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4 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

I think the NBA incentivizes tanking the most, even with the lottery. The middle of the road teams have no chance of being competitive without blowing everything up and tanking. You need to have a superstar player, and you can't trade for or attract one through free agency without having a top pick.

As for the Tigers, they did such a tremendous job tanking after the deadline, it will allow them one less full on tank season. They should go for a full on tank and another top 3 pick this season. Then start getting the younger guys up to be moderately competitive  but still end up with another top 10 pick in 2019. After that you start going for it. Don't trade any prospects or go sign FAs that cost you draft picks, but by 2020 you should try to set the roster up to be around a legit .500 team, who with a little luck could pull a playoff spot. If things go right 2021 is when you start trying to be legitimate WS contenders.

Agreed. NBA tanking and MLB tanking are on different levels of magnitude.

To get into it a bit further, a baseball tank, which I think they should do, is essentially:

a) not trading away club control for veterans
b) trading away veterans that are having good seasons for club control
c) and not signing anybody to a long-term contract

So what I think you still can do is:

a) fill-in around the edges with club control you acquire via waivers/rule 5/certain trades
b) 1 year free agent deals where you (hopefully) use playing time to develop their value beyond the contract for a trade (and not losing 110 games becomes a side benefit).

I'm not sure there's much to do beyond that. With the NBA you can get multiple 1st round draft picks, draft an immediate starter/all star, get cap space and buy an immediate potential finals team via FA, etc. And of course the high draft pick are much more likely to hit and potentially have a bigger impact.

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2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

100 losses can happen pretty easily with the current crew.  

Given how this group finished the season, I would say that is quite true.  

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2 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

which is not really different from what they should do any year.  The big difference this year is that it wouldn't be productive to add any expensive older players.  

Yep, I wouldn't really want Romine around even if we had a good team. On a minor league deal or minimum contract, fine. Presley could be an okay 4th/5th OF on an okay team. Maybe you keep Hardy as veteran bullpen depth.

I think Iglesias is the only guy for who the calculus would really change. I'd probably keep him either way. Well, I'd tender him either way, I would be very open to trading him now or then.

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6 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Given how this group finished the season, I would say that is quite true.  

I figure they're a 90-100 loss team unless at least 3 of their 4 starters pan out AND Miggy approaches 2016 levels.

If you want to dream about being a decent team, you need 3 or even 4 guys to pitch to #2-4 roles in the rotation, Miggy healthy, Jacoby hitting enough for his glove to play, Nick to be non-terrible in RF, and about 4 new guys in the bullpen to step up. And of course no steps back with Greene, Nick's bat, etc. etc. And probably have to hit on some decent new blood like with JD/Mahtook.

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3 hours ago, irvink said:

Stewart was in AA all season, so I'd guess the organization probably did not think he was ready. AA players are rarely brought up in Sept, unless it's to help a contending team. Gerber was only in Toledo for four games. 

Also, I believe neither player was/is on the 40-man. With such little experience above AA, probably no good reason to put them on the roster earlier than necessary. 

Depending on what happens this offseason, Gerber could make the roster on Opening Day. And hopefully things begin to click this summer for Stewart at AAA. It'd be nice if he can get some MLB time in the second half.

Its not unheard of for guys to skip AAA.  Gerber is 25 now and Stewart will be 24 in a few months.  They both hit fine in AA.  I don't think a call up would have been out of the question.  Especially with Romine and Presley getting the playing time that they were getting in the OF.

Maybe there are service time considerations that Avila weighed into his decision.  I don't know.  

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38 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

which is not really different from what they should do any year.  The big difference this year is that it wouldn't be productive to add any expensive older players.  

Not necessarily. If this team was projected to be competitive, then maybe you are more willing to tender guys like romine and Hardy, simply because they provide somewhat of a known quantity and depth. Even a guy like Presley can have value as a fourth outfielder. 

With a tanking team, it makes more sense to move on from mediocre types and take more risks. 

But for the most part I agree. That should always be the goal. 

 

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3 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Gerber will be added to the 40-man before the rule 5 draft. Stewart doesn't have to be. iirc.

I think they'll start Gerber in AAA just because of service time, and he could probably use it. On the off chance he turns into a MLB regular, you get him 6.X years then instead of 6.0.

I s'pose that could be it.

3 hours ago, Shelton said:

I think it simply makes more sense to use that roster spot for another Mahtook type. Find an outfielder that doesn’t have a spot with his current team but still has some upside. The downside is losing Alex Presley and the guy you bring in not planning out. That’s not a downside, really. 

They could also go the rule 5 route to fill an OF spot.

3 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

They do have flexibility at least in player acquisition. Mahtook and Nick are the only 2 OF, if they see 2 guys they like and can acquire, Jones/Stewart/Gerber can simply start at AAA, and nothing will be lost.

Ah yes, the benefit of having a cruddy team.  There aren't as many roster spots that are tied up to certain players.  But having the options on Jones/Stewart/Gerber is helpful from that standpoint.

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4 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Its not unheard of for guys to skip AAA.  Gerber is 25 now and Stewart will be 24 in a few months.  They both hit fine in AA.  I don't think a call up would have been out of the question.  Especially with Romine and Presley getting the playing time that they were getting in the OF.

Maybe there are service time considerations that Avila weighed into his decision.  I don't know.  

I think it’s pretty rare for a hitter to gonfrom AA and have success in the majors. And for a team that won’t be competitive for a couple years, the service time stuff should definitely come into play. That said, it isn’t likely that either of these guys are going to be productive still after six years anyway at their age. 

I think there is also something to be said for just calling it a year. They aren’t going to learn anything from a few weeks in September anyway. 

I still think I don’t bother calling either of them up until they are OPSing above 800 in AAA. 

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53 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Speaking of rule 5, send me your list, cas. 

I sent you a flow chart rather than a list.  I did use 5 rather than V in the email title.

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20 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I sent you a flow chart rather than a list.  I did use 5 rather than V in the email title.

I guess the fact that I filtered the emails explains why I didn’t see your email come in...

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3 hours ago, Shelton said:

I think it’s pretty rare for a hitter to gonfrom AA and have success in the majors. And for a team that won’t be competitive for a couple years, the service time stuff should definitely come into play. That said, it isn’t likely that either of these guys are going to be productive still after six years anyway at their age. 

I think there is also something to be said for just calling it a year. They aren’t going to learn anything from a few weeks in September anyway. 

I still think I don’t bother calling either of them up until they are OPSing above 800 in AAA. 

Yes, I'm not sure you bother with service time manipulation for a player like Gerber or Stewart. That said, neither player has had much if any time at Toledo, so we should probably see some success there before bringing them to the Show.

And I don't think not calling them up in Sept tells us much for the reasons I mentioned and what Shelton says here. If you are going to skip them over AAA to get a Sept callup for a team on its way to the first pick, you need a good reason. Like if they've destroyed AA, say 900 OPS or more and you figure they will spend a good chunk of the next season on the big club.

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5 hours ago, TigerNation said:

I think the NBA incentivizes tanking the most, even with the lottery. The middle of the road teams have no chance of being competitive without blowing everything up and tanking. You need to have a superstar player, and you can't trade for or attract one through free agency without having a top pick.

As for the Tigers, they did such a tremendous job tanking after the deadline, it will allow them one less full on tank season. They should go for a full on tank and another top 3 pick this season. Then start getting the younger guys up to be moderately competitive  but still end up with another top 10 pick in 2019. After that you start going for it. Don't trade any prospects or go sign FAs that cost you draft picks, but by 2020 you should try to set the roster up to be around a legit .500 team, who with a little luck could pull a playoff spot. If things go right 2021 is when you start trying to be legitimate WS contenders.

Yeah, I can see the argument for the NBA. Although, the draft lottery complicates things and it is possible to entirely build your team through FA in the NBA with 2 or 3 perfectly timed max contracts. It also depends on what team you have- different teams have different chances in enticing top free agents.

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