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Nick get's a lot of deserved static for his defensive shortcomings...I'm more concerned by the backslide his offense has taken this year than his defense.  His bat has to carry him...losing about 75 pts off his OPS is an issue.  I can live a bit easier with a statue in LF if it carries an .850 or so OPS.  Have no use for a statue that provides a sub 800 OPS

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1 hour ago, mickeyb105 said:

Putting Nick in RF would be a complete clownshow, but hey--if Nero can enjoy watching Rome burn then we should be able to watch Nick butcher the daylights out of RF.  

 

Obviously the more rational move is to use a trade to turn his value as a hitter in to a player that would be a better fit. I think the only reason that might not be the end result would be if Upton walks and they can't find a way to come up with 2 corners OF so they decide to try Nick again. The optimum course is Upton stays, they find a RF, they trade Nick (possibly in the deal for a RF) - Candelario becomes the new 3b - but as has been covered, that hinges on what Upton does.

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1 hour ago, pyrotigers said:

 

Cheap option:

C: McCann/Hicks

1B: Cabrera

2B: Kinsler

3B: Castellanos

SS: Machado (Iglesias traded for savings)

LF: Upton

CF: Mahtook

RF: Jones/Candelario/Stewart

DH: Martinez

Bench: Romine, one of the above listed RFs, whoever isn't starting of McCann/Hicks, Minor League Infielder

SP: Verlander, Fulmer, Norris, Boyd, Zimmermann

RP: Greene, Jimenez, Rondon, A. Wilson, Saupold, two minor leaguers/low cost free agents

I'll go 70-75 wins for this

I like this option better, but it doesn't slash cost enough IMO.

C:  McCann/Hicks or Holaday

1B Cabrera or Nick

2B Jones 

SS Machado

3B Candelario/Nick

LF  Stewart/Gerber

CF  Mahtook

RF  Pressley/Gerber/Deuce

DH  Nick/Cabrera/Stewart

Bench:  Ficociello, Gerber or Deuce, Pressley, Hicks

SP: Fulmer, JZ, Sanchez, Boyd, Norris/Farmer/Jaye

BP:  Greene, Norris or Stumpf, Jimenez, A. Wilson, Garcia or Labourt, Saupold.

 

Let's get on with it.   This is assuming we can't trade Nick for an acceptable return, Upton opts out for a non-rebuilding situation and that both Zimmerman and Cabrera's contracts are unmovable.  Get a return for Verlander, ask Victor to stay at home, trade Kinsler and Iglesias.  We don't need to pay a utility guy the $1.5+ Romine will get next year.  Maybe even see what the market is for Norris, although I like the idea of him as a shut-down lefty out of the pen.

Stock up with some OF talent in trades, and eat money if you have to.  Give AB and MLB roles to some of the new guys to see what we have.  Who cares about the record next year, just fill up the system with talent and run the team like you are in a small market--at least for a season or two.  Paying a lot of money to older and players that will not improve just tread water makes no sense.  If AA can put a half-dozen to eight players into the organization's top 25 then we're really getting somewhere.

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7 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

 I think the only reason that might not be the end result would be if Upton walks and they can't find a way to come up with 2 corners OF so they decide to try Nick again.

Stewart, Gerber, Deuce and Pressley are not glamour names but they sure sound a lot better and cheaper than hoping Upton stays or watching Nick flail around in the OF.

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10 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

I like this option better, but it doesn't slash cost enough IMO.

C:  McCann/Hicks or Holaday

1B Cabrera or Nick

2B Jones 

SS Machado

3B Candelario/Nick

LF  Stewart/Gerber

CF  Mahtook

RF  Pressley/Gerber/Deuce

DH  Nick/Cabrera/Stewart

Bench:  Ficociello, Gerber or Deuce, Pressley, Hicks

SP: Fulmer, JZ, Sanchez, Boyd, Norris/Farmer/Jaye

BP:  Greene, Norris or Stumpf, Jimenez, A. Wilson, Garcia or Labourt, Saupold.

 

who would pay money to watch that hot mess? awful

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7 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

Stewart, Gerber, Deuce and Pressley are not glamour names but they sure sound a lot better and cheaper than hoping Upton stays or watching Nick flail around in the OF.

Yes, even if none of the lower level guys make it - and remember we started a couple years ago with Fields, Collins and Moya as the AAA outfield with the great confidence at least one would make it - none did. But we could probably survive a rebuilding year with Presely, Aducci Jones and and Romine in one corner. Sadly, I don't think the return on trading Nick is going to be much to be excited about unless he starts turning that hard hit ball # into more safeties the rest of the way.

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32 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

who would pay money to watch that hot mess? awful

The gate will be bad for two or three years for sure. 

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6 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

just waiting on Victor to go at some point early (better) or late in 2018

Why wouldn't they just keep Candelario in AAA?  It seems that it'd be best to keep Castellanos and Candelario playing full time.

Honestly, I think it's a much more likely scenario that MartinezV retires or is retired than Castellanos is on the pine.

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9 hours ago, mickeyb105 said:

I like this option better, but it doesn't slash cost enough IMO.

C:  McCann/Hicks or Holaday

1B Cabrera or Nick

2B Jones 

SS Machado

3B Candelario/Nick

LF  Stewart/Gerber

CF  Mahtook

RF  Pressley/Gerber/Deuce

DH  Nick/Cabrera/Stewart

Bench:  Ficociello, Gerber or Deuce, Pressley, Hicks

SP: Fulmer, JZ, Sanchez, Boyd, Norris/Farmer/Jaye

BP:  Greene, Norris or Stumpf, Jimenez, A. Wilson, Garcia or Labourt, Saupold.

 

Let's get on with it.   This is assuming we can't trade Nick for an acceptable return, Upton opts out for a non-rebuilding situation and that both Zimmerman and Cabrera's contracts are unmovable.  Get a return for Verlander, ask Victor to stay at home, trade Kinsler and Iglesias.  We don't need to pay a utility guy the $1.5+ Romine will get next year.  Maybe even see what the market is for Norris, although I like the idea of him as a shut-down lefty out of the pen.

Stock up with some OF talent in trades, and eat money if you have to.  Give AB and MLB roles to some of the new guys to see what we have.  Who cares about the record next year, just fill up the system with talent and run the team like you are in a small market--at least for a season or two.  Paying a lot of money to older and players that will not improve just tread water makes no sense.  If AA can put a half-dozen to eight players into the organization's top 25 then we're really getting somewhere.

I don't really disagree that if they're not going to spend they might as well ditch everyone, I'm just trying to be realistic with what I think the team will actually do. I would prefer that if the team is going to suck they just go all in with sucking and get some young guys experience, but it's hard for me to believe they'd actually ditch relatively cheap veterans who let them pretend they're contending.

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2 hours ago, pyrotigers said:

I don't really disagree that if they're not going to spend they might as well ditch everyone, I'm just trying to be realistic with what I think the team will actually do. I would prefer that if the team is going to suck they just go all in with sucking and get some young guys experience, but it's hard for me to believe they'd actually ditch relatively cheap veterans who let them pretend they're contending.

QFT. 

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The more that Upton hits, the more likely it is that he walks.  The more I look at that free agent OF list, the more it looks like Adduci might have a legitimate shot at sticking around for next season.  And as much as I think its likely to be a failed experiment (again), it makes trying Castellanos out in the OF again a bit more reasonable.

Quote

Outfielders
Dustin Ackley
Nori Aoki
Jose Bautista *
Carlos Beltran
Michael Brantley *
Jay Bruce
Melky Cabrera
Lorenzo Cain
Josh Collmenter
Carl Crawford
Coco Crisp
Rajai Davis
Jarrod Dyson
Andre Ethier *
Craig Gentry
Carlos Gomez
Carlos Gonzalez
Curtis Granderson
Franklin Gutierrez
Matt Holliday
Austin Jackson
Jon Jay
Desmond Jennings
Hyun-Soo Kim
J.D. Martinez
Cameron Maybin
Andrew McCutchen *
Daniel Nava
Colby Rasmus
Ben Revere
Michael Saunders *
Seth Smith
Ichiro Suzuki
Justin Upton *
Melvin Upton
Jayson Werth
Chris B. Young

He can't hit for anything, and Mahtook in CF might work out anyway, but I think it'd be fun to see Dyson running around in CF for a season.  Just to have some speed out there, along with another speedy OF in Mahtook.  If the Tigers do go the FA route for an OF, it'd likely be something cheap like that.

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My estimate, injecting some youth and speed with no FA spending except Alex.  

 

1VrfbVf.jpg

 

 

 

Edited by LooseGoose
Couple of corrections...

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Interesting, though I'm not worried about the payroll for next year.  Seems like we'll be under the luxury tax organically.  And I really think it's 50/50 with Upton.  If he can finish with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI, I think the odds increase and those numbers seem very likely.  When Upton's current contract expires, he'll be 34, which is a lousy age to negotiate another.  If he opts out and get another 5-6 year deal, it would take him to 35/36.  Any contracts after that will be gravy for him.

It's still not clear to me what the plan is.  They say they want to get younger and more athletic.  Cheaper, too?  This team has not demonstrated that they can draft and develop talent.  It's not even clear if they can trade for it.  With a teardown, and without the elder Ilitch willing to open his checkbook when necessary, are we on the verge of another 1988-2005 drought?  I hope not--I'm getting too old for this ****.

I'm not going to waste time projecting next year's roster--it really doesn't matter.  2018-2019 will be lost years, regardless of any steps we take.  

Ideally, for 2020, guys like Candelario, Stewart, Fulmer, Norris, Burrows, Funkhauser, Faedo, Greene, Jiminez, Mahtook and Machado are putting up plus WAR, and Miggy and Upton (if he is still here), can channel older guys like Beltre and Big Papi, who defied the typical offensive decline that goes with old age.

As for Alex, I don't see him coming back.  Hicks has proved he is a more than adequate backup and Grenier is not far behind.  I'm sure Avila will try and parlay his season into a multi-year offer from someone, and will likely get it.

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18 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Interesting, though I'm not worried about the payroll for next year.  Seems like we'll be under the luxury tax organically.  And I really think it's 50/50 with Upton.  If he can finish with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI, I think the odds increase and those numbers seem very likely.  When Upton's current contract expires, he'll be 34, which is a lousy age to negotiate another.  If he opts out and get another 5-6 year deal, it would take him to 35/36.  Any contracts after that will be gravy for him.

It's still not clear to me what the plan is.  They say they want to get younger and more athletic.  Cheaper, too?  This team has not demonstrated that they can draft and develop talent.  It's not even clear if they can trade for it.  With a teardown, and without the elder Ilitch willing to open his checkbook when necessary, are we on the verge of another 1988-2005 drought?  I hope not--I'm getting too old for this ****.

I'm not going to waste time projecting next year's roster--it really doesn't matter.  2018-2019 will be lost years, regardless of any steps we take.  

Ideally, for 2020, guys like Candelario, Stewart, Fulmer, Norris, Burrows, Funkhauser, Faedo, Greene, Jiminez, Mahtook and Machado are putting up plus WAR, and Miggy and Upton (if he is still here), can channel older guys like Beltre and Big Papi, who defied the typical offensive decline that goes with old age.

As for Alex, I don't see him coming back.  Hicks has proved he is a more than adequate backup and Grenier is not far behind.  I'm sure Avila will try and parlay his season into a multi-year offer from someone, and will likely get it.

I agree with most of this, I was just trying to project where the payroll could potentially go.   And for 2019 if you subtract Victor and Ian the committed $$ drops into the $110M range.  At that point the end will be in sight for the JV and  Zimmerman contracts too, so IF JUp opts out the payroll issues are really in the past.    I'm hoping that from there forward the team can make purely baseball decisions.

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This team will be terrible til at least 2020 and thats only if Burrows, Funkhauser, Faedo, Stewart, Candelario,and Manning turn into something.  If we get a bunch of Castellanos 2.0's or Norris 2.0's, this team is ****** for even longer.  Because of the choices this garbage FO has made, to compete again as early as 2020, they have zero margin for error.

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If I were GM, I'd view the starting pitching behind JV and Fulmer as the biggest weakness. However, I don't see a good way to fix that. The only guy I'd consider in FA is Pineda, but I suspect his market will be too much. Barring that, I would just wait the market out and see if there's a guy the scouts and analytics kinda like later on in FA.

I'd be aggressive with the lower tier relief pitchers. Guys I could get for like $2M or so, waiver guys, small trades, etc. I'm expecting 3/5 of my rotation to be crap, so I'm going to want some depth I can half rely on. And maybe one or two of them will turn into a late inning type that I can deal at the deadline if nothing else. I'd also be ready and willing to put Norris, Boyd, and/or Zimmermann there if I think they can be back-end types. I'd start to look at that this season yet. See if the velocity plays up, see if the command plays up in short stints. If they're just mediocre in the pen, I'd keep them in the rotation. Someone has to start.

I'd do my best to move Nick off 3B. If he can't handle RF, I'd force Victor out of the DH as much as I could. Candelario would be the guy I'd hope could handle 3B. Dixon could at least play better defense if he flops.

I'd certainly trade Ian for a fair package. Same with Iggy. I'd re-sign Alex if the price is good. If someone wants to pay him starter money, I think McCann/Hicks would be fine. Right now at least.

For OF, I'd try to take advantage of what might be a poor OF market. Grandy would be nice, but we'll see. There seems to be a lot of OFs out there that I think you'll find someone to fit at CF/RF with Mahtook. And another if JUp opts-out. But you can also look at small trades and guys just off teams 40-man rosters.

So I guess

C-McCann/Hicks (Avila)
1B/DH-Miggy
2B-Kinsler (Machado if traded)
SS-Iggy (Machado if traded)
3B-Candelario/Machado
LF-JUp (??? if opt-out)
CF/RFMahtook
RF/DH/1B-Nick
 

SP1-JV (if not traded)
SP2-Fulmer
CL-Greene
RP-Jimenez
SP/RP-Znn, Norris, Boyd

Beyond those guys, nobody would be in my plans. That's 17 players, a couple of whom could be traded or opt-out, so there should be a lot of room for moves. There are hopefully some relievers that could step up--LaBort and Garcia seem most likely. Maybe you take a look at Burrows in some role by the end of the year. And there's maybe a dozen pitchers in AA/AAA, one of whom could have a Saupold type role.

But yeah, my focus would be pitching depth of all types. Beyond JV and Fulmer, you'll probably see a lot of starts at 5 innings or less.

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I don't think we'll sign any free agents this offseason. No need, really.  Let Norris, Zimmerman, Boyd and Farmer takes their starts, and lumps, if necessary, behind Fulmer and JV.  Bullpen is set for next year.  infield, too.

The only way I see us dipping into free agency is if Upton walks and we sign a stop gap for one year.

interestingly, we have a pretty versatile bench.  In theory, we could go with just Romine, Machado and Hicks and carry 13 pitchers.  Or just get a thumper as a pinch hitter without worrying about where he can play.

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

I don't think we'll sign any free agents this offseason. No need, really.  Let Norris, Zimmerman, Boyd and Farmer takes their starts, and lumps, if necessary, behind Fulmer and JV.  Bullpen is set for next year.  infield, too.

The only way I see us dipping into free agency is if Upton walks and we sign a stop gap for one year.

interestingly, we have a pretty versatile bench.  In theory, we could go with just Romine, Machado and Hicks and carry 13 pitchers.  Or just get a thumper as a pinch hitter without worrying about where he can play.

If you don't want to try and win at all, from the start, then there's not much discussion to be had: trade everyone you can except Fulmer and throw AAAA types in to round out the roster.

But I think they'll try to field at least above replacement players at every position they can, shoot for a team that's projected close to .500, and see if they get hot or lucky the first couple months. There's very few teams that completely tank. Just the White Sox and Padres this season?

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The Tigers can't completely tank or rebuild, even if they wanted to.  Too many unmovable contracts and no-trade clauses.  Miggy, Zimmerman, Victor and JV will all be back, making near $100 million between them.  Upton might be back, too.

in some ways, we're back to the team DD inherited when he had the Easley and Higginson deals that hamstrung the front office ("you try and trade them"). Kind of ironic that he did the same thing to Avila.

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On 8/4/2017 at 0:17 PM, RatkoVarda said:

who would pay money to watch that hot mess? awful

Seriously....they would be lucky to avoid 100 losses with this **** show of a roster....and not much development either, unless you believe that Stewart is going to be a good starter someday, which I doubt.

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11 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I don't think we'll sign any free agents this offseason. No need, really.  Let Norris, Zimmerman, Boyd and Farmer takes their starts, and lumps, if necessary, behind Fulmer and JV.  Bullpen is set for next year.  infield, too.

The only way I see us dipping into free agency is if Upton walks and we sign a stop gap for one year.

interestingly, we have a pretty versatile bench.  In theory, we could go with just Romine, Machado and Hicks and carry 13 pitchers.  Or just get a thumper as a pinch hitter without worrying about where he can play.

Or use Victor as that "Thumper" since his contract is a sunk cost anyway.   That would open the DH spot up for Miggy to at least share and would remove Victor as a base clogger.

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12 minutes ago, LooseGoose said:

Or use Victor as that "Thumper" since his contract is a sunk cost anyway.   That would open the DH spot up for Miggy to at least share and would remove Victor as a base clogger.

I just don't see any logical rationale for MartinezV being on the roster without one of Cabrera, Castellanos, or Candelario not factoring into significant playing time with the Tigers.  Candelario is going to play 3B, Cabrera is going to play 1B/DH, Castellanos will prove again to be useless in the OF and will be at DH/1B.  Those 3 players cannot rotate among only 2 positions in order to carry a -0.5 WAR bat at DH or with no defensive position off of the bench.

The primary concern for next year should be utilizing that roster spot for something of worth rather than trying to extract some production out of that last year of MartinezV's contract.  He is not useful on the field of play anymore.  He just isn't.  Father Time wins again.

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3 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I just don't see any logical rationale for MartinezV being on the roster without one of Cabrera, Castellanos, or Candelario not factoring into significant playing time with the Tigers.  Candelario is going to play 3B, Cabrera is going to play 1B/DH, Castellanos will prove again to be useless in the OF and will be at DH/1B.  Those 3 players cannot rotate among only 2 positions in order to carry a -0.5 WAR bat at DH or with no defensive position off of the bench.

The primary concern for next year should be utilizing that roster spot for something of worth rather than trying to extract some production out of that last year of MartinezV's contract.  He is not useful on the field of play anymore.  He just isn't.  Father Time wins again.

I agree with you.   If you see my projection up above I hope they find a way to buy him out.   I just keep thinking that they aren't purely cutting an $18M contract.    Sharing 1B/DH with Miggy/Casty opens up the possibility of a Upton/Jones/Mahtook OF or another youngster replacing Upton if he opts out.

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