RedRamage

Upton more or less likely to opt out after JD trade?

38 posts in this topic

21 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

How many people take less money to change jobs?

 

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He's not getting 4/88 as a free agent, not even close.  The righthanded power market is dead.

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I bet that JD hopes upton doesn't opt out. If both are out there, I might prefer upton, especially if I was running an NL team. 

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1 hour ago, Charles Liston said:

He's not getting 4/88 as a free agent, not even close.  The righthanded power market is dead.

Agree. Market for these guys has plummeted. 

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If the market for these guys is so low, why didn't the Tigers re-sign JD to a small team friendly contract?

I don't think Upton will get 4/88, but I do believe some desperate for hitting team will give either him or JD a lot more than people expect. 

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18 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

If the market for these guys is so low, why didn't the Tigers re-sign JD to a small team friendly contract?

I don't think Upton will get 4/88, but I do believe some desperate for hitting team will give either him or JD a lot more than people expect. 

I think it's hard to say what the market is. Like you said, it only takes one team. Cespedes got a good deal from the mets this past offseason. But encarnacion's deal with Cleveland was less than expected. 

As for why the Tigers didn't sign him to a team friendly deal, who knows. I think a big part is that JD probably figured he could do at least as well as a team friendly contract if one was actually offered and he declined it. He could be wrong. We also don't know whether anything was offered or not. Maybe it wasn't even offered.  I think another factor is that by signing Zimmermann and upton and having JV and Cabrera under contract, maybe they just didn't have the space to do it. 

Or maybe the tigers figured that the market isn't going to be great, so no problem letting him his free agency and then getting him on the reduced contract when the market doesn't bring a big deal for him. By not signing him, it allowed him to be dealt for prospects that the team needed. 

Personally, I think JD is going to get paid if upton isn't also a free agent. I think there will be at least one team out there that really wants a guy like him and will pay big to make sure they are the one that gets him. But if upton is a free agent, that changes things, because I think most teams would be happy to get one of them if they don't get the other, so there is less risk that you will miss out and you won't feel pressure to make a deal early. 

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29 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

If the market for these guys is so low, why didn't the Tigers re-sign JD to a small team friendly contract?

I don't think Upton will get 4/88, but I do believe some desperate for hitting team will give either him or JD a lot more than people expect. 

I agree.  I expect him to be an attractive free agent.  He may not get 4/88, but I suspect he will come close and at his age might be able to get 5 years even if average per year is lower.  

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Didn't the Tigers off JD something like 4/80 last year and he turned it down? I remember hearing that somewhere. I think JD will have trouble beating that for sure. The market for power corner guys who aren't good defenders seems to have taken a real dive. I think JD could possibly match 4/80 on the open market, but I would definitely take the under on him. Josh Reddick put up more WAR heading into FA - and got 4/52. They're different players, but I see JD and maybe even Upton more in that Category, 4/60 or so.

 

 

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Didn't Cespedes just get a big contract? Upton would profile similar to him. I don't think getting a 5 year deal for $100 million or matching his current 4 year arrangement is unrealistic.

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Cespedes had the good fortune of a monster finish with the Mets. Plus, I think his overall profile with defense and speed made him a more attractive player. Probably why we got Fulmer + Cessa for renting him out vs the detritus we received for JD.

That almost feels like a different era, with the way balls are flying out of the park these days, power is much easier to come by. That said JD looks like the clear cut best corner OF bat on the market next year. Upton would be right there with him. The only other exciting FA OFer is Lorenzo Cain.

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I think JD will basically be viewed as a DH and would get less than Upton. 

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On 7/21/2017 at 11:15 AM, Gehringer_2 said:

winning is elusive and ephemeral, money is hard fact. I just don't think you find many mid-career pro athletes willing to leave money on the table. Maybe guys at the end of their careers looking for that swan song, but J UP is a ways from that.

If he opts in, he will be 34 when he signs his next (not as lucrative) deal.  He could take the money now and hope the club rebounds quickly and, if all that fails, chase a ring later. 

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