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Deleterious

2017 Michigan Football

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

And it isn't like Stanford doesn't send guys to the NFL.  If someone dominates in Palo Alto, they are getting drafted similar to if they dominate in Ann Arbor.

No disagreement. If you dominate at any power five school, you are going to get noticed just fine by NFL teams.

I am just speaking more to the general hype and deference that might come from playing for a team that is more highly regarded. 

I think that type of thing can make a difference. But at the end of the day, I think it simply comes down to which coaches you prefer to play for. 

I don't see many things associated with Stanford that would make it more appealing to a star athlete with pro aspirations. It could be equivalent, sure, but I was mostly just curious why it would be a slam dunk decision in favor of Stanford. 

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8 minutes ago, Shelton said:

No disagreement. If you dominate at any power five school, you are going to get noticed just fine by NFL teams.

An edge Harbaugh has for offensive players is that he still tries to play more of a pro style. At least for O linemen and QBs that is a recruiting advantage over a lot of other schools for players with NFL aspirations because it does exactly get them a better look by pro scouts.

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Of course, I think major college football as we know it is living on borrowed time. Did you guys see the recent CTE report? I don't think it was posted about as the topic has already been kicked around but that was some pretty dramatic data. Some kind of big changes have to be coming. I think that is inevitable. How close the game that emerges will be to what we are used to is the question.

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33 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I don't see many things associated with Stanford that would make it more appealing to a star athlete with pro aspirations. It could be equivalent, sure, but I was mostly just curious why it would be a slam dunk decision in favor of Stanford. 

To be fair, I only said that would be my choice, were I in the position.

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6 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

To be fair, I only said that would be my choice, were I in the position.

I would have loved to go there before 100 million people lived around the Bay. I'm not sure there are many places in CA I would want to do more than visit anymore. Like JB said - I'm one of those people who hate people - esp in large numbers.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

To be fair, I only said that would be my choice, were I in the position.

Yes, but you are not a 5 star defensive end so that's why I was looking for clarification. Of course, the discussion morphed into something else.

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I'm still not on board the concern train about football as we know it changing dramatic due to head injuries. 

I think the likely result is going to be better technology to improve safety. More strict protocol in response to hits to the head. Maybe restrictions on contact in practice. Maybe greater penalties for helmet to helmet contact. But at end of the day, games are still going to be 11 guys with helmets on running into 11 other guys with helmets on. 

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11 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I'm still not on board the concern train about football as we know it changing dramatic due to head injuries. 

I think the likely result is going to be better technology to improve safety. More strict protocol in response to hits to the head. Maybe restrictions on contact in practice. Maybe greater penalties for helmet to helmet contact. But at end of the day, games are still going to be 11 guys with helmets on running into 11 other guys with helmets on. 

If I had to guess, it would be that soon someone will develop a scan technique or biochemical technique that provides some measure on short term exposure so they will be able to profile each player season to season and that will drive the response in terms of rules, equip, even eligibility, etc.

It's true that the data set was self-selected, so not very useful as incidence data, but it was still scary bad.

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4 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

If I had to guess, it would be that soon someone will develop a scan technique or biochemical technique that provides some measure on short term exposure so they will be able to profile each player season to season and that will drive the response in terms of rules, equip, even eligibility, etc.

Perhaps. 

I could also see them shorten games or reduce the number of plays that can be run. I could see them eliminate the kickoff. Harder to see eliminating the punt because so few are returned and there is still a big advantage to be lost and gained based on the result of a punt. 

On an unrelated note, I wouldn't mind seeing the extra point go away. Just give 7 points for a touchdown, and allow the team to elect to forfeit the extra point and go for 2 if they choose. 

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2 hours ago, Shelton said:

Yes, but you are not a 5 star defensive end so that's why I was looking for clarification. Of course, the discussion morphed into something else.

Well, I guess I am not understanding how if I were a 5* defensive end it would necessarily or likely change the calculus of what I would value in a school.

I get that becoming an NFL player could change my priorities, but unless I thought I would be significantly helped on that front at UM, I would choose Stanford.

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If I were a FB player I'd 100% choose Michigan because Harbaugh and I'm a lifetime fan.

If I weren't, I'd have to consider other things like weather and distance from family. As an undergrad I had no idea what I wanted to do, so in retrospect academics wouldn't make a large difference. I think having easier gen ed classes would actually be an overall plus until I figured that out.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Well, I guess I am not understanding how if I were a 5* defensive end it would necessarily or likely change the calculus of what I would value in a school.

I get that becoming an NFL player could change my priorities, but unless I thought I would be significantly helped on that front at UM, I would choose Stanford.

Players have to pass through a pre-admission process to be offered by Stanford, or at least they did going back to Zeke Motta's recruitment a decade ago.  It is crazy that they ended up recruiting him, IMO, after they found out what he got on the ACT--but that is an off-board conversation.

If I were smart enough to both play and cut it academically at Stanford and Michigan, I would likely highly consider Harvard, Yale or Princeton if I came from a family with a low enough income to get a needs-based scholly.  But that's just the mediocre old man in me talking.

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Well, I guess I am not understanding how if I were a 5* defensive end it would necessarily or likely change the calculus of what I would value in a school.

I get that becoming an NFL player could change my priorities, but unless I thought I would be significantly helped on that front at UM, I would choose Stanford.

Perfectly reasonable. I guess my point is that I think UM presents a better opportunity to become an NFL player, or become a higher drafted NFL player, relative to stanford. But I admitted earlier my view was biased. I'm trying to look at it objectively. If it were five years ago, I'd probably choose Stanford over UM. 

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yeah - given the maximum reasonable thickness of a helmut and the velocity of the players there an irreducible (de)acceleration problem.

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11 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

yeah - given the maximum reasonable thickness of a helmut and the velocity of the players there an irreducible (de)acceleration problem.

Technology will never surprise me. 

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6 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I remember reading about this helmet before. Apparently it is now rated the #1 helmet and is available in the NFL this year for the first time. 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/the-safest-helmet-in-football-is-set-to-make-its-nfl-debut-next-season/

for most of their history, the design criteria for helmets was force distribution rather than deceleration, so we are starting from a point that is probably far from optimized in that direction. That argues there should be plenty of room for improvement from where helmets were before awareness of CTE.

OTOH - while technology may not surprise us, it is not going to surprise physics either.

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11 hours ago, mickeyb105 said:

If I were smart enough to both play and cut it academically at Stanford and Michigan, I would likely highly consider Harvard, Yale or Princeton if I came from a family with a low enough income to get a needs-based scholly.  But that's just the mediocre old man in me talking.

I have three friends who went to an Ivy (a couple who went to Princeton together, one to Yale).  All three starred in a sport, with the two men getting drafted and playing professionally (neither made it out of the minors), and the woman may have been the most accomplished athlete of the three.

All are now in their mid 40's and their station in life is similar to mine, so in that regard (relative to myself), where they got their degree didn't matter a lot.  OTOH, the networking opportunities they have as a result are insane.  All three have friends from campus that went onto become highly successful (and a few cases famous) individuals, some in business, some in entertainment, some in politics, and they could leverage those relationships at least some at a minimum if they were inclined.  And their children are legacies, so that is a small leg up as well.

Would an 18 year-old value any of that?  Probably not.  Is it a big deal?  My sense of it is it could be, but probably not.  And it certainly is possible a top athlete at U of M is likely to be exposed to the same sort of individuals on campus, so maybe the key was to be a top athlete rather than their alma mater.  I can't say the following with any kind of certainty, but I suspect those Ivies and Stanford offer extra in that regard.

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13 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I don't know if it can be addressed by helmet technology.

I've thought it could be addressed by regressing in helmet technology. If they went back to the old school leather helmets, players would naturally stop using their heads as weapons & be more careful.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Yeah, as a boss of mine once said, you can't design around physics.  Meaning there are fundamental limitations on what any design can achieve.

Of course. But things can still be substantially improved. This particular helmet appears substantially better according to the test data. 

I also think the smart mouth guard that can measure impact can be a useful tool.

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2 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I have three friends who went to an Ivy (a couple who went to Princeton together, one to Yale).  All three starred in a sport, with the two men getting drafted and playing professionally (neither made it out of the minors), and the woman may have been the most accomplished athlete of the three.

All are now in their mid 40's and their station in life is similar to mine, so in that regard (relative to myself), where they got their degree didn't matter a lot.  OTOH, the networking opportunities they have as a result are insane.  All three have friends from campus that went onto become highly successful (and a few cases famous) individuals, some in business, some in entertainment, some in politics, and they could leverage those relationships at least some at a minimum if they were inclined.  And their children are legacies, so that is a small leg up as well.

Would an 18 year-old value any of that?  Probably not.  Is it a big deal?  My sense of it is it could be, but probably not.  And it certainly is possible a top athlete at U of M is likely to be exposed to the same sort of individuals on campus, so maybe the key was to be a top athlete rather than their alma mater.  I can't say the following with any kind of certainty, but I suspect those Ivies and Stanford offer extra in that regard.

To be sure, the streets aren't going to be paved in gold just because of an Ivy League education.  But what you said about the networking seems pretty true.  There are careers and personality types that get more mileage out of the connections than others.

Take two guys from where I live now who come from prominent families.  Both ended up playing OC at Princeton, but 15 years apart.  The older guy was a legit academic (was always in the local paper for national and state awards) who could have gotten into Princeton without football.  The younger guy (had two Michigan alum and two ND Alum as g'parents) would have had to prep somewhere without football (1300 SAT, but crazy intangibles).  

The older guy played four years and then went to FSU Law because his family has went to school there for generations and his brother and two uncles played football there.  He's a local attorney grinding out solid money, but nothing crazy.  Dude just likes being around his extended family, fishing/hunting, and going to FSU games in the fall.  His brother, who went to FSU for undergrad and law, is probably out-earning him better than 2:1 in Palm Beach because he puts his career first.

The younger guy quit football after his freshman year due to a beef with his OL coach.  The HC stood behind his position coach because that's what HC's do.  The guy stuck around Princeton and became president of his eating club (a big thing there, as they don't have the Greek system) his senior year.  He's got a family name that means something in both Detroit and the professional sports world, but he doesn't drop it.  His job at AB in St. Louis started last week, making about 3/4 what the older guy is making 12 years out of LS.  

Same undergrad education, different personalities, different (but incomplete) results.  The older guy will hardly ever use his Princeton connections because he is extremely happy living and dying in the town he was born in.  The younger guy also loves his hometown, but has dreams that reach beyond catching Grouper, Pompano and Mahi in his spare time (the older guy has a freezer-full of the best fish nearly year-round).  Those Princeton connections won't be heavily leaned on for his future success, but he sure does have plentiful well do draw from when and if he ever needs it.

Every personal situation is different for sure, and my bias leans heavy towards seeing my kids graduate somewhere that provides a very strong network.  That is 100% due to my own piecemeal education that left me with a healthy disdain for the university name on my diploma.  Of course, if my diploma had a block "M" on it I would be over the moon as a lifelong Michigan fan and admirer. 

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It is really hard to say what direction any individual's life may go.

I am reasonably successful as an engineer and taking it all in, I tend to doubt I would be any more successful or a better engineer had I gone to Michigan or MIT, both of which I passed over to go to Detroit because it effectively was free. I came from a large family and my dad (who also graduated from Detroit) was recently laid off at the time - and ended up being underemployed the rest of his life.

I wouldn't do it over, but I would be lying if I didn't wonder periodically where I would be had I gone to MIT.  Impossible to know.

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