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1 hour ago, Shelton said:

The team will probably be different. But I don't know that the differences will be substantial.

that said, the team didn't change much from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017. We traded away maybin and cut pelfrey and Lowe.

i could see something similar this offseason, where we part ways with Iglesias and maybe cut/buyout some dead weight (like Victor and anibal). 

They will actually have some room to address needs and stay under the tax, so if what they have already is positioned well enough to be a .500 team (at a baseline level, not aspirationally), Avila could decide to spend a little bit and give the team a chance to compete. 

The big difference could be Upton if he leaves and whether or not they spend that money on improvements.  If they trade Verlander that would also make a big difference, although I suspect they won't.  

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6 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

The big difference could be Upton if he leaves and whether or not they spend that money on improvements.  If they trade Verlander that would also make a big difference, although I suspect they won't.  

Indeed. Upton leaving or staying could change everything. If he stays, it will probably be difficult to trade him immediately. But by him staying, they are in decent shape if they keep everyone else. So there is incentive to keep everyone. No one is going to banging on the door to trade for any of guys. 

If upton leaves, then you are looking at a much more difficult chance to compete (although with more money to spend).  But it's a much bigger hill to climb to replace him without adding another long term contract. So it could make sense at that point to try to get what you can for guys like JV and Kinsler. 

I have no idea whether Avila wants upton to stay or not. I think he wanted him to stay, he could point out that with him in the fold, they can compete. 

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Based off WAR, the current roster would be about 81 wins. Its possible shifting Castellanos over to DH and moving up Candelario to 3B and benching or cutting V Mart is a net positive. They'd need breakout or unexpected years from a few position players and starting pitchers in their mid 20's (like Nick and Daniel Norris) and a return to form for JV, Cabrera and Zimmermann to make the playoffs.

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On 8/2/2017 at 3:30 PM, Shelton said:

Indeed. Upton leaving or staying could change everything. If he stays, it will probably be difficult to trade him immediately. But by him staying, they are in decent shape if they keep everyone else. So there is incentive to keep everyone. No one is going to banging on the door to trade for any of guys. 

If upton leaves, then you are looking at a much more difficult chance to compete (although with more money to spend).  But it's a much bigger hill to climb to replace him without adding another long term contract. So it could make sense at that point to try to get what you can for guys like JV and Kinsler. 

I have no idea whether Avila wants upton to stay or not. I think he wanted him to stay, he could point out that with him in the fold, they can compete. 

Another way that Upton's decision will have impact is in what their options are with Castellanos.  It is looking pretty clear that they no longer have any illusions that Nick is going to become a good enough 3b for his bat to net them a plus player and they have now obtained the 3b depth to allow them to trade him if they can find an acceptable offer. But despite the previous failures, it's still easy to see them making another attempt at moving him to the OF. But Henning's talk of putting him in right is crazy. If Nick is going to play OF at all it has to be left. An that is where the Upton equation enters. Justin doesn't do right field, so if he stays, it blocks any possibility of Nick getting a shot there and increases the need to deal Nick. If Upton goes, they are looking for a new RF and I can see them giving Nick another shot at Left.

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I just think Nick will mostly DH. Stewart will be 24 next year. It seems like he'll get a crack at being an opening day starter at a corner OF spot. Candelario will be 24, as well, and get a crack at being an opening day starter at 3B. Barring a firesale, it seems like they'll spend some money they have available in FA to get a reliever or two and stay below the luxury tax enough to maybe add a player at the deadline if everything goes miraculously right and they are somehow in a position to be buyers this time next year. If instead things go as expected, then they sell off Kinsler, Iglesias, Greene and Verlander next deadline. Maybe Castellanos too.

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5 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Another way that Upton's decision will have impact is in what their options are with Castellanos.  It is looking pretty clear that they no longer have any illusions that Nick is going to become a good enough 3b for his bat to net them a plus player and they have now obtained the 3b depth to allow them to trade him if they can find an acceptable offer. But despite the previous failures, it's still easy to see them making another attempt at moving him to the OF. But Henning's talk of putting him in right is crazy. If Nick is going to play OF at all it has to be left. An that is where the Upton equation enters. Justin doesn't do right field, so if he stays, it blocks any possibility of Nick getting a shot there and increases the need to deal Nick. If Upton goes, they are looking for a new RF and I can see them giving Nick another shot at Left.

Is this by preference or (in)ability?

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6 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Another way that Upton's decision will have impact is in what their options are with Castellanos.  It is looking pretty clear that they no longer have any illusions that Nick is going to become a good enough 3b for his bat to net them a plus player and they have now obtained the 3b depth to allow them to trade him if they can find an acceptable offer. But despite the previous failures, it's still easy to see them making another attempt at moving him to the OF. But Henning's talk of putting him in right is crazy. If Nick is going to play OF at all it has to be left. An that is where the Upton equation enters. Justin doesn't do right field, so if he stays, it blocks any possibility of Nick getting a shot there and increases the need to deal Nick. If Upton goes, they are looking for a new RF and I can see them giving Nick another shot at Left.

I strongly disagree that nick is somehow an option in left field but not in right field. 

In either case he's going to be a poor defender. But there just isn't that big of a difference between the two. At least in comerica playing RF is a bit easier. 

Either way, I still think he is destined for more of a DH role, but it would be nice if he could play in the outfield from time to time. He does seem to be more athletic than when they first tried this experiement, and with 3b no longer a true option, they need to try something. 

At this point of the season, they might as well start trying it out. Or maybe wait until September. 

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16 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I strongly disagree that nick is somehow an option in left field but not in right field. 

In either case he's going to be a poor defender. But there just isn't that big of a difference between the two. At least in comerica playing RF is a bit easier. 

Either way, I still think he is destined for more of a DH role, but it would be nice if he could play in the outfield from time to time. He does seem to be more athletic than when they first tried this experiement, and with 3b no longer a true option, they need to try something. 

At this point of the season, they might as well start trying it out. Or maybe wait until September. 

I don't expect Castellanos in the OF to go well, but, assuming they are still out of it by then, I don't see the harm in trying it a bit.  The better athleticism might make him better than the results in Erie were, I don't know.

Who knows, maybe he becomes trade bait in the offseason to acquire young CF talent.  Of the top of my head, I'm not sure who would take him as a 3B, but goofy things happen in the offseason.  Oakland?  Boston?  I don't know.

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Jeff Conine, when he wasn't at 1B, was probably the worst defensive OF I've ever seen in MLB.  I don't know if Nick is capable of being worse, but it doesn't take much imagination to think he possibly could be.

I understand why the Tigers may need him to field different positions, but it is a terrifying prospect.  Perhaps it is better to not play him at other positions and just let other teams find out how bad he is out there?  

Micro coming on here and telling us how bad he was in LF is good enough for me.

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25 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I don't expect Castellanos in the OF to go well, but, assuming they are still out of it by then, I don't see the harm in trying it a bit.  The better athleticism might make him better than the results in Erie were, I don't know.

Who knows, maybe he becomes trade bait in the offseason to acquire young CF talent.  Of the top of my head, I'm not sure who would take him as a 3B, but goofy things happen in the offseason.  Oakland?  Boston?  I don't know.

The harm would be in not trying it. I think they will try it. Get him out there in BP a couple times a week shagging flies. Then get him in some games. Get your analytics guys using their field/fx data to see whether it can work. 

Nick does have a relatively high sprint speed according to statcast. 

If he can handle it decently enough, that addresses a big need. They could still part ways with Victor and then go out and try to sign a granderson type, letting castellanos DH. 

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25 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

Jeff Conine, when he wasn't at 1B, was probably the worst defensive OF I've ever seen in MLB.  I don't know if Nick is capable of being worse, but it doesn't take much imagination to think he possibly could be.

I understand why the Tigers may need him to field different positions, but it is a terrifying prospect.  Perhaps it is better to not play him at other positions and just let other teams find out how bad he is out there?  

Micro coming on here and telling us how bad he was in LF is good enough for me.

I see your Conine and raise you to Elmn.

I agree that assessment of the previous attempt carries a lot of weight.  I expect Castellanos to be at 3B/1B/DH in future seasons.  They can try OF, but I'm not buying it as anything other than another attempt.

Honestly, I don't know how much I put faith into his ability to be an average fielding 1B.  He has cooled down a bit at the plate lately.  I don't always buy into the theory that you a position player has to have a particular bat to be adequate at a particular position.  If a team can make up for that production elsewhere on the diamond, but it offense or run prevention, I'm not too worried about it.  But I'm up for adding as much 2 way talent to the team as possible.  And I think if the team can address that at another position via trade of Castellanos, I'm all for it. 

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I think the best way to get potential value from castellanos in a trade would be to show that he can play the outfield. It may be unlikely, but we already know that he can't play 3b. 

His past failure to play OF is relevant. But it was also a long time ago. An attempt to try it now isn't necessarily doomed. 

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8 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I think the best way to get potential value from castellanos in a trade would be to show that he can play the outfield. It may be unlikely, but we already know that he can't play 3b. 

His past failure to play OF is relevant. But it was also a long time ago. An attempt to try it now isn't necessarily doomed. 

I don't know.  It might be best to let someone else figure out he can't play OF.

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7 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I don't know.  It might be best to let someone else figure out he can't play OF.

I don't think anyone is going to give up anything of value for a 3b that can't play 3b in the hope that maybe he can play OF. 

If we didn't already have him under contract, I wouldn't trade for him. 

The expectation right now is probably that he can't play OF. I don't think proving thatbto be true changes much. 

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2 hours ago, Shelton said:

I strongly disagree that nick is somehow an option in left field but not in right field. 

In either case he's going to be a poor defender. But there just isn't that big of a difference between the two. At least in comerica playing RF is a bit easier. 

Either way, I still think he is destined for more of a DH role, but it would be nice if he could play in the outfield from time to time. He does seem to be more athletic than when they first tried this experiement, and with 3b no longer a true option, they need to try something. 

At this point of the season, they might as well start trying it out. Or maybe wait until September. 

the cost in runs allowed to having a poor defender in RF is much higher than if he is in left. 

this is why it was frustrating even to see JD play right with Upton in left. JD had the arm to play right, but was far from having adequate speed and catching skill. Upton would not have been much better but overall the Tiger OF would have been better if they had switched - but Uption won't play RF and in his first year when he played a little left, JD couldn't seem to get his bearings there. It was paradoxical and counterproductive application of talent with that OF.

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14 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

the cost in runs allowed to having a poor defender in RF is much higher than if he is in left. 

this is why it was frustrating even to see JD play right with Upton in left. JD had the arm to play right, but was far from having adequate speed and catching skill. Upton would not have been much better but overall the Tiger OF would have been better if they had switched - but Uption won't play RF and in his first year when he played a little left, JD couldn't seem to get his bearings there. It was paradoxical and counterproductive application of talent with that OF.

The cost may be higher, but I don't know that it would be much higher. In any event, we won't know until we try. 

 

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I'm going to make two predictions, one assuming the Tigers are not going to spend to contend next year, and one assuming they do:

Cheap option:

C: McCann/Hicks

1B: Cabrera

2B: Kinsler

3B: Castellanos

SS: Machado (Iglesias traded for savings)

LF: Upton

CF: Mahtook

RF: Jones/Candelario/Stewart

DH: Martinez

Bench: Romine, one of the above listed RFs, whoever isn't starting of McCann/Hicks, Minor League Infielder

SP: Verlander, Fulmer, Norris, Boyd, Zimmermann

RP: Greene, Jimenez, Rondon, A. Wilson, Saupold, two minor leaguers/low cost free agents

I'll go 70-75 wins for this

With some spending:

C: McCann/Avila or some mid level free agent

1B: Cabrera

2B: Kinsler

3B: Castellanos

SS: Iglesias

LF: Upton

CF: Mahtook

RF: Free Agent (the magical return of JD?)

DH: Martinez

Bench: Romine, Candelario, Hicks, free agent or minor leaguer or Machado

SP: Verlander, Fulmer, Norris, Zimmermann, Decent Free Agent

RP: Greene, Jimenez, Rondon, A. Wilson, Saupold, Boyd, higher cost free agent

Adding another solid SP, a better catching option,  a back end reliever, and a high quality RF has me bumping them up to 80-85 wins

So, is it worth spending a bunch of money just to get on the fringes of contention? To me it is, sure, because I'd find that team a lot more interesting. Not sure if ownership will feel the same way.

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Putting Nick in RF would be a complete clownshow, but hey--if Nero can enjoy watching Rome burn then we should be able to watch Nick butcher the daylights out of RF.  

storymaker-nero-palace-rome-archaeology-slide-show-1104151-515x388.jpg

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go get a young glove first CF (Dalton Pompey, Raimel Tapia), that gives you a really good defensive team

sign one vet 4-5 starter, add one vet reliever, win the Central

DH-Victor

C-McCann

1b-Miggy

2b-Kinsler

SS-Iglesias

3b-Candelario

LF-Upton

CF-glove guy

RF-MM

Bench: Hicks (or Alex), Castellanos, Machado, Pressley/Duece/LH bat

Verlander, Fulmer, Zimm, Norris, (Vet)

Greene, Vet, Jimenez, Wilson, Ferrell, Garcia, Rondon, Aussie, Boyd, Labourt, Hardy, Bell, Stumpf 

Edit: also this gives them a non-laughable talent pool at Toledo of Lugo, Stewart, Gerber, Jones, Eaves, Greiner, Focococlelliieo

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6 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

go get a young glove first CF (Dalton Pompey, Raimel Tapia), that gives you a really good defensive team

sign one vet 4-5 starter, add one vet reliever, win the Central

DH-Victor

C-McCann

1b-Miggy

2b-Kinsler

SS-Iglesias

3b-Candelario

LF-Upton

CF-glove guy

RF-MM

Bench: Hicks (or Alex), Castellanos, Machado, Pressley/Duece/LH bat

Verlander, Fulmer, Zimm, Norris, (Vet)

Greene, Vet, Jimenez, Wilson, Ferrell, Garcia, Rondon, Aussie, Boyd, Labourt, Hardy, Bell, Stumpf 

I don't see it.

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Kevin Riemer (sp?) was the worst outfielder I ever saw, bar none.

Nothing lost to try Castellanos in OF once they are out of it, but I highly doubt he will be adequate there.

I think OF defense is one of those things where you need a lot of experience/exposure to improve markedly.

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34 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I don't see it.

just waiting on Victor to go at some point early (better) or late in 2018

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