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2017 Trade Deadline Thread

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11 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Well if we're talking 2 guys like Burrows and Manning, that'd be great. If we're talking like Joe Jimenez and Michael Gerber, easy pass. That's who I think of with B prospects.

Dombrowski was right about one thing, you only have 25 spots on the team that matters. Yes he operated with too little depth, but the the fact is that you win by having above average players at your MLB club. In general, 2 Bs don't really make an A when it comes to putting players on the MLB roster who are differentially better than other teams.

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6 hours ago, Stanley68 said:

If we hang on to a couple of guys like Kinsler, Upton and JV but trade or lose JD, Justin Wilson and Avila, where does that leave us next off season? With a worse team than we have now.

You don't move prospects to prop up a team like we'll have and if i'm ownership I'm not investing much money either when our payroll will still be north of 150M i think. Nobody is suggesting giving guys away but trying to rebuild on the fly is a very low percentage gamble.

 

Will someone please call Ken Holland and tell him this? 

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2 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Well if we're talking 2 guys like Burrows and Manning, that'd be great. If we're talking like Joe Jimenez and Michael Gerber, easy pass. That's who I think of with B prospects.

Yeah, that was my thinking too.  

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3 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Well if we're talking 2 guys like Burrows and Manning, that'd be great. If we're talking like Joe Jimenez and Michael Gerber, easy pass. That's who I think of with B prospects.

B players are typically guys on the 50-55 out of 80 scouting scale with medium to low risk. Sometimes they may have 1 plus tool and rarely 2. Most B rated players are supposed to be regulars in the Majors. A's are the All-star/Super star/Ace pitchers type prospects like Urias, Bellinger, Verdungo ect... I'd definately take 2 B rated prospects for JV.... (Someone like our own Christian Stewart is a B level prospect...)

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A few weekend takes

 

Quote

The Astros, Yankees and Cubs have the farm systems to get a starting pitcher, but there is no Sale or David Price out there. The Cubs have called almost every team to see who might be available; they asked the Tigers about Michael Fullmer and/or Daniel Norris, but made it clear they had no interest in Justin Verlander, and as one Cub official said, “no one is going to pay $70M for him, even though he may still be a very good pitcher.”

 

There may be fancy names. The Tigers may pay $40+M for a prospect or two in a Justin Verlander deal. Then again, others may look at the All Star rosters—and additions—and see four name that were trade deadline acquisitions, beyond Price.

On July 31, 2010, the Indians traded Jake Westbrook in a three way deal and got Cory Kluber from the Padres.

On July 31, 2014, the Red Sox traded Andrew Miller to the Orioles for Eduardo Rodriguez.

On July 31, 2015, the Tigers traded Cespedes to the Tigers for Michael Fulmer.

On July 31, 2015, the Dodgers engineered a three team, multi-player deal (starting with Hector Olivera) and got Alex Wood, who will be pitching Tuesday night.

“This process makes for good discussion,” says Falvey, “but it involves a lot more gray area than people make it sound.”

So if, Tuesday night, Kluber and Wood are matched up at the same time, go back and find all the names in the deadline deals that landed them in Cleveland and Los Angeles. A lot of gray area, red ink and future department store Santas.

Gammons

 

Quote

But the case I would make to at least examine Martinez/Fulmer is this: The Cardinals and, especially, the Tigers are not positioned to play for a championship in, say, the next three years — coinciding with prime years for both Martinez and Fulmer and heavy wear and tear on their arms.

Both teams could use an infusion of farm talent. Without elite starting pitchers in the market, the Cardinals and Tigers can set the bar at north of what the White Sox got for Chris Sale — two elite prospects and two very good ones. Because both Martinez (under contract from 2018-23 for $81 million) and Fulmer (not even arbitration eligible for likely two more years) have such long-term control, not just contenders would be bidding on them. Clubs with deep farm systems such as Atlanta and Philadelphia would be in, and contenders with deep systems such as the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers might make overwhelming offers to get their hands on this kind of starter.

Joel Sherman

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I know this won't be a common or popular opinion around here, but I would listen to requests for Fulmer.  The required return would be significant.  But I wouldn't call him, nor anyone else, untouchable.

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8 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I know this won't be a common or popular opinion around here, but I would listen to requests for Fulmer.  The required return would be significant.  But I wouldn't call him, nor anyone else, untouchable.

If you want yuuuuuuuge returns, Norris and Fulmer will get you something.

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I need a point clarified on Verlanders option year:

Justin Verlander rhp
7 years/$180M (2013-19), plus 2020 option

  • 7 years/$180M (2013-19), plus 2020 vesting option
    • signed extension with Detroit 3/29/13
    • replaced final two years of previous deal
    • 13:$20M, 14:$20M, 15:$28M, 16:$28M, 17:$28M, 18:$28M, 19:$28M, 20:$22M vesting option
    • 2020 option guaranteed with top 5 finish in 2019 Cy Young vote 
    • award bonuses, including $0.1M for All-Star selection
    • no-trade protection

That reads to me like a team option for 22M if JV finishes in the top 5 of the Cy Young and if he doesn't the team can refuse the option?

Why are teams thinking of a 70M obligation when it is really 56M? If he finishes top 5 he would certainly be worth 22M.

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, rhino said:

I need a point clarified on Verlanders option year:

Justin Verlander rhp
7 years/$180M (2013-19), plus 2020 option

  • 7 years/$180M (2013-19), plus 2020 vesting option
    • signed extension with Detroit 3/29/13
    • replaced final two years of previous deal
    • 13:$20M, 14:$20M, 15:$28M, 16:$28M, 17:$28M, 18:$28M, 19:$28M, 20:$22M vesting option
    • 2020 option guaranteed with top 5 finish in 2019 Cy Young vote 
    • award bonuses, including $0.1M for All-Star selection
    • no-trade protection

That reads to me like a team option for 22M if JV finishes in the top 5 of the Cy Young and if he doesn't the team can refuse the option?

Why are teams thinking of a 70M obligation when it is really 56M? If he finishes top 5 he would certainly be worth 22M.

 

 

 

The 70 million is for 2018 and 2019, plus approximately 14 million left of his 2017 contract. On July 31, the total guaranteed to verlander will be about 63 million. 

It's not a bad deal if verlander proves he can pitch like something resembling an ace.

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I think the best Verlander deal will materialize after the season. But he needs a few months post -AS of decent numbers.

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1 hour ago, Casimir said:

I know this won't be a common or popular opinion around here, but I would listen to requests for Fulmer.  The required return would be significant.  But I wouldn't call him, nor anyone else, untouchable.

You build around guys like Fulmer not trade them away. Even if the article suggest and were not ready to compete, Fulmer would be 27 and with two years (at least) of team control left.

Nobody outside of the Yankees gutting their farm system has enough to pry him from me. 

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5 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

You build around guys like Fulmer not trade them away. Even if the article suggest and were not ready to compete, Fulmer would be 27 and with two years (at least) of team control left.

Nobody outside of the Yankees gutting their farm system has enough to pry him from me. 

exactly. Any GM that admits he can't have a better team in 5 yrs should be fired right now, and Fulmer will still be near his prime years in 5 yrs.

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5 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

You build around guys like Fulmer not trade them away. Even if the article suggest and were not ready to compete, Fulmer would be 27 and with two years (at least) of team control left.

Nobody outside of the Yankees gutting their farm system has enough to pry him from me. 

Yeah, there isn't any rush to trade a guy like Fulmer. His trade value is very likely to remain high for years. While it doesn't seem like the Tigers will be contenders for at least another few years, things can change so quickly in baseball.

The team can turn into a contender ahead of schedule depending on how the young pitchers progress. Just wait it out. 

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13 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

You build around guys like Fulmer not trade them away. Even if the article suggest and were not ready to compete, Fulmer would be 27 and with two years (at least) of team control left.

Nobody outside of the Yankees gutting their farm system has enough to pry him from me. 

Again, I am listening.  I ain't shopping.  If someone wants to offer 3 of significant prospects in exchange for 1 right now performer, you have to consider it, right?  It might just so happen that the requesting team overvalues Fulmer and undervalues what they are willing to offer.

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2 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Again, I am listening.  I ain't shopping.  If someone wants to offer 3 of significant prospects in exchange for 1 right now performer, you have to consider it, right?  It might just so happen that the requesting team overvalues Fulmer and undervalues what they are willing to offer.

I think so.

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3 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Again, I am listening.  I ain't shopping.  If someone wants to offer 3 of significant prospects in exchange for 1 right now performer, you have to consider it, right?  It might just so happen that the requesting team overvalues Fulmer and undervalues what they are willing to offer.

I guess I'm in the boat where listening is not worth the time. Cause nobody is going to match the price. The whole listening works in theory, on paper, but in reality not so much. Are teams gonna listen on Tom Brady, Sydney Crosby? Nope. Fulmer falls in that boat -- not in star power or championships -- but teams aren't gonna meet my price. 

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1 minute ago, Casimir said:

Again, I am listening.  I ain't shopping.  If someone wants to offer 3 of significant prospects in exchange for 1 right now performer, you have to consider it, right?

I don't think so even at three. Obviously there is price for everything, but Fulmer is developing into a top of the rotation guy. I'd put the odds at finding one Fulmer at more like one in about 5 top prospects. Get into that range (and like KL2 said, no one is likely to go there) then I'll be listening.

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I would rather have 1 A than 2 Bs, FWIW.

The team that gets the best player in a trade usually wins the trade.

Maybin and Miller were considered A prospects at the time they were dealt, FWIW.

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1 minute ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I guess I'm in the boat where listening is not worth the time. Cause nobody is going to match the price. The whole listening works in theory, on paper, but in reality not so much. Are teams gonna listen on Tom Brady, Sydney Crosby? Nope. Fulmer falls in that boat -- not in star power or championships -- but teams aren't gonna meet my price. 

Oh, it's probably not likely to happen.  But it's just due diligence.  Someone contacts the Tigers.  The Tigers respond with the expected ransom.  The discussion continues until it doesn't or a deal is done.  I would think teams have an idea its going to require a haul to obtain Fulmer.  These GMs aren't (complete) idiots.

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On Fulmer, its likely impossible to make a trade work, but of course the general rule is that you should be willing to make any trade where you get more value than you gave up.

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1 hour ago, Casimir said:

Oh, it's probably not likely to happen.  But it's just due diligence.  Someone contacts the Tigers.  The Tigers respond with the expected ransom.  The discussion continues until it doesn't or a deal is done.  I would think teams have an idea its going to require a haul to obtain Fulmer.  These GMs aren't (complete) idiots.

somebody calls about Fulmer, the best thing that happens is the conversation turns into a deal for someone else. So I guess if I'm Avila, I'm not going to say anyone is untouchable because sure, you want that guy to call anyway. But it just goes to the truth that you generally don't want to put all your cards on the table before you start a negotiation. Al doesn't need  to tell anyone what the bottom line of his untouchable list is.

Of course MTS doesn't operate under those constraints!

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I think a gm with more job security(not Avila) would entertain a Fulmer deal. With ownership uncertainty, I'm not sure the org has any kind of appetite for that kind of deal.

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22 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I guess I'm in the boat where listening is not worth the time. Cause nobody is going to match the price. The whole listening works in theory, on paper, but in reality not so much. Are teams gonna listen on Tom Brady, Sydney Crosby? Nope. Fulmer falls in that boat -- not in star power or championships -- but teams aren't gonna meet my price. 

I'm in this boat, too. I don't think it's worth the time or the effort to bother trying to negotiate a deal involving a player that is the exact type of player you need to have when you are a rebuilding team. 

A succesful rebuild doesn't mean putting together a top five farm system.

Fulmer is the guy you trade in a couple years if the rebuild is behind schedule. This thing doesn't have to happen all at once. 

JD, JW, Kinsler, and Iglesias should be the guys like are spending their time on trying to find deals for. 

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