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Nastradamus

2017 Offseason and free agency thread

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I have no problem with Calvin retiring if he was banged up and didn't want to play football anymore. It's his life and I'm not holding it against him. I also don't care if he wants to comment on the Lions being bad, because, duh, they're the Lions.

Whining that the team held him to his contract and made him pay back money for doing so is pretty pathetic though. Get this, even if you're rich and really good at your job, their still might be consequences for quitting. Welcome to reality for every other human on Earth. 

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I don't have a problem with Calvin being honest about his frustrations. I also wouldn't have a problem with him if he was agitating for a chance to come back with another team than the Lions. I don't think he is doing this, and it would disappoint me as a fan, but I don't begrudge any person the opportunity to achieve their personal goals and happiness.

That said, I think he's decided to become vocal several years too late. As a fan, I would love for him to have become more vocal as a player.

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If only Calvin had run to the podium on draft night in 2014 and snatched the card that said Eric Ebron out of Barry's hand and swapped it with an Aaron Donald card.

I too would have liked Calvin to be more of a vocal leader in certain areas (namely dealing with some of the off-the-field issues this team had), but I'm not sure it would have actually amounted to anything different from an on the field stand point. This team was still being run and coached by the likes of Matt Millen, Martin Mayhew, Pad Level Rod Marinelli, Jim Schwartz, etc. who either poorly assembled or poorly coached this team. Maybe Calvin being more vocal could have helped with some of the off the field shenanigans we had going on for a while. In the end though, I think Calvin contributed and sacrificed more than enough for this organization.

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The limited amount of feedback I've been able to watch suggests that, at least with Robinson, the blocking scheme he was in with the Rams was completely counter-productive to his talents.  Add to that he was learning the speed of the league & it seems there may be something to work with.  I'm hopeful. At the very least it's more cost effective, which should help the organization pay more in other areas .. like Stafford.

To move the conversation back on the field...

I heard a Rams beat writer being interviewed on NFL Radio last week. He quoted a few Rams offensive linemen expressing frustration with players not understanding their assignments. I hope that means there is room for Robinson to improve under better coaching. And not that Robinson is uncoachable.

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the lions took down the banners for playoff appearances.  baby steps to being a real franchise.  thank god.

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Somehow I missed that Armonty Bryant was suspended again. It's OK, the Lions didn't need to improve their pass rush with strong players like him ready to step up this year

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21 hours ago, pyrotigers said:

Somehow I missed that Armonty Bryant was suspended again. It's OK, the Lions didn't need to improve their pass rush with strong players like him ready to step up this year

Bryant is too stupid to play in the NFL. If he couldn't get himself on the field this year, he is never going to figure it out. The Lions should just cut him and bring in another DE because Bryant is not reliable. It is a real shame because I believe he is very talented.

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Xanders Gone, per ESPN.

 

Quote

 

Alden GonzalezESPN Staff Writer 

Can confirm that the Rams are hiring former Broncos GM Brian Xanders, as first reported by NFL.com. He will be senior personnel executive, and it sounds like this was a hire that was made by Rams GM Les Snead. Xanders and Snead were on the Falcons together from 1997 to 2007. Xanders spent the last five years as a senior personnel executive with the Lions.

 

 

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14 hours ago, MAROTH4MVP said:

He has been gone from the Lions since May.

Details...Details.   :)

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Besides Stafford you could make a case that Decker and Ansah were the two Lions that we could least afford to lose this year.   Hopefully it is nothing serious. 

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3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Does this change anyone's mind about shopping him around on the trade market? My belief on this is well defined, I wanted Quinn to start shopping day one and see what kind of market was available.

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19 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Does this change anyone's mind about shopping him around on the trade market? My belief on this is well defined, I wanted Quinn to start shopping day one and see what kind of market was available.

If he doesn't want to be here and refuses to sign a contract, than yes. I do fantasize about having Connor Cook instead of Stafford. 

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1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Does this change anyone's mind about shopping him around on the trade market? My belief on this is well defined, I wanted Quinn to start shopping day one and see what kind of market was available.

No.  Needs to be paid. 

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2 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Does this change anyone's mind about shopping him around on the trade market? My belief on this is well defined, I wanted Quinn to start shopping day one and see what kind of market was available.

nope.  he's a franchise qb.  you dont get rid of one of those.

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If you can predict the rising price of QBs, surely other GMs can predict it as well, so I don't think there is a market inefficiency here to take advantage of. 

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17 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Does this change anyone's mind about shopping him around on the trade market? My belief on this is well defined, I wanted Quinn to start shopping day one and see what kind of market was available.

Tater gonna Tater ;)

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I posted about this back in early 2016 and wanted to updated the stats for this past season. I guess I'm not really trying to prove that this is a reason why they shouldn't pay him $28-$30-$32 million a season, just more or less posting because it is an interesting statistic.


Football Outsiders, Defensive Efficiency Stat

Football Outsiders has a stat called Defensive Efficiency that ranks total defensive performance by a team over the entirety of a season. From 2011-2016 the Lions have played a total of 42 games where the opposing teams defense ended up ranked in the top 15 (at season's end). The team as a whole, and Stafford's performances have been pretty subpar, with the exception of last season.

In 2011 they played defenses with a total end of season rank at 13th, 4th, 3rd, 8th, 4th.

2011 Totals: Record 2-3. Average QBR of 33.14. Average completion% of 57.48%. 10 TD, 6 INT.

In 2012 they played defenses ranked 7th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 8th, 4th, 8th, 6th, 12th, 1st.

2012 Totals: Record 2-8. Average QBR of 46.02. Average completion% of 58.20%. 13 TD, 14 INT.

In 2013 they played defenses ranked 2nd, 5th, 8th, 7th, 8th, 4th, 6th.

2013 Totals: Record 1-6. Average QBR of 45.80. Average completion% of 54.98%. 12 TD, 11 INT.

In 2014 they played defenses ranked 15th, 5th, 6th, 7th.

2014 Totals: Record 0-4. Average QBR of 33.15. Average completion% of 53.38%. 2 TD, 4 INT.

In 2015 they played defenses ranked 15th, 1st, 6th, 3rd, 15th, 7th, 9th, 12th, 9th, 6th.

2015 Totals: Record 2-7. Average QBR of 45.61. Average completion% of 63.74%. 13 TD, 10 INT.

In 2016 they played defenses ranked 4th, 15th, 9th, 8th, 8th, 12th, 2nd.

2016 Totals: Record 5-2. Average QBR of 69.01. Average completion% of 67.36%. 12 TD, 2 INT.

Since 2011 (discounting Stafford's first two seasons lost to injury), the team and coaching staff that are as equally or more to blame for a loss as their QB Matt Stafford, are 12-30 against defenses ranked in the top 15 of Football Outsiders Defensive Efficiency metric. The team played a total of 42 games against top 15 opponents over that time period.

His average QBR, in 42 games played against top 15 ranked defenses is 49.81 QBR. His average completion% is 59.19%. He's thrown for 62 TD's and 47 INT's. He has a TD to INT ratio averaging approximately 1.48 TD's (per game) to 1.12 INT's (per game).

As I said when I posted this prior, you can chalk up his subpar play against good defenses to being the fault of someone or something else. Whether it is Lombardi's play calling (who I have said was a significant problem for Stafford and this team on several occasions), Scott Linehan, the o-Line play, blocking scheme, poor receiver play, dropped passes, lack of a running game, errant penalties, injuries, etc., etc. I think it is fair to point out all of these problems that Stafford has faced, but his play against good to great defenses has to come under some serious scrutiny too.

Last season's performance, while very good against top defenses, is also not the mean for his career. When I posted these numbers previously, I did try to use the defensive efficiency metric as an example as to why we shouldn't make the guy the highest paid player in the league. This time around, I'm not so sure I want to use these stats in that manner given that Bob Quinn has committed himself to making Stafford his franchise QB moving forward.

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We always talk about Stafford vs top competition and its the silliest argument with just a complete lack of context IMO. Good teams beat "Stafford" because the most talented TEAM wins in the NFL most of the time. Stafford, as a franchise QB, gives you an edge in terms of catching up to top teams in overall talent, as QBs are more valuable than other individual players at other positions, but he cannot make up the gap that is created across a 53 man roster and 22 man starting lineup, period. Its like asking why Michael Jordan didn't win his 63 point playoff game. Good thing the Bulls didn't see trading Jordan as the solution to that problem though.

Stafford averages a running game and a defense in the bottom 10 and I believe he has had a top 10 of either a grand total of once. He has also had major issues with his receivers throughout his career. Nobody opposite Calvin between 2011 and Tate, Calvin retiring, Ebron, Young and Broyles struggling as high picks etc. And we all sit here and rip on the OL every Sunday in the fall in the game threads, so I'm just not really sure what we are arguing about in terms of Stafford. Build the roster around him or you will trade him, add a few assets and you will become the Jaguars. THat roster is loaded and they can't even get themselves out of top 10 draft position because they can't find a ******** QB.

Move on from the fantasy my friend.

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