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Kinsler will definitely be traded. There is no reason to keep him around if you have the ability to trade him. I guess he could still be here, but only if there are no teams showing any interest. I don't see him declining a trade this offseason. He has no interest in sticking around here for 2018. The return won't be great, but it will be something. 

Iglesias is a guy that could stick around. He's still young enough and good enough that they could keep him if a good trade is not offered. He's a guy you could sign to an extension and can solidify SS for a number of years after this. But if a good trade is out there, it would be a good idea to take it. 

Castellanos is similar to Iglesias in that regard. I think it will be harder to find a good deal for him, but he's got two years left so there is still a chance he can hit enough that you would want to extend him. But he needs to find a position and he needs to hit. 

At the very least, the farm system is now the best it has been in as long as I can remember. The result of that hopefully is a more balanced major league team instead of stars and scrubs. So when they do decide to add some free agents, they could build a winner without necessarily having to spend big on star type players. 

We will know how well that works in a few years. 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

His definition of surplus differs from mine.

I don't think we have a surplus, but I suppose if for some reason we are dealing for a player, we are probably dealing pitching for him before we are trading position player prospects for him.

Best I got.

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Just now, Nastradamus said:

I don't think we have a surplus, but I suppose if for some reason we are dealing for a player, we are probably dealing pitching for him before we are trading position player prospects for him.

Best I got.

That's the only logical way to explain "surplus pitching" at this point.

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Just now, Shelton said:

Kinsler will definitely be traded. There is no reason to keep him around if you have the ability to trade him. I guess he could still be here, but only if there are no teams showing any interest. I don't see him declining a trade this offseason. He has no interest in sticking around here for 2018. The return won't be great, but it will be something. 

Iglesias is a guy that could stick around. He's still young enough and good enough that they could keep him if a good trade is not offered. He's a guy you could sign to an extension and can solidify SS for a number of years after this. But if a good trade is out there, it would be a good idea to take it. 

Castellanos is similar to Iglesias in that regard. I think it will be harder to find a good deal for him, but he's got two years left so there is still a chance he can hit enough that you would want to extend him. But he needs to find a position and he needs to hit. 

 

Yup, Kinsler is our Maybin this year. Probably slightly better in terms of his value(better but older). We probably get two Alcantaras for him lol. Maybe Grayson Long

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3 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Not my point though. Everyone ripped DD for the Fister trade and said he got taken. Ray was basically universally not valued on this board and by most Tiger fans. Same for Krol.

I may be one of the few that was fine with the fister trade. 

Although I wasn't incredibly high on Ray. He seemed like a fine prospect and I had faith that DD knew enough about him that he could be good. That said, when we were able to flip him for Greene, who seemed more advanced and ready to contribute, I was happy to move on from Ray. 

I think DD may have been a bit emotional in that deal. It seems like he was pissed about the reaction to getting Ray and wanted to move on and try to salvage that deal. 

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3 minutes ago, Casimir said:

That's the only logical way to explain "surplus pitching" at this point.

Yup. I'm happy with how our young pitching stands, but it is no surplus

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1 minute ago, Shelton said:

I may be one of the few that was fine with the fister trade. 

Although I wasn't incredibly high on Ray. He seemed like a fine prospect and I had faith that DD knew enough about him that he could be good. That said, when we were able to flip him for Greene, who seemed more advanced and ready to contribute, I was happy to move on from Ray. 

I think DD may have been a bit emotional in that deal. It seems like he was pissed about the reaction to getting Ray and wanted to move on and try to salvage that deal. 

yup, this is how I felt about both deals, but I totally bought into GReene all the way. I thought he was going to be our new Fister

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7 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I may be one of the few that was fine with the fister trade. 

Although I wasn't incredibly high on Ray. He seemed like a fine prospect and I had faith that DD knew enough about him that he could be good. That said, when we were able to flip him for Greene, who seemed more advanced and ready to contribute, I was happy to move on from Ray. 

I think DD may have been a bit emotional in that deal. It seems like he was pissed about the reaction to getting Ray and wanted to move on and try to salvage that deal. 

Yeah, after initial shock wore off, felt the same way about the Fister deal.

And I totally agree that dealing Ray was a rare, emotional/impulse deal by DD. Not only did we send him to ARZ, they also got Lebya, who is a pretty solid prospect - and was at least more highly regarded than Lugo this summer. Oh, and we also passed on the opportunity of simply keeping Gregorious - which would not have been as good as holding onto our own players but a good SS who can hit and hit with pop is much more valuable than Greene. Ouch.

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I think DD had an emotional side to him for sure. The Max press release thing was so odd. Everyone blames ilitch for max getting away, but I think that was more on DD. I wouldn't be surprised if DD's handling of Max was a big part in his firing. 

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22 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I think DD had an emotional side to him for sure. The Max press release thing was so odd. Everyone blames ilitch for max getting away, but I think that was more on DD. I wouldn't be surprised if DD's handling of Max was a big part in his firing. 

yeah that press release was the most un-Dombrowski thing ever.  

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49 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I may be one of the few that was fine with the fister trade. 

Although I wasn't incredibly high on Ray. He seemed like a fine prospect and I had faith that DD knew enough about him that he could be good. That said, when we were able to flip him for Greene, who seemed more advanced and ready to contribute, I was happy to move on from Ray. 

I think DD may have been a bit emotional in that deal. It seems like he was pissed about the reaction to getting Ray and wanted to move on and try to salvage that deal. 

If they had resigned Scherzer, which they could have done, I doubt Ray would be moved.  Didn't they need to fill in his SP slot so they went with Greene.

I think trading Ray was one of the few times DD succumbed to public pressure.

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35 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I think DD had an emotional side to him for sure. The Max press release thing was so odd. Everyone blames ilitch for max getting away, but I think that was more on DD. I wouldn't be surprised if DD's handling of Max was a big part in his firing. 

Interesting take.  I saw it as the opposite.... never thought about it as being DD's bungling.  

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1 hour ago, Nastradamus said:

Not my point though. Everyone ripped DD for the Fister trade and said he got taken. Ray was basically universally not valued on this board and by most Tiger fans. Same for Krol.

Exactly.  It is tempting to revive that thread and dig up some gems from it.

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2 hours ago, Oblong said:

This rebuild has the potential to be really catastrophic for ticket sales.  For reference sake I'm only going back 20 years because prior to that I don't think partial plans were very popular or even a big deal for the team.

Think back to the 'bad' eras in that time.

You had the lure of Tiger Stadium closing/a new stadium from 98-02.  People got tickets at Tiger Stadium both to make sure they were there for the final games and to ensure tickets to Comerica Park.  THe lure of Comerica Park probably go them through 2002.  In August 2003 MLB announced Comerica Park would get the 2005 ASG.  That was a huge deal for ticket sales as season ticket holders were guaranteed a ticket to the game and people who bought tickets in 2004 were also promised tickets.  That leads us to the changes and signings after the 2005 season and from there we get to where we are now.

In my seating area as recently as 2013 we had 28 regulars in front of me, besides me, and behind us.  That's down to 8.  

They're going to be really hurting for partial ticket plans this year.  As for full season tickets and companies..  my cousin's company is a major sponsor and he told me their tickets are going unused.  Clients don't want them.

 

I also observe that the ticket prices are MUCH higher than at the beginning of this last run in 2006.  Do ticket prices ever go down in this business?

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24 minutes ago, Oblong said:

If they had resigned Scherzer, which they could have done, I doubt Ray would be moved.  Didn't they need to fill in his SP slot so they went with Greene.

I think trading Ray was one of the few times DD succumbed to public pressure.

The max contract was a pretty big domino I think. If max had been extended, we probably don't trade for price. Price was a guy we could trade for because he effectively would replace max for a year in 2015. That 2014 rotation had Verlander and Sanchez and max and Rick and smyly, with ray in Toledo. Then we flipped smyly for price, with price taking the max role. If we had kept smyly and max was signed, then 2015 is Verlander Sanchez max smyly and Rick. We probably still trade Rick for cespedes. But we probably don't trade ray because smyly is still around, and a guy like Simon as fifth starter works. But without smyly, you are looking at Ray in the rotation. That was hard to justify, so we went after Greene.

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2 minutes ago, diaspora04 said:

I also observe that the ticket prices are MUCH higher than at the beginning of this last run in 2006.  Do ticket prices ever go down in this business?

Good point. 

I think the cheap seats are reduced from time to time to try to get more people to buy in to an inexpensive partial plan. Just get as many people in the door to buy beer. It doesn't matter if they all sit in the outfield and upper deck. 

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1 hour ago, Shelton said:

Kinsler will definitely be traded. There is no reason to keep him around if you have the ability to trade him. I guess he could still be here, but only if there are no teams showing any interest. I don't see him declining a trade this offseason. He has no interest in sticking around here for 2018. The return won't be great, but it will be something. 

Iglesias is a guy that could stick around. He's still young enough and good enough that they could keep him if a good trade is not offered. He's a guy you could sign to an extension and can solidify SS for a number of years after this. But if a good trade is out there, it would be a good idea to take it. 

Castellanos is similar to Iglesias in that regard. I think it will be harder to find a good deal for him, but he's got two years left so there is still a chance he can hit enough that you would want to extend him. But he needs to find a position and he needs to hit. 

At the very least, the farm system is now the best it has been in as long as I can remember. The result of that hopefully is a more balanced major league team instead of stars and scrubs. So when they do decide to add some free agents, they could build a winner without necessarily having to spend big on star type players. 

We will know how well that works in a few years. 

Does Kinsler have value as a mentor / clubhouse leader type with so many veterans gone?  Probably not at that price, I suppose.

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The only way that the Tigers don't trade Kinsler is if they hate what they are being offered and think he can rebound some this coming season and have more value in July. Someone else mentioned it being the equivalent of signing a veteran FA in hopes of flipping him for value at the deadline. That is a good analogy. 

Not exercising the option does not seem like an option at all. Worst case, if they feel they have to move him before the season - to appease Ian bc he does not want to play for a potential 100 loss team - they could offer to eat 5 million on his deal. At 7 mil + a less than stellar prospect - Kinsler would be appealing to plenty of teams, if only as a bench/part-time guy with considerable upside. Even at 12 mil, I think betting on Kinsler coming back with a 3.5-4 win season is a pretty good one. 

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1 hour ago, Shelton said:

Kinsler will definitely be traded. There is no reason to keep him around if you have the ability to trade him. I guess he could still be here, but only if there are no teams showing any interest. I don't see him declining a trade this offseason. He has no interest in sticking around here for 2018. The return won't be great, but it will be something. 

Iglesias is a guy that could stick around. He's still young enough and good enough that they could keep him if a good trade is not offered. He's a guy you could sign to an extension and can solidify SS for a number of years after this. But if a good trade is out there, it would be a good idea to take it. 

Castellanos is similar to Iglesias in that regard. I think it will be harder to find a good deal for him, but he's got two years left so there is still a chance he can hit enough that you would want to extend him. But he needs to find a position and he needs to hit. 

At the very least, the farm system is now the best it has been in as long as I can remember. The result of that hopefully is a more balanced major league team instead of stars and scrubs. So when they do decide to add some free agents, they could build a winner without necessarily having to spend big on star type players. 

We will know how well that works in a few years. 

The farm system is definitely better than it has been. Still lacks elite talent. But it's better. It's also much better than it was in the mid 90s when the last rebuild commenced. That is something that works against the narrative that the Tigers are about to enter another decade-plus period of total irrelevance. The second WC also provides ownership incentive for remaining somewhat competitive, because mediocrity in some years will equal contention and contention should equal more fans in seats. 

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2 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

The farm system is definitely better than it has been. Still lacks elite talent. But it's better. It's also much better than it was in the mid 90s when the last rebuild commenced. That is something that works against the narrative that the Tigers are about to enter another decade-plus period of total irrelevance. The second WC also provides ownership incentive for remaining somewhat competitive, because mediocrity in some years will equal contention and contention should equal more fans in seats. 

It does lack elite talent, but it probably has four top 100 guys. Perez, faedo, Burrows, and manning are all right there. And then there is a guy like paredes who I think is pushing the top 100. 

With 30 teams in MLB, having four guys in the top 100 is above average, I think. 

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10 minutes ago, Shelton said:

It does lack elite talent, but it probably has four top 100 guys. Perez, faedo, Burrows, and manning are all right there. And then there is a guy like paredes who I think is pushing the top 100. 

With 30 teams in MLB, having four guys in the top 100 is above average, I think. 

Candelrino?

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12 minutes ago, Shelton said:

It does lack elite talent, but it probably has four top 100 guys. Perez, faedo, Burrows, and manning are all right there. And then there is a guy like paredes who I think is pushing the top 100. 

With 30 teams in MLB, having four guys in the top 100 is above average, I think. 

Plus Candelerio. That's five solid inside. Agree that Paredes is one that will probably be just outside or at the back of the pre-season lists. I also think that Daz is in that conversation after his huge second half. Before the 16 season, he was around 75 on all the lists, then had a tough year and a half. Maybe one big half is not enough to get him back on the lists but again, probably pretty close. 

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