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Deleterious

2017 Win Share Value

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Time for the annual win share post.  

There were 1,254 win shares in the league last year and 486 different players earned a portion of one.  The league paid those combined players a total of $2,837,352,725 in salary.  So that means the average win share cost teams $2,262,641 last year.

What I'm doing using James Harden as an example.  He made $26,540,100 last year and produced an even 15 win shares.  Multiply the 15 in shares by the average price of a win share and you get (15 * 2,262,641) = $33,939,636.  So according to that,  Harden outperformed his contract last year by $7,399,526.

Here you can see the top 20 value contracts in the NBA last year.  This doesn't necessarily mean t hey are the best players.  It just means their contracts are the best value for the output they provide.  As you can see, this is dominated by cheap rookie contracts.

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Here is a top 20 with rookies removed.  I might have missed one or two.  As you can see by the #51 by Kemba Walker, 30 of the top 50 were rookies.

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And of course the 20 worse value contracts last year.  Some of these guys were hurt.

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If you want to play around with this you can find the spreadsheet at the link below.  The Final tab is the one you want to play with.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LgkMqj-8k-LdiZMsrnKArHOhoH0G3q295W89NNjJQ_U/edit?usp=sharing

 

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Time for the Pistons!  Lets get right to the crying.

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The good news is, Ish, Marcus, Baynes, and Beno were not on rookie deals and still out performed their contract value.  The bad news, every other player minus Reggie B. and Pope (Both on rookie deals) didn't perform up to their salary.

They rookies are really concerning.  On insanely cheap contracts, if you can't put up a positive number, no good.  Gbinije, Hilliard, and Ellenson didn't play enough time to accumulate win shares, so they sort of get a pass.  

SJ is a different story.  He played plenty of minutes to accumulate win shares, he just played poorly, especially on offense.  FWIW, he was a negative number last year as well.

Speaking of last years numbers.  Andre was a huge positive last year, but he was on a rookie deal then.  People might think Reggie's number is due to his injury, and it probably did inflate it some.  But he was a negative last year as well.  Harris was a negative last year.  In face, the only positives from last year were KCP (Rookie deal), Morris, and Drummond.

Last week someone asked how you get capped out and only win 37 games.  This, this is how.

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you do it by drafting in the 8 to 15 range every year.  and then being bad at it.

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It's been rumored that CJ Miles is a Pistons free agent target.

His WSV was $9M. So anything under that would be considered value.

But you can't really go off of that. He might be more valuable to a team like Detroit who needs shooting.

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The free agent list and values.

Spoiler
Player Team OWS  DWS WS WS/48 Salary Win Share Value Difference
Paul Millsap ATL 2.6 3.8 6.4 0.132 $20,072,033 $14,480,907 ($5,591,126)
Derrick Rose NYK 2.4 0.6 3 0.068 $21,323,250 $6,787,925 ($14,535,325)
Danilo Gallinari DEN 6.2 0.7 6.9 0.154 $15,050,000 $15,612,228 $562,228
Jeff Green ORL -0.2 0.9 0.7 0.022 $15,000,000 $1,583,849 ($13,416,151)
Manu Ginobili SAS 0.6 2.4 3 0.11 $14,000,000 $6,787,925 ($7,212,075)
Serge Ibaka TOR 2.5 2.6 5.1 0.101 $12,250,000 $11,539,473 ($710,527)
Amir Johnson BOS 2.9 2.1 5 0.149 $12,000,000 $11,313,209 ($686,791)
Kyle Lowry TOR 7.8 2.3 10.1 0.216 $12,000,000 $22,852,681 $10,852,681
Andre Iguodala GSW 4.1 2.9 6.9 0.167 $11,131,368 $15,612,228 $4,480,860
Tyreke Evans SAC -0.2 0.9 0.7 0.045 $10,661,286 $1,583,849 ($9,077,437)
Stephen Curry GSW 8.6 3.9 12.6 0.229 $12,112,359 $28,509,286 $16,396,927
Jrue Holiday NOP 1.2 2.6 3.8 0.084 $11,286,518 $8,598,039 ($2,688,479)
Zach Randolph MEM 0.8 2.4 3.2 0.086 $10,361,445 $7,240,454 ($3,120,991)
Tiago Splitter PHI 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.072 $8,550,000 $226,264 ($8,323,736)
Taj Gibson OKC 1.6 2.5 4 0.098 $8,950,000 $9,050,567 $100,567
Jeff Teague IND 5.7 2.4 8.1 0.146 $8,800,000 $18,327,398 $9,527,398
Ersan Ilyasova ATL 1.8 2.3 4.1 0.091 $8,400,000 $9,276,831 $876,831
Anthony Tolliver SAC 1.5 0.8 2.3 0.075 $8,000,000 $5,204,076 ($2,795,924)
Sergio Rodriguez PHI -0.3 1 0.7 0.022 $8,000,000 $1,583,849 ($6,416,151)
George Hill UTH 4 1.9 5.9 0.182 $8,000,000 $13,349,586 $5,349,586
J.J. Redick LAC 3.3 1.5 4.8 0.105 $7,377,500 $10,860,680 $3,483,180
Jodie Meeks ORL 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.073 $6,540,000 $2,488,906 ($4,051,094)
Patrick Patterson TOR 1.7 1.6 3.3 0.1 $6,050,000 $7,466,718 $1,416,718
Kyle Korver CLE 2.3 1.3 3.7 0.101 $5,239,437 $8,371,774 $3,132,337
Shaun Livingston GSW 1.1 1.6 2.6 0.094 $5,782,450 $5,882,868 $100,418
Nikola Mirotic CHI 1.3 2.5 3.8 0.108 $5,782,450 $8,598,039 $2,815,589
P.J. Tucker TOR 1.4 2.2 3.6 0.078 $5,300,000 $8,145,510 $2,845,510
Darren Collison SAC 3.1 0.8 3.9 0.091 $5,229,454 $8,824,303 $3,594,849
Tony Allen MEM 0.2 2.9 3.1 0.077 $5,505,618 $7,014,189 $1,508,571
Roy Hibbert DEN 1 0.8 1.8 0.13 $5,000,000 $4,072,755 ($927,245)
Jonas Jerebko BOS 0.8 1.3 2.1 0.081 $5,000,000 $4,751,548 ($248,452)
Otto Porter WAS 6.5 2.9 9.4 0.173 $5,893,981 $21,268,832 $15,374,851
C.J. Miles IND 2.7 1.4 4 0.109 $4,583,450 $9,050,567 $4,467,117
Patty Mills SAS 2.8 2.2 5.1 0.139 $3,578,948 $11,539,473 $7,960,525
Vince Carter MEM 1.9 2.1 4 0.106 $4,264,057 $9,050,567 $4,786,510
Kris Humphries ATL 0.6 1.1 1.6 0.115 $4,000,000 $3,620,227 ($379,773)
Udonis Haslem MIA 0 0.2 0.2 0.069 $4,000,000 $452,528 ($3,547,472)
James Johnson MIA 1.9 3.2 5.1 0.117 $4,000,000 $11,539,473 $7,539,473
Thabo Sefolosha ATL 0.6 2.7 3.3 0.098 $3,850,000 $7,466,718 $3,616,718
Alex Len PHX 1.2 1.7 3 0.091 $4,823,621 $6,787,925 $1,964,304
Nick Collison OKC 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.144 $3,750,000 $905,057 ($2,844,943)
Nerlens Noel DAL 2.1 1.9 4 0.182 $4,384,490 $9,050,567 $4,666,077
Brandon Rush MIN 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.019 $3,500,000 $905,057 ($2,594,943)
Bojan Bogdanovic WAS 2 0.9 2.9 0.067 $3,730,653 $6,561,661 $2,831,008
Anthony Morrow CHI 0.7 0.5 1.2 0.083 $3,488,000 $2,715,170 ($772,830)
Ben McLemore SAC -0.1 0.5 0.4 0.015 $4,008,882 $905,057 ($3,103,825)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DET 2 2.5 4.5 0.086 $3,678,319 $10,181,888 $6,503,569
Dante Cunningham NOP 1.4 1.6 3 0.088 $2,978,250 $6,787,925 $3,809,675
Dion Waiters MIA 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.057 $2,898,000 $3,620,227 $722,227
Dewayne Dedmon SAS 2.2 3 5.2 0.188 $2,898,000 $11,765,737 $8,867,737
Nene Hilario HOU 2.5 1.6 4.1 0.165 $2,898,000 $9,276,831 $6,378,831
Zaza Pachulia GSW 2.2 2.5 4.7 0.177 $2,898,000 $10,634,416 $7,736,416
Trey Burke WAS 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.036 $3,386,598 $1,131,321 ($2,255,277)
Aaron Brooks IND -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.016 $2,700,000 $678,793 ($2,021,207)
Michael Carter-Williams CHI -1 1.3 0.2 0.013 $3,183,526 $452,528 ($2,730,998)
Randy Foye BKN -0.6 0.7 0.2 0.006 $2,500,000 $452,528 ($2,047,472)
Shelvin Mack UTH -0.1 1.5 1.4 0.054 $2,433,334 $3,167,698 $734,364
Kelly Olynyk BOS 2.2 1.9 4.1 0.127 $3,094,014 $9,276,831 $6,182,817
Luc Mbah a Moute LAC 1.3 1.8 3.1 0.084 $2,203,000 $7,014,189 $4,811,189
Shabazz Muhammad MIN 2.5 0.2 2.7 0.086 $3,046,299 $6,109,133 $3,062,834
Joe Ingles UTH 2 3 5 0.122 $2,250,000 $11,313,209 $9,063,209
Adreian Payne MIN 0 0.2 0.2 0.086 $2,022,240 $452,528 ($1,569,712)
James Young BOS 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.076 $1,825,200 $678,793 ($1,146,407)
Joffrey Lauvergne CHI 0.4 1.1 1.5 0.075 $1,709,720 $3,393,963 $1,684,243
Tony Snell MIL 2.1 1.3 3.4 0.071 $2,368,327 $7,692,982 $5,324,655
Tyler Ennis LAL 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.033 $1,733,880 $905,057 ($828,823)
Mason Plumlee DEN 3.6 2.5 6 0.134 $2,328,530 $13,575,850 $11,247,320
David West GSW 0.9 1.7 2.6 0.148 $1,551,659 $5,882,868 $4,331,209
Metta World Peace LAL -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.065 $1,551,659 -$452,528 ($2,004,187)
Brandon Bass LAC 1.6 0.6 2.2 0.186 $1,551,659 $4,977,812 $3,426,153
Raymond Felton LAC 0.2 1.8 2 0.055 $1,551,659 $4,525,283 $2,973,624
Jason Terry MIL 1.2 0.9 2.1 0.075 $1,551,659 $4,751,548 $3,199,889
James Jones CLE 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.104 $1,551,659 $1,810,113 $258,454
Beno Udrih DET 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.111 $1,551,659 $2,941,434 $1,389,775
Tim Hardaway ATL 2.7 2.1 4.8 0.107 $2,281,605 $10,860,680 $8,579,075
Reggie Bullock DET 0.4 0.5 1 0.101 $2,255,644 $2,262,642 $6,998
Marreese Speights LAC 2.5 1.7 4.2 0.156 $1,403,611 $9,503,095 $8,099,484
Sasha Vujacic NYK -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.014 $1,410,598 $226,264 ($1,184,334)
Gerald Green BOS 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.051 $1,410,598 $1,357,585 ($53,013)
JaVale McGee GSW 2 1.5 3.5 0.225 $1,403,611 $7,919,246 $6,515,635
Andre Roberson OKC 1.1 3.1 4.2 0.085 $2,183,072 $9,503,095 $7,320,023
Ty Lawson SAC 2.2 1 3.2 0.088 $1,315,448 $7,240,454 $5,925,006
Alan Anderson LAC 0 0.1 0.1 0.02 $1,315,448 $226,264 ($1,089,184)
Brandon Jennings WAS 0.7 1 1.7 0.046 $4,837,318 $3,846,491 ($990,827)
Luke Babbitt MIA 0.8 1 1.8 0.082 $1,227,000 $4,072,755 $2,845,755
Willie Reed MIA 2.1 1.5 3.6 0.168 $1,015,696 $8,145,510 $7,129,814
Brian Roberts CHA 0 0.3 0.2 0.028 $1,050,961 $452,528 ($598,433)
Thomas Robinson LAL 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.079 $1,050,961 $2,036,378 $985,417
Ian Clark GSW 1 1.3 2.3 0.099 $1,015,696 $5,204,076 $4,188,380
Justin Holiday NYK 1.3 1.2 2.5 0.073 $1,015,696 $5,656,604 $4,640,908
Jeff Withey UTH 1 0.9 1.8 0.205 $1,015,696 $4,072,755 $3,057,059
Damjan Rudez ORL -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.008 $980,431 $226,264 ($754,167)
James Michael McAdoo GSW 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.115 $980,431 $2,488,906 $1,508,475
Christian Wood CHA 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.125 $874,636 $678,793 ($195,843)
Michael Beasley MIL 0.8 1 1.8 0.093 $1,403,611 $4,072,755 $2,669,144
Mike Muscala ATL 1.8 1.6 3.4 0.132 $1,015,696 $7,692,982 $6,677,286
Jonathon Simmons SAS -0.1 2.1 2 0.068 $874,636 $4,525,283 $3,650,647
Cristiano Felicio CHI 2.1 1.3 3.4 0.157 $874,636 $7,692,982 $6,818,346
Bobby Brown HOU 0.1 0 0.1 0.04 $680,534 $226,264 ($454,270)
JaMychal Green MEM 3.1 2.6 5.8 0.131 $980,431 $13,123,322 $12,142,891
Donatas Motiejunas NOP -0.4 0.6 0.2 0.018 $576,724 $452,528 ($124,196)
Ron Baker NYK -0.6 0.5 -0.1 -0.008 $543,471 -$226,264 ($769,735)
Joel Anthony SAS 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.141 $497,858 $905,057 $407,199
Alan Williams PHX 1.1 0.9 2.1 0.142 $874,636 $4,751,548 $3,876,912
Ronnie Price PHX -0.1 0.1 0 0.002 $2,557,545 $0 ($2,557,545)
Deron Williams CLE 1.5 0.9 2.4 0.069 $9,000,000 $5,430,340 ($3,569,660)
Jose Calderon ATL 0 0.3 0.3 0.023 $7,708,427 $678,793 ($7,029,634)
Matt Barnes GSW 0.3 1.7 2 0.053 $6,125,000 $4,525,283 ($1,599,717)
Norris Cole OKC -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.033 $247,991 -$226,264 ($474,255)
Derrick Williams CLE 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.064 $4,598,000 $2,488,906 ($2,109,094)
Omri Casspi MIN 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.037 $3,000,000 $1,131,321 ($1,868,679)
Troy Williams HOU -0.4 0.7 0.3 0.03 $543,471 $678,793 $135,322
Patricio Garino ORL -0.2 0 -0.2 -0.25 $100,000 -$452,528 ($552,528)
Dahntay Jones CLE 0 0 0 -0.03 $18,255 $0 ($18,255)
Edy Tavares CLE 0 0.1 0.1 0.15 $1,000,000 $226,264 ($773,736)
Alex Poythress PHI 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.099 $35,381 $678,793 $643,412

 

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dwyane wade didnt play defense all year and has 2.5 defensive win shares?  garbage.

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11 hours ago, Deleterious said:

It's been rumored that CJ Miles is a Pistons free agent target.

His WSV was $9M. So anything under that would be considered value.

But you can't really go off of that. He might be more valuable to a team like Detroit who needs shooting.

Yah, it would be tough for me to get upset about adding a shooting specialist for anything in that range. Hardaway would be a similar idea.

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On 6/5/2017 at 9:44 AM, Deleterious said:

Time for the Pistons!  Lets get right to the crying.

I LOL'd. :)

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The top 50 3PT shooters from last year.  The 4 or 5 attempt guys were filtered out.  I think the lowest amount of attempts on this list was 210 by Luke Babbitt.

You have to determine how valuable the floor spacing is that these players provide.

Does Crabbe provide $9M in floor spacing?  Probably not.  But Klay Thompson certain is worth the extra $600K for the spacing he provides.  Ryan Anderson?  Well, everyone knows how I feel about him.

Spoiler
Player Team 3PT% OWS  DWS WS WS/48 Salary Win Share Value Difference
Kyle Korver CLE 0.451 2.3 1.3 3.7 0.101 $5,239,437 $8,371,774 $3,132,337
Allen Crabbe POR 0.444 3.1 1 4.1 0.088 $18,500,000 $9,276,831 ($9,223,169)
Joe Ingles UTA 0.441 2 3 5 0.122 $2,250,000 $11,313,209 $9,063,209
Otto Porter WAS 0.434 6.5 2.9 9.4 0.173 $5,893,981 $21,268,832 $15,374,851
J.J. Redick LAC 0.429 3.3 1.5 4.8 0.105 $7,377,500 $10,860,680 $3,483,180
Seth Curry DAL 0.425 2.9 1.7 4.6 0.109 $2,898,000 $10,408,152 $7,510,152
C.J. McCollum POR 0.420 6.2 1.4 7.6 0.131 $3,219,579 $17,196,077 $13,976,498
Gary Harris DEN 0.420 3.9 0.7 4.6 0.124 $1,655,880 $10,408,152 $8,752,272
Luke Babbitt MIA 0.414 0.8 1 1.8 0.082 $1,227,000 $4,072,755 $2,845,755
Klay Thompson GSW 0.414 4.2 2.9 7.1 0.128 $16,663,575 $16,064,756 ($598,819)
C.J. Miles IND 0.413 2.7 1.4 4 0.109 $4,583,450 $9,050,567 $4,467,117
Patty Mills SAS 0.413 2.8 2.2 5.1 0.139 $3,578,948 $11,539,473 $7,960,525
Kyle Lowry TOR 0.412 7.8 2.3 10.1 0.216 $12,000,000 $22,852,681 $10,852,681
Joe Johnson UTA 0.411 1.7 2.1 3.8 0.099 $11,000,000 $8,598,039 ($2,401,961)
Stephen Curry GSW 0.411 8.6 3.9 12.6 0.229 $12,112,359 $28,509,286 $16,396,927
Chris Paul LAC 0.411 8 2.6 10.6 0.264 $22,868,828 $23,984,002 $1,115,174
Channing Frye CLE 0.409 2.3 1.4 3.7 0.125 $7,806,971 $8,371,774 $564,803
Mike Conley MEM 0.408 7.5 2.5 10 0.209 $26,540,100 $22,626,417 ($3,913,683)
Tony Snell MIL 0.406 2.1 1.3 3.4 0.071 $2,368,327 $7,692,982 $5,324,655
Goran Dragic MIA 0.405 5 2.6 7.5 0.147 $15,890,000 $16,969,813 $1,079,813
Bradley Beal WAS 0.404 6.8 1.6 8.5 0.151 $22,116,750 $19,232,455 ($2,884,295)
Nick Young LAL 0.404 3 0.2 3.2 0.098 $5,443,918 $7,240,454 $1,796,536
George Hill UTA 0.403 4 1.9 5.9 0.182 $8,000,000 $13,349,586 $5,349,586
Ryan Anderson HOU 0.403 4 1.1 5.2 0.118 $18,735,364 $11,765,737 ($6,969,627)
Courtney Lee NYK 0.401 3.1 1.1 4.2 0.081 $11,242,000 $9,503,095 ($1,738,905)
Kyrie Irving CLE 0.401 7.4 1.5 8.9 0.17 $17,638,063 $20,137,511 $2,499,448
Kemba Walker CHO 0.399 5.9 2.2 8.1 0.142 $12,000,000 $18,327,398 $6,327,398
Jae Crowder BOS 0.398 4.2 2.5 6.7 0.137 $6,286,408 $15,159,700 $8,873,292
Gordon Hayward UTA 0.398 7.1 3.3 10.4 0.199 $16,073,140 $23,531,474 $7,458,334
Dion Waiters MIA 0.395 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.057 $2,898,000 $3,620,227 $722,227
Paul George IND 0.393 4 3.1 7.1 0.127 $18,314,532 $16,064,756 ($2,249,776)
Manu Ginobili SAS 0.392 0.6 2.4 3 0.11 $14,000,000 $6,787,925 ($7,212,075)
Anthony Tolliver SAC 0.391 1.5 0.8 2.3 0.075 $8,000,000 $5,204,076 ($2,795,924)
Serge Ibaka TOR 0.391 2.5 2.6 5.1 0.101 $12,250,000 $11,539,473 ($710,527)
Buddy Hield SAC 0.391 0 1.3 1.3 0.032 $3,517,200 $2,941,434 ($575,766)
Avery Bradley BOS 0.390 1.1 2 3.1 0.08 $8,269,663 $7,014,189 ($1,255,474)
Langston Galloway TOT 0.390 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.041 $5,200,000 $2,941,434 ($2,258,566)
Danilo Gallinari DEN 0.389 6.2 0.7 6.9 0.154 $15,050,000 $15,612,228 $562,228
Troy Daniels MEM 0.389 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.051 $3,332,940 $2,941,434 ($391,506)
Jameer Nelson DEN 0.388 2.3 0.5 2.8 0.065 $4,540,525 $6,335,397 $1,794,872
Marc Gasol MEM 0.388 4.2 3.5 7.7 0.145 $21,165,675 $17,422,341 ($3,743,334)
Zach LaVine MIN 0.387 2.5 0.4 3 0.082 $2,240,880 $6,787,925 $4,547,045
Joe Harris BRK 0.385 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.032 $980,431 $1,810,113 $829,682
Patrick Beverley HOU 0.382 2.9 2.4 5.3 0.124 $6,000,000 $11,992,001 $5,992,001
Kawhi Leonard SAS 0.381 8.9 4.7 13.6 0.264 $17,638,063 $30,771,927 $13,133,864
Alex Abrines OKC 0.381 1.2 0.9 2.1 0.095 $5,994,764 $4,751,548 ($1,243,216)
Danny Green SAS 0.379 0.4 3 3.4 0.09 $10,000,000 $7,692,982 ($2,307,018)
Isaiah Thomas BOS 0.379 10.9 1.6 12.6 0.235 $6,587,132 $28,509,286 $21,922,154
Vince Carter MEM 0.378 1.9 2.1 4 0.106 $4,264,057 $9,050,567 $4,786,510
Wayne Ellington MIA 0.378 2.1 1.2 3.3 0.105 $6,000,000 $7,466,718 $1,466,718

 

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