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MAROTH4MVP

2017- Redwings Offseason

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17 minutes ago, drownwithyou said:

Oh no Shelton... Coreau?!

 

I did this a few times, but I figure with the hindsight of the year I'd run it again and share what I did:

 

Nielsen (NMC)

Zetterberg (Left him off before as I didn't think he would get chosen due to age/contract, but after the year he had, the fact that LV has to claim a certain amount of money, and the cap recapture penalty stays with Detroit even if he retires in Vegas made me want to keep him)

Nyquist

Tatar

Mantha

Athanasiou

Nosek

Green

Oullete

Jensen

Mrazek

 

I would guess that Abdelkader gets kept over Nosek and DeKeyser over Oullete if I had to wager (even though getting out from both Abdelkader and DeKeyser's contracts would be soooo awesome).  I feel like Kronwall could sneak in over Jensen due to loyalty but I doubt LV would want him and I would hope that someone in the FO sees that.

I would put in Sheahan over Nosek and go with this list. They absolutely have to protect Hank, he makes $7.5M next year but then only $5.35M the next 3 years, Vegas would absolutely take him.

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5 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I protected the crappy goalie only because I had to protect one (I guess I didn't have to, but you know what I mean).

i would be fine with either Howard or mrazek being claimed. Feels like putting them both out there increases our chances of getting rid of one. You don't know exactly which one LV might prefer. 

Coreau isn't good enough to worry about. I would protect Mrazek so if Vegas wants to take one of our goalies, they have to take Howard. Mrazek is 1 year $4M and only 25, so there's not much to be gained by giving him away.

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I couldn't figure out which three D-men to protect. That was the hardest part for me. 

Isnt Jimmy Howard good again? His contract doesn't run much longer. Would it be worth it to protect him on the off chance that the team puts things together. 

I thought mrazek sucked now. 

Please give me the correct info, please and thank you. 

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Just now, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Coreau isn't good enough to worry about. I would protect Mrazek so if Vegas wants to take one of our goalies, they have to take Howard. Mrazek is 1 year $4M and only 25, so there's not much to be gained by giving him away.

Isn't mrazek RFA this summer? I figured if he was kept and Howard was gone, mrazek would end up signed for multiple years. 

Like I said in the above post, I thought Howard had overtaken mrazek this season as the better goalie, but I only saw one game this year so I'm going off of random snippets here and there. 

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4 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I couldn't figure out which three D-men to protect. That was the hardest part for me. 

Isnt Jimmy Howard good again? His contract doesn't run much longer. Would it be worth it to protect him on the off chance that the team puts things together. 

I thought mrazek sucked now. 

Please give me the correct info, please and thank you. 

Jimmy was much better for a while, he kind of tailed off a bit and has been injured a lot. But still better than Mrazek, yes. He has 2/$10.5M left and is 33.

Since they're not in cup contention, I think you make sure and keep the younger kid. I suppose if they somehow think that is Coreau, he's who you keep, but I don't see it.

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There's also the option of trading a 3rd or 4th round pick in exchange for them taking Abdelkader (not going to happen IMO), Ericsson (probably not) or Helm (possible, IMO).

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19 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

I would put in Sheahan over Nosek and go with this list. They absolutely have to protect Hank, he makes $7.5M next year but then only $5.35M the next 3 years, Vegas would absolutely take him.

Nosek over Sheahan for me is just cost related, I think they can play the same sort of role and outside of money honestly I wouldn't mind one on the team over the other.  But Nosek has one more year at $612,000 and Sheahan has one more year at just over $2 million. Nosek is a year younger, but not really significant to make a difference. I don't expect either to re-sign with Detroit.

15 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I couldn't figure out which three D-men to protect. That was the hardest part for me. 

Isnt Jimmy Howard good again? His contract doesn't run much longer. Would it be worth it to protect him on the off chance that the team puts things together. 

I thought mrazek sucked now. 

Please give me the correct info, please and thank you. 

Howard has had strong stretches the last two seasons, but he's already 33, injury prone, and has a couple more years at $5 million.  Petr is still only 25 and will be a RFA at the end of his current deal.  Petr has also been very up and down, but has shown that he can be dominant for some stretches (but also that he can be putrid) in the NHL.  So with age and control I give Petr the edge.

Coreau is still super unproven and I don't think he looked that great at the NHL level, even when he was doing "well" he was getting a ton of puck luck and good bounces.  I don't see him more than a backup option in the future, but I will give him credit that he went from being a UDFA and having one of the worst ECHL seasons, to getting some play in the NHL and thrust himself into the conversation as far as being a goalie for the big club.  He obviously is a hard worker and takes instruction well, but I'm not sure it can overcome his limitations.

 

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I don't like any of the three Goaltenders long term. Howard is probably the best in my opinion, if the Redwings are trying to make the playoffs at all cost in the new arena.

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You have to protect Green because I think this summer he has more trade value than any other Red Wing.

I wouldn't give up on Mrazek yet. His career was humming away towards stardom until he fell off a cliff a year and a half ago. Goalies are funny, they sometimes bounce back.

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13 hours ago, Shelton said:

Is there a cliff notes version on the expansion draft and in particular how it will affect the red wings?

are there certain players that you have to protect? I think about a guy like abdelkader who is ridiculously overpaid. Seems like a no brainer to make him available. 

Do you have to leave a certain number of young/cheap players available to be picked?

Are you limited to protecting only one goalie? If so, is there a general consensus on which one they will protect?

 

Expansion draft rules.

The Expansion Draft tool I posted above is a great way to see who the Wings -- or any other team -- can protect.

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I feel confident enough in the following that I will post it for all of eternity so that it can be used against me in the future to show how little I really know.

Coreau is at best a career back-up goalie in the NHL and I would be surprised if he gets more than a few more seasons in that role outside of playing for a really bad team and/or playing in an organization that happens to have injury issues at the goaltender position.  He is not as good as Howard or Mrazek and both of those guys are pretty inconsistent.

Mrazek would be the goalie that I'd protect, due primarily to age, secondarily to contract.  That written, if they lose either Howard or Mrazek, it isn't likely going to negatively impact things much one way or the other.  Neither are all that tradeable now and neither are likely going to be instrumental in a rebuild in any event.

I agree that Green probably should be protected because he could be moved this summer should the team want to move off of him and he provides value if they wish to retain him.  Zetterberg falls in this category as well, and that ignores the fan base that link him to past great teams, he is the captain / face of franchise, etc., etc.

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11 hours ago, lordstanley said:

 

I wouldn't give up on Mrazek yet. His career was humming away towards stardom until he fell off a cliff a year and a half ago. Goalies are funny, they sometimes bounce back.

Agreed.  He came back from injury too soon last season and this season he just seemed a little out of it mentally as he was back to really over playing his angles which was his problem early on in his career.  I expected a big year from him since they brought in his old goalie coach from GR and apparently they get along well.  Hopefully he gets any issues sorted out this off season.

On a random note, my parents' family friends' niece used to date Mrazek and my parents are going on a trip with that family who promised to give them a bunch of Mrazek signed stuff including a stick because the niece wants to get rid of it all.  I'm excited to see what all there is.  Now Mrazek has to become a legend so I can sell it all for millions.

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3 hours ago, drownwithyou said:

On a random note, my parents' family friends' niece used to date Mrazek and my parents are going on a trip with that family who promised to give them a bunch of Mrazek signed stuff including a stick because the niece wants to get rid of it all.  I'm excited to see what all there is.  Now Mrazek has to become a legend so I can sell it all for millions.

I hate to disparage a family friend, but it was probably a devastating break-up that ruined Mrazek's career. When exactly did the break-up occur. Damn you, that little b-word.

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We can make trades with non-Playoff teams, right?

Holland won't do this, but I'm still clamoring for a youth movement. So he should protect Mrazek, and trade Howard to either Winnipeg, Philly, or Carolina for whatever he can get. A 2nd or 3rd or 4th in 2018's draft? What's he worth? I don't even know. 

But (3) teams that were on the edge of the playoffs could use a goalie of Howard's ilk, at least as a backup playing 30-ish games, or even a 50/50 scenario. If it gets them 10 more points, they're in the playoffs. At NOT an exceptionally high cost.

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I don't think you can trade Howard without taking back salary. Would be better to lose him in the expansion draft.

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2 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Howard is not worth 10 points relative the next best option for those teams.

Yeah... I'm not certain about that.

After posting a .927 Save percentage... I think he's worth more than 10 cents.

A 4th rounder +/- for a Playoff contender/ wannabe... to at least be a backup? I would think so, at least...

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1 hour ago, lordstanley said:

I don't think you can trade Howard without taking back salary. Would be better to lose him in the expansion draft.

Unless you only get back a draft pick...

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1 hour ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Yeah... I'm not certain about that.

After posting a .927 Save percentage... I think he's worth more than 10 cents.

A 4th rounder +/- for a Playoff contender/ wannabe... to at least be a backup? I would think so, at least...

Two things:

1. Just because he just posted a .927 doesn't mean he will moving forward.

2. supposing he replaces a guy that would have posted a .907.  That means Jimmy would get one extra save every 50 shots.  In a back up role, I don't think that will net a team an extra 10 points.  Plus one must consider shootout and he isn't particularly good at them.  So he might lose a team a point or two there.

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11 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Two things:

1. Just because he just posted a .927 doesn't mean he will moving forward.

2. supposing he replaces a guy that would have posted a .907.  That means Jimmy would get one extra save every 50 shots.  In a back up role, I don't think that will net a team an extra 10 points.  Plus one must consider shootout and he isn't particularly good at them.  So he might lose a team a point or two there.

1. Of course... That one I know.

2. That would be saving a goal every other game (assuming average 25 shots faced/ game, although I think the average is higher than that...); roughly 30 games = 15 goals saved, maybe a couple more (if he's facing a much higher rate of SA). Lot of 1-goal games or tie games in the NHL. He could get pretty damn close to that +10 points in the right situation... strictly by this math that is...

3. I won't speak to the shootout scenario. But if a lesser goalie gets the team a loss rather than a tie, than the shootout issue is moot...

 

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Of course those saved goals *could* net an extra 10 points if everything fell right, but it is highly, highly unlikely.  They also could net the team 0 extra points.  The most likely outcome is probably two extra wins or something.

Do you really think a back-up goalie somewhat regularly make 90 point teams into a 100 point team?

How did that work out for the Kings?

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