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AlaskanTigersFan

Question about Stars of prospects...

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Good evening. I'm a noob when it comes to College recruiting. I was just wondering, I noticed whenever we are interested in 3 star players, powerhouses like Alabama and Georgia are almost ALWAYS in on the same 3-star prospects we are going after. Dont they usually only go for 4 or 5 star prospects? Just kinda surprised we see bigtime power house schools goin for 3 stars when it almost seems below them to even consider that.... Do they / (we) ever go after two star prospects? What would warrant that? Just tryin to get some insight. Thanks.

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Yeah, there are only so many 4/5 star recruits to go around, and a lot of teams that are in play for them. Even if you are bama, you can't expect that you would get enough of them to ultimately come to the school, so you have to take the bird in hand so to speak and offer some 3 star guys that you like. And obviously once the commitments start happening, you have a better idea how many of the spots are filled by the 4/5 star guys you are in on, and you can start going harder after the 3 stars. 

It is also worth noting that not all offers are created equal. You will see big programs "offer" a 3 star early on with the reality being that there might not be a spot and it isn't really an offer that can be committed to. But they do this so that when there is a spot they can put on a bigger press to land the guy. 

You can't expect to just jump in and grab a 3 star late when the 4/5 stars don't commit, because that 3 star is probably more interested in the other decent teams that were already recruiting him. 

It is kind of a nasty business, but whatever. An earlier signing day might help. A signing day in August that is binding on the school but allows the player to rescind prior to September might be a decent idea. 

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Thanks! This helps a lot. Like I said, I always assumed the bigger programs mainly only got 4/5 star players. I didn't realize 3 stars were being picked up so much...

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As someone who has been in the middle of some of this recruiting action, here's how I see the star system and why powerhouse teams go after 3* players to the point of going to war with other power schools.

Rating 15-18 year-old football players is very difficult, and it is not an exact science.  All good college coaching staffs feel they can evaluate talent better than the guys at Scout or local newspapers can.  Most of the time, the college coaches are right.

What can cause a player to be overrated?  It used to be playing against inferior competition, and that can still be a factor, but now you can also add outstanding performance in any given camp.  

Here are examples of what a 3* can be, although there are more scenarios:

Here is three-star #1:  Sometimes kids come to camp with little track record and they will run a 4.5 and crank out a vertical leap of 39".  Suddenly there is a run on this kid.  Where is his film?  Why haven't we heard of him?  What other camps is he going to?  And a two-star football player is born.  If this kid performs well at other camps, shows well in one-on-one drills and then has a good game or two--boom!  Now he's a three-star and this kid wasn't on anyone's radar three months ago.  High ceiling and low wear-and-tear is what the college coach sees

Let me introduce you to three-star #2:  This is a high-production player with above-average measurables.  He checks three of the following four boxes:  good size, good speed, good tools and playing at a good program.  Sometimes he even has a history of good production to back all this up.  Kid has gone to several camps and has been evaluated thoroughly.  Like kid #1, this is a  player college coaches feel they can coach up to the level of the 4* players--if eventually.

Three-star #3 is the prize most often fought over:  Very productive prep career and impressive measurables.  Kid has exhibited most--if not all--the traits college coaches look for in athletes rated higher.  Sporadic camp attendee, if he has gone at all.  Plays against competition that may not be great and/or plays out of position per need of high school team.  Kid has one or more ideal tool, in the mind of the college coach, which will eventually make him useful player to a college program.

Here in FL, I've seen borderline 3/4* players take greyshirts to Alabama rather than full-scholarships to USF or UCF where they would start as a freshmen.  Sometimes a school like Auburn will fight hard with Bama for a kid like this, even offer him a ride immediately rather than making him wait a semester or two at Bama.  I've seen a 3* OT, a kid who started as a freshman at a mid-level SEC school, change his 18-month verbal from a former powerhouse because they gave him $5K in a backpack.  The kid's mom is a six-figure executive, he didn't even need the money.  

Star ratings are crazy thing.  Scout and Rivals depended on local talent evaluators here in FL for quite a long time, although that has changed in recent years.   They ranked their players based on a mashup of the opinion of the evaluator and the local coaches, with camp evaluations and workout performances sprinkled in (liberally, at times).  Now that I have been away for a few years, and I no longer go to games/practices/7-on-7 I don't feel qualified to say exactly how the kids are evaluated in my area--From Daytona Beach to Miami--right now.  But it can't be drastically different.

 *****Opinion alert!!!!*****  States like FL, CA, TX, and OH routinely produce 3* players who should really be 4* players, and states that are less football-fertile like the rest of the midwest (I don't consier PA to be midwest) and rural middle-america states will routinely produce a slate of players who should be a star-ranking lower.  These aforementioned battleground states are where college coaches routinely fight over 3* talent.

One final thought is that some positions are never handed five-star evaluations, so these players should be graded probably a full grade higher than they are.  These positions are:  kicker, punter, fullback and long-snapper.  So when you see that your favorite program has signed a 3* specialist or fullback, you are allowed to get pretty excited.  If you ever see a 3* long-snapper, you need to blink because you are seeing things.

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On 5/30/2017 at 4:28 PM, mickeyb105 said:

As someone who has been in the middle of some of this recruiting action, here's how I see the star system and why powerhouse teams go after 3* players to the point of going to war with other power schools.

Rating 15-18 year-old football players is very difficult, and it is not an exact science.  All good college coaching staffs feel they can evaluate talent better than the guys at Scout or local newspapers can.  Most of the time, the college coaches are right.

What can cause a player to be overrated?  It used to be playing against inferior competition, and that can still be a factor, but now you can also add outstanding performance in any given camp.  

Here are examples of what a 3* can be, although there are more scenarios:

Here is three-star #1:  Sometimes kids come to camp with little track record and they will run a 4.5 and crank out a vertical leap of 39".  Suddenly there is a run on this kid.  Where is his film?  Why haven't we heard of him?  What other camps is he going to?  And a two-star football player is born.  If this kid performs well at other camps, shows well in one-on-one drills and then has a good game or two--boom!  Now he's a three-star and this kid wasn't on anyone's radar three months ago.  High ceiling and low wear-and-tear is what the college coach sees

Let me introduce you to three-star #2:  This is a high-production player with above-average measurables.  He checks three of the following four boxes:  good size, good speed, good tools and playing at a good program.  Sometimes he even has a history of good production to back all this up.  Kid has gone to several camps and has been evaluated thoroughly.  Like kid #1, this is a  player college coaches feel they can coach up to the level of the 4* players--if eventually.

Three-star #3 is the prize most often fought over:  Very productive prep career and impressive measurables.  Kid has exhibited most--if not all--the traits college coaches look for in athletes rated higher.  Sporadic camp attendee, if he has gone at all.  Plays against competition that may not be great and/or plays out of position per need of high school team.  Kid has one or more ideal tool, in the mind of the college coach, which will eventually make him useful player to a college program.

Here in FL, I've seen borderline 3/4* players take greyshirts to Alabama rather than full-scholarships to USF or UCF where they would start as a freshmen.  Sometimes a school like Auburn will fight hard with Bama for a kid like this, even offer him a ride immediately rather than making him wait a semester or two at Bama.  I've seen a 3* OT, a kid who started as a freshman at a mid-level SEC school, change his 18-month verbal from a former powerhouse because they gave him $5K in a backpack.  The kid's mom is a six-figure executive, he didn't even need the money.  

Star ratings are crazy thing.  Scout and Rivals depended on local talent evaluators here in FL for quite a long time, although that has changed in recent years.   They ranked their players based on a mashup of the opinion of the evaluator and the local coaches, with camp evaluations and workout performances sprinkled in (liberally, at times).  Now that I have been away for a few years, and I no longer go to games/practices/7-on-7 I don't feel qualified to say exactly how the kids are evaluated in my area--From Daytona Beach to Miami--right now.  But it can't be drastically different.

 *****Opinion alert!!!!*****  States like FL, CA, TX, and OH routinely produce 3* players who should really be 4* players, and states that are less football-fertile like the rest of the midwest (I don't consier PA to be midwest) and rural middle-america states will routinely produce a slate of players who should be a star-ranking lower.  These aforementioned battleground states are where college coaches routinely fight over 3* talent.

One final thought is that some positions are never handed five-star evaluations, so these players should be graded probably a full grade higher than they are.  These positions are:  kicker, punter, fullback and long-snapper.  So when you see that your favorite program has signed a 3* specialist or fullback, you are allowed to get pretty excited.  If you ever see a 3* long-snapper, you need to blink because you are seeing things.

Incredible post. Thanks for the insight. Whereabouts in FL are you?

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29 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Incredible post. Thanks for the insight. Whereabouts in FL are you?

Thank you :)

I am in Vero Beach, which is about a three-hour drive due east of Clearwater and also is the half-way point between Jacksonville and South Beach.  

It is the hometown of Rimmington Award-winner and Super Bowl-starter Bryan Stork, Army AA Safety  Zeke Motta, Former 1st-round pick DE Kenny Holmes,  and Tampa Ray's starting pitcher Alex Cobb who could have played QB at about any school.  

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Gotcha. I am in a little town called Montverde FL. Powerhouse basketball and especially soccer. Ben Simmons, D'angelo Russell, Joel Imbed (sp), and countless others came from the school i work at.

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6 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Gotcha. I am in a little town called Montverde FL. Powerhouse basketball and especially soccer. Ben Simmons, D'angelo Russell, Joel Imbed (sp), and countless others came from the school i work at.

Lake County has had a lot of talent over the years for sure, even the guys who aren't  imported in like Simmons and Embiid.

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7 hours ago, mickeyb105 said:

Lake County has had a lot of talent over the years for sure, even the guys who aren't  imported in like Simmons and Embiid.

My wife cant say enough nice things about Embiid. She thinks he's such a sweetheart. Her favorite is Patricio Garino of the Orlando Magic. He too came from Montverde Academy. Hes the nicest kid I've met in the NBA. Talk about a great kid. You cant find a better person.

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