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I'll come back to this later, but I would like to start looking at 2018 and what type of team we might be able to expect. I'm thinking about using the old "add up the WAR" at each position, rotation, and bullpen. 

Could this team project to be .500? I'm guessing it comes in around the high 70s. 

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It's pretty early yet.

I think that the starting pitching will be a bit better next year, altogether. I think any regression that we see out of Fulmer should be corrected by a net improvement out of the others. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the minor league arms make the rotation out of spring training. 

I think that we're probably due for a league-average season out of the relievers. 

 I don't think the offense is going to be as good as it has been this year, on the whole. If Upton opts out, we're in trouble.  I do think we'll see some growth out of Nick, and Miggy should bounce back quite a bit, but it's going to be rough out there for the young guys and the AAAA crew. I do think it will be cool to see what Stewart and Candelario can do, but young guys are going to go through some growing pains. That goes for the AAAA contingent, too.  Ian's going to continue to age and Mikie will probably come back down to earth. McCann is McCann - new approach be damned. 

77-85, with a chance to go 83-79 or 71-91. That's assuming that no meaningful free agent position players or starting pitchers are brought in. 

This year I had us at 83-79, with a chance to go 74-88 or 88-74. 

 

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C (McCann / Hicks or Avila) - 2
1B (mostly healthy Miggy) - 3
2B (Ian) - 2.5
SS (Jose) - 2
3B (Nick/Candelario) - 1.5
LF (Upton) - 3
CF (Mahtook) - 1.5
RF (scrubs) - 0.5
DH (Victor/scrubs) - 0.5

SP1 (Fulmer) - 3.5
SP2 (JV) - 3.5
SP3 (Znn) - 1.0
SP4 (Boyd) - 1.0
SP5 - (Norris) - 1.0

Bullpen - 1.5

Total WAR: 28

Replacement level wins: 48

Record: 76-86

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86 - 76 and wild card playoff. Thats with Upton and Verlander. I am betting on Miggy and the Rotation being MUCH better and Candelaria providing much better defense and good offense at 3B .

Seriously are there any players on the 2016 Tigers that could do worse than they have this year ? Maybe Fullmer. The spring is due to rebound in a big way.

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38 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

C (McCann / Hicks or Avila) - 2
1B (mostly healthy Miggy) - 3
2B (Ian) - 2.5
SS (Jose) - 2
3B (Nick/Candelario) - 1.5
LF (Upton) - 3
CF (Mahtook) - 1.5
RF (scrubs) - 0.5
DH (Victor/scrubs) - 0.5

SP1 (Fulmer) - 3.5
SP2 (JV) - 3.5
SP3 (Znn) - 1.0
SP4 (Boyd) - 1.0
SP5 - (Norris) - 1.0

Bullpen - 1.5

Total WAR: 28

Replacement level wins: 48

Record: 76-86

Excellent. Just need to see where we can five wins out of that group. I would say those estimates seem pretty conservative. 

One thing to do could be moving nick to DH and going with Jeimer at 3b. Can he be a 2 win 3b? I think nick is a 2 win DH. 

I think upton could be higher. 

10 war from the rotation is troubling. Nothing wrong with those projections, though. But turn that 10 into 13 and things look a lot better. 

3B plus DH = 4 instead of 2

upton = 3.5 instead of 3

rf= 1 instead of 0.5

rotation = 13 instead of 10

That would be six more wins and an 82 win baseline season if the projections are reasonable. 

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2 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Excellent. Just need to see where we can five wins out of that group. I would say those estimates seem pretty conservative. 

One thing to do could be moving nick to DH and going with Jeimer at 3b. Can he be a 2 win 3b? I think nick is a 2 win DH. 

I think upton could be higher. 

10 war from the rotation is troubling. Nothing wrong with those projections, though. But turn that 10 into 13 and things look a lot better. 

3B plus DH = 4 instead of 2

upton = 3.5 instead of 3

rf= 1 instead of 0.5

rotation = 13 instead of 10

That would be six more wins and an 82 win baseline season if the projections are reasonable. 

If Greene is our best closer since Todd Jones and Jeimer is rookie of the year will that do it ?

And why not ?

 

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Off subject a bit but it was something I was thinking about, when you add up team WAR by player isn't it a little flawed if you get value from defense?  It seems to me that it is essentially added twice because you get the value added to the player playing the defense but your pitcher's WAR will also be better because they are giving up fewer runs because of it.(assuming you use bWAR) 

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Just a hunch more than anything else, but I do think that MartinezV is 50/50 for next season.  Maybe its a wink & a nod release, maybe he just flat out retires, I don't know.  That roster spot opening up would be helpful for bench depth and defense.

I also think that Upton is 50/50.  I wouldn't mind holding onto him because he's a darn good ballplayer.  If he sticks around, does he move to RF with Stewart in LF and Mahtook in CF?  If he sticks around in LF, Stewart just hangs out in Toledo?  I guess you don't try to make decisions revolving around Stewart, but at some point they have to see if the bat plays in the bigs (possible) and if they can hide his glove (questionable).

I think we can all agree that Sanchez will not have his team option picked up.

I would think Kinsler still has value on next season's contract and the option is picked up.  Now whether or not he is playing for the Tigers is the debate.  They might ultimately go with two of Kinsler/Iglesias/Machado up the middle, and it just depends up which one of Kinsler/Iglesias they can move.

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If you look at the fangraphs Tigers depth chart, for the final third of the season, the batters are projected for 6 war and the pitchers are projected for 5 war. So that would be 18 and 15 over a full season for a total of 33 war and an 81-81 record. 

That includes zero war from RF and DH. We should be able to improve on those positions to get a couple more wins. We would need to cut Victor and move nick to DH, with Jeimer taking over at 3B. 

Maybe nick in RF could be ok, but a granderson type move could work there too. 

This offseason could go either way. I would like to see them make some modest moves to address RF and DH and then see what happens. They can always make moves at the next deadline. 

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14 hours ago, socaltiger said:

isnt Gardner the winning run ??What does Rod mean his run means nothing.

Rod usually calls a good game.  Sometimes that game Rod is talking about might actually be the same exact game you and Rod Allen are watching live,...sometimes not.

I chalk it up to carbon monoxide poisoning in the booth....

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4 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Correct answer. Speculating is fun but not very accurate.

I love projections, but I think the team will look a lot different next April than it does now.  It is OK to try to figure out out where they stand now.  I was just joking.  

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Just now, tiger337 said:

I love projections, but I think the team will look a lot different next April than it does now.  It is OK to try to figure out out where they stand now.  I was just joking.  

Joking? Let's take it a step further and project the 2019 line-up. 😋

Now, that was a joke....

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34 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I love projections, but I think the team will look a lot different next April than it does now.  It is OK to try to figure out out where they stand now.  I was just joking.  

No more jokes. The forum Joke-o-meter is busted today

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22 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

No more jokes. The forum Joke-o-meter is busted today

Jokes are often better when not everybody gets them.  

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8 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Jokes are often better when not everybody gets them.  

This one is particularly good. 

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The team will probably be different. But I don't know that the differences will be substantial.

that said, the team didn't change much from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017. We traded away maybin and cut pelfrey and Lowe.

i could see something similar this offseason, where we part ways with Iglesias and maybe cut/buyout some dead weight (like Victor and anibal). 

They will actually have some room to address needs and stay under the tax, so if what they have already is positioned well enough to be a .500 team (at a baseline level, not aspirationally), Avila could decide to spend a little bit and give the team a chance to compete. 

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