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RedRamage

Time to give up on Sanchez?

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I know it's early, and I know it's only Spring Training, but the stats are very, very bad:

2.2 innings pitched, 9 hits, 7 earned runs, 3 walks and only 2 Ks.

Opponents are hitting .529 against him!  More often than not batters are getting a hit when facing Sanchez.

It really stinks because we're paying him so much, but I just don't think it makes sense to take him north with the team.  He's just really, really bad right now.

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Not too surprising. His past few seasons have leading to this. If he was successful it would be news. I'm guessing that he will be cut by the end of spring, leaving it up to him whether he wants to pitch in Toledo. That wouldn't be the worst situation. He basically has an option this year because no one is going to claim him if they put him on waivers. 

They could probably do the same thing with pelfrey, although he would be more likely to be claimed, which would be just fine. 

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1 hour ago, RedRamage said:

I know it's early, and I know it's only Spring Training, but the stats are very, very bad:

2.2 innings pitched, 9 hits, 7 earned runs, 3 walks and only 2 Ks.

Opponents are hitting .529 against him!  More often than not batters are getting a hit when facing Sanchez.

It really stinks because we're paying him so much, but I just don't think it makes sense to take him north with the team.  He's just really, really bad right now.

I don't know if there is anyone who wants to see Sanchez in the starting rotation less than me, but just to play devil's advocate, Sanchez put up horrible ST numbers (ERA >6) in a couple of the years when he was quite good, so he has a record of getting going slowly. And even in 2015, I don't think his record would have been nearly so bad if Ausmus could have found a role for him that didn't require consistently pitching him past when he was out of gas. Last year was not good, harder to sugar coat that.

I'm willing to reserve judgement on his ability to work relief until he has a little more ST under his belt. I do think his endurance to start is probably not coming back.

He may just be toast, IIRC he had had at least two surgeries on the arm before we signed him but I don't mind letting it play out a bit more. I don't imagine there are trade offers we will be passing up.

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Sanchez's contract is a sunk cost, and should not be a factor if the Tigers truly want to be playoff contenders this season.

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I don't think it makes sense to release him immediately, but I certainly don't expect him to be in the rotation (or on the roster) at the beginning of the season. Once he passes through waivers, I expect some other team will take a chance on him since the Tigers will be on the hook for the contract. I don't see him with the Mud Hens on a minor league deal, but I suppose stranger things have happened.

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3 minutes ago, Tigertown Rats said:

I don't think it makes sense to release him immediately, but I certainly don't expect him to be in the rotation (or on the roster) at the beginning of the season. Once he passes through waivers, I expect some other team will take a chance on him since the Tigers will be on the hook for the contract. I don't see him with the Mud Hens on a minor league deal, but I suppose stranger things have happened.

Yeah, there is no reason to cut him right now. It doesn't gain them anything to do so. While highly unlikely, there is always the chance that he turns it around and pitches well enough going forward that you could justify keeping him for the bullpen. Or maybe he pitches decently and one of the starters gets hurt, and we have no one else that looks better. 

He will probably be a final week cut, giving him enough time to clear waivers and latch on with another team if he elects free agency. It will be up to him whether he wants to be a free agent or accept an assignment to Toledo. I can't see another team offering him a major league deal, even for the minimum, so it's possible he would prefer to stay in the system and pitch in Toledo and try to get things straightened out around guys he knows. But who knows. It could be better for him to try to find a landing spot with a team that has a less solidified rotation, which would give him a better chance to get back to the majors. 

Then again, he might just decide that he doesn't want to ride the bus in the minors and he could simply walk away. You never know with some of these guys and their desire to keep playing. 

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I'm actually glad to see this because nothing we've seen from him the last few years, outside of some success out of the bullpen in 2014 after his injury, has given me any reason to think he'd be a good pitcher again.  My fear was that this organization would cling to any morsel of hope as an excuse to keep trotting him out there to lose games for us.  Nothing worse than accepting bad performance in the hope that the veteran guy will 'figure it out'.  "Well look, he wasn't THAT bad... he kept his team in the game.... only gave up 5 runs in 5 innings... just that one hit really...."

I don't want to hear Brad say "Sanchy" again.

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Maybe we should wait about two years?

the current conversation has little to do with the spring performance. We've been talking about this at least since midseason last year. All that is happening now is a confirmation of what most expected, and now the decision is a mere three weeks away. 

Of course, if he were actually pitching well we probably wouldn't be talking about cutting him, but he went into the spring with a short leash and. Orhing he has done as given him any additional slack. 

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It is 2.2 innings calm down.

Also, historically he has been good out of the bullpen. Given the lack of good options there, it makes sense to at least start the season with him in the pen. If he struggles you can replace him. It is not as if he is blocking a hot prospect in the bullpen.

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I think they will not make decisions on Sanchez, Pelfrey and Lowe until right before season starts.  Injuries could happen.  Fulmer already sprained his ankle which is probably nothing but sometimes those things can linger.  I also doubt they dump more than one of those contracts before the season starts.      

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7 hours ago, Euphdude said:

Sanchez's contract is a sunk cost, and should not be a factor if the Tigers truly want to be playoff contenders this season.

All guaranteed MLB contracts are sunk costs unless a team is able to make a recover on them, either though performance, trade, or injury insurance. 

As bad as Sanchez was over the past two seasons, he still recorded 1 WAR and 0.8 WAR respectively. Fangraphs has him valued at about $7 million/season.  It's not great value for the money paid, but it does indicate that the team is still recovering value though performance, even at this level.  So calling him a sunk cost is a misnomer. 

 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I say sell the whole team for scraps and move to Sioux Falls tonight.

 

Move them to Montana instead so Eric Cioe can see them in person. 

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Just for funsies, Sanchez's contract was valued at $80 million including the buyout.  According to fangraphs he's already returned $82.7 million in value, before the 2017 season.  Even if he was a sunk cost that we needed to cut, the contract so far has been decent. If he were to return another $6 million in value through his play this season, you have to call that contract a win for the Tigers (ie ~+10% value over what we paid including the buyout). Anyway, the Tigers have done well with Sanchez as a whole.  

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I'm not willing to give Sanchez any positive value over the last couple years. That doesn't mean the contract was/is bad. 

Looming at the overall value is good, though. Most contracts are pretty evenly distributed even though the best performance comes early. So it's fair to look back at surplus value early on to justify long term deals. 

 

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In addition to the reasons above not to give up on him yet, there is the slight issue of SP depth and the fact that some of those other options (Pelfrey and Farmer) ain't exactly looked so good themselves so far this spring.

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26 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I'm not willing to give Sanchez any positive value over the last couple years. That doesn't mean the contract was/is bad. 

~1 WAR/season for a 5th SP is more than acceptable for most teams. So I'm not sure why you would give no positive value over the past two years for Sanchez. They were disappointing seasons compared to expectations, but that doesn't mean he didn't provide positive returns at the same time. 

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3 hours ago, tiger337 said:

I think they will not make decisions on Sanchez, Pelfrey and Lowe until right before season starts.  Injuries could happen.  Fulmer already sprained his ankle which is probably nothing but sometimes those things can linger.  I also doubt they dump more than one of those contracts before the season starts.      

The other reason you wait is that he may have some decent outings, and if shows any good fundamentals like velocity or K rate, that could  take a million or two off of how much of his contract you have to pay to move him.

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39 minutes ago, ballmich said:

~1 WAR/season for a 5th SP is more than acceptable for most teams. So I'm not sure why you would give no positive value over the past two years for Sanchez. They were disappointing seasons compared to expectations, but that doesn't mean he didn't provide positive returns at the same time. 

I'm referring to the fangraphs war calculation. I don't believe he provided value above replacement level. 

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I was just looking at his recent results again, doesn't look like he even did as well in relief last season as my recollection would have argued.

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