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Just asking.................because I see little signs of life from this team recently.   But is the run really over?   Is it time to just break it up and build for a run in the early 20s?    Would replacing the manager make a difference?  (I think it can in baseball, that's been shown before by managers like Billy Martin and even Kirk Gibson).   Or is there just not enough real talent on this team at this point that a manager or tone would even make a difference?

Yeah, they're in a tough part of the schedule right now.  But if you are legit you play well against good teams.   I am not seeing that.   I am seeing a team of aging superstars that are quickly diminishing in return.   I see young players not stepping up and in what looks like to be a steep regression (Castellanos, Igelsias, McCann).    I  see expensive players that don't look like they belong in the majors (Upton, Zimmerman).   The three big positives have been Michael Fullmer,  JD Martinez and Alex Avila.   Martinez is probably trade bait because of the awful Upton and Zimmerman contracts and Avila is a guy that if you played him every day the nagging career long bumps and bruises will resurface and diminish his effectiveness.  

I don't think they are going to be as bad as 2015 but they sure don't look like a contender right now.   Maybe their only saving grace is they might be in a division where 86 wins takes it..................but this Detroit Tigers team, to me, does not look like an 81 win team, much less 86.    And worst of all, this team is barely watchable anymore.   

Am I overreacting?    Or is it over? 

 

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There is a decent chance that it's over, but it's still too early to know. There are two more months to figure that out. 

There isn't anything to do about it right now. No one is looking to make any significant trades at the moment. 

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They are performing to my expectations at this point, with some guys over performing to add a boost and other players playing below what I expected.  Nick especially is playing much worse than anticipated by me.  I had a feeling Shane Greene would be good this year etc etc.

It has been a pretty bad 2-3 games.  They win 6-7 in a row and we forget all about the start of the season.  The team is what it is.  We need an overhaul, not a major one, but we need an overhaul...a few changes here and there and we should be fine. Unfortunately those changes are from pieces we have a lot of money invested in so it will be difficult to over come them.  We will most likely miss the playoffs this year, but will still contend next year after some pieces are gone and others step up etc.  

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At the moment, JD and Adduci are third and fourth on the team in WAR for position players. 

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2 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Come on, I know...................I have that speech memorized.   

I just like the "What are we supposed to do ya moron" quote so much I had to go back and watch it again.

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yeah it's too early to make decisions on this season.  There is still a reasonable chance they can contend.  

As for what happens if they can not contend, I am not looking forward to a re-build unless they have a GM who knows how to do it.  Otherwise, we will have the Randy Smith years all over again.   I am not going to say that Avila is a failure.  Maybe he'll be good at drafting and player development which is crucial to a rebuild.  So far though, his results have not been good.   Some of it was bad luck, but he also made a couple of odd decisions.

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I'm definitely not starting on Ausmus, but I believe this team may respond to another voice. There are a lot of veteran players on this team, most all of them relied on heavily to produce. Is there currently a "leader" in the club house? A presence that we read about across different teams that motivates players? Or is this just a collection of baseball players? Billy Martin's name was mentioned prior and I think back to the 1972 Tigers. That team was in some ways like this one in that most all of their key guys were on the downside of their careers. Martin managed to get those guys into the playoffs, arguably a minor miracle. Is there an individual on this team, on or off the field, that will push others if needed? If not, I do believe this season will play out the way it is now, in futility. I believe these guys can play at a higher level but who is going to lead the change?

 

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Its over.

They have played .250 baseball since the 40 game mark.  They were 20-20, add in the current trend, and that gets them to only 50 or 51 wins.

It.  Is.  Over.

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21 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

yeah it's too early to make decisions on this season.  There is still a reasonable chance they can contend.  

As for what happens if they can not contend, I am not looking forward to a re-build unless they have a GM who knows how to do it.  Otherwise, we will have the Randy Smith years all over again.   I am not going to say that Avila is a failure.  Maybe he'll be good at drafting and player development which is crucial to a rebuild.  So far though, his results have not been good.   Some of it was bad luck, but he also made a couple of odd decisions.

I have not been too impressed so far with GM Avila, largely based off of his major league moves.  Really, that's the only visible resume that we have of him so far.  I'm not sure how I would feel about him at the helm of a rebuild.

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1 minute ago, Casimir said:

I have not been too impressed so far with GM Avila, largely based off of his major league moves.  Really, that's the only visible resume that we have of him so far.  I'm not sure how I would feel about him at the helm of a rebuild.

We don't know how involved he was in the trades of price and cespedes. For all we know he identified and suggested the guys we got back, all of whom have performed well enough.

I recall that he said he did handle the deal for Jacoby. 

His trades for krod and j wilson were both good. 

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34 minutes ago, John_Brian_K said:

I just like the "What are we supposed to do ya moron" quote so much I had to go back and watch it again.

"Doug Kenney Slipped Here"

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2 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I have not been too impressed so far with GM Avila, largely based off of his major league moves.  Really, that's the only visible resume that we have of him so far.  I'm not sure how I would feel about him at the helm of a rebuild.

Me either. I now wonder if Maybin staying would have been a positive for this team. Moving him as part of a true rebuild would have made total sense. The way things played out, his presence at the top of the order may have worked out here. I know he really wanted to stay...all speculation at this point. 

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The primary reason I liked Avila out of the gate was because he said he wanted to upgrade the farm system. That I can really appreciate. I know he has been hamstrung by some of the contracts he has to deal with.

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2 minutes ago, Shelton said:

We don't know how involved he was in the trades of price and cespedes. For all we know he identified and suggested the guys we got back, all of whom have performed well enough.

I recall that he said he did handle the deal for Jacoby. 

His trades for krod and j wilson were both good. 

The acquisition of Maybin was good too.  The Pelfrey signing seemed bad at the time.  He said it was a scouting move, but I was skeptical.  The Aviles pickup also seemed bad.  It was mostly harmless but just a strange choice.  It's hard to fault him for some of the other stuff, but the results have not been good.  I agree it's hard to judge him after two years, but at the same time it's hard to have a lot of faith in him leading a major overhaul.  

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It's been a very depressing several games. Certainly this could just be team wide slump they will all get over. But it does illustrate how bad this team is capable of being - they are proving how low their floor is all too convincingly - and that is never a good time to be a fan.

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2 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

It's been a very depressing several games. Certainly this could just be team wide slump they will all get over. But it does illustrate how bad this team is capable of being - they are proving how low their floor is all too convincingly - and that is never a good time to be a fan.

Every team has slumps like this, so it doesn't really say anything.  The fact that they have not really put together a good run yet is more concerning.   Their pitching makes it hard to do. 

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

Every team has slumps like this,

With Verlander and Fulmer, they probably will not run into long losing streaks, but that just masks how much trouble then have winning any starts by anyone else. They are 11 and 7 in Fulmer and JV starts, 10 and 16 in the rest.

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24 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

"Doug Kenney Slipped Here"

That's a pretty bizarre story. I saw someone talking about it on a behind the scenes of Animal House doc.

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8 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

The acquisition of Maybin was good too.  The Pelfrey signing seemed bad at the time.  He said it was a scouting move, but I was skeptical.  The Aviles pickup also seemed bad.  It was mostly harmless but just a strange choice.  It's hard to fault him for some of the other stuff, but the results have not been good.  I agree it's hard to judge him after two years, but at the same time it's hard to have a lot of faith in him leading a major overhaul.  

I guess I don't see any reason to not have faith. He's been in the game a long time. He was with the Tigers in 2002 prior to that tear down and rebuilding effort.

He hasn't yet had to be the man making the final decisions, but I think he understands what needs to be done in different situations. He has spoken out about the need to improve the system. 

If he had a history of making of poor rebuilding decisions, that would be one thing. I think he seriously considered making those types of moves this past offseason, but I think he determined (correctly) that it made more sense to put that type of thing off until at least the trade deadline this year. 

I still don't fault him too much for the thought process that saw him sign pelfrey and Lowe and aviles. Even so, those were moves that were made to try to fill holes and complete a roster, and not really indicative of how he would handle a rebuild. 

Anyway, I don't necessarily have faith that he will be a great rebuilder if the time comes to do so, but I don't see any reasons to not have faith either. 

We are just going to have to wait and see what he actually does when/if the time comes. 

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We ended the Rangers 10-game winning streak and the Astros have the best record in baseball. Baltimore was playing well when we won that series. I don't think there's anything to worry about, this is likely our toughest or 2nd toughest stretch of the season.

45 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Every team has slumps like this, so it doesn't really say anything.  The fact that they have not really put together a good run yet is more concerning.   Their pitching makes it hard to do. 

It's a shame KRod blew up, we would have had a very nice run if not for that. The bullpen back-end seems relatively fixed now tho. If you are looking for a run, I would say split the next 2 games and then go to town on CWS/KC/CWS. The stretch after that, running to the trade deadline, isn't that bad either.

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New rules for comp picks

Consider the case of J.D. Martinez, who has been arguably the planet's hottest hitter since returning from the disabled list a little more than one week ago. He will be eligible for free agency in November. And if Detroit's payroll ends the season at or above $195 million, the best it can get in return from Martinez -- should he reject a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere -- is a pick after the fourth round.

So barring a change to the team's payroll structure, general manager Al Avila can't tell his counterparts that he's prepared to hold onto Martinez for the purpose of collecting a high pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. The Tigers' payroll is too large for him to do so. And that is yet another consideration at Trade Deadline 2017 that never mattered much before.

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