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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

The good old days when this was the Tigers braintrust.  I’m the guy in the middle, trying to talk them out of trading for Alfredo Simon.  

8CE5B730-1433-49FA-8BCC-8CA8D9CBE910.jpeg

Wait a minute.  You’re not really Jack Black?

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19 hours ago, sabretooth said:

... the major reason to trade him (Fulmer) is to save on his arbitration $$ in 2019/2020 and acquire cheaper young talent...

That's not the reason to trade Fulmer... AT ALL.

His salary cost has absolutely no bearing on trading him or not. None whatsoever.

There is two reasons (I was going to say one reason only) for trading Fulmer: The MAIN reason for trading Fulmer is the expected return. He's young, cost controlled, and in demand (if he proves healthy...). We should expect 3 to 4 premium prospects (some further away than others, and therefore more risky) that, hopefully, in aggregate, will return more WAR to this team than will Fulmer alone. That doesn't always work (Cabrera versus Miller/ Maybin/ etal), but it's the chance we have to take.

Based on the secondary reason: our window of competitiveness won't open again until this team is remade by an influx of young talent that rebuilds the competitive base, or core, this team needs to again be within reach of the playoffs. The vast majority of that influx will hit MLB starting from last year (Candelario), through the next 2/3 years. Therefore, future WAR (hopefully) from 3-4 high-level players in a Fulmer trade, is more valuable than the WAR Fulmer would provide over these next 2-3 years.

If this is AA's thinking, I agree with it 100%. He just has to get this trade right.

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15 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

That's not the reason to trade Fulmer... AT ALL.

His salary cost has absolutely no bearing on trading him or not. None whatsoever.

There is two reasons (I was going to say one reason only) for trading Fulmer: The MAIN reason for trading Fulmer is the expected return. He's young, cost controlled, and in demand (if he proves healthy...). We should expect 3 to 4 premium prospects (some further away than others, and therefore more risky) that, hopefully, in aggregate, will return more WAR to this team than will Fulmer alone. That doesn't always work (Cabrera versus Miller/ Maybin/ etal), but it's the chance we have to take.

Based on the secondary reason: our window of competitiveness won't open again until this team is remade by an influx of young talent that rebuilds the competitive base, or core, this team needs to again be within reach of the playoffs. The vast majority of that influx will hit MLB starting from last year (Candelario), through the next 2/3 years. Therefore, future WAR (hopefully) from 3-4 high-level players in a Fulmer trade, is more valuable than the WAR Fulmer would provide over these next 2-3 years.

If this is AA's thinking, I agree with it 100%. He just has to get this trade right.

I will add that if he doesn't get the trade right, he shouldn't make it.  Fulmer is going to have trade value for a while, so there is no need to rush anything.  

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January 6, 2018 Projection (subject to change)

Starting Pitchers
Matthew Boyd
Mike Fiers
Michael Fulmer
Daniel Norris
Jordan Zimmermann

Relievers
Shane Greene
Blaine Hardy
Jairo Labourt
Warwick Saupold
Daniel Stumpf
Drew VerHagen
Alex Wilson

Catchers
Grayson Greiner
John Hicks (DH/1B mostly)
James McCann

Infielders
Miguel Cabrera
Jeimer Candelario
Jose Igelsias
Dixon Machado
Ronny Rodriguez

Outfielders
Nick Castellanos
Mike Gerber
Mikie Mahtook
Leonys Martin
Victor Reyes
 

I think the roster is at 39 right now leaving one spot open for Ronny Rodriguez who will fill the Andrew Romine role as  7-position utility guy.   I think Gerber makes it because they  will need a left-handed bat that can play all three outfield positions who might be a little better than Reyes.   Any game with a lead and they'll be using defensive replacements in the late innings for Nick so they probably need that extra OF.    I am not expecting Victor to play again.  I don't expect them to drop anyone from the current roster for Pete Kozma, Jim Adduci, Derek Norris or Jason Krizan . 

Machado, 2b
Mahtook, lf
Cabrera, 1b/dh
Castellanos, rf
Candelario, 3b
McCann, c
Hicks, dh/1b
Martin, cf
Iglesias, ss

yuck

 

 

    
 


 

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

I will add that if he doesn't get the trade right, he shouldn't make it.  Fulmer is going to have trade value for a while, so there is no need to rush anything.  

I also think it's virtually impossible to imagine getting any number of prospects back that actually end up generating any more career WAR than Fulmer projects to now. Just not gonna happen. You are talking about needing to get multiple guys back that look like Torres and even if you did, still probably none of them would end up turning into an all-star. The best you are going to do is get one very near MLB player who has already proven he as at low chance of failure (e.g., a Torres), and Torres for Fulmer is basically an even swap, not a team building move. Maybe it's still a good move you do it because you want a position player instead of a pitcher, but it's not going to rebuild the base of your team. You can't trade top players for prospects if you want the total odds of hitting the lottery on one to net out better that what you are giving up. Top players are just too rare. I wouldn't a move young #1 starter or all-star player for prospects unless I was being forced to dump salary. I think you end up looking more like the team that traded Cabrera far more often than not. Sale brought back Moncada - almost the consensus best player not already in the majors. He's   had a pretty nice start with the Sox but is already 23 going into '18 and while he looks like a fine player - still shows no particular sign of being *more* valuable than Sale was.

OTOH - once I looked up Fulmer's history, I did become more aware that he has been hurt a fair amount in his career already. So I guess that would remain my reservation about him. If you want to argue that Fulmer is damaged goods, I don't think I agree but I would accept it as the more reasonable argument. But I think if you are going to successfully build the base of a team your are going to have to it by drafting your your own prospects - no-one is going to make a trade with you for one player that is going to leave you with anything other than long odds of being the basis for new roster.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I also think it's virtually impossible to imagine getting any number of prospects back that actually end up generating any more career WAR than Fulmer projects to now. Just not gonna happen...

Virtually impossible? Just not going to happen?

Seems overly pessimistic to me.

Actually... I'm looking for a Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee & Brandon Phillips trade for Fulmer. Or a Curt Granderson (plus Edwin Jackson) for Austin Jackson, Scherzer, Coke & Schlereth return.

Again, it's not impossible at all. It's not easy. I'm not saying that. No guarantees on prospects making it. AA has to make the right trade for the right prospects in that regard. And we won't know how any trade turns out for several years. I also agree with Lee that there's no rush. If we get the offer we want right now, great, make the trade. If we don't, and feel we'll get it at the deadline or next off season, wait.

But, more importantly in my mind, and why we want FUTURE WAR and not Fulmer's right now WAR: any WAR Fulmer gets for us this year, and for the next (probably) two, is wasted on crappy teams. Future WAR is MORE valuable than Fulmer's right now WAR. It's why you make a Fulmer trade IF THE RIGHT DEAL comes along. Again... I'm looking at the Colon for Sizemore/ Lee/ Phillips trade, probably with wishful thinking... but still.

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13 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

That's not the reason to trade Fulmer... AT ALL.

His salary cost has absolutely no bearing on trading him or not. None whatsoever.

There is two reasons (I was going to say one reason only) for trading Fulmer: The MAIN reason for trading Fulmer is the expected return. He's young, cost controlled, and in demand (if he proves healthy...). We should expect 3 to 4 premium prospects (some further away than others, and therefore more risky) that, hopefully, in aggregate, will return more WAR to this team than will Fulmer alone. That doesn't always work (Cabrera versus Miller/ Maybin/ etal), but it's the chance we have to take.

Based on the secondary reason: our window of competitiveness won't open again until this team is remade by an influx of young talent that rebuilds the competitive base, or core, this team needs to again be within reach of the playoffs. The vast majority of that influx will hit MLB starting from last year (Candelario), through the next 2/3 years. Therefore, future WAR (hopefully) from 3-4 high-level players in a Fulmer trade, is more valuable than the WAR Fulmer would provide over these next 2-3 years.

If this is AA's thinking, I agree with it 100%. He just has to get this trade right.

If AA is able to get three or four prospects who are likely to provide Major League production in the next two to three years that would exceed the major league production that Fulmer would likely provide the next two to three years then yes, absolutely, AA would be obliged to make that trade.

I believe you're the first person to suggest that a trade of that caliber could be made.  What I have read here so far is based on the premise that we would get 1 really good positional prospect who is practically Major League ready (Torryes was the peak hope but a few folks here feel that the Yanks wouldn't trade him for Fuller, and I don't disagree) and maybe one other guy who isnt necessarily a premium prospect.

Getting one near-ML guy less than Torryes and another lesser prospect does not interest me.  Your scenario OTOH would definitely interest me.

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15 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I also think it's virtually impossible to imagine getting any number of prospects back that actually end up generating any more career WAR than Fulmer projects to now. Just not gonna happen. You are talking about needing to get multiple guys back that look like Torres and even if you did, still probably none of them would end up turning into an all-star. The best you are going to do is get one very near MLB player who has already proven he as at low chance of failure (e.g., a Torres), and Torres for Fulmer is basically an even swap, not a team building move. Maybe it's still a good move you do it because you want a position player instead of a pitcher, but it's not going to rebuild the base of your team. You can't trade top players for prospects if you want the total odds of hitting the lottery on one to net out better that what you are giving up. Top players are just too rare. I wouldn't a move young #1 starter or all-star player for prospects unless I was being forced to dump salary. I think you end up looking more like the team that traded Cabrera far more often than not. Sale brought back Moncada - almost the consensus best player not already in the majors. He's   had a pretty nice start with the Sox but is already 23 going into '18 and while he looks like a fine player - still shows no particular sign of being *more* valuable than Sale was.

 

the Tigers don't control Fulmer for his career; they control him for 5 years. If he is averages 6 WAR over the next five years that's 30 WAR. So if the Yankees offer Frazier, Estrada, Sheffield and Adams, what WAR would the Tigers get from the 24 years of control from those 4 guys? If they all average 1 WAR per season, that's 24 WAR; 2 WAR per season, it is 48 WAR; 2.5 WAR, and it is 60 WAR; and so on.

trading Fulmer represents the best opportunity to make them better; it all depends on AA making the right trade, at the right time, for the right players - not an easy task at all

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17 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

January 6, 2018 Projection (subject to change)

Starting Pitchers
Matthew Boyd
Mike Fiers
Michael Fulmer
Daniel Norris
Jordan Zimmermann

Relievers
Shane Greene
Blaine Hardy
Jairo Labourt
Warwick Saupold
Daniel Stumpf
Drew VerHagen
Alex Wilson

Catchers
Grayson Greiner
John Hicks (DH/1B mostly)
James McCann

Infielders
Miguel Cabrera
Jeimer Candelario
Jose Igelsias
Dixon Machado
Ronny Rodriguez

Outfielders
Nick Castellanos
Mike Gerber
Mikie Mahtook
Leonys Martin
Victor Reyes

If Victor is alive, he will go North for opening day.

If they carry a third C, it would be Derek Norris, not GG.

I think AA picks up another vet SP on a 1-year deal, and Daniel Norris starts at Toledo.

Gerber will not make the opening day roster. if they keep him in the minors until late April, they get a whole extra year of control.

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1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

the Tigers don't control Fulmer for his career; they control him for 5 years. If he is averages 6 WAR over the next five years that's 30 WAR. So if the Yankees offer Frazier, Estrada, Sheffield and Adams, what WAR would the Tigers get from the 24 years of control from those 4 guys? If they all average 1 WAR per season, that's 24 WAR; 2 WAR per season, it is 48 WAR; 2.5 WAR, and it is 60 WAR; and so on.

trading Fulmer represents the best opportunity to make them better; it all depends on AA making the right trade, at the right time, for the right players - not an easy task at all

But you don't need to trade a potential all-star to find 1 WAR per season players. There is underlying fallacy in comparing WAR that way. For the same total WAR, few high WAR players are more valuable to a front office than many low WAR players because low WAR players are easy to obtain.

Ultimately -  to be a winner, you need players that are differentially better that the other team position by position.  You may not need "Stars and Scrubs" to the degree practiced by Dombrowski - but you still need at least half a roster full of better than average major leaguers to win anything.  A mass of 1-2 WAR players won't get you there no matter how many WAR they may total across the organization.

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On 1/6/2018 at 6:45 PM, Motor City Sonics said:

January 6, 2018 Projection (subject to change). 

Machado, 2b
Mahtook, lf
Cabrera, 1b/dh
Castellanos, rf
Candelario, 3b
McCann, c
Hicks, dh/1b
Reyes ipo Martin, cf
Iglesias, ss

yuck

Only a "yuck" if you're the opposing manager trying to contain that energetic bundle of grittiness.  

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12 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

Only a "yuck" if you're the opposing manager trying to contain that energetic bundle of grittiness.  

LOL.  

You know, if Mahtook, Nick C and James McCann put together full and consistent seasons and Miggy has even a 75% bounce back the lineup could be better than last year.     That's a lot of ifs.       I think Mahtook could be a really good player if he keeps it together.  Part of last year he was great.    Why knows 

I think they would bring up GG  because I am not expecting them to drop too many people to make room for Derek Norris or many others. And he's behind Jake Rogers on the prospect depth chart now, so I don't think they are expecting him to be a starter.   I really do expect Ronny Rodriguez to be with this team over Alcantara or Kozma, 

If Gerber doesn't come up on Opening Day, he'll be up as soon as he can be.    I don't really think Victor Reyes stays.  A lot of that depends on if JaCoby gets it.   He could be fantastic if it ever clicks.     I hate the Martin signing.    Another Anthony Gose.   

 

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On 1/6/2018 at 2:25 PM, Casimir said:

Do you think the issue with Avila is identifying talent or having adequate development of talent?  Or both?  Or something else/different?

Hate to beat a dead horse but I think AA's biggest problem was that he couldn't identify the right combination of manager and Bullpen talent.  I realize this is a minority opinion but I think the Tigers could have added 5 to 10 wins a year in 2015 - 17 simply by getting the manager and Bullpen right....each was worth about half of that differential. 

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On 1/7/2018 at 1:30 PM, Gehringer_2 said:

But you don't need to trade a potential all-star to find 1 WAR per season players. There is underlying fallacy in comparing WAR that way. For the same total WAR, few high WAR players are more valuable to a front office than many low WAR players because low WAR players are easy to obtain.

Ultimately -  to be a winner, you need players that are differentially better that the other team position by position.  You may not need "Stars and Scrubs" to the degree practiced by Dombrowski - but you still need at least half a roster full of better than average major leaguers to win anything.  A mass of 1-2 WAR players won't get you there no matter how many WAR they may total across the organization.

Yep.

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