RedRamage

Upton more or less likely to opt out after JD trade?

38 posts in this topic

Granted, this is based on very limited observation, it seemed like JD and JUp were sort of hitting it off as team mates.  They appeared to be pretty friendly in the dugout.  I just wonder if this makes it more likely that JUp opts out.

 

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I don't think the JD trade moves the needle much, if at all, WRT Upton's decision to opt out or in.

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12 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Granted, this is based on very limited observation, it seemed like JD and JUp were sort of hitting it off as team mates.  They appeared to be pretty friendly in the dugout.  I just wonder if this makes it more likely that JUp opts out.

 

I think most of time, the media overdoes the 'losing a teammate and friend' angle. Alex eventually got exasperated with Trevor Thompson trying to work that angle last night and had to remind him that he still lives next door to JD in Florida. Between modern communication, ST, winter workouts, scheduled games with each other's teams, player friendships do survive trades.

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J-Up will wait to see if his stats justify him being a top 5 OF this off season. If so, he goes. If not, he won't. Thats about the only way he has a chance to earn more money....

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can you ask the question again if we end up moving Verlander, Avila, JWil and Iglesias?  The answer might be the same--largely if he thinks he can improve his contract status, but he might be more inclined if he thinks he'll be stuck within a rebuild over the remainder of his contract.

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I think its irrelevant. Barring injury and a bad finish to the season, I think he'll opt out though- it seems like he would make more money by opting out than opting in.

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12 hours ago, Scottwood said:

I think its irrelevant. Barring injury and a bad finish to the season, I think he'll opt out though- it seems like he would make more money by opting out than opting in.

So many different ways of looking at this. I don't think it's going to be an easy decision for him. The free agent market is hard to predict these days, and walking away from 88 million guaranteed cant be easy to do. 

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I wonder if he wants to collect his money on a rebuilding team that will always be looking for someone to take his deal. 

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42 minutes ago, kdog said:

I wonder if he wants to collect his money on a rebuilding team that will always be looking for someone to take his deal. 

winning is elusive and ephemeral, money is hard fact. I just don't think you find many mid-career pro athletes willing to leave money on the table. Maybe guys at the end of their careers looking for that swan song, but J UP is a ways from that.

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2 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

winning is elusive and ephemeral, money is hard fact. I just don't think you find many mid-career pro athletes willing to leave money on the table. Maybe guys at the end of their careers looking for that swan song, but J UP is a ways from that.

They won't leave money on the table, but they are often arrogant enough to think they can make more money someplace else.  In his case, I think he can at least come close.  I don't think it would be a huge risk for him if he decided to leave.  

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As long as he doesn't go into a protracted slump the remainder of the season, I think it is reasonable to gamble that he could sign a very similar deal with a contending team. I don't think it's arrogance. I do think it is a huge point of pride for these guys to have that world series ring and there's no question we are in for a lengthy rebuilding period.

I'm Jup or JV, I'm looking to get out of here.

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10 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

They won't leave money on the table, but they are often arrogant enough to think they can make more money someplace else.  In his case, I think he can at least come close.  I don't think it would be a huge risk for him if he decided to leave.  

don't disagree that he might leave if thinks he can get more. I am less persuaded he will worry that much about the win/loss record of the team that makes the better offer.

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The recent rise of the opt out has made it difficult to predict what a player will do. In a couple years we will have a better idea about how often these opt outs are exercised. 

Vernon wells had that awful contract that included an opt out, and by the time he got to the opt out, he had become replacement level. Obviously he didn't opt out.

a rod had the opt out and used it, and the Yankees gave him a silly contract after he did it. CC also used his opt out, and the Yankees gave him a ridiculous deal, too. 

Recently, greinke used his opt out and did very well. 

James shields obviously did not opt out. 

Scott Kazmir didn't opt out this past offseason. 

I don't know if there is a great example of a player like upton opting in or opting out. most of the opt out decisions we have seen have been no brainers. 

It is not that different from the QO practice. Early on, almost every guy declined a QO, and then there were a handful of guys that didn't do any better, or even went unsigned. Recently, we have had more players take the QO. There is plenty of evidence over the past couple years that teams aren't looking to spend big on free agents like in the past. 

Even the year upton signed with the Tigers, he was still sitting there late in free agency, along with cespedes. Cespedes settled for a one year deal with an opt out (which was an easy decision). Then he re signed with the mets. 

I think it's far more risky to opt out these days unless you are a superstar. I don't think upton qualifies as a superstar. 

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Just now, rhino said:

As long as he doesn't go into a protracted slump the remainder of the season, I think it is reasonable to gamble that he could sign a very similar deal with a contending team. I don't think it's arrogance. I do think it is a huge point of pride for these guys to have that world series ring and there's no question we are in for a lengthy rebuilding period.

I'm Jup or JV, I'm looking to get out of here.

I'm not so sure. The quality of 'going to work' for a baseball player - who is at it 9 months a year, goes beyond the win/loss record. The Tigers have always prided themselves on making the team a nice place to work Unless that changes (and in a new regime it certainly might be changing), I don't think you are going to see guys running for the exits just over the team's record. Cases like Max, where I think he wanted to be out of JVs shadow would be another matter.

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2 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I'm not so sure. The quality of 'going to work' for a baseball player - who is at it 9 months a year, goes beyond the win/loss record. The Tigers have always prided themselves on making the team a nice place to work Unless that changes (and in a new regime it certainly might be changing), I don't think you are going to see guys running for the exits just over the team's record. Cases like Max, where I think he wanted to be out of JVs shadow would be another matter.

Agreed. It's far from a sure thing that a contender would even offer him a big contract. Good teams are good because they already have good players. More than likely, it would be a team not unlike the Tigers prior to 2016, where adding a guy like upton is enough to get you into the contending conversation. And then who knows how long the new team will be good. He can look at his current team as an example of that. 

For all we know, he may think the tigers have as much a chance at winning in 2019 or 2020 as any other team out there that is willing to sign him for a lot of money. 

I am leaning toward him opting in. 

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12 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

don't disagree that he might leave if thinks he can get more. I am less persuaded he will worry that much about the win/loss record of the team that makes the better offer.

Right, I don't think he would opt out to go to a contender if it meant there would be a big pay cut.  

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He will opt in. 22 mil per year is his upper limit and 6 year deals are very rare. He does not care JD was traded  only that the return was low indicating a soft market for outfielder like him.

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10 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

He will opt in. 22 mil per year is his upper limit and 6 year deals are very rare. He does not care JD was traded  only that the return was low indicating a soft market for outfielder like him.

Agreed. Why would he opt out and take the risk that he would have to sign, say, a 4 year $75 Million contract.

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2 hours ago, tiger337 said:

Right, I don't think he would opt out to go to a contender if it meant there would be a big pay cut.  

But for the same money, he would probably prefer being on a winner.

He has to be see how many corner outfielders will be on the be market. The less there are, the better the chance a team will bite. But how many teams out there even give big money to a player? A  handful. If a rich team needs a LF,  it would be a nice match.

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41 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

He will opt in. 22 mil per year is his upper limit and 6 year deals are very rare. He does not care JD was traded  only that the return was low indicating a soft market for outfielder like him.

Not a fair comparison. JD brought back less because he's a rental. Sure, if he were under contract for 88 million dollars, nobody would have wanted him. But if JD was under control for 1 or 2 more seasons, the return would have been better. I would like to think if he was under team control, he would never have been traded. But that's wishful thinking.

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If it is me, I wouldn't opt out unless I was pretty sure I could get 10% more salary or extra year(s).

I wouldn't bear the risk if I thought I would merely match, even with a better team.

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I don't think he'd get significantly more than 4/88, so if I were him I'd opt-in. The 20 team no-trade clause would give me enough assurance that I'd still be playing somewhere I want to if the Tigers do trade me. Maybe if I get on a mad tear the final couple months I think I can get a lot more than 4/88 and that would change my thinking.

This assumes he likes it in Detroit, which all indications seem to affirm.

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I'm not so sure he would get much more than 4/88 but even if he doesn't, he may be willing to sacrifice a bit financially to play someplace else.  I mean as a competitor would you want to waste your prime years on a team that is clearly rebuilding and has all but said that they don't plan on competing for 2-3 seasons? 

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I would opt out because I'm already rich and playing for a probably losing team in Detroit doesn't sound like fun. Of course, this is assuming it's me and not Upton who may have close friends on the team or love Detroit or have a crippling addiction to energy drinks and mail order quesadillas which have burned through his savings. Who knows

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How many people take less money to change jobs?

I get players are rich and the utility of an extra $5 million isn't the same to you or me, but I'd say at least 80% of players take the biggest deal available to them.

The exceptions seem to be largely limited to guys going for a championship on a 1-year deal or are dead set on playing in a particular city.

Not sure that would apply here.  At a minimum Upton would want 4 years.

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