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2017 Offseason and free agency thread

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In regards to the Stafford extension the Derek Carr domino fell.  He got 5 year 125 million.  Not sure about the other parameters of the deal or the guaranteed money but I'd imagine that's a baseline of what Stafford is going to be asking for. 

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On 6/22/2017 at 2:16 PM, RandyMarsh said:

In regards to the Stafford extension the Derek Carr domino fell.  He got 5 year 125 million.  Not sure about the other parameters of the deal or the guaranteed money but I'd imagine that's a baseline of what Stafford is going to be asking for. 

I have long thought Stafford was going to get upwards of $24-$25 million per season. With the Derek Car signing, I now think we're looking at a $26-$27 million dollar contract. I can't see a reality in which Stafford takes less than Derek Carr does. I can see Stafford getting 5 at $130/million at this point.

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

In before Cruzer claims it is a top 3 roster.

Nah he won't do that. Not enough speed. 

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42 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Nah he won't do that. Not enough speed. 

fine.  top 4.

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Our Oline was also ranked really low by PFF, I believe it was #27 and worst in the NFCN.  I was surprised by that, I know that includes the Decker loss but even without him I didn't think that only 5 teams would have worse ones than us.  

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7 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Our Oline was also ranked really low by PFF, I believe it was #27 and worst in the NFCN.  I was surprised by that, I know that includes the Decker loss but even without him I didn't think that only 5 teams would have worse ones than us.  

robinson and glasgow were two of the worst offensive linemen in the league by their metrics, thats going to weigh down any line.

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PFF are noted lion haters.  Playoffs 2 out of the last 3 years, tremendous off season and they still downgrade the Lions.  

PFF is to the Lions what Hannity was to Obama. 

I don't pay attention to any stats they produce.  Fake news. 

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#1 player on pff's list?  aaron "not eric ebron" donald.

aka, mayhew's biggest mistake.

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17 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Proof they are haters.

Not haters, but not exactly reliable. I don't really understand the love PFF gets. I get that their process seems cool, but there are a couple things about them that really bother me:

1) They don't release their raw grades, so there is no way to do an independent analysis on their system

2) The summation of their grades is a worse predictor of team record than DVOA by a significant amount, even worse than Pythagorean point differential. And they are barely better than points scored as a predictor. 

I keep wanting to like PFF, but I really think they are overhyped, and really need to revisit the math of what they do. It's possible their metrics are fine at comparing 1 QB to another QB (or WR to WR, etc), but they take it too far with "roster strength" and other metrics that they have been shown to be poor at determining. 

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In all seriousness, should we expect roster strength be highly correlated to W/L record?

Most games are decided by a single score, so turnovers or a kick return or a random meh game by a great QB (or a random great game by a meh QB) can easily lead a weaker roster to a win.

In other words, I tend to think the noise is greater than the signal inside an NFL game.  Further, the season is only 16 games, so it is much, much easier for a team with talent to normally finish 6 and 10 to go 10 and 6 than say a baseball team with 62 and 100 talent to go 100 and 62.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

In all seriousness, should we expect roster strength be highly correlated to W/L record?

Most games are decided by a single score, so turnovers or a kick return or a random meh game by a great QB (or a random great game by a meh QB) can easily lead a weaker roster to a win.

In other words, I tend to think the noise is greater than the signal inside an NFL game.  Further, the season is only 16 games, so it is much, much easier for a team with talent to normally finish 6 and 10 to go 10 and 6 than say a baseball team with 62 and 100 talent to go 100 and 62.

For 1 team, maybe not. For 32 teams each playing 16 games? Thats 256 games, so I would expect a strong correlation. If there isn't one (due to league parity or what not), then I would expect a site dedicated to advanced analytics of football to put out meaningful stats that do correlate to what the good teams are doing. We should be able to take raw PFF grades (not the normalized stuff they publish), and turn it into a formula where Fwins(roster strength, schedule|roster strength) and get meaningful relationships.

At the very least, applying their grades retroactively to predict the season that has already occurred should result in a stronger correlation than it does. 

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Unless they changed their methods in the past couple seasons the one thing I didn't like about PFF was how they basically automatically gave you a positive grade if you were double teamed.    That's why guys like Suh and Calvin got positive grades every games even in games they didn't make an impact at all.   I don't think you should be rewarded because the opposition chooses to double team you. 

Also I think they put too much emphasis on forcing missed tackles.  A RB that has great vision and can hit the hole hard doesn't get graded as highly as one that will force a missed tackle, even though they are both valuable and both are a skill.  

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Fair enough.  Across all teams it should bear a relationship or it is just opinion at that point.

To be fair, since I have been pretty harsh on PFF the last couple posts, it does bear a relationship. I just personally am not happy with the amount of variance that an accumulation of their model explains, especially when comparing a prior seasons grades directly to other accepted models like DVOA (which also has its faults). 

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im not a huge pff guy and - like most people - i normally use stats i dont understand only if they support whatever argument im making at the moment.

i subscribed for a year and what they were saying in the numbers didnt correspond to what i saw on the field.   so i didnt renew.

i also dont see the lions as a very talented team  at the moment.  but they do have a very talented qb and thats really what you need in the nfl these days.

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4 hours ago, Buddha said:

#1 player on pff's list?  aaron "not eric ebron" donald.

aka, mayhew's biggest mistake.

That cements it, definitely unreliable. 

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44 minutes ago, Buddha said:

im not a huge pff guy and - like most people - i normally use stats i dont understand only if they support whatever argument im making at the moment.

i subscribed for a year and what they were saying in the numbers didnt correspond to what i saw on the field.   so i didnt renew.

i also dont see the lions as a very talented team  at the moment.  but they do have a very talented qb and thats really what you need in the nfl these days.

Apparently they have a subscription service for NFL teams. The lions unsubscribed when Quinn took over, apparently since then they have done nothing but hate on the Lions.

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16 minutes ago, MAROTH4MVP said:

Apparently they have a subscription service for NFL teams. The lions unsubscribed when Quinn took over, apparently since then they have done nothing but hate on the Lions.

thats a very lions friendly rumor and likely not true.

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