderson and Cordero) and Juan Encarnacion, who at 15 was the highest any Tiger prospect was ranked during this period. So, despite all those high draft picks the Tiger never once had a top 10 prospect during this period.

The fact the system currently has at least 4 maybe more top 100 prospects already puts the franchise well ahead of where it was during the last rebuild. Of course the odds are against any of them turning into significant contributors, but at least the odds are better than the last time that the Tigers have already found a couple of answers. At this point I'm just looking for whatever little green shoots I can find. 

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41 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

 

This could work out but several of the non-sluggers (Candy, Paredes, Lugo) would have to make major strides defensively, and several of the fielders would have to elevate their hitting to plus level (Cameron, Jones, Hill).  It's a bit of a long shot with these guys.

Lugo's power potential is there, IMO.  30HR and 50 2B over the past two seasons with an OPS of about .780, still 22-years-old for a 2B or UI prospect.  If he ends up being something in the realm of Devon Travis, is that good enough?  Candelario is almost exactly a year older and perhaps shows a little more power potential.  A few more of those doubles turn into HR over the next few years, that's a nice guy to have in the lineup.

I know what you're saying, though.  The future lineup lacks a sure-fire Silver Slugger-type.

Can we squint and see Rivera as that type?  He's barely 20 and hasn't filled into that huge body yet, but I'm definitely paying attention.

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10 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I thought he played the Verlander trade beautifully.  He very easily could have dumped him in July for a minimal return and used the payroll excuse.  Instead he trusted Verlander to bounce back and/or a team to get really desperate.  He knew he would clear waivers so he had till September to trade him.  So instead of getting a minimal return he got back the top prospect in our system and two more that may be at or near our top 10.  

He also did a good job of selling high on J-Will and Avila, getting one guy who should step in and contribute for the next 6 years and another that has a star ceiling, even if it is many years away.  

But really, Randy. Was it "amazing"? The '69 Mets were amazing. Al ain't them.

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