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Tusch

2018 Contracts

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I was looking up details of the Tigers guaranteed contracts for next year. I am assuming a continued payroll cut, so this is what they will be working with:

Verlander, Justin                    7 yr/$180M (13-19)+20 opt                           $28,000,000
Cabrera, Miguel
8 yr/$248M (16-23)+24-25 opts
$28,000,000
Upton, Justin 6 yr/$132.75M (16-21) $22,125,000
Zimmermann, Jordan
5 yr/$110M (16-20) $18,000,000
Martinez, Victor 4 yr/$68M (15-18) $18,000,000
Sanchez, Anibal 5 yr/$80M (13-17)+18 opt $16,800,000
Kinsler, Ian
5 yr/$75M (13-17)+18 cl opt
$11,000,000

 

Kinsler is a club option, and I assume he will be back.  There is a $5 million club buy out to end Sanchez contract. Upton has an opt-out after 2017 and could walk, but with his numbers right now, I don't think he will leave $100 million on the table. 

We also have $6 million to Prince Fielder and $2 million differed to K-Rod. That is $154 million before any arbitration or free agent signings. 

It looks like it might be a dark couple of years to come.

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Upton will probably opt out.  No reason not to.  He'll still get paid, maybe not as much, but it will still be a good amount.  Im sure he'd gladly give up a few million a year to play for a team that has a chance to win because thats not happening here in the near future. 

I wouldnt be surprised if they decline Kinsler and give him the 5mil buyout. 

No way Sanchez isnt being bought out. 

Even though theyll still have to pay him, id be stunned if team didnt mercy kill Vmart this offseason. 

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Anibal will certainly be bought out, so the numbers won't be that high.

They do get some breaks for luxury tax purposes, in that the buyouts to Ian and Anibal won't count for 2018, whether they use them or not. So Sanchez will count as 0, and Ian will only count as $6M when they pick up the option. KRod will count as 0 as well.

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It seems like it makes sense they shed as much salary as possible. 

--Will Upton really want to stick around for a rebuild?  I mean, they don't want it called that but . . .

--Is using the same logic AA used with K-Rod bad to use with Kinsler?  Are they better off Keeping Iglesias and starting Machado at 2B for developmental and salary reasons?  I read speculation on non-tendering Iglesias and that makes less sense than several other solutions.  With Kinsler in decline, is he worth the extra money?

--Sanchez being bought out is a no-brainer.

--Is the extra million they will spend on Romine over promoting someone from Toledo like Ficociello, who is also a switch-hitting utility guy with decent athleticism?

 

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This is where the "just tread water" or the "middle ground" crowds argument falls apart IMO. 156M and that is before raises to Iggy, Casty, and filling out the rest of the roster. Basically around 165-175M to field the same team they have now.

AA wouldn't trade prospects last year so he more that likely wont next year either. That leaves free agency to find a SP or 2, 2 good bullpen arms, and a rightfielder.

It doesn't seem likely to me that they will continue to spend like they have given the current state of the organization.

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7 minutes ago, Stanley68 said:

This is where the "just tread water" or the "middle ground" crowds argument falls apart IMO. 156M and that is before raises to Iggy, Casty, and filling out the rest of the roster. Basically around 165-175M to field the same team they have now.

AA wouldn't trade prospects last year so he more that likely wont next year either. That leaves free agency to find a SP or 2, 2 good bullpen arms, and a rightfielder.

It doesn't seem likely to me that they will continue to spend like they have given the current state of the organization.

It does get progressively better each year. And the only major moves they could do anyways is trade JV or JUp if he opts-in.

Unless you dump Znn with Fulmer there's not much choice.

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Well they have already tried to trade JV, allegedly, don't know why they would not revisit that this off season. And if JV is on the table why wouldn't Upton be as well?

I take AA's statement of not being ordered to cut payroll as they won't be including a valuable piece like Fulmer in a deal to offset a bad contract being included in a trade.

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It is what it is. They committed to these contracts years ago. 

The key is the luxury tax amount. If they are below the tax it will be fine. Considering how high above the tax they are this season, the payroll is being substantially reduced. 

There is very little they can do when the contracts are guaranteed. Trading JV is an option, but they probably have to eat 10 million per year to get any sort of decent return. So you reduced payroll only by 16 million. 

Kinsler and Iglesias will each count the same against the tax. You can shed a bit of that. The decision would be which one. Your return on Kinsler is probably better than Iglesias, but who knows. 

I do think it makes sense to give machado an every day job. If he can prove to be useful in 2018, that is one less spot they need to think about addressing in 2019. I think they will trade Iglesias. He's worth 6-8 million and I'm sure there is a team out there that wouldn't mind a stop gap there. 

But I guess if you can find a spot for Kinsler, that gives the tigers a chance to keep Iglesias in 2019 by extending him. None of the prospects they got recently are going to fill 2b in 2019, so that could be a spot for machado.

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9 minutes ago, Stanley68 said:

Well they have already tried to trade JV, allegedly, don't know why they would not revisit that this off season. And if JV is on the table why wouldn't Upton be as well?

I take AA's statement of not being ordered to cut payroll as they won't be including a valuable piece like Fulmer in a deal to offset a bad contract being included in a trade.

I take his statement that they don't have to cut payroll as exactly that. They don't have to. 

Hes been saying this all along. Everyone took his comments as wanting to build the farm system and operating within their means to mean some sort of fire sale. But that hasn't been the case.

He made two trades of valuable assets for farm pieces. Nothing he gave up was part of their long term future. 

He wants to make good baseball trades. He isn't going to dump anyone. That could mean trading JV. But he's only going to do it if he can get back good pieces.

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39 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I take his statement that they don't have to cut payroll as exactly that. They don't have to. 

But they are cutting payroll and tried to move JV.

Hes been saying this all along. Everyone took his comments as wanting to build the farm system and operating within their means to mean some sort of fire sale. But that hasn't been the case.

A firesale and a rebuild are not the same thing. A firesale suggests a financial urgency, I personally don't think that is the case here.

He made two trades of valuable assets for farm pieces. Nothing he gave up was part of their long term future. 

But he traded part of next years team and a player that was needed in Wilson.

He wants to make good baseball trades. He isn't going to dump anyone. That could mean trading JV. But he's only going to do it if he can get back good pieces.

If they can't get legitimate prospects back then i agree they may not move guys like JV, Cabrera, Kinsler and VMart. They will just let their contracts expire.

 

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We don't know how hard they tried to trade JV. Pretty much every report was that they weren't going to eat salary and that they demanded a lot. That sounds a lot like "we will listen" as opposed to calling teams and trying to trade him. 

I agree that there is no fire sale or urgency to shed payroll. 

Wilson isn't that important. Much more important to add Jeimer and paredes to the org. 

JV and Kinsler are definitely tradeable, but not because they need or want to shed payroll. 

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The situation with JV is something I would interpret as 'treading water.' Pretty much waiting for a great deal, but not forcing anything to cut payroll.

Same with JD, JWil, Alex. Waiting for a great deal, but then being more malleable to a trade when time to do so ran out.

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I'm going to start a thread for projecting the 2018 Tigers. Let's see just how bad this is going to be.  

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