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2017 Trade Deadline Thread

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9 minutes ago, diaspora04 said:

In my estimation, ticket prices have approximately tripled since 2006.  For that reason alone, I believe that a tear down would result in a very significant decrease in attendance and revenue. 

4 minutes ago, kdog said:

And their local tv deal is coming up within a few years. 

We need to be realistic with payroll. Gate revenue will be going down due to not winning, and we're not going to have the leverage on our next tv deal that we might have had a couple years ago, when we and rights buying were at it's peaks. It's speculation, but compared to other markets we might be behind there.

But payroll isn't a huge problem, as I don't think the major FAs would end up here anyways. We should still be able to spend a bit around the fringes, especially in 2019, which is typically the best way to go in FA.

I do hope they start trying to extend more of their young players. Fulmer is obvious. And they should really either extend Nick or trade him while he has a couple years control remaining.

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http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20170707/blog003/633351/tigers-tv-ratings-decline-team-struggles

 

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The struggling Detroit Tigers have seen their local TV ratings fall by more 20 percent versus last season.

After 70 games — the total aired by Fox Sports Detroit through June 25 — the Tigers averaged a 5.57 household rating, down from a 7.08 rating at the same point last season, according to Nielsen Co. viewership data for the Detroit market. That's a 21.3 percent ratings decline year over year.

Still, despite the tumble, the Tigers' local TV ratings still rank fifth in Major League Baseball, according to FSD. If they continue to play sub-.500 ball, and begin to trade away stars for future talent, that ranking could slip further. Five years ago, Detroit led all of baseball in local TV ratings with a 9.59 rating. They're now down 42 percent from that number.

The local TV data is one of the litmus tests for a team's popularity. Another is attendance, and as Crain's reported earlier this week, the Tigers are averaging 29,731 fans per game, their lowest attendance average since 2005. They're not bad numbers, but they're evidence of an ongoing decline in fan interest in the Tigers since 2013.

 

I think one thing in their favor is the rebounding of the stadium district. Potentially, if the area becomes a hot spot for night life the Tigers could see attendance boosted as a place to be regardless of the quality of the team. It wouldn't replace all the attendance lost from the 3 million plus season gates, but I don't think it will be back to the early 2000 years either of under 2 million.

 

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4 minutes ago, rhino said:

http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20170707/blog003/633351/tigers-tv-ratings-decline-team-struggles

 

 

I think one thing in their favor is the rebounding of the stadium district. Potentially, if the area becomes a hot spot for night life the Tigers could see attendance boosted as a place to be regardless of the quality of the team. It wouldn't replace all the attendance lost from the 3 million plus season gates, but I don't think it will be back to the early 2000 years either of under 2 million.

 

Good link. Says FSD deal expires in 2012:

Quote

Fox Sports Detroit, owned by based Fox Broadcasting Co. in Los Angeles, has a 10-year, $500 million contract with the Tigers announced in 2008 and is believed to expire in 2021. It's not known if talks have begun on a new deal or extension, or if the Tigers could opt to launch their own network.

I'm sure they'll want to have a good team approaching that date. 2020 seems reasonable.

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17 minutes ago, rhino said:

http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20170707/blog003/633351/tigers-tv-ratings-decline-team-struggles

I think one thing in their favor is the rebounding of the stadium district. Potentially, if the area becomes a hot spot for night life the Tigers could see attendance boosted as a place to be regardless of the quality of the team. It wouldn't replace all the attendance lost from the 3 million plus season gates, but I don't think it will be back to the early 2000 years either of under 2 million.

No doubt losing is 99% of the fall off in TV ratings, but I also don't think it would hurt if they would settle on one telecast paradigm and stick with it. Right now I just don't think they are very good. They are doing too many remotes where the timing is poor and the production value questionable. Between the booth, the stands remote, Monroe cruising round the camera wells, Cain going to who knows where, they don't seem to be sharp about when they are on the mic or off and they should settle on one team and be done with it. Going back and forth from Gibson to Allen is like whiplash twice a week. The whole FSD Tiger  enterprise smacks of too many cooks in the kitchen right now.

The point about the district is a great one though. In terms of live attendance there is really no reason the Tigers can't be become what the Cubs are. It's getting really nice down around the ballpark..

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6 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

No doubt losing is 99% of the fall off in TV ratings, but I also don't think it would hurt if they would settle on one telecast paradigm and stick with it. Right now I just don't think they are very good. They are doing too many remotes where the timing is poor and the production value questionable. Between the booth, the stands remote, Monroe cruising round the camera wells, Cain going to who knows where, they don't seem to be sharp about when they are on the mic or off and they should settle on one team and be done with it. Going back and forth from Gibson to Allen is like whiplash twice a week. The whole FSN Tiger  enterprise smacks of too many cooks in the kitchen right now.

The point about the district is a great one though. In terms of live attendance there is really no reason the Tigers can't be become what the Cubs are. It's getting really nice down around the ballpark..

The broadcast makes me think of a company where the boss hired all his friends, realized they don't know what they're doing, but can't fire anyone because they're his friends. So he gives them made up jobs where they can pretend they're contributing. They're not bad guys, no reason to hurt their feelings. 

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3 hours ago, Shelton said:

Yeah. More than anything I think it indicates how much they need to be focused on getting some good position players into the system. 

If forced to rank position players only, I would probably go something like this:

castellanos

JD

Avila

upton

Stewart

Cabrera

Machado

Kinsler

Gerber

Iglesias

Mahtook

jacoby

mccann

romine

every other player

victor

 

 

Ouch. With pitchers, you have Fulmer, Norris, Boyd, Manning, Faedo, Funkhouser and probably a dozen guys in the minors that at least project as decent relievers if things go well.

Hitting, you have very little 2+ years down the road. An aging Miggy, JUp (?), Machado, Stewart, Gerber, Jones, Mahtook, Hicks, Hill (???). You might be able to put together a good defensive OF from that, but where are the bats??

I'm not sure what the plan is to handle this. I guess if the pitching comes through you look to FA.

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1 minute ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Ouch. With pitchers, you have Fulmer, Norris, Boyd, Manning, Faedo, Funkhouser and probably a dozen guys in the minors that at least project as decent relievers if things go well.

Hitting, you have very little 2+ years down the road. An aging Miggy, JUp (?), Machado, Stewart, Gerber, Jones, Mahtook, Hicks, Hill (???). You might be able to put together a good defensive OF from that, but where are the bats??

I'm not sure what the plan is to handle this. I guess if the pitching comes through you look to FA.

FA got the Tigers in the mess they are in now.  They must do it right, and fix it right.  FA is for sissies.

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27 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

The broadcast makes me think of a company where the boss hired all his friends, realized they don't know what they're doing, but can't fire anyone because they're his friends. So he gives them made up jobs where they can pretend they're contributing. They're not bad guys, no reason to hurt their feelings. 

CMo is really the only guy I don't get much from. Allen I suppose too, but that's more since he's been around forever.

Keating and Kane are pretty good, Gibby is as good as his voice allows him to be. The rest seem to be there to get part time hours.

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3 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

FA got the Tigers in the mess they are in now.  They must do it right, and fix it right.  FA is for sissies.

They're not going to have enough bats 2 years from now tho to fill out the team, unless they get a prospect haul somewhere along the line that we're not expecting. I'm not saying sign Prince Fielder or Justin Upton, I'm saying sign Rajai Davis or Alex Avila.

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Just now, Who is the Drizzle? said:

They're not going to have enough bats 2 years from now tho to fill out the team, unless they get a prospect haul somewhere along the line that we're not expecting. I'm not saying sign Prince Fielder, I'm saying sign Rajai Davis or Alex Avila.

They might get a good prospect for Avila.  He'd be a FA I would be interested in at the end of the year (if the price is right); but his price will go up.  His value will never again be as high as it is now.

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Just now, cruzer1 said:

They might get a good prospect for Avila.  He'd be a FA I would be interested in at the end of the year (if the price is right); but his price will go up.  His value will never again be as high as it is now.

He'll be dealt. But I don't think trading him and JD and JWil fixes the problem to the point we can ignore FA for the next 6 years.

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Just now, Who is the Drizzle? said:

He'll be dealt. But I don't think trading him and JD and JWil fixes the problem to the point we can ignore FA for the next 6 years.

I figure they'll get a nice haul at this trade deadline.  I think JWil will especially bring a nice piece or two.  Look at the Nats, they are desperate, and could overpay for him.

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12 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

FA got the Tigers in the mess they are in now.  They must do it right, and fix it right.  FA is for sissies.

Without FA they would have been a lot worse.

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1 minute ago, sabretooth said:

Without FA they would have been a lot worse.

They wouldn't have to sell off assets.  They've handed out too many bad contracts to older players.

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1 minute ago, cruzer1 said:

They wouldn't have to sell off assets.  They've handed out too many bad contracts to older players.

They wouldn't have assets in the first place to sell off without the FA.  Those assets might enable them to acquire some minor league talent that their system has been incapable of drafting and developing....you just said in a post to WITD above that you expect a nice haul....from trading those expensive acquisitions, I presume.

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5 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

FA got the Tigers in the mess they are in now.  They must do it right, and fix it right.  FA is for sissies.

 

2 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

They're not going to have enough bats 2 years from now tho to fill out the team, unless they get a prospect haul somewhere along the line that we're not expecting. I'm not saying sign Prince Fielder or Justin Upton, I'm saying sign Rajai Davis or Alex Avila.

FA did get them in this mess, but part of it was trading away the young assets they did have and giving up high draft picks to sign free agents. And the other part was signing multiple scrubs to "modest" free agent deals. 

If lowe and pelfrey were not on the payroll, things would be better. That would have given them a chance tonstay below the tax. Maybe they don't waste 6 million on krod this year. Maybe they flip Iglesias and go with machado. Then they would be looking at being able to give JD a QO. 

The other problems are Sanchez and Victor. But Sanchez is suddenly pitching like the guy you thought you would have in 2017 back when the deal was signed. 

FA isn't bad. You just can't afford for them to be busts. I don't know if the answer is davis and Avila types. More often than not that is wasted money it seems. 

We haven't seen their books so it's hard to know what level of payroll is sustainable. There is probably a sweet spot for profit that earns you more money by being cheap and winning 70 games vs spending modestly and winning 81. The problem with constantly tanking and being cheap is that it can take a decade before the cheap prospects pan out enough to make you good again. 

Anyway, I'm totally fine with punting on 2018, but I wouldn't mind seeing them be a player in FA with an eye toward 2019. You could sign a guy like JD this offseason, and if upton opts in, you've got an outside chance at playoffs anyway. The Sanchez and Victor deals will melt away prior to 2019. Revenues will keep going up. 

FA is not for sissies as long as you continue to deal your tradable assets and hold on to your prospects. In that case, FA is just money, and I don't really care about Chris Ilitch and his profit. 

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1 minute ago, Shelton said:

 

FA did get them in this mess, but part of it was trading away the young assets they did have and giving up high draft picks to sign free agents. And the other part was signing multiple scrubs to "modest" free agent deals. 

If lowe and pelfrey were not on the payroll, things would be better. That would have given them a chance tonstay below the tax. Maybe they don't waste 6 million on krod this year. Maybe they flip Iglesias and go with machado. Then they would be looking at being able to give JD a QO. 

The other problems are Sanchez and Victor. But Sanchez is suddenly pitching like the guy you thought you would have in 2017 back when the deal was signed. 

FA isn't bad. You just can't afford for them to be busts. I don't know if the answer is davis and Avila types. More often than not that is wasted money it seems. 

We haven't seen their books so it's hard to know what level of payroll is sustainable. There is probably a sweet spot for profit that earns you more money by being cheap and winning 70 games vs spending modestly and winning 81. The problem with constantly tanking and being cheap is that it can take a decade before the cheap prospects pan out enough to make you good again. 

Anyway, I'm totally fine with punting on 2018, but I wouldn't mind seeing them be a player in FA with an eye toward 2019. You could sign a guy like JD this offseason, and if upton opts in, you've got an outside chance at playoffs anyway. The Sanchez and Victor deals will melt away prior to 2019. Revenues will keep going up. 

FA is not for sissies as long as you continue to deal your tradable assets and hold on to your prospects. In that case, FA is just money, and I don't really care about Chris Ilitch and his profit. 

I agree with all of this except the first part where FA got us into this mess by harming our minor league system.  I admit that I have not tracked who was drafted with the draft picks we traded away, but in the main the minor leaguers we traded were not that good.  Suarez is the only total bust trade of a prospect that I can recall.  The Travis trade **might** be a bust if Travis can stay on the field for a half of a season.

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I don't think they can have their cake and eat it too.  They need to let JD go so they can move Stewart in his spot, imo.  I'm hoping Upton opts out, opening up more money so that proper moves are made in the future.  I think it makes no sense to block a guy like Stewart, offensively he seems ready to hit and he is what he is defensively.  He'll be 24 next year, and should be up in a full time role next year.  He's also doing a nice job vs. lefties.

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2 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I agree with all of this except the first part where FA got us into this mess by harming our minor league system.  I admit that I have not tracked who was drafted with the draft picks we traded away, but in the main the minor leaguers we traded were not that good.  Suarez is the only total bust trade of a prospect that I can recall.  The Travis trade **might** be a bust if Travis can stay on the field for a half of a season.

Ray wasn't drafted but is top 50 fangraphs trade value. Knebel was drafted and is amazing this year. Both all-stars.

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3 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

I don't think they can have their cake and eat it too.  They need to let JD go so they can move Stewart in his spot, imo.  I'm hoping Upton opts out, opening up more money so that proper moves are made in the future.  I think it makes no sense to block a guy like Stewart, offensively he seems ready to hit and he is what he is defensively.  He'll be 24 next year, and should be up in a full time role next year.  He's also doing a nice job vs. lefties.

Upton and JD won't both be on the team next season, unless JV is somehow dealt. Stewart won't be blocked by anything, other than his defense.

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1 minute ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Upton and JD won't both be on the team next season, unless JV is somehow dealt. Stewart won't be blocked by anything, other than his defense.

Its up to Upton if he's on the team or not.

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14 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

I figure they'll get a nice haul at this trade deadline.  I think JWil will especially bring a nice piece or two.  Look at the Nats, they are desperate, and could overpay for him.

I sure hope so. Realistically tho, you are looking at Miggy, maybe JUp, some B-level outfield prospects, and Machado. I doubt you're getting enough to fill out the lineup.

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1 minute ago, cruzer1 said:

Its up to Upton if he's on the team or not.

I know. JD is getting traded. If Upton opts-in, that's it. If he opts-out, then maybe you see the Tigers go after JD.

But there's no way the Tigers re-sign JD with Upton on the books.

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2 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

I sure hope so. Realistically tho, you are looking at Miggy, maybe JUp, some B-level outfield prospects, and Machado. I doubt you're getting enough to fill out the lineup.

It won't matter.  Just use filler guys like Hicks and Den Dekker.  Heck, they can even bring up Infante for s/g.

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Just now, cruzer1 said:

It won't matter.  Just use filler guys like Hicks and Den Dekker.  Heck, they can even bring up Infante for s/g.

My scenario is 2020 if the young pitching is good enough to contend, you don't want to waste that by having AAA roster filler for 162 games at multiple positions. For next year, I'm okay with such filler.

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